2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 2016 U.S. Downballot: THEY ARE THE LAW

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

FAUXTON posted:

I don't think it has sunk in how steep the uphill battle for the GOP is at the presidential level. Hillary could lose like Ohio and Florida and still hit 270. The GOP has to win all the Romney States, all the traditional swing states, plus something like Pennsylvania or Colorado. If Hillary loses FL because for whatever reason everyone other than swamp-dwellers and shuffleboard cubanos still pissed about Castro appropriating their plantations then she's still got a buffer of something like 30 EV if not more.

Virginia becoming lean Democrat has totally hosed up the GOP electoral math.

# ¿ Feb 24, 2016 04:05

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 02:27

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

thethreeman posted:

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/investigators-find-numerous-potential-ethics-violations-by-alan-grayson/2271978

Yikes. Anyone following the FL race more closely than me know if this is as bad as it reads? I was under the impression Grayson was the Dem to beat but I'm way out of date on this

Murphy is the Dem to beat.

Grayson is Donald Trump without charisma and nominating him would hand the seat to the republicans.

# ¿ Apr 7, 2016 03:58

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

thethreeman posted:

very strong set of polls for republicans from Q

Rubio +7/+8 like Leon said
Toomey +9 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_toomey_vs_mcginty-5074.html
Portman/Strickland tied http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/oh/ohio_senate_portman_vs_strickland-5386.html

Note that Rubio +7/+8 (Murphy/Grayson, respectively) contrasts with PPP's -1/+2 a few days ago, in which polling was one day (6/15-6/16) versus Q's 11-day polling (6/8-6/19). Neither used a LV screen, so who knows where the difference comes from. The orlando attack took place mid-way through Q's polling (on 6/12)

QPac's RV polls this cycle have, in general, been kind of all over the place. Getting a result where Clinton is up 7 in Florida but tied in Pennsylvania is sort of :psyduck:

That said, even if the poll is significantly off, I think McGinty is starting out behind Toomey at this point.

# ¿ Jun 22, 2016 21:16

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Zas posted:

Paul Ryan is saddled with leading the despised congress, although I guess if dems take the house his job gets a whole lot easier

the best possible result is Ryan being in charge by like 2-4 seats.

# ¿ Jul 7, 2016 01:50

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

In downballot news, Marist also polled the various senate races:

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/753332189937270784
https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/753331230448361472

e: also Colorado by Fox

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/753350219626975232

# ¿ Jul 13, 2016 23:23

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://www.stlmag.com/news/in-missouri-voter-polls-president-governor/

Didn't see this posted. Kander down 7 on Blunt in Missouri, but the D up [though within MoE] for the governor.

# ¿ Aug 9, 2016 16:10

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

sharkbomb posted:

Clinton +9 in Pennsylvania in RCP average, but McGinty (D) only +0.5 over Toomey (R) makes no loving sense to me.

R senators are running about 8 points ahead of Trump right now.

# ¿ Aug 10, 2016 19:46

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Patter Song posted:

The Dems in vulnerable seats (Donnelly, Manchin, McCatskill, Heitkamp, Tester) are all up two years from now and are likely all doomed no matter how they vote (McCatskill might survive, the others are like 100% doomed). It's totally possible that the Dems just take those losses as a given and just go for it. There's effectively no vulnerable Dems up in 2020, so it might be worth it to just balls to the wall in the next two years and try to recover the Senate in 2020.

It's not like there's any way Heitkamp, Manchin, or Donnelly survive no matter how they vote.

You are overstating the doom re: Manchin, Heitkamp, and Tester imo. All three are very popular in their state. Heitkamp is probably 50/50 though.

The other two (McCatskill and Donnelly) are probably toast though.

Schnorkles has issued a correction as of 18:11 on Aug 21, 2016

# ¿ Aug 21, 2016 18:06

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Montana, as a rule, has a lot of ticket splitting. State Democrats are quite popular while the national party is seen with a lot of distrust. Tester follows this rule and with incumbency should be seen as favored in the 2018 race.

# ¿ Aug 21, 2016 18:08

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Strickland, Kander, and whoever it is running against Burr in NC are all equally wave candidates at this point. If the Dems absolutely smash in the GOTV with a depressed republican turnout, all 3 will probably get in. If things stay a nominal 5-7 point win, we're looking at 50/50 senate right now imo.

# ¿ Aug 30, 2016 15:10

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

mcmagic posted:

The fact that Democrats can't even get rid of someone as odious as Wasserman Schultz in a primary is why we can't have nice things.

House politics are entirely local and have little to nothing to do with any sort of national feeling about someone.

DWS was/is popular in her district, she was never in any danger.

# ¿ Aug 31, 2016 16:44

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Also Tim Canova getting up after running a quixotic campaign that was going to go exactly nowhere and having a giant whine is pretty funny.

# ¿ Aug 31, 2016 16:44

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/774276615354388480

Ugly Q polls across the board for D candidates, though of the 4, only McGinty was an expected pick-up coming into this cycle.

e: Strickland I guess too, but that flamed out quick.

# ¿ Sep 9, 2016 17:05

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Shinjobi posted:

The Dems are going to botch drat near everything but the presidency at this rate.

Again.

The polling that had Bayh up 21 and 15 were cherry picked leaked internals. You shouldn't have paid any attention to them anyways.

There are two [?] independent polls of the race that have Bayh at +8 and +4.

# ¿ Sep 9, 2016 21:30

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

who wants a lovely emerson poll?

Well you're gonna get it!

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/777944343965425664

# ¿ Sep 19, 2016 20:06

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/777979219808747521

# ¿ Sep 19, 2016 22:23

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/780860852220067841

# ¿ Sep 27, 2016 21:07

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/781138093562793984

Donate and volunteer for your local politicians folks, it's just as important for your day to day life as the national.

# ¿ Sep 28, 2016 15:43

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Gonna triple post because no one else cares about the downballot.

Generic congressional on Ispos has moved back to D +6. Similar numbers on YouGov. These are mostly or entirely pre debate numbers. Generally speaking, Dems need the congressional generic to be around D +8/9 to have a shot to take back the house. A small part of this has to do with gerrymandering, but a large part has to do with how shallow the Dems locational bench is in some areas. There was a real problem getting good candidates, and there are districts in a wave that would be competitive that the DCCC doesn't even have anyone up for election in.

# ¿ Sep 28, 2016 17:13

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/781612545534750720

This is, to my knowledge, the first poll showing Hassan ahead for a little bit. That race just seems to be rocking back and forth between +2 Ayotte and +2 Hassan.

# ¿ Sep 29, 2016 23:05

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/783702461265670144

Senate numbers from Q's latest round of polls.

It's worth noting that Q, for whatever reason, has seen PA fundamentally differently than every other pollster all cycle long. My gut instinct is that they're wrong, but we've gotten a McGinty +7 and a Toomey +8 poll from two polls that were in the field at the exact same time.

# ¿ Oct 5, 2016 17:35

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/784012838553739264

Things.. may be getting a bit wave-y in the house. It's early to tell, but there's early signs that several republicans in R+5 districts are in trouble.

# ¿ Oct 6, 2016 15:54

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/784078259826913280

On the other hand...

# ¿ Oct 6, 2016 18:29

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Alter Ego posted:

Is it wrong that part of me wants Evan Bayh to have to actually work for it

If it wasn't a key part to Democratic control of the senate, I'd be okay with Evan Bayh losing and having a nice cry about it on national television because gently caress him.

# ¿ Oct 6, 2016 18:55

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/784746906933166080

fuuuucccckkkkk Evan Bayh!

# ¿ Oct 8, 2016 18:32

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Democrazy posted:

Cortez Masto up +7 in a CNN poll and Google Consumer Surveys has Kander up +7, both new polls that started last week. Given how Hassan is polling, I am over the moon about the encouraging signs we're getting from other races.

please do not be happy about GCS it triggers me and poll talk is my safe space tia

# ¿ Oct 18, 2016 16:31

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Alter Ego posted:

Unless it's to make sure that they win in NH and PA this is a mistake.

reposting from the Trump thread, but it has to do [imo] with how a murphy win is going to come about. Rubio is strong with Florida Latinos. It will be difficult for him to be knocked off in a normal election cycle when the D's strength in Florida is willing to ticket split to vote for him. You do, however, win in a wave. Financial investment doesn't really make that more or less likely to happen and HRC is already dumping so much into Florida that the DSCC can use their resources to work on turnout in Missouri and Indiana.

Murphy also had a pretty bad debate.

# ¿ Oct 18, 2016 17:22

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Alter Ego posted:

Well, maybe that's true, but narrative-wise it'll be spun as "DEMS GIVE UP ON MURPHY, DOES THIS SPELL DOOM FOR CLINTON IN FLORIDA?"

i think its pretty hard to see it being doom and gloom for Clinton in florida when she hasn't trailed in a poll there in weeks. Murphy is a weak candidate [like most statewide FL dems] and will get elected in a wave. Rubio probably knocks him off otherwise.

# ¿ Oct 18, 2016 17:25

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

axeil posted:

So the logic on pulling funding from Murphy is that he is going to win/lose because of Clinton's coattails and no amount of $$ will change that? Basically the Clinton campaign is getting the likely Murphy voters to the polls and Murphy is unlikely to benefit from ticket splitting? Or am I being too optimistic?

The logic is that Murphy is a weak candidate and there are better uses for funds. If Murphy wins its because of coattails and the bottom falling out of republican turnout, not the power of his own campaign.

# ¿ Oct 18, 2016 19:17

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2016-democrats-gain-in-ratings/

The house is slowly moving towards the Dems, but they need to sweep the toss-ups and knock off a few lean seats to actually gain control.

# ¿ Oct 20, 2016 19:12

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 02:27

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Slate Action posted:

Hey Burr, gently caress you!

https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/793212198130712576

Might cost him a point or two. Perfectly timed and that race is knife edge close

# ¿ Oct 31, 2016 23:41

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