Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Yeah, I haven't been able to find non-insane NK news that didn't charge hefty fees.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Grouchio posted:

I wonder if Bernie would be potentially more active than Obama Ficklespine at dealing with bullshit like this...

I kind of want the bernistas mad fantasies to be true, with him all putting on a pair of Fidel shades, and says "It puts the reactors on hold, or it gets the glorious people's hose. Da?"

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Nonsense posted:

This seems to be the case as Venezuela is on the verge of invading Guyana after Maduro's plan to go to war with Colombia failed.

Wait, what? They are?

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

LeftistMuslimObama posted:

It seems like he is a true believer in the propaganda about him and his family, unlike his father and grandfather who simply used it to maintain power. He seems to be rapidly approaching the level of senselessly tyrannical behavior that inspires coups even in the most repressed countries. Although I don't know if it would be better or worse for the average North Korean/The rest of the world if NK was run by a competent military leader instead of a crazy Kim.

This was said about his dad and grand dad as well, and I doubt it's true. They were all brought up in a ruthless soviet-style nomenklatura, well aware that the people were fed lies about them out the rear end, and that they sat on the real power. Such greed is motivator enough for rule by extreme violence, particularly mixed with the paranoia that comes from no true elections and a nearly-as-powerful military class around you eyeing the crown.


WarpedNaba posted:

This isn't the first time we've had reports of death-by-Ack-Ack, wasn't there that purge in 2013?

Anyway, I kinda wondered if this would be one of those flak AA or the 8-gun AAs. Probably the latter, disappearing in a puff of smoke isn't visceral enough.

We've had one confirmed(-ish) execution by mortar round, these people aren't loving around.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Main Paineframe posted:

For this point, you don't need to look any farther than Israel, which refuses to officially confirm or deny that it does or does not have nuclear weapons (but everyone knows it does). They don't say anything about their nuclear deterrent or even claim that they have one; just coyly dancing around the subject is enough.

Didn't they do a measurable weapons test in the Negev, though? Or am I misremembering?

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Cool, thanks

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
So, a dumb tankie friend of mine insists that Best Korea is under constant military threat from the US, and that they cut off all aid because NK sent a satellite into space. When asked for proof, he gave a statement from a swedish communist party. What is he on about :confused:

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

JeffersonClay posted:

Oh well do feel free to elaborate.

Your pearl clutching about Korea potentially pressing the button is really dumb, because while we can never prove NK leadership is not a rational actor( how would you?), their actions largely confirm that they are, even if you don't understand why.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Crackeds quick fix today explains why you really should check the source before passing dumb "facts" about NK on:

http://www.cracked.com/quick-fixes/why-you-dont-actually-know-anything-about-north-korea/

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

JeffersonClay posted:

On one hand I have the international nonproliferation community which is clutching its pearls about the possibility that a rogue actor might actually use a nuclear weapon, and on the other hand I've got a few goons who say I'm dumb. It's a tough one.

Why is it hard to believe that someone whose job is literally fearmongering about nuke use would, uh, monger fear about the possibility of nukes?

I seriously doubt any researcher who knows the first thing about North Korea, "international nonproliferation expert" or not, would consider their government a rogue actor. So, you know, source your bullshit or stop being a dumb.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

fishmech posted:

There's all sorts of areas where they don't behave as a rational actor now or haven't in the past. But things that actually risk invasion/restarting the war are a place they've studiously behaved in a rational manner for decades.

Yeah, true enough, but we are talking about a dumbshit "Kim nukes things because [reasons]" scenario.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

JeffersonClay posted:

This is some dumb poo poo right here. Do you think the same thing about climate change researchers?

I'm the only one who has linked any expert opinion in this discussion, but here's some more I just googled.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/heres-what-makes-rogue-nuclear-states-really-dangerous-12899
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/north-korea-a-rogue-state-outside-the-npt-fold/
http://foreignpolicyconcepts.com/are-north-koreas-nuclear-and-missile-threats-real-part-one/

Tell me more about things you 'just googled' :allears:

(try checking your sources rather than clicking the first thing that comes to mind)

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Kthulhu5000 posted:

But that ties in to what I said in response to mediadave; if South Korea is willing to absorb those occasional losses and not engage in a retaliation, then North Korea really loses a lot of its military bargaining power, which is why they're going for nukes now.

Didn't they start going for them the early sixties? I guess they saw their own gear becoming obsolete well ahead of the time, if what you're saying is true.

JeffersonClay posted:

Why don't you share the "proliferation fears are for pussies" research which informs your views. I won't hold my breath.

Yeah, that's not what I said at all. Keep sucking your own farts :bravo:

Tias fucked around with this message at 07:37 on Sep 13, 2016

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Kthulhu5000 posted:

North Korea probably would have developed nuclear weapons no matter what happened in the 1990s, but I think the strain of the nation's economic and resource woes on its military capabilities (amplified by North Korea being essentially isolated and alienated, China aside, though that's probably not the most stable relationship at this point) has really driven home to the Kim regime that they need a new card in the deck ASAP. This is because the South's advances in military capability and international influence, both politically and economically, have basically broken any semblance of parity leverage that the two Koreas had. The possibility of stalemate has gone away, and the odds of victory are probably quite strong in South Korea's favor.

Agreed. Hell, a large number of draftees are declared unfit because of cognitive impairment as a result of malnutrition. With soldiers barely bright enough to fight because of chronic starvation, lack of fuel and with unservicable armour, I doubt the People's Army can make more than a dent in opposing forces at this point.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
A lot of posters itt seem to think that Kim/the generals would like nothing more than to push the button or sell it off to people who would, regardless of how dumb that is.

In my view, neither nuclear or conventional confrontation will happen, both NK and the international community has more to gain by pretending it will.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Number_6 posted:

At my neighborhoods' last gathering of middle age white men to watch the Big Football Game, it was Widely Agreed that North Korea was a grave threat, and that if we didn't pre-emptively Take Them Out Now, it was only A Matter Of Time before that Crazy Guy wiped out New York, LA, and Topeka with a surprise attack. I tried to explain the tenuous nature of NK's nuclear capabilities, and the risk to SK civilians near the border if the West were to launch an attack, and the fact that nobody wants to deal with millions of impoverished NK refugees. But my companions were not persuaded. What is the best argument against making a strike against NK nuclear facilities and ballistic-missile-related sites? Even I'm getting tired of NK's poo poo.

It's hard, the west is tired of war, we place Japan and SK at relatively great risk compared to the status quo( their nukes are lovely+they're not going to use them).

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Nope, got busted with a fake passport trying, that's what led Jong-Il to withdraw favoured status in the line to the throne.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Halloween Jack posted:

Setting aside the latest moment of insanity (which seems to be the only thing that spurs discussion on Korea), would anyone like to discuss the merits of engagement with the DPRK?

(I've read Bradley's book, I've been rereading Myers more critically and I would like to get into Lankov's work beyond his journal papers. I'm especially interested in this debate at the moment after stumbling upon an academic dust-up involving Myers and a few other Korea scholars from 2014.)

These are the things about economic engagement I don't understand: first, is regime collapse a goal? If so, is that actually a good thing? I believe that part of the reason the DPRK continues is that neither China, South Korea, nor the U.S. want to foot the bill to rehabilitate the country when the regime does inevitably collapse.

Second, how is economic engagement necessarily good for the North Korean people? Who is placing conditions that stop the DPRK from accepting exactly as much state capitalism as it needs to finance itself, perhaps even strengthening its tattered surveillance state in the process? The U.S. has a history of business relationships with repressive regimes wherein we exploit access to cheap labor and raw materials. At best, we turn a blind eye to human rights abuses, and at best we actively help them put down dissent. We supported a series of dictators in South Korea while "expressing concerns."

I'm inclined to believe that more change is happening thanks to small entrepreneurs selling goods smuggled across the Chinese border than from anything Western capitalists are doing.

Your inclination is largely correct. They're doing it because if they didn't do it, asian capitalists would, and the US and European populations would rather we did it.

The other powers are preparing for the collapse, but have no interest in actually spurring it, because it would be a political, humanitarian and police disaster of biblical proportions.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
What's an i-kad? Typo?

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
FWIW, a lot of defectors who spend time in prison camps have mentioned inmates as guinea pigs for both chemical and biological weapons.


E: a report from 1987 says they have 250 tons of gas, including mustard and VX.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

CommieGIR posted:

If any action were to occur, I guarentee China would be the first ones into North Korea to try to prevent US/South Korean occupation.

What do you base this claim on? Both the states and China seem extremely reluctant to even discuss how they would manage post-collapse NK.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
You're operating under the assumption that whoever replaces him won't be worse.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Yureina posted:

You do have a point there...

Besides, daydreaming about DPRK getting ruined from within by some internet nutter isn't going to actually lead to that happening.

Even if they run out of Kims, placing an old guard general on the throne could be doable, and even then it wouldn't lean to ruination of the DPRK. All they'd have to do is say "mistakes were made, perhaps the Kim dynasty does not, in fact, poo poo double rainbows" and open for more liberalizations of the economy. Their population can't really say no and go elsewhere, after all.

Tias fucked around with this message at 11:49 on Mar 8, 2017

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

CommieGIR posted:

North Korea announced yesterday they are preventing any Malaysians currently in North Korea from leaving until Malaysia gives them what they want.

What did they want!?

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Halloween Jack posted:

By the way, has anyone else here ever actually read Juche texts? I have, and they are indeed the most stupefying repetitive drivel I've ever encountered. Kim il Sung's addresses read like a chatbot that was only fed a few tweets worth of Marxist rhetoric interspersed with grandpa's stories about the war. The official stuff has this curiously mirrored structure, where the same exact phrase will repeat at the beginning and the end of a two or three paragraph long passage, in the hopes that that's enough space that you won't notice the repetition.

The stuff penned by sympathetic foreign scholars is marginally better, but tends to be chock full of declaration after declaration backed up by nothing at all.

Goonswarm used to grief this online game of nationstate roleplaying, and we even had a juchebot that could spit out huge blocks of juche nonsense on command. It was great fun to post, at least up until people realized we were loving with them.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
It seems like an easy boast to lie about. Without any credible organisation going out and taking responsibility it didn't happen, and even then it's doubtful.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

fishmech posted:

And I don't consider reunification under a DPRK-descended government to be any sort of viable scenario, because it's become too ossified around supporting the Kims and the generals. And even outside of that, most of the world's countries just don't plain trust them for international dealing, which would be quite harmful to Korea as a whole.

This isn't really true. Reunification would pose enormous and possibly insurmountable difficulties, but the "north koreans are brainwashed cult members" have been pretty seriously debunked by now. It's a bigger problem that they are malnourished, poorly educated and some are illiterate.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

WarpedNaba posted:

Nnnnno. The thing with missiles is that they're constantly firing out hot exhaust for a fair bit, meaning they're pretty easy to track by their heat signature if you know where to look - sending something to hit it in the timeframe between launch, lock and landing is a tricky as hell thing, but that's what THAAD hopes to achieve.

Artillery shells are much smaller, not nearly as hot, and generally go up and down in, what. a minute at most? The only way to stop that stuff from coming down is to blow up the artillery sites before they fire 'em.

Could be off, but that's how I understand it.

No, it's good. The current conventional response is to accept that you'll be hit by artillery, but then quickly tracking where it comes from and vaporize the offending battery by air or counterbattery.


E: unless you can strike first, of course.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

shrike82 posted:

Didn't realise North Korea has detained a UVA college student since last year. Kid was a moron though -

It was brought up both in this and other threads. I guess it's not really defensible on the part of the north korean government, but he really ought to have known better if he didn't want to end up in the hole.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

sincx posted:

The only country that can possibly have a chance of successfully regime changing North Korea is the PRC, and even then it will be enormously risky (no one wants to play "find the missing nukes") and extremely expensive (a few hundred thousand refugees brought Europe to its knees; a NK collapse will produce millions).

Yeah, no, we're taking them just fine. Hell, millions of refugees would not bring Europe to it's knees. Sure, our politicians and populations are racist fuckholes who paint it that way, but infrastructurally the problem simply does not exist.

Lebanon, a country of 6 million, with none of Europes hyper-modern infrastructure and economic surplus, took 2 million refugees and has not been 'brought to its knees', whatever that is supposed to mean.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
It's pretty clear R. Guy has never actually gone on these trips. Everyone who has describe both civilians and guides living in fear of the handlers, who have the power to send them away for good if they don't stick to the script.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

R. Guyovich posted:

the belief that as a westerner everything on earth revolves around you apparently extends to tours of a foreign country, where your presence is so important the dprk government sends stern minders to track your every move, rather than some people with basic tour guide training coming along to point out landmarks and not having any answers for your stupid political questions

their response to dprk government questions is about the same as it would be if a foreign tourist came to washington dc and kept asking about the us strategic nuclear reserve

Counterpoint: People who have actually been there.

:frogout:

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
The government forces usually turn into the insurgency, especially if the US makes a good a job of it as they did with the CPA in Iraq.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Y'all are getting things mixed up. No, of course koreans don't believe in unicorns or that the Kims invented calculus, yes, tours with western tourists are micromanaged by state censors. It's not a loving binary.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

I guess I am being doubtful that if you turned from a tour and ran as fast as you can into the forbidden zone that you'd actually see anything all that different. Like the tours are curated and clearly the best face possible. But it's still in a real city, where people really live, and if you yank back the curtain you are probably just gonna see the same sort of issues but worse, not some other secret world like the fantasy land western media projects about north korea.

It's a moot doubt, since you will be restrained by your handlers if you tried. One guy who I think was there on a commercial venture went for regular runs in the morning, and while he didn't see anything interesting, they freaked out and confined him to his handlers when they discovered it.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Nah, I'm sure this was a guy.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Sorry, this was ages ago. I can try to dig it up, but I honestly don't remember where I saw it.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

i mean it really very much seems like you just spiced up the story of the reporter going running with more drama than existed.are there really multiple stories of westerners going running in North Korea?

I'd cop to it if that was the case. This wasn't a reporter but an athlete or something like that.

Grouchio posted:

Don't North Koreans still believe that we want to eat their children and really want us all dead?

It's up in the air, a lot of witness accounts suggest many North citizens see through the bullshit, but have to pretend they don't because they don't know who else is in on it. Also, a lot of pirate media enters NK these days, which makes pretending North Korea is Best Korea difficult at best, and if they're lying about one thing in the outside world, people probably realize they may be lying about other things as well.

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
I would if I could find it again. I was not trying to con anyone, I know I have read this.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Tias
May 25, 2008

Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Could be, sure. I try to take a chill approach to any news from NK, since it came out that most of the outrageous poo poo we think we know are just fabricated news.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply