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Shakugan posted:One thing I didn't notice in this thread was discussion about how Jaclyn had a chance to win the entire game but threw it away? All she had to do was vote Natalie instead of Baylor at final 5; getting someone to use their idol on you and then using that immunity to vote that someone off is a game winning move. Missy and Baylor likely would have taken Jaclyn to final tribal even if she hadn't won immunity because they were stupid and scared of Keith. Alternatively she could have got with Keith and said they would force a draw until one of Baylor/Missy agreed to be voted out (knowing it would make no difference to their chances of winning). She had no idea Natalie had an idol before tribal council. You could tell she wasn't just acting surprised when Missy (or maybe it was Baylor) mentioned that they weren't worried about the idol because they knew who had it.
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Dec 18, 2014 20:03
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Mercaptopropyl posted:She had no idea Natalie had an idol before tribal council. You could tell she wasn't just acting surprised when Missy (or maybe it was Baylor) mentioned that they weren't worried about the idol because they knew who had it. If Natalie didn't have an idol that she was intending on playing on Jaclyn, there was no way that Jaclyn voting against Baylor could accomplish anything because there wouldn't be enough votes. If Jaclyn was going for the hail mary with Natalie and believed her, she would have had to believe that either Keith was in on it (which she would have known he wasn't since Natalie obviously would have told her not to talk with him since he wasn't part of the plan), or Natalie had an idol. Obviously it requires a better understanding of strategy than Jaclyn is capable of, but all the necessary information to deduce what would have to happen for Jaclyn to stay in the game if Natalie was telling the truth was there.
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Dec 18, 2014 20:27
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Natalie could have had Keith in it or given him another name. Or Natalie could have been just confusing the votes. Her play was pretty nutty so it seems totally unfair to expect Jaclyn to predict it ahead of time based solely on Natalie telling her to vote for Baylor. Especially since she had no idea Nat had the idol. And I'm not sure that betters her chances for F3 or a win. Sure, it's arguably a big move but it's more of a Natalie mistake than a Jaclyn move. But even still unless you work the fallacy of the predetermind outcome and assume Jaclyn wins F4 immunity she runs the chance of Keith winning immunity and Baylor and Missy voting her out. It just seems like way too much of a hypothetical to give much consideration, or judge a player for.
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Dec 18, 2014 20:38
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Binary Logic posted:But then why hold Reed up as someone who is "changing peoples lives". Seems like he's setting a terrible example. Like how they showed off that they let a Make-a-Wish kid make a challenge but completely neglected to remind the audience that this challenge broke Missy's leg?
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Dec 18, 2014 20:41
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STAC Goat posted:Natalie could have had Keith in it or given him another name. Right, but Keith wasn't in on it, that's the point. Jaclyn would have known Keith wasn't in on it because Natalie would have told her to not to talk to him. So there's only one way that Jaclyn can both think that Natalie wants to keep her around and have it be possible; that she had an idol. quote:Or Natalie could have been just confusing the votes. Her play was pretty nutty so it seems totally unfair to expect Jaclyn to predict it ahead of time based solely on Natalie telling her to vote for Baylor. Especially since she had no idea Nat had the idol. The point being is that if Natalie was making a move against Baylor; the only way it could work given Jaclyn's information was for Natalie to have an idol. So either she was lying, and it doesn't matter what Jaclyn does, or she isn't, and Jaclyn can win the game by voting Natalie out because... quote:And I'm not sure that betters her chances for F3 or a win. Sure, it's arguably a big move but it's more of a Natalie mistake than a Jaclyn move. But even still unless you work the fallacy of the predetermind outcome and assume Jaclyn wins F4 immunity she runs the chance of Keith winning immunity and Baylor and Missy voting her out. it is a HUGE move, right in front of the jury, up against people who haven't made any visible moves since it was Natalie getting the credit for the prior moves.
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Dec 18, 2014 20:43
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If Natalie was being honest, Jaclyn stays in the game. If Natalie wasn't, Jaclyn was going home no matter what. There was really nothing to do but follow what Natalie said because going against her didn't have a guaranteed outcome at all.
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Dec 18, 2014 20:53
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sportsgenius86 posted:If Natalie was being honest, Jaclyn stays in the game. If Natalie wasn't, Jaclyn was going home no matter what. There was really nothing to do but follow what Natalie said because going against her didn't have a guaranteed outcome at all. If Natalie was being honest, her only possible plan that could benefit Jaclyn was A, and Jaclyn could have destroyed her with her own option B instead. Doing this would have meant an almost definite win if she made final 3 (huge game changing move taking out the clear favorite to win), and would have increased her chances of getting to the final 3 (getting rid of one of the biggest challenge threats, and she could have just played dumb until final tribal about why she voted Natalie in order to have Missy/Baylor take her to the 3 instead of "challenge monster keith that everyone likes"). Of course there's no guaranteed outcome, but one can infer from the information at hand likely strategies that others will employ, and choose optimal responses to those strategies to improve ones own chances. I think it's silly to just say "her only option was to trust Natalie instead of thinking about her own move to benefit her own game".
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Dec 18, 2014 20:59
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Yeah what a mistake by Jaclyn not to predict someone would definitely play an idol on her.
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Dec 18, 2014 21:05
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Mercaptopropyl posted:Yeah what a mistake by Jaclyn not to predict someone would definitely play an idol on her.  There was only one possible way that Natalie could keep Jaclyn around.
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Dec 18, 2014 21:13
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No there wasn't. She could've had Keith voting Baylor too and just not wanted her people to talk to each other because she wants everything hush hush. She could have had Missy and Baylor doing a vote split or something. Who knows? You can't say Jaclyn should have divined the fact that Natalie was about to play an idol on her, that requires near omniscience.
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Dec 18, 2014 21:19
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She could have said anything from "I'm still undecided — I'll talk to Keith and make up my mind, but you should vote for Baylor if you want any chance of staying" to "Vote for Baylor, I'll take care of the rest" and it absolutely does not rule out the possibility that Keith gets involved (or maybe a 9th-dimensional chess move where Keith/Baylor/Missy scatter their votes and Natalie/Jaclyn are the majority as a pair). Jaclyn isn't in a position to take any chances; it was a Hail Mary to begin with
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Dec 18, 2014 21:20
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I was part of the group who came into this rolling my eyes about the Twinnies (I watch The Amazing Race) and ended up rooting for Natalie half-way through. Glad she won.STAC Goat posted:You know that bitchy comment about Natalie makes me think there was a Reed villain edit in there if they had wanted to make it. I totally missed the bitchy comment, what was it?
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Dec 18, 2014 21:30
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Yeah, the hurdle here seems to be that you (Shakugan) are 100% convinced that Jaclyn had certainty that Keith wasn't involved with Natalie's plot while I (and it seems everyone else) don't really understand why you're so sure of that. Jaclyn: Are you going to vote me or Keith out? Natalie: Missy and Baylor are voting for you so vote for Baylor. I'm not sure what I'm doing but I going to talk to Keith and think about things. Just vote for Baylor and don't tip anyone off. Assuming some conversation like that happened I don't see how Jaclyn is supposed to know Natalie's plan or the outcome. Now if Natalie told Jaclyn that it was going to be a 3-2 Jaclyn-Baylor vote or that those three were all locked in on Jaclyn but she had a plan, then yeah, Jaclyn maybe should have guessed about an idol. But that seems unlike Natalie and I didn't notice anything to indicate that happened. Occam's Razor just seems to suggest that Jaclyn was unsure what at least Keith's vote was if not everyone's. If there's something I'm missing that you caught I'm all ears. It wouldn't be the first time. Midrena posted:I totally missed the bitchy comment, what was it? They replayed one of the times Natalie gave up her reward and Reed said it made him want to puke. It really wasn't bad. It just kind of created a pattern with "Baylor, you're a brat" and "Missy, you're the wicked stepmother." Reed's not saying vile things or anything, but he did seem to make enough snarky comments that it made me think he was probably doing it more often and it just wasn't making the edit. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Dec 18, 2014 |
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Dec 18, 2014 21:35
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STAC Goat posted:Yeah, the hurdle here seems to be that you (Shakugan) are 100% convinced that Jaclyn had certainty that Keith wasn't involved with Natalie's plot while I (and it seems everyone else) don't really understand why you're so sure of that. Because if he was involved, Jaclyn would have been free to talk to him. There's no way Natalie would have left things up to chance (because Keith is known to always spill the beans), so she almost certainly told her not to talk to Keith about the plan. That is a giant red flag, because if he was in on the plan, talking to him wouldn't have been an issue.
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Dec 18, 2014 21:43
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I honestly just completely disagree with your hypothesis to the point where I'm not even sure how to argue it. You're making an assumption that Natalie told Jaclyn not to talk to Keith and the drawing a conclusion based on that. We don't know Natalie said that and even if she did we don't know the circumstances or framing. Natalie could have said "don't worry about Keith, I'll take care of him, but don't talk to him because you know how he gets and I don't want him to blow it again." That makes sense to me and seems to address your assumption that Jackie was told not to talk to Keith without tipping her off that Keith isn't in on the plan.
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Dec 18, 2014 21:59
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I just don't see Natalie taking the chance that Jaclyn would talk to Keith. I don't buy that Jaclyn wouldn't say anything to him at all if she thought he was in on a plan to vote Baylor. I guess it's impossible to say for sure with the footage we have.
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Dec 18, 2014 22:04
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Mercaptopropyl posted:Except that he'd be screwing Jaclyn out of more money by not voting for her... No he wouldn't - if they tie for 2nd they both get $100k... Vytas did the same thing with Gervase/Monica and I thought it was a dick move then too. I just checked though and the difference between 2nd and 3rd place is only like $15k not $50k like I thought so I take it back - not really a huge deal
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Dec 18, 2014 22:10
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Unmerciful posted:No he wouldn't - if they tie for 2nd they both get $100k... Vytas did the same thing with Gervase/Monica and I thought it was a dick move then too. Honestly if I ever went on Survivor my strategy would be to make myself the goatiest of goats. Because the prize money for decent place finishes is pretty drat good (though they always seem to make a point of not allowing discussion of this sort of thing to be aired), and being someone others want to try get to final tribal seems like the strategy that would maximise expected return.
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Dec 18, 2014 22:20
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STAC Goat posted:I honestly just completely disagree with your hypothesis to the point where I'm not even sure how to argue it. You're making an assumption that Natalie told Jaclyn not to talk to Keith and the drawing a conclusion based on that. We don't know Natalie said that and even if she did we don't know the circumstances or framing. I don't think that we will really know either way, unless it comes out in different exit interviews. From what we got in the show, there's nothing to go on than Jaclyn saying "this is what Nat told me to do". We can guess that people don't want to tell keith about doing any blindslides since he exposed one of them before it happened, and almost a second. (Plus he told baylor that she was getting voted out in Josh's boot episode). Keith is probably not the person I would want to be sitting on any secret info. It's just a fun missed opportunity that would have been exciting and changed things if jaclyn voted for Nat at final 5 over baylor. Here are my favorite missed opportunities for this season: -Val and John Rocker do a better job of not letting Josh know what's up, so Josh doesn't change his vote to Val, thus Baylor leave and Val stays in the game a little longer with her "two idols" -Dale gives his fake idol to Jon before the vote as a sign of good faith, so Jon thinks he has an idol -Keith doesn't freak out at tribal and Jon gets voted out. I think these would have lead to some fun moments, and make the early part of the game more fun. Overall, I think that the last few episodes were fun, and I'm happy with Nat as a winner, which almost makes up for what a bummer the rest of the season was. Edit: Unmerciful posted:No he wouldn't - if they tie for 2nd they both get $100k... Vytas did the same thing with Gervase/Monica and I thought it was a dick move then too. Sherri said that she and Dawn got the average prize money of 2nd and 3rd. (i.e. If 2nd is $100,000 and 3rd is $85,000 then they both received $92,500) I'm not completely sure if that's true or they still do that. Token Female fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Dec 18, 2014 |
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Dec 18, 2014 22:20
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Shakugan posted:I just don't see Natalie taking the chance that Jaclyn would talk to Keith. I don't buy that Jaclyn wouldn't say anything to him at all if she thought he was in on a plan to vote Baylor. Yeah, like I said I think we're just too deep in hypothetical to get anywhere. I don't think you're "wrong" because we're not dealing with facts here, we're dealing with theories and our perceptions of the players. So I disagree with your assessment of the situation or Jaclyn and Natalie as players and what they'd do but I could easily be the one who is wrong in that regard. I don't think Natalie would want Jaclyn and Keith to talk either. She wouldn't want those two confusing each other and blowing things, or getting a bright idea to try and make a move on their own, or just plain giving Keith information he can stumble over. I think that's why she didn't involve Keith even though that would have been a safer move on paper. I also think she wanted to keep Keith and Jaclyn isolated. She did an interesting thing there with the F4. She saved Keith. She save Jaclyn. She was Missy's only ally left. All three of them were basically left with her as their natural #1 ally and letting Keith and Jaclyn plot together could have changed that. But I disagree that Jaclyn wouldn't just shut up and follow orders if Natalie told her to vote Baylor and leave everything else to her. Time and time again Jaclyn proved herself as a passive player who lacked confidence in her very good instincts. Pretty much every step of this game she defaulted to quietly doing what she was told and ignoring her own thoughts on the issue. She was never a player willing to take her game into her own hands and that's her major undoing all the way up to her ignoring her instincts to get Natalie out (although if Jeff's reunion vote is to be believed it didn't really matter).
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Dec 18, 2014 22:25
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Met posted:Like how they showed off that they let a Make-a-Wish kid make a challenge but completely neglected to remind the audience that this challenge broke Missy's leg? How quickly we forget the season where the very first challenge broke a girl's arm. ....I think that was One World so maybe forgetting is for the best, but that girl was kind of the only one who seemed to have a personality.
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Dec 18, 2014 22:29
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I have to begrudgingly admit that finale dragged the season out of the cellar and into second worst behind One World but ahead of Nicaragua. Kim was a better winner on an otherwise worthless season, but Nat played a decent if occasionally head scratching game surrounded by imbeciles. Good on her. I'd be interested to see her back as it's tough to judge her skill level kind of like how it's hard to get an exact read on how good Kim Spradlin is for the same reason.
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Dec 18, 2014 23:06
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Next season is gonna be awesome! Go #TeamBlueCollar
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Dec 18, 2014 23:57
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I'm glad rainbow dolphin shirt won, my world view remains intact
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Dec 19, 2014 00:03
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Super Aggro Crag posted:Next season is gonna be awesome! Go #TeamBlueCollar I look forward to rooting for the glorious heroes of the proletariat to crush those bourgeois pigs.
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Dec 19, 2014 00:21
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Unmerciful posted:No he wouldn't - if they tie for 2nd they both get $100k... Vytas did the same thing with Gervase/Monica and I thought it was a dick move then too. edit: oh, beaten. Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Dec 19, 2014 |
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Dec 19, 2014 00:39
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xbilkis posted:Go back and tell the first page of this thread that everyone is psyched that a twinnie won Poque posted:Twinnies final two. Jury made up of extra twinnies. All twinnies all the time. 
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Dec 19, 2014 02:47
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Unmerciful posted:He knew Natalie was going to win and didn't want Missy to get $100k for second place - only explanation that makes sense and fits in with how bitter he is You were totally right. Reed confirmed it on Twitter.  https://twitter.com/thereedkelly/status/545544522654961664
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Dec 19, 2014 13:03
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What a piece of poo poo that guy is. The funniest part is that if he ever gets back on the show he's going to get the Colton treatment where nobody will want to work with him.
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Dec 19, 2014 16:11
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Natalie's reaction to Reed's vote is hilarious
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Dec 19, 2014 16:32
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I dunno, I thought his jury speech was entertaining and it's far from an unprecedented move. Usually it's organized from Pondarosa ahead of time so Reed wouldn't accidentally tip the vote the wrong way. It's quite likely everyone but Baylor was in on it. Missy sucked and pissed off a lot of people, it's unsurprising they'd want to give her as little money as possible.
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Dec 19, 2014 16:32
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hahahaha I loving love her. Awesome winner.
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Dec 19, 2014 16:38
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Reed's speech was one of my favorite jury speeches ever. It was harsh, but oh well, Missy trying to act like she was some sort of motherly figure was annoying. I only wished Baylor had yelled during FTC, "she's a mom!"
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Dec 19, 2014 16:42
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Natalie is the fuckin best.
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Dec 19, 2014 16:46
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I really didn't like Reed. Maybe he could come back in a HvV type of season and do okay. He definitely belongs with the villains, obviously. His RHAP appearance where he just went into that long explanation about how he was the one that got Jeremy booted - I just plain don't believe it. The TV show demonstrated how much of it was because of Jon's fear of Jeremy and in Rob's boot interview with Missy, when she was asked about it, she went all into the reasons why she chose Jon over Jeremy, and didn't even mention Reed. Throw in the weird splits he did when accepting that immunity necklace, and the type of speech he designed for the jury, and I really get the impression of him being pretty smug, kind of cruel, and very about himself.
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Dec 19, 2014 17:17
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I want to hang out with Natalie 
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Dec 19, 2014 17:45
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I don't get why Natalie wanted to take Baylor out instead of Jaclyn. She would have probably won 8-0-0 against Baylor and Missy. In one of the podcasts, I think Jon said it was the plan all along to 'sacrifice' Baylor and Jaclyn, and have a final three of Missy/Natalie/Jon. Somehow we ended up with Missy/Natalie/Jaclyn, which seems pretty close to that. I'm kinda feeling like the editors hid all of that discussion because the plan never really got deviated from except for Natalie "blindsiding" swapping Jaclyn for Jon (which was a good move, Jon might have actually gotten more than a few of the mouthbreather votes). Probably why Jeff really doesn't want to do blood vs water again, since if there are a few couples around toward the end, a lot of the strategy discussion is going to be basically colluding to get one of your pair on the jury for lobbying and a locked up vote, but not giving up too much power in the game. Prolly made editing all of that out a nightmare.
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Dec 19, 2014 19:48
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Natalie didn't want to leave Baylor and Missy in the game together because if she did they'd more or less control the vote at F4. Splitting them left three divided players in Missy, Jaclyn, and Keith who all kind of owed Natalie something but weren't working with each other. It was her best chance to influence control over the vote. I think that "sacrifice" thing was just something Jon bought into because he's dumb. It just didn't make much sense for Baylor and Jaclyn to willingly sacrifice themselves, Natalie clearly didn't care about it and at least considered Missy/Baylor or Keith, and Baylor seemed very much like she was playing to the end. Basically I'm taking everything Jon says about the game with a grain of salt. Despite all the power he had in it he was constantly lost in the woods and he's admitted himself that he had a bad grasp of the relationships and mood of the tribe. And yeah, I'm not buying much of what Reed says either. His accounts all make it a little too convenient to paint him as a better player who didn't really make any mistakes. Personally I thought he shows his character when Jeff set him up to apologize to Missy in the reunion show and he refused. Whether you mean it or not, that's your situation to say some half apology to save face like "emotions were high and I'm sorry it came off so harsh, especially to Baylor." But Reed doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who apologizes. Baddog posted:Probably why Jeff really doesn't want to do blood vs water again, since if there are a few couples around toward the end, a lot of the strategy discussion is going to be basically colluding to get one of your pair on the jury for lobbying and a locked up vote, but not giving up too much power in the game. Prolly made editing all of that out a nightmare. I think the problem Jeff has with this season is that they cast it for the theme. The first Blood vs Water had at least one tribe of proven players while Beauty vs Brawn vs Brains and the upcoming White Collar vs Blue Collar vs No Collar are all games he says they cast first and then split up. But they specifically cast this season looking for couples and that has to be a much harder process to find good characters and players. They had a lot of dudes who were loved ones of more interesting players and a few couples who were all dud. It was a weak cast and Jeff seems to blame that process for it. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Dec 19, 2014 |
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Dec 19, 2014 20:12
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Baddog posted:In one of the podcasts, I think Jon said it was the plan all along to 'sacrifice' Baylor and Jaclyn, and have a final three of Missy/Natalie/Jon. Somehow we ended up with Missy/Natalie/Jaclyn, which seems pretty close to that. I'm kinda feeling like the editors hid all of that discussion because the plan never really got deviated from except for Natalie "blindsiding" swapping Jaclyn for Jon (which was a good move, Jon might have actually gotten more than a few of the mouthbreather votes). Probably why Jeff really doesn't want to do blood vs water again, since if there are a few couples around toward the end, a lot of the strategy discussion is going to be basically colluding to get one of your pair on the jury for lobbying and a locked up vote, but not giving up too much power in the game. Prolly made editing all of that out a nightmare.
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Dec 19, 2014 20:14
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STAC Goat posted:I think the problem Jeff has with this season is that they cast it for the theme. The first Blood vs Water had at least one tribe of proven players while Beauty vs Brawn vs Brains and the upcoming White Collar vs Blue Collar vs No Collar are all games he says they cast first and then split up. But they specifically cast this season looking for couples and that has to be a much harder process to find good characters and players. They had a lot of dudes who were loved ones of more interesting players and a few couples who were all dud. It was a weak cast and Jeff seems to blame that process for it. They did not cast players but relations for BvW2. You can clearly see that, we have the very thight/overprotective mother/daughter (Missy/Baylor), the slightly estranged father/daughter (Dale and his daughter), the all american couple with a tragic backstory, the younger and older brother, the gay christian couple and so on... The problem is that every couple in the end will be the same, a tight pair of 2 people that will never betray each other (if you tell me about Ciara voting her mother out, GTFO, they both agreed that that would be the best move going forward) and not individual players. Let's hope for next season to be a return to greatness and not One World(s apart).
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Dec 19, 2014 22:36
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