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I think we're most likely to see Clinton, Warren, and Cuomo run for the Democrats in 2016. Cory Booker might try to make a run, but as the mayor of Newark he may feel he lacks the visibility. Like Obama in 2004, Booker made a notable speech at the DNC, which could be enough to convince him to run. I don't think Joe Biden wants to try to become president at age 73. The Republican choice depends on which direction the party moves in four years. If they decide to shift towards the centre and pick up Hispanic voters, we'll see Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, and Jeb Bush. If they decide to try for a True Conservative, expect Rick Santorum and maybe Sarah Palin. I expect Santorum will run no matter what, after his 2012 performance exceeded all expectations. Cain won't run again, considering the scandals that pushed him out of the race in 2012.
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Nov 7, 2012 21:02
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BootStrap posted:Comedy option is that Chris Christie has a conversion on the road to Asbury Park, drops 75 pounds and runs as a Democrat. That's not going to happen, but if Christie loses weight he could make a good run for a more moderate Republican party in 2016.
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Nov 7, 2012 21:31
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Mirthless posted:Realistically, a celebrity candidate who didn't get into politics independently is unlikely to ever get a serious bid at the office of President. I think the closest we've had to a real celebrity president other than war heroes was Reagan, and Reagan had spent years in politics independent of being a cowboy actor. I was thinking earlier that Oprah Winfrey is maybe the only celebrity who could pull it off, since she's a self-made billionaire with high popularity and she famously endorsed Obama back in 2006. I don't think she has any interest in running, though; there were calls for her to run six years ago, and she responded by endorsing Obama and pushing him to run. RembrandtQEinstein posted:I've said it once, I'll say it again. Amy Klobuchar is going to be the democratic nominee in 2016. Why? She's a good but not great senator, and co-sponsoring PIPA made her really toxic to young voters.
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Nov 8, 2012 19:13
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Hillary Clinton seems like such a lock for 2016 that I want to do a contrarian argument against it. I don't remember any time a candidate felt so sure to win four years in advance since, well, Clinton. For a non-incumbent you'd have to go back to the 1960s for such an easily predicted election. Does anyone else feel this way?
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Dec 13, 2012 19:42
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hobbesmaster posted:For the democrats, definitely. Since the republicans are not incumbent they may have some strange stuff come out of their primary. Especially since its not anyone's "turn" based on the last primary. Well, Rick Santorum but that'd be hilarious. Santorum could be the nominee in 2016 if the Republicans decide to make another hard-right shift because they weren't conservative enough. However, I think it's more likely the party will make a moderate shift. The left and right edge members of the party have been backing away from the feeding frenzy that will take place within two years. More Tea Partiers are being ousted by the recent shifts in the GOP, so it seems likely that the party apparatus will try a move to the centre-right.
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Dec 17, 2012 18:31
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Forgall posted:In practice, they don't actually disagree on anything important. Yeah, Ryan rejects the atheist parts of objectivism and Santorum rejects the charitable parts of Christianity.
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Dec 18, 2012 13:57
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Lycus posted:2002: Democrats received 45% of the votes and took 46.9% of the seats. It's a smaller effect than 2008, but it's the only election on that list where the party with a plurality did not get the most seats. That's significant because it means the gerrymandering had a much larger effect on political power than the other years. Cemetry Gator posted:The biggest thing that could help a politician like Christie in a national field is how he talks about compromising, and that's something that a lot of people want to see from their government. It hurts him a lot on the Republican side, since the Tea Party seems to live in a world where "Do it my way or no way at all" is a reasonable thing to say in a nation where 50% of the population disagrees with you on any given subject. The Republican party will probably have a backlash against the Tea Party over the next four years. We're seeing the beginning of it now, as growing numbers of Republicans renege on the no-tax plan and allow small compromises. Christie will look even better if there are attack ads from the primaries saying he's too willing to make compromises for the sake of his constituents.
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Dec 23, 2012 00:44
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Grandasaur Egg posted:I had no idea that families could sound like they always eat together at dinner? What does this even mean? Conservative and regimented to a fault.
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Dec 25, 2012 08:56
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ufarn posted:And here I thought we were only risking one Bush with Jeb, but it looks like another Bush is getting groomed for a political career. He's eligible in 2016 and so is Chelsea Clinton. We can reuse all the bumper stickers from 1992.
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Jan 14, 2013 03:38
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DynamicSloth posted:The Reince Priebus dream team supposedly put their heads together to come up with a solution to this whole losing the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections thing, this and paying Karl Rove's lost couch change to people to go to minorities and tell them how swell the GOP is is literally all he came up with. The 5 of the last 6 idea is overwrought, it's more of a statistical trick than a real sign of the current state of the GOP. Priebus is certainly concerned that the GOP are less popular, and the Democrats have more states locked down for 2016 than the Republicans. The Democrats only won 5 of the last 10 elections, which makes the GOP sound healthier than they are.
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Mar 19, 2013 19:13
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Skwirl posted:Even though she's going to be a similar age to what McCain was in 2008, McCain just seemed older. There was stuff like refusing to rule out use of force against Spain, or chanting "Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran." His injuries made him seem older, because he moved so slowly. Mitt Romney was only 7 years younger than McCain was when he ran, it looked like a difference of 30 years.
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Mar 5, 2014 03:41
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Since I want the Democrats to win, I really hope Sarah Palin runs for president as a third-party candidate. Unfortunately the American electoral system means that a candidate who wants to effect change has to go through the primaries or just create a spoiler effect.
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Mar 10, 2014 00:30
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Cease to Hope posted:Or run for a powerful position that isn't POTUS. You know, like a Senate seat. Right, good point. Math Debater posted:Anyone who's really serious about wanting to have a "political revolution" in the United States should not be phased by "spoiler" rhetoric and shouldn't wring their hands about the possibility of the lesser-evil party being defeated by the greater-evil party. 100,000 dead Iraqis would be inclined to disagree with this logic.
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Mar 10, 2014 00:42
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Wasn't Arkane suspected of being the weepy C-SPAN caller that went on and on about Huntsman during one of his primary defeats. I remember when Arkane said he was going to a debate and an article about the debate mentioned that Huntsman had "only one, extremely enthusiastic supporter."
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Mar 13, 2014 02:18
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Captain_Maclaine posted:As much as he is utterly insufferable whenever public education or climate change comes up (among other things), I must admit having a soft spot for Arkane due to his goldmined 2012 GOP Sheep Game thread, even though I didn't end up winning anything. That was a great thread. I would have won first prize if I had only predicted Repeal Obamacare as the GOP 2013 bill 
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Mar 13, 2014 22:16
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He could do the same trick Gary Johnson pulled and run for president not as Barack Obama from Illinois, but as Barack Obama from the District of Columbia.
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Apr 1, 2014 23:17
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StarMagician posted:What exactly are you referring to? Gary Johnson, presidential candidate from New Mexico, was barred from running as a Libertarian in Michigan because he was on the Republican primary ballot, so the Libertarians tried to run Gary Johnson, presidential candidate from Texas, with a plan to give all the votes for the latter Gary Johnson to the original Gary Johnson. A court barred them from doing so, and Gary Johnson from New Mexico got certified as a write-in candidate.
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Apr 2, 2014 02:13
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I understand the need to hold it in a swing state, but why the hell would you ever do something important in loving Cleveland?
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Apr 2, 2014 19:35
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Saw Sanders on Fox the other day, he's pretty clearly running for president. Hope he does the Dem primaries so there's an actual challenge from the left for Hillary. It'll make the primary more entertaining, but if Romney taught us one thing, it's that you can tack centre after defending your flank for months and most voters won't notice.
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Apr 3, 2014 04:21
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OneThousandMonkeys posted:Yeah the single off of Tubthumping is actually by far the worst song on the album. The 90's! It's the only song people like, sorry Grandpa.
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Apr 17, 2014 01:33
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:Add this guy to list of Presidential hopefuls I think it's hilarious that he wants to establish a traditional Christian theocracy, but his position on marijuana is to the left of Obama.
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May 3, 2014 17:17
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withak posted:IMO anyone not old enough to have been watching the news in the late 90s will be 100% mystified as to what all the frothing right-wing rage is about in re: The Clintons. Especially since the Republicans used to talk about how Obama was never capable of bipartisan cooperation, unlike that wonderful and helpful President Clinton.
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May 7, 2014 06:40
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Democrazy posted:I demand to see Newt vs. Hillary in the Lincoln-Douglas Debate style format. Newt is such a blowhard. I wish he'd recorded a bunch of Nixon Tapes so people could get behind the scenes of his candidacy.
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May 12, 2014 20:39
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FMguru posted:Political consultants have a very short shelf life. You have the pulse of the electorate for one or two cycles, and then society shifts and changes and your bag of tricks doesn't work any more. Carville is a good example - his rather economic populism worked in 1990 and 1992, and then Clinton was elected and the political order changed, and Carville's shtick didn't work any more (he wisely retired from campaign management to become a live-action cartoon on cable news). Dick Morris had a strong understanding of what the electorate wanted in the immediate post-Gingrich years, but after impeachment, his milkshake stopped bringing all the boys the the yard (unfortunately, he kept at the campaign prognostication, with increasingly hilarious results). I think Rove was well-suited to the 2000-era electoral landscape, but after Bush's second term implosion his poo poo has completely stopped working. The fact that he's still king of the hill as far as Republican electoral gurus is a real indictment of the GOP's internal workings - they're still clinging to the guy who gave them their last win way back over a decade ago instead of figuring out how to adapt to a swiftly changing electorate that has already kicked them square in the nuts twice. Does this mean Nate Silver will lose his magic, or is he OK because he's a math whiz and not just about the politics of elections?
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May 15, 2014 02:23
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computer parts posted:There would have been at most 2 presidents who could've had two terms between him and Reagan and one of those had 5-ish years. Shot, declined re-election, resigned, sucked, and sucked. It was indeed a hard time to be President. Johnson declined reelection, Nixon could have had two terms if he didn't do Watergate, Ford and Carter could have had more terms if they weren't so unpopular. This is very relevant to the 2020 election because I think it's not possible for a party to hold the White House for 16 years any more, since the last time that happened was under FDR and Truman. The last two men from the same party to serve two consecutive full terms were James Madison and James Monroe. I think voters just need to blame the incumbent for their problems sometimes and that's why I don't think the Democrats' current advantage can last forever.
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May 19, 2014 08:43
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Nixon did have two terms, unless you mean two full terms. Right, and so did Johnson. I did mean full terms, sorry.
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May 19, 2014 17:16
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Ohio is introducing the Head-Ripping-Off Machine. Not seriously. http://www.theonion.com/video/ohio-replaces-lethal-injection-with-humane-new-hea,36077/
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May 23, 2014 10:13
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Joementum posted:* He lays out a requirement that the VP be under 70, which would exclude Biden. How dare he exclude the Vice-President-For-Life.
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May 24, 2014 01:27
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mcmagic posted:It's so cute that Perry thinks he has a chance in 2016. Any time someone says "Candidate X has no chance", I find myself thinking, if not X then why should it be Y? This year the GOP has no Mitt Romney, no inevitable candidate, not even Mitt Romney. Jeb Bush could be that candidate in a world where his brother was never president, but now he's another candidate on the comedy pile.
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May 29, 2014 21:13
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mcmagic posted:Jeb isn't in the comedy pile the way Perry is though. I mean he's still taken seriously in the beltway for one. As long as Hillary is healthy enough to run, the idea of Bush v. Clinton is enough to make it funny.
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May 29, 2014 21:18
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A Bag of Milk posted:Whatever happened to the essay he was supposed to write about why he didn't want to be a Canadian citizen anymore? It's private. Not that he would have to write about how he hates hockey and double-doubles, it's probably just a quick note about how he wants to further his career in American politics by being solely an American citizen.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:05
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Chronojam posted:You don't remember the Doc Martens contest and the glorious Goon Boot? Is the Goon Boot a cowboy counterpart to Hulk Hogan Meat Shoes?
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Jul 7, 2014 23:20
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skaboomizzy posted:Christie would end up blowing his stack at some poor old lady at a Pizza Ranch in Iowa and that'd be it for him. I don't envy Christie's handler. You've got to keep him away from anything that might make him angry and make sure there are no unfortunately-timed photos of Christie standing on a bridge.
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Jul 9, 2014 06:39
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Captain_Maclaine posted:C:Downloads\perry\rickperryspresskit.rar: CRC failed in overcompensating03.png: Out of memory. 
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Jul 23, 2014 05:32
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Dapper Dan posted:Yeah, I love that picture. I've never seen a political photo that encompasses nearly every emotion of loss so nakedly before. Rick Santorum's phony smiles and cordiality, the open sadness of the little girl, the gently caress it look from the older daughter, staying strong from the mom and of course, 'I'm going to kill every last one of you fuckers that voted against me 'cause I'm a sociopath' look from the boy. It really is poetic and should continue to be remembered for all time. Because gently caress Rick Santorum. I think that's a deer-in-headlights look, kid's not sure how to react with all those lights and cameras around.
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Jul 26, 2014 21:45
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Ninjasaurus posted:Actually, that "two different endings" story is just a rumor and has been debunked. The idea that the two different endings story is false is also an incorrect rumour. The myth was that Godzilla wins in Japan, when in fact it's more of a tie. The Japanese and American versions are slightly different, where the Japanese version has Godzilla's roar at the end of the movie and some dialogue implying that he survived the battle, while the American ending does not. Abel Wingnut posted:What's Bill's Romney-like gaffe in that debate video? When he talks about knowing the owners of factories that go out of business, and not talking about the workers there. Romney had a similar gaffe when talking to a group of NASCAR fans and mentioning that some of his friends own NASCAR teams.
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Jul 29, 2014 06:49
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Romney 2020: Romney Was Right Twice
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Jul 30, 2014 06:50
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Full Battle Rattle posted:This could be a good David Lynch type thing. The nomination is announced. He's got it locked. He stares up in horror. How many times is this? 10? 100? He can't remember. It just keeps happening. And when he begs, pleads, the audience not to give him the nomination again the audience politely chuckles as though they just heard a folksy anecdote. By the end of the six hour run time there's a totally placid Charlie Rose getting screamed at by a man who's stuck like a needle in the record of time.  
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Jul 30, 2014 20:32
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Smudgie Buggler posted:What the hell do you guys mean when you say "hawk"? I ask as a non-American. Someone who is aggressive on foreign policy, as opposed to a "dove".
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Aug 11, 2014 09:40
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Erdogan is now willing to see an autonomous Kurdish state, provided they don't take any Turkish territory and allow Kurdish immigration from Turkey.
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Aug 11, 2014 22:24
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