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A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx
I completely agree with everyone saying that Warren shouldn't run since she lacks charisma and presence for POTUS.

Hillary is the odds on favorite, with Cuomo and Patrick as the ones who would fight it out should she choose not to run. Feingold I don't think wants to run again since he's working on getting v. United overturned full time. Booker has a lazy eye and hasn't won a state wide election while Biden I think is a bit too old for the seat since he will be 2 years older than Reagan when he takes office so that means almost a full second term being senile where Hillary will miss out on that by a year.

No matter what though I think Schweitzer should totally be on the ticket of whoever makes it to the main event so he gets some national exposure and if that ticket wins (which it really should unless Europe falls or Major War) it will prime him for 2024.

On the GOP side... really it all depends on if they double down on the crazy where you're looking at Bachmann, Palin, Paul, Perry, Ryan, or Santorum or if they actually pull their head out of their rear end (lol) you're looking at Jeb, Christie, Huntsman, McDonnell, Pawlenty, Rubio, or Walker. Out of all of them only Christie, Huntsman, and Rubio would be able to squeak out a win against Cuomo or Patrick since everyone on both sides would get slaughtered by Hillary.

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A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

jeffersonlives posted:

Huntsman is more likely to get another appointment from Obama than he is to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2016. There's a fairly long list of plausible nominees at this point, he isn't one of them.

Huntsman is the "Dark Horse" candidate that if (and that's a huge bunch of if's like getting a weak field to go up against and a billionaire sugar daddy out of the gate to crush the opposition early) could actually make a solid GOP run based on triangulation from the right. I know full well that him being the nominee only has like a 5% chance of happening, but that 5% kinda scares me since after that it would be a true horse race. Same thing for Schweitzer though as far as actually getting the nomination in 16. I would put it at only a 5% chance but still everything that would cause him to get the nod are pretty much the exact same things that would give Huntsman the nod from the other side which is why I think they would make solid choices for the VP pick since they are pretty well respected across the isle and would flip a lot of the opposition party that feel marginalized.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

ufarn posted:

Is there any wisdom at all about choice of VP candidates? Maybe we should just throw that out the window, if the DNC apply their sabremetrics to choosing the optimal VP candidate.

Is it commonly held that Biden was chosen, because he provided a foreign policy profile for Obama, or what made the deal?

No matter who's at the top of the ticket I really do hope the democrats have the foresight to have Schweitzer on the bottom of it since he would be the final death-nail in the GOP demographic coffin they are facing. Really, with his good-ole-boy persona combined with his progressive policies I think you could see a win in the very high 300's to even 400 EV range. His problem right now (and in 2016) is that he's just not well known enough on the national stage to get the nomination without some sort of highly viable position other than Governor of one of the least populated states.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

factorialite posted:

(Jenna) Bush/ (Mary) Cheney in '16.

DOOOO ITTTTT

I don't know about the two of them running in 16, but if that ticket ever did materialize with them as Dems it would be the biggest political "No, gently caress You Dad!" of all time.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

greatn posted:

What is so frightening about Cuomo exactly, apart from him being bland and middle of the road?

Think of Obama, then add in not just less of a backbone, but actively stabbing left leaning dems in the back and jumping at the chance of working with republicans.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Gatts posted:

Can we get Bill Clinton as Veep? I want him in office somehow.

Can he be the press secretary? He's charismatic as gently caress and will literally pimp slap reporters for asking loaded right wing talking point questions.

Plus, that job is like 90% dude that explains stuff.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Mitchicon posted:

Can we please make this man president in 2016? I just want to see him slap Putin on the back and chuckle.

Only if it's after he tells Putin The Aristocrats joke.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

ManifunkDestiny posted:

Saying "there are multiple sources of authority on that particular topic" is a pretty good median ground and solid answer.

e: also, in that above poll, a plurality of respondents don't think or are unsure that Genesis and science are in conflict with one another

It literally takes one college level geology class to disprove creationism and young earth theory.

One loving geology class.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Demiurge4 posted:

I think she's effectively mobilising public oppinion against banks, while at the same time antagonizing entrenched interests that will hurt her personal prospects. Someone must really have moved heaven and earth to get her on the committee.

Wasn't that Reid though? I mean as much poo poo as we all give him here (and really he deserves every pit of it) isn't he the one that assigns comity membership to democratic freshman senators since he's the highest ranking on in the senate?

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Shear Modulus posted:

I think Reid (and by extension the Democratic leadership) is willing to acknowledge that having a political superstar as a freshman senator is a rare thing, and you don't want to get in her way and hurt her chances of winning future elections. Warren is definitely a political superstar; at this point I'd say her meteoric rise to popularity is really only comparable to that of Obama.

I really hope you don't mean this, because even as someone who support the poo poo out of her and what she stands for she is by no means a superstar politician like Obama is. For one thing, she actually kid of sucks when it comes to giving speeches (outside of the DNC one she gave they have all been flat and forced) and isn't a solid debater like Obama and most other politicians are which is why she had to run in one of the bluest states in the nation to become a senator. I mean yes she is one of only 100 senators and her being there is a huge win for progressives, but she got there by beating Scott "I only won the special election in the first place because my opponent insulted the Red Sox in MA" Brown.

Honestly it probably has much, much more to do with the fact that Wall St. after the 08 election turned on Obama and the democrats big time by backing the poo poo out of the tea party in 2010 & 2012 to try and dismantle Dodd Frank and her being on the banking comity now is a giant middle finger from the democrats for that. I have no doubt in my mind that if they switch their support back to team D (and they are all starting to) she will be marginalized just enough to be the one that talks a lot of poo poo on the financial industry but won't be able to pass anything so they can feed at the sweet, sweet trough of Wall St. and it's money.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Zero_Grade posted:

Well shoot, I'm liking her more already. The interview was kinda silly but made her sound good, not that that's very surprising considering it was a softball. Plus at 46, she could be in the hunt for the Presidency for a real long time.

Now if only she'd been drinking say, Yuengling instead of Bud (or a microbrew but baby steps).

I think most politicians holding national office or those that have aspirations to do so (i.e. every senator) drink Bud since it's the most popular domestic beer even though it's loving horrible so they can appeal to the broadest audience.

Hell, Obama is guilty of this to and given the awesome micro brews that the Whitehorse is making I doubt he drinks that watered down redneck beer poo poo in private.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

So it's a TV thing and not a party thing.

Given the GOP's relationship with :foxnews: I think it's one in the same at this point.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Radish posted:

Man we must be real assholes to deserve that.

Do you know nothing about our foreign policy for like the last 60 years? We're like king assholes of gently caress mountain.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

SpecialK2 posted:

So is anyone out of this group likely to be Hillary's VP choice?

I hope it's Biden, but that's just so the Onion Biden can keep being a thing. :allears:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

mdemone posted:

Clinton/Castro would flip Texas :getin:

Maybe not, but it would give him more national exposure than just being a speaker at the DNC with letting him skip the cluster gently caress that is the Texas state house to get there for a run at the seat himself in 2024.

Jesus, can you imagine if that happened? First black president, followed by the first female president, followed by the first hispanic president, all of whom would be democrats.

:getin: indeed

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Tempest_56 posted:

Booker absolutely should wait. The GOP noise machine is already going to be bad enough in 2016 without them getting to say 'hey look! They're putting up ANOTHER black northern senator who hasn't even completed his first term in office!' Booker needs more time for Obama to be out of the limelight before running, otherwise he won't be Cory Booker for President, he'll just be Obama 2.0 and will have (for good or for ill) all of Obama's positions and opinions grafted onto him by both sides.

If Hilary runs you could also have a scenario of the next three presidents being democrats just based upon the way demographics are shaping up right now.

Obama, Clinton, Booker, Castro has a nice ring to it. :getin:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

SedanChair posted:

It rings like a bell with "GOLDMAN SACHS" printed on the side.

You act like that wouldn't happen no matter who the next 4 presidents are or something.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Alter Ego posted:

I would enjoy seeing Scott Brown torn apart on a national stage, though.

Sadly we as a society feel that gladiatorial combat is savage in this day and age, but I completely agree. :hist101:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

mcmagic posted:



Obama is also to the right of both Clinton and Carter.

Looking at this, Obama appears to be to the left of Johnson who instituted both the Great Society and Civil Rights legislation. Is his rightward bent just a product of escalating the Vietnam War or something because both those programs are drastically left of anything Obama has even hinted at trying to accomplish, let alone pass.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Yes, that's part of what I meant. Both Castro and Cruz are new political figures outside of Texas, but for some reason Castro is way over performing his national visibility (Cruz is over performing as well, but to a much smaller degree than Castro). It's just surprising, even notorious self-promoter, frequent national news participant, and fellow mayor Cory Booker is only about half as visible as Castro.

The most logical reason I could think of is that Castro gets a lot of coverage in Latino media, but other than Univison there isn't really a major national united Latino media entity. So, I have no idea why this mayor with a very limited national presence is so much more visible than other Latino politicians nationwide; especially among people who are not politically tuned in.

Castro also just had a fairly public response for the racist reactions to Sebastian de la Cruz preforming the National Anthem during the NBA finals so that may explain more people knowing who he is and viewing him favorably in a poll taken yesterday when the finals just wrapped up just 11 days before hand.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Joementum posted:

He's running.


Rick Perry doesn't mis-speak, you just misunderstand.

Rick Perry is seriously as dumb as Ralph Wiggum.

http://youtu.be/8iSD9lPVY6Q?t=11s

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

I've made a huge mistake.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Cheekio posted:

There's a joke to be had here about God not being allowed to vote, but it escapes me.

Well I haven't seen any documentation proving he even exists, let alone having legal residency in this country so of course he can't vote.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

serewit posted:

I hope he brings the sword to a debate.

West sighed as he drew his katana, and swung it wildly next to the head of the man he was interrogating.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Puella Magissima posted:

It's a shame that :newt: is no longer relevant.

How can you say the leader (possibly) of the civilizing forces is no longer relevant.

Actually, now that I think about it everyone should start calling him irrelevant more often.

I mean last time it happened we got this loving gem. :allears:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Raskolnikov38 posted:

Well that's not going to happen but the next best thing is! Not only is CNN bringing back crossfire, they're making :newt: the new host of it. He's not going away yet.

If he doesn't bring back Lincoln / Douglas style debates on that format then I will be sorely disappointed.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

The X-man cometh posted:

Conversely, i know someone who came back from a $20,000 hunting vacation in Alaska and insisted he was middle class.

I think the problem is that what most people think of as middle class consists of the middle 90% of the income spectrum because in SF/LA/NY/CHI being below the top 5% of income earners nationally but above the 50% mark (hell above the 80-90% mark) usually means you actually are middle class... and that's where most of the population lives. $20,000 may seem like a poo poo load of money to a lot of people, but that's actually the exact amount that my wedding and honeymoon cost my wife and I when we were married... which was actually on the cheep side compared to what I know some of my friends have spent on theirs. And we're planning on taking a huge 2 week European vacation of a lifetime when she graduates from grad school that will be like $15-20k.

So if that hunting trip was a weekend... then yeah gently caress him he's rich. If it was for a week or over then he either took a vacation of a lifetime... or he takes those every year or two and is actually rich.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

double negative posted:

The phrase "middle class" rolls off of politicians' tongues so smoothly and easily now that it's pretty tone deaf, even for someone like Santorum, to balk at using.


I don't think it has as much to do with too many people being from expensive cities as much as it has to do with a general distaste as identifying oneself as wealthy. Or, I don't think that there are so many people that fit into that category to really contribute to our national delusion re: how many of us are actually middle class. Most of the really rich people I've ever met only acknowledged it unintentionally or really opaquely, and a couple notable examples contrived more working-class personas because their wealth made them uncomfortable.

As for that hunting trip, regardless of how often you do it, $20,000 is in fact a lot of money and being able to spend it on a vacation is unimaginable pretty drat wild. Even that kind of money for a wedding seems insane to me, but I know that's something of a different bag. I don't know how your friends get down (how would they identify themselves, class-wise, if they are spending 20k+ on a wedding) but you did mention your mother lives in a house worth over a million, so I figure you probably aren't hurting for money.

I would totally call my family and myself upper middle class (i.e. combined annual income between $80-150k) to where we don't really stress over money that much (we still do occasionally and have to watch our spending like a hawk), but none of us drive luxury cars... well my wife drives a smart car which is technically a mercedes but I don't think that counts. We also live in OC which has a high as hell cost of living (seriously $2k for housing a month for 2 people) and I'm well aware that in almost the rest of the nation we'd be considered rich. Also, that 20k wedding was something I saved up for over the course of several years to do, and the vacation will be saved up over a 3 year period.

I can safely say my wife and I have never had to worry about money for food which puts us sadly in the top 1/2 of the nation which is actually really loving pathetic since no one should go hungry in the richest nation on earth and why I'm constantly voting to give myself tax increases.

e: vvv I totally agree that while I don't consider myself part of the upper class, my families income bracket makes me solidly upper middle class given those numbers. vvv

A Winner is Jew fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Aug 14, 2013

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

Name that GOP hopeful!
John Bolton

So he's now right on something a total of Dick Morris +1 then?

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Tempest_56 posted:

Biden would probably be a bit better than Clinton (given my understanding of his legislative history), but he really doesn't stand much of a chance. He's going to be 74 come 2016, has been crushed the other two times he's run and isn't going to be getting Obama's nod of approval to boost him this time. Without Hillary in the race he'd be a strong contender but would likely eventually fall to someone like Cuomo or the like. With Hillary, he's got a Don Quixote shot at best.

As it's been said a bunch of times it's Hillary's if she wants it since her only competition is Biden who age will be a concern and Christie if he makes it past the horror show that will be the GOP primary. With that being said...

Tempest_56 posted:

With Hillary, he's got a Don Quixote shot at best.

There is no need for Sorkin to be brought into this.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Kaal posted:

This little comment makes it pretty clear that the author was intending on doing a hit-piece that uses the Clintons to drat the American political parties for being money machines. While that might be a valid point (though targeting the Democrats instead of the Republicans for that is pretty eye-rolling) I can't see any upside for the left to let it go forward.

And it's not that I disagree with him going after the Clinton's with this since Hillary is a shoe-in for running right now. 1 year of research, a few months of filming / editing, and he's got almost a full year to shop around trying to get the most money from studio's for them to market and release it right as the election season is getting underway to get the most out of their return. The closest potential republican candidate right now is Christie and other than being an rear end in a top hat and Sandy most of the country doesn't know / care about him yet which means a ton less money from studios if he tried to sell them on his story.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

ReindeerF posted:

The Democrats should run Jeb Bush just to see what happens. "Hey, man, we believe about 90% of the same poo poo, but we bet you'll vote against this guy even though he's from your party!" America's government is basically just a bunch of people trolling one another anymore anyway. Why not?

I hate to break it to you, but the american government has pretty much always been about trolling people.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Joementum posted:

Yeah, Bernie should definitely run. At the very least it'll make the Democratic primary debates watchable instead of them being a snoozefest of Biden and Hillary agreeing with each other.

Speaking of Biden, he's taken to drunk dialing Iowa state Reps to congratulate them on their special election victories.


I'm sure it's a courtesy he extends to state-level Democrats from many state, like New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc.

No matter what happens, I really hope Biden just flat out refuses to leave the white house in 2016. He should just become the Wooderson of VP's. :swoon:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Alter Ego posted:

"Let me tell you about Supply-Side Jesus, Chuck...:haw:"

Also, screw that: if Al Franken becomes President I want Garrison Keillor for Press Secretary.

I would actually be alright with Norm MacDonald as press secretary.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

serewit posted:

I have no doubts that Biden wants Clinton to know it's not a coronation and he'd be stupid to not hedge his bets against her deciding not to run but three years out I simply can't see him going all-in on Queen High. I definitely think he's angling for some sort of position in a Clinton WH though (or, hell, VP).

I think everyone would be fine with Biden being the VP again...especially The Onion so they can have Diamond Joe wake up after an election bender only to find out the "chill black dude" he's been hanging out with for the last 8 years is now a "fine rear end MILF", and how he can't wait to "cruse with her up to Camp David in his Trans Am for some hot tub time".

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

crowfeathers posted:

On the other hand, ten years down the line we can have a Castro/Castro ticket and confuse everybody.

And 10 years is also around the time Texas turns blue because of demographics. :getin:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Alter Ego posted:

Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (Pescado)

This isn't a real difficult code to crack either. Also, I'd have made Pawlenty the Filet-O-Fish.

And if he ever considered Gingrich his code name could have been PlentyOfFish.

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx
Joe Biden needs to be installed as VP until he dies... which will probably be when he tries jumping his trans-am corvette over the Grand Canyon. :patriot:

A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

Sergg posted:

Although Hillary has a reputation as being a cynical power-grabber, she is a serious candidate and I have a lot of respect for her. She spent most of her life advocating for better healthcare access and children's rights.

She was gunning for national political office before she was ever married to Bill Clinton, and her legal briefs were majorly precedent-setting in the legal field of children's rights, which of course drew fire from conservatives who were worried that she was attacking 'traditional families'. Opinion polls have consistently found that people are often unable to effectively articulate why they dislike Hillary Clinton, and that exposure to her and her ideas causes more likeability.

To be frank I acknowledge that she does come with some baggage, but the vast majority of it is crazed right-wing BS created by the conservative media apparatus.

Not only that but the only person that has the fundraising and party connections even close to her is Biden, and he's not married to the most beloved former president that's still alive and can stump for him.

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A Winner is Jew
Feb 14, 2008

by exmarx

The Warszawa posted:

She had that last time, too - and Bill arguably did more harm than good forgetting that it's not a dogwhistle if everyone can hear it.

It really does seem sometimes that Bill Clinton is an exceptional campaigner except when he truly believes in the candidate he's stumping for.

In his defense, I don't think Bill ever met someone as charismatic himself like Obama is and that (along with the dog whistle) was what made those attacks backfire so spectacularly.

Also, I'm pretty sure her campaign staff not understanding how delegates work was the thing that really hosed her primary campaign.

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