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mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
On the other hand, living in a city full of pollution has its limits.

quote:

Choking smog all but shut down one of northeastern China's largest cities on Monday, forcing schools to suspended classes, snarling traffic and closing the airport, in the country's first major air pollution crisis of the winter.

An index measuring PM2.5, or particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5), reached a reading of 1,000 in some parts of Harbin, the gritty capital of northeastern Heilongjiang province and home to some 11 million people.

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mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Clipperton posted:

But the arts scene

Look, I smoke pipes, cigars, and cigarettes whilst attending shows by bands you haven't even heard of, so what's a little air pollution going to do? That's what I thought.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Is that post or pretax income used to calculate the 25 to 30%?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

etalian posted:

Somewhat off topic but in terms of ridership the Bay Area is number #2 for the US. Was a somewhat surprising statistic since I figured places like Chicago or Boston would be higher up on the list.

Where'd you find that at? The % ridership vs overall number distinctions would be interesting, especially when you look at different modes of transit (like regular buses which barely even count as mass transit).

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Plus, any savings in rent would be made up for with increased spending on food since there's no way to cook.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Lexicon posted:

Note that the American experience shows that the presence or absence of this rule essentially doesn't matter.

What do you mean by this? That the American experience just resulted in people declaring BK to get out of any deficiencies?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Luckily, my state's government has a program designed to partially offset this kind of suburban subusidy, but some revisions to the policy had to be made post-crisis.

What program is this?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Cultural Imperial posted:

Have you guys been following Australia's housing bubble? Sydney's house prices are up 16% in one year. Apparently it's all sustainable because it's different there. Also: Best Place On Earth.

Aren't Sydney and Melbourne somewhat geographically constrained by the national parks around them? They could still get much denser, of course, but I thought their suburbs couldn't spread in the same way.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Lexicon posted:

To be fair, these people, despite their tremendous fuckups and stupidity - will in fact have a reasonable retirement.

That's not true for a huge number of people who're just flat out poor, and don't have the pensions and such.

All these idiots did was squander the chance to be truly rich. They're still going to be very well off.

Solely because of their pensions. Without them they'd have no shot whatsoever.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

etalian posted:

Yeah basically the US real estate bubble is starting again since nothing was learned from the 2009 crash.

It started again 4 years ago. In Chicago, the "safe" (rich and white) neighborhoods have had values above the peak bubble prices of 07 for a year or two now.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

computer parts posted:

The data I'm seeing indicates this is false, unless you're only looking at most extreme values.

I'm not sure if 06 or 07 was higher, but that article's also 18 months old and referencing 2012 data. And even in that, Lakeview is down 4% from 06-13, Lincoln Park down 13.8%, North Center up a little, and Near North up 2.7%. Money has fled to safety. The surprising one is actually LP (although condos are up there). I'm surprised the north suburbs like Winnetka/Wilmette/Kenilworth aren't up though, it feels like they should be.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Cultural Imperial posted:

Mian and Sufi purpose a couple great ideas requiring government intervention to save the economy as a whole. I'm all for not loving around with massive book and busy cycles as they mostly stand to benefit the rich.

They propose a "shared value" type mortgage where the amount owing on the principal of your mortgage if directly linked to market values for housing. That's brilliant if you ask me.

You think a bank might think a little harder about lending money with that kind of policy?

So if housing prices fall, people owe less? But if they rise, people have to pay more? Since the public believes prices always go up that's a bad plan.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

400k down and it's like living for free!

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Rime posted:

You know, as much as we poo poo on the elders in here, young people are just as retarded.

Exhibit 1: Twenty-four, 6 year BA in psych and creative writing, headed to grad school for screenwriting. End result: entering the work force at 26/28 with no money and zero work experience.

Exhibit 2: Same age, same degree, headed to grad school for a master in arts-psych. No real work experience.

Both these people are still living off their parents dime for rent and tuition rather than student loans.

:downs:

Sounds like they're plenty smart. Enjoying their twenties at no cost and no debt.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

ocrumsprug posted:

Anyone soul-less enough to be an SFU poetry grad has a bright future as the CEO of a Canadian mining company ahead of them.


It would take some start up capital, but hear me out.

I am envisioning a pump and dump model for this investment.

1) Buy up some bumble-gently caress towns housing market
2) Release a lot of press releases about the new mine/LNG/TWF-staffed factory that we are opening there.
3) Sell the houses.

The best part is that it is probably legal as long as we weren't selling shares in the actual mine.Who's in? Should I take this to S-Mart?

Your step 1 is wrong. Don't buy up houses. Instead, be a condo developer and pre-sell the condo units because the only way to get in at the ground floor is to buy before the development happens! Then after transferring all the investor money to other shell companies, declare bankruptcy of your numbered shell company.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

OhYeah posted:

Wait, what? Isn't it considered "normal" that a household spends about a third of its net income on housing? No bank here would give a loan to buy a house if almost two thirds of your income would go into servicing that debt, especially considering the current, almost non-existent interest rates.

Also the zero down payment, although it's unclear if they cross collateralized other properties.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

triplexpac posted:

The housing market is completely normal, what are you talking about


Windsor!!!

The entire world wants a detached house with a yard but also a fast commute to a major city's downtown. Boo hoo.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Ceciltron posted:

Windows and sunlight make it really hard to j/o.

Not if you like an audience.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Assuming that helocs and mortgages and foreclosures work similarly to America (I'm a lawyer in the foreclosure field), it's a frustrating thing that Helocs have to be for a sizable amount of money or there's no real way to collect on defaults on them. Large heloc amounts absolutely encourage irresponsible spending but there's no way to offer small ones.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Helocs are explicitly tied to an asset- the house. The issue is that they're junior to the mortgage.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Bloody Hedgehog posted:

This my dad. Has owned trucks his entire life, all big monster huge things.

In the 36 years I've been alive, I've seen him "haul" things maybe four times. He never has an answer for why he needs a truck when he never actually hauls anything in it. We'll all know why of course, but he's too dumb to even come up with an excuse.

It's weird, because actual farmers/other people who need pickup beds and hauling capacity will use dippy little trucks like Ford Rangers to haul stuff around , because they typically don't need a F-series. And if they do need that, it'll be a slow as hell 250 or 350, not a souped up 350 that is incredibly shiny and chrome.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
The single most important bike infrastructure development would simply be to amend the law to say bicyclists can treat stop signs as yields and lights as stop signs to end the ridiculous whining from drivers.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

blah_blah posted:

It benefits the landlord significantly because on a fixed-term lease, the landlord can choose not to renew the lease and to force the tenant out at the end of it. This is not possible with a month-to-month tenancy, except under a relatively small number of situations (significant improvements, moving a family member in, etc).

Unless Canadian law is a lot different from USA, that's not right and the landlord can put anyone out at the end of the next month, rather than the end of the year.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

blah_blah posted:

Well, yes. Is it really surprising that Canadian law would be much more tenant friendly than American law? (I'm referring to British Columbia in particular, but I imagine it's similar in other provinces).

For a reference, see e.g. here: http://tenants.bc.ca/evictions/ -- these are the reasons that a landlord can end a month-to-month tenancy, and as long as the tenant is paying their rent and not providing cause, the only one that applies is "TWO MONTH NOTICE TO END TENANCY FOR LANDLORD USE OF PROPERTY", which basically requires you to either sell the property, do substantial renovations, or move in a family member for an extended period of time. You can't get rid of a tenant just because you want to. You also have to provide one month's rent in compensation, even if you have an acceptable reason.

Interesting, thanks.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Cultural Imperial posted:

While no one in Canada has said this, I love the American statements that millennials have a duty to get into and remain in a pit of crippling debt because the economy depends on it.

Holy loving poo poo if someone told me that I'd happily punch them in the loving face and vote Bernie Sanders.

Does anyone actually say this, and if so, do they know about all the govt backed loan repayment plans?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

I know of a lot of people going on about foreign ownership just on the assumption of there's not that many jobs in Vancouver can support the insane prices for homes so the sales have to come from somewhere.

I mean the average sale price of a single family home in the greater Vancouver area is what, 1.5 million? A quick calc online assuming a lovely down payment of 10% leaves $1,350,000 and over 25 years at 3% interest that's like almost $6,500/month in mortgage alone.

I mean with property tax and random house poo poo you could be pushing 100k a year in housing costs alone. How many jobs in Vancouver support that kind of living and yet sales keep increasing?

Salaries might not be all that relevant if it's a bunch of people with inherited money/trusts/etc buying up property. For instance, based on http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2015/05/23/247-wall-st-richest-towns-america/27791475/ the 5 richest towns are at 230k median income in NY, then 211 in IL, 207 CA, 205 TX, 173 TX. That goes nowhere - million dollar houses are probably bought by those with family money.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Rime posted:

Well guys, I've officially given up on trying to survive in this market. Follow along as I convert and live in a van, in Van.

Don't worry, I'll still be shitposting.

FYI there's a goon (alctel) living in Victoria who has had his sole residence be a boat for the last year or so. He barely got the heat working before November.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Regarding foreclosure and evictions, I actually do both those things in America and , depending on things as specific as your municipality, you can either live happily for a decade without paying a cent on your mortgage, can get paid 5 figures to move out, or you can lose it all in months without even knowing it happened.

The only industry that does well after a crash is foreclosures I bet. Look up your provinces laws and see if there's any articles about average time frames.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Furnaceface posted:

So we are on the verge of inviting the USA back into this hilarious housing bubble right?

The US market is a bit different- areas considered upscale prior to the last crash are back up to or above the 06-07 prices, and hot new areas are also way up. However, less desirable areas haven't recovered whatsoever. All the money has fled to "safe" places .

Origination is still poo poo despite the promises of stringency. You only need a job, rather just a pulse like before , to qualify for the max nonjumbo loan (417k, which is where all prices are trending to).

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Furnaceface posted:

So its a controlled stupid instead of the hands-off stupid we have up here.

Is there still a risk of another bubble developing even with the current set up?

There definitely is, but it won't be the same type of as all encompassing. There's also a bubble that's going to pop about 25-30 years from now, because a large number of the homeowners who got federal assistance for modifications have a balloon payment at the end of their new loan, which none of them will be able to pay and most don't realize is required.

But in the short term, if interest rates ever go back up no one's going to be able to sell their property for what they bought it for, let alone at a profit. It shouldn't have the huge domino effect though and will probably just hurt middle class whites, not everyone else.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
Yeah I agree with everything you're saying, I'm just not sure what can pop this without unemployment going back up or interest rates going up. Both seem to be flat and until some new shock happens nationally not much will change. I'm sure local areas will still bust though.

I do foreclosure law in Illinois and at the peak of filings there were 55k cases a year in the biggest county. Last year was under 25k and this year is even slower. I think Canada and Australia are going to blow up at least a few years before the USA.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Can you paste the text for those of us without a wsj subscription?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

jm20 posted:

hot tip, search from google, click the link

https://www.google.ca/search?q=swed..._sm=93&ie=UTF-8

Holy cow that's amazing. No wonder prices are so high in Stockholm. Do swedes not have a tradition of passing down property to the next generation?

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Freezer posted:

Just read the article and had the same reaction. This is pretty much renting from the bank with a contract to buy at a fixed price if you so wish, without the nasty landlord nuisances. Also, the banks eat all the inflation risk (granted, not much of that in Sweden). The world of 0%ish interest rates is pretty weird.

Yeah, with the tenant taking on responsibility for maintenance/repairs, so if they keep it in nice shape they can potentially profit down the road if it inflates in value. How wacky.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Wrap it up Canadailures :australia: :britain: cryingdoubledecktram.gif



The sad thing is that Chicago seems completely crazy and out of line (where I'm buying right now). I shudder to think of what any of those other markets are like

EvilJoven posted:

Illinois is so broke theyre giving lotto winners IOUs.

Also another politician went to jail!

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

attackmole posted:

Are the housing prices in Chicago actually good or are they just skewed down by stuff in scary Chiraq neighborhoods?

The good neighborhoods in Chicago are back above '07 values, it's just nowhere near as bad as cities with good weather. But it's more than twice as expensive as places like St Louis or MSP.

The other fun thing is that Illinois (state Chicago is in) is the only state in the USA where condo associations can evict you for failure to pay your assessments, including special assessments.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Buyers who are actually wealthy don't have to take out a mortgage.
[/quote]

They don't have to, but since they can borrow money at 2% or whatever on their house and then invest their cash elsewhere at a greater rate of return they might as well.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Jumpingmanjim posted:

White people are the worst though.

Actually, it's Australians. We can all agree on that.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin
There's no reason to ever believe anyone who says they didn't know the true interest rate that was likely in bold text at the top of the first page of whatever paperwork they ignored , unless they actually won a court case where they proved fraud (which they didn't). Also almost all reporting of legal proceedings is totally incorrect (for instance, there was probably a second lien registered on the house, not a second mortgage, etc)

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mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Fuzzy Mammal posted:

I went to Costa Rica and a mid sixties guy from Calgary was getting married to one of the maids to basically be his domestic servant and bedroom slave :( They spent all day every day sitting in the lounge drinking whiskey and smoking it was pretty disgusting.

That guy sounds excellent with money.

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