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caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Oh shadow banking. Ohhhh boy. I remember my colleagues telling me about businesses working with gangsters to smuggle in USD/Forex during the early 90's. State loans are definitely much harder to get but Chinese companies do set up subsidiaries and shell companies in Hong Kong to circumvent liquidity problems.

I'm in the manufacturing side, so if you have any questions I will try my best to answer them.

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caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Isn't most of China's high speed rail network mostly for passengers? Do they actually slap freight on it at night?

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

FrozenVent posted:

The time-value of freight isn't enough to justify using HSR; if you have a cargo that's high value enough you're going to want the added flexibility of trucks or you'll use a train. Plus passengers are self-loading; you'd lose a lot of the advantage on turnaround.

No sense having the cargo travel at 500 MPH if it's going to sit in a warehouse for eight hours first.

That's what I figured. It's mostly container trucks and freight.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Speaking of hilarious deliveries, anyone remember Diablo 3? Well the video game was banned in China and sellers/buyers used the code word Da Bo Luo 3. Which literally meant 3 pineapples.

Well some nerd paid double the price for the American version of 3 pineapples expecting he will get the game. Nope, he 3 got 3 dole pineapples :smith:

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Can someone please tell me more about India? It is the world's largest democracy after all.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

pentyne posted:

Rampant corruption on a level that makes China look modest in some respects.

Yes that too, but it doesn't seem to be fragmenting with regional groups trying to secede. Being angry, yes, but outright secession? Not that I know of.

Then of course, there's Pakistan :smith:

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
:laffo: :laffo: :laffo:

http://www.apec-china.org.cn/

It's down

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Well the Shanghai Composite have been extremely active recently because of the Hong Kong - Shanghai Stock through train. It's much easier for Hong Kongers and the outside world investing in the SHanghai stock market through Hong Kong. During the opening week the HK stock market actually tanked and i lost 10% in holdings. But the Shanghai side though it was just rally after rally after rally.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
I can't handle the market changes anymore. I'm cashing out.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Shifty Pony posted:

I had a question about that. Is there an attempt to crack down on this outflow? Is that possible in a country where a bribe can go pretty far? Will we see China start attempting to claw back overseas deposits and investments similarly to how the US has been chasing tax dodging?

This is what Hong Kong is and Macau is for. Park your loving money in HKD as it's pegged to the USD.

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, we will see about that. I think a lot of the "average people" are going to lose their shirts in the coming stock crash. Also, there are other issues of massive corruption and inequality in China that are immensely comparable to the type of poo poo that goes down in Russia, hell China may be the teacher rather than the student in that regard.

Hey guys I have shares in the hong Kong stock exchange. at 170, market crashed a bit right after the HK-Shanghai through train and down the price of the stock went to 130's. I'm just back from Australia and last time I checked it's 250.

Hell yeah I'm rich. In a really really weird way. Oh and there's going to be a HK-Shenzhen through train. Welp. Another roller coaster ride? Maybe I can make a million USD this time

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Cultural Imperial posted:

lol at the implication that Chinese retail investors are sophisticated, financially savvy market actors.

There's waaaay too many get rich schemes here and people are dumb enough to buy "limited edition currency" for a 100000000% return after 50 years.

All retail investors are dumb. China's government can easily bend the rules and set market limits on whim. Double dumb

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Tell me more about H-shares! Thanks!

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Get rich or die trying.

Ok Maybe should try getting a loan and do some margin trading!

Well if I sell my nest egg now and and rebuy, I can afford a brand new sky palace!

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Holy loving poo poo. I'm going to cancel my limit at auction orders and double down my money. If I lose money I will toxx myself and donate 1000 USD in Save the Children

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

HSI dropped a bit yesterday, Ok Im going to hold on before I sell and make more imaginary profit

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Lots of firms in Southern China are already using robots for production. Foxconn has an automation program to combat rising wages, but robots is not the end all be all of production. Basic parts and components still require cheap engineering, in the mean time GuangDong still remains king.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Fojar38 posted:

Robots they buy from Japan or the US.

You mean Japan or Germany/Switzerland. Which source their parts from China.

American robots suck because Americans rather off shore everything to save costs.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Crash or no crash I made more money. I'm going to reinvest for one more roller coaster ride.

And what's the name of the Financial product VideoTapir? The biggest one I think is Ali-fund by Alibaba. It's on average 10% yearly gain 4 years straight and you just transfer money from your alipay account. There were quite a few stock crashes in the Chinese market, it's just that lots of people are only starting to get involved in retail trading because capital controls are slowly being eased off. Financial products are actually hard for Chinese retail investors to buy, they have to jump through a lot of hoops. So you end up with shadow banks and proxy trades :suicide:

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Yeah there's always going to be some big crash, but in this day and age, wages aren't really going anywhere. Not necessarily dump everything into that one hot stock, but have a basket of investments and a steady portfolio with monthly contributions. What are you guys going to do with your excess money, put it into your regular savings account :laffo: A term deposit account ?

Heck, she can even go RON PAULLLL and buy some spot gold ETF or related fund. When you hit 30 and have 0 investments /long term savings plan you are pretty hosed

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Get this book: 4 pillars of investing in Chinese

http://www.amazon.cn/%E5%9B%BE%E4%B9%A6/dp/9862350377/ref=sr_1_8?ie=UTF8&qid=1429856476&sr=8-8&keywords=%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E9%87%91%E5%BE%8B

More about long term savings. You won't be rich but at least it beats having no savings plan at all

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
This time I won't give a poo poo about all the naysayers. Yeah the economy's going to tank but it's been a while and I can make some more good money while the market is rolling. This will create another short rally in the stock market before a major correction.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Make your money before the market implodes, you guys are just losing out :smug:

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Daduzi posted:

I doubt they'd need to be discouraged, as long as the company stores stocks instant noodles they'll be flocking there instead of trying any of that foreign garbage.

Hey man, Burger kings make anywhere in the world easier to live!

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
I'm rich. But I want to be richer. Im too late to short stocks now but can't wait for the market to hit rock bottom

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
Hk economic journal: I do like reading their analysis and the news is not as heavy handed as SCMP.

http://www.ejinsight.com/20150817-why-renminbi-devaluation-is-a-one-off-move/ posted:

From an economic viewpoint, the renminbi will be excessively strong if it appreciates along with the US dollar.

Such an appreciation will deviate from China’s economic slowdown and cause more damage to the nation’s economic restructuring.

From my point of view, it is a must for the Chinese currency to be devalued against the US dollar.

First, the yuan devaluation has created more room for monetary policy. The surprising fall in China’s export growth in July was partly due to the strong Chinese currency, apart from weak external demand.

As a result, the Chinese central bank had to slash the interest rate and the reserve requirement ratio for banks in a bid to cap the real interest rate rally.

Proper devaluation of the renminbi will alleviate the pressure on monetary policy.

Second, the move will also benefit China’s move to liberalize it capital accounts. The market reform is a key part of China’s efforts to make the yuan a global currency and allow it to join the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights (SDR) basket.

However, global investors may stay away from renminbi assets for fear of devaluation if the exchange rate has completely deviated from economic fundamentals.

Some foreign politicians have accused Beijing of meddling with the exchange rate. However, China has in fact kicked off the market reform of its exchange rate regime by allowing the currency to move closer to the market rate.

If not, persistent fears of a yuan devaluation will affect the offshore renminbi market. For example, the CNH interest rate has been steadily higher than that in the onshore market, reflecting tight liquidity in the offshore renminbi market.

Beijing’s yuan devaluation has mitigated market expectations for a long-term depreciation, although there might be some volatility in the short and medium term.

It’s a tough decision, which would cause losses for investors, but it has allowed investors see the future direction of the redback.

Also, it would help stimulate China’s economic growth, which in turn would eventually restore market confidence in renminbi assets.

Global investors would invest in the yuan and yuan-denominated assets if they believe the currency won’t continue to devalue in the long run.

Third, the yuan devaluation will help Beijing gain a bigger say in its foreign exchange policy, even while the United States is on track to hike interest rates in September. The move has offset any massive capital outflow pressure in the future.

The one-time devaluation has helped establish a new range for the renminbi’s exchange rate within a period, allowing Beijing to have a bigger say in its foreign exchange policy. It would avoid a double hit from the impact of a US rate hike on its currency and capital outflow.

And the Chinese central bank still has more than four months to optimize the exchange rate regime and capital accounts liberalization, which would help its fight for including yuan into the SDR basket.

In theory, I believe the central government hopes to adopt a one-off devaluation strategy rather than a gradual depreciation tact. The latter would trigger arbitrage and increase costs for Beijing to manage its foreign exchange rate.

If the Chinese central bank manages to stabilize the exchange rate in the near future, and restores market confidence, the country’s foreign exchange reserve will start to pick up again.

However, the foreign exchange market is set to witness huge volatility in the following days as global speculators take advantage of the opportunity to short-sell.

No central bank would say its currency will continue to devalue, which would lure global investors to attack its currency.

There is no basis for the continued depreciation of the redback from the international and internal economic situation.

China has managed to maintain a 7 percent growth rate in the first half of this year despite internal and external challenges.

The sharp changes in the money supply and bank loans for July are temporary and manageable.

Beijing will continue to stick to a prudent monetary policy.

Meanwhile, recent economic data is encouraging, pointing to positive signs in economic development. That has laid a solid foundation for a stable exchange rate.

Also, China’s current accounts surplus has reached US$305.2 billion in the first seven months of this year. This is critical to the supply and demand fundamentals in the foreign exchange market.

Beijing has accelerated its reforms to internationalize the renminbi and open up its financial markets. Foreign investors have increased demand for the Chinese currency in trading, investment and asset allocation. That has injected a fresh momentum for a steady renminbi.

The market has long priced in the impact of a stronger US dollar following a US interest rate hike. The market is set to stabilize after a short-term reaction to the rate increase.

In addition, China has ample foreign exchange reserves, a healthy fiscal situation and prudent financial systems, which all support a stable foreign exchange rate.

China has adopted a market-based and managed floating exchange rate regime, and as such, investors should treat the exchange rate volatility sensibly.

The central bank will let the market gain a stronger voice in the pricing of its currency, and this will further stabilize the exchange rate and allow it to reach a new equilibrium.

This article appeared in the Hong Kong Economic Journal on Aug 17.


Think the economist recently was saying that there won't be a currency price war as the measures are temporary.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
My put warrants made me a bunch of money so I'm happy.

It's no end of the world for now, in the mean time I can make some more for another roller coaster ride!

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
AAAANNND IT'S BACK DOWN

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Jumpingmanjim posted:

FT reporting that the Chinese Government will stop buying up shares :getin:

OK im going to make some warrant put calls in the h-index

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Hey Mr Moneybags can you post the full article?

Too late I dumped all my year's annual play money based on some forum post.

I'm like the reverse banana cart guy

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

etalian posted:

A shares are domestic shares that are locked out from foreign investors, while H shares are shares traded in the Hong Kong stock market for the same company that can be
bought by foreign investors.

Lots of big brokerages such as Vanguard are planning to add A share exposure for emerging market funds next years.

Um. There was the Shanghai- Hong Kong connect which allowed foreign firms and residents to buy A shares through Hong Kong. Previously the H-index shot up like crazy because the early wave of investors bought H-shares of China company at an arbitrage

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
But if everyone shorts, won't that mean the market will stabilize faster :downsrim:

I wonder how rich the finance guys are in China. They get all the heads up information from the government and make crazy killings.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
There's DJI, they make drones.

Southern China is still the go to place in the world for semi-conductor components. Even high quality Japanese capacitors and sensors were made in China. Tech parts is a bit mundane but nonetheless is a lot more difficult compared to other components like textiles.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer
DJI is a great company because it originally started in Hong Kong :downsrim:

Chinese smart phones are adequate. It's pretty decent value for consumers and you can get good specs at low prices. Software wise they look fine but are notorious for cannibalizing open source software or being some sort of apple clone (like most of android). Chinese smart phones and electronics are pretty much the go-to place for low income groups and developing countries.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Fojar38 posted:

It's really easy to integrate a bunch of services into one app when you have a closed economy with very little competition

WeChat is less an example of "Chinese innovation" and more an example of how hosed up and weird China's economy is

An easy way to tell is to note that Wechat has tried to spread outside of China but has failed every single time to be more than a niche chat app for expats to talk to people in China with, from the US to Europe to India, because integrating such a diverse amount of services essentially requires an unquestioned monopoly in a shitload of different fields.

In fact the article actually notes that

Just because you have some monopoly and trade barriers doesn't mean you can magically create something as good as alipay. Heck EU, Australia are comparatively bad. Japan with its closed portal of cellphone makers, RFID payment system from the 90s was really advanced but nowadays haven't changed much.

internet consumer services in China is really awesome and leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the world. Alipay simplifies everything and loves to hire young ambitious graduates to do more crazy poo poo.

It's actually a huge battle between wechat and alipay. And other internet apps are fighting each other for respective market share. China apps suck overseas because they don't know how to localize properly and there's the touchy issue dealing with foreign banks and sovereignty.

The real protectionist in China is union pay where they don't innovate.

Then you have the giant old cartel like VISA and MasterCard who do gently caress all and charge crazy high merchant fees. That's why you can't pay your taxes or use tap and go for low cost transactions like public transportation.

Google wallet, Apple Pay, square, heck even PayPal tried to make improvements to consumer finance but got stonewalled by the old guard of banks and credit card systems.

Wechat is actually doing pretty well in African countries because no bank wants to go there. But again, localization is a bit iffy and the money they earn is not much. Chinese app makers are more focused on China because they see the rest of the world as too backward and given up on them.

If someone can find the number of transactions between wechat/alipay and compare it with visa/master that would be great

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Jerry Manderbilt posted:

im actually chinese american, albeit one who doesnt believe in chinese race supremacy and acknowledges the harm a lot of chinese have done to non-chinese poc

guess that makes me a race traitor to you

I'm Chinese Canadian and same.

But I don't feel very Canadian any more even though I love Canada :canada:

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caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

Bloodnose posted:

Things should go both ways. We'll see what actually happens

You like 2 way don't you

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