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Grouchio posted:The Midwest is about to find itself much poorer than before once every pro LGBT sponsor heads for the hills. I think. midwestern leadership is cool with this because white poverty breeds Republicanism.
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Apr 1, 2015 16:25
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Samurai Sanders posted:The governor of Arkansas ordered the legislature rethink the religious freedom bill BEFORE he signed it? So Arkansas > Indiana now? arkansas has always been a liberal bastion compared to indiana at least Arkansas bothered to secede before it fought against The Union
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Apr 1, 2015 17:42
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Samurai Sanders posted:
Indiana has been a swing state one time in the past fifty years. I think it is safe to consider '08 an anomoly.
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Apr 1, 2015 17:57
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baw posted:I'd love for American conservatism to finally tear itself apart because of gay rights. It would be almost poetic. Conservatism will never die. even if the libertarians take over the republican party, the religious right will not abandon them right away. It is important to remember that mainstream american libertarians - including the pauls and every other libertarian who has ever accumulated any political power - are more federalist/neo-confederate than anything. If the party leadership goes ostensibly ~pro-gay~, it will be expressed as sticking up for the States' Rights of hippies in Vermont and Oregon, not as any kind of imperative to fight for the civil liberties of americans. The religious right will gripe a bit but will ultimately be fine with the States' Rights line, as they will (accurately) interpret it as "we can still oppress the gays so long as we are able to take/maintain control over the state government", which they generally can in the states where they matter to begin with. A genuine fragmenting of the republican coalition would likely require the party leadership to veer left on most-every social issue - gay rights, black rights, immigration, weed, criminal justice reform, abortion, religious tolerance - all at once, while avoiding repercussions during primary season. The religious Right knows that the best way to move the needle in their direction is via primary, not abandoning the republican party and handing years worth of free victories to the democrats, who they hate. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 19:26 on Apr 1, 2015 |
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Apr 1, 2015 19:21
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baw posted:This isn't something that they will do willingly, they will be forced into moderation because of slow but inevitable changes in demographics. It's a matter of when, not if. There are true believers within the ranks of GoP politicians, sure, but a ton of their policy is still driven first and foremost by corporate interests, with the social platform being nothing more than an adaptable and adjustable tool used to secure the votes of the rural poor. What the establishment probably plans to do is wait for the gay rights issue to be mostly settled by the judiciary (reducing its utility as a campaign issue for the democrats). Then they can go "welp, too bad, we tried, law of the land, nothing we can do about it now. But let me tell you about how The Liberals want to use Your hard-earned tax dollars to purchase abortion-fetuses from the Urban Youth, for use during their heathen islamic moon-rituals" and continue on their merry way. They've been at this for a long time and have gotten very good at slipping around setbacks to preserve their regressivism. Local/regional conservative interests can delay this evolution by choosing to die on the hill of gay-bashing, but ultimately I'd expect most of them to get in line.
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Apr 1, 2015 19:47
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how the gently caress could somebody possibly use over 230 gallons per day
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Apr 2, 2015 17:37
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I enjoyed how obama's response to joe the plumber was effectively identical to a speech martin sheen gave in the west wing, but where Fiction treated it as a Rousing And Inspiring moment, Real Life treated it as one of the foundational moments of a reactionary movement. people are real dumb
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Apr 3, 2015 22:06
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who is gay?
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Apr 3, 2015 22:33
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Hollismason posted:I got a strange question and figured someone here would be able to answer it, but it regards the aging of the Republican party. At some point these people have to die, is it speculated when this will happen Presumably the hardcore Reagan lovers are all dead in 20 years not withstanding miracle science, so we'll be left with Paul Ryans and Ted Cruzs who are incredibly polarizing. "I'm socially liberal and fiscally conservative" is a super common political position in the Middle, particularly among suburbanites, professionals and the white youth (though these might not articulate their position as such). The GoP can drastically increase its appeal among these people if it moderates its social platform. The future trajectory of the Republican party depends upon when/how it manages to liberalize its positions on gay rights, minority rights (where this concerns equality under the law, not equality in actuality), weed and religious tolerance. They still need their good ol' boy ex-Dixiecrats and high plains luddites, but if they can keep those guys from being such a vocal part of the party, people will have no trouble electing stern white Mr. Businessmen like romneys, rauners, snyders, etc
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Apr 4, 2015 15:31
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baw posted:At this point they cannot afford to lose the Evangelical vote, and those groups built their influence by being vocal. They will not go quietly. There's no guarantee they would immediately lose the evangelical vote as soon as they started to liberalize (to an extent that would matter in the General elections, at least. It would immediately affect the primaries). Realignments take time. The whole reason the Southern Strategy worked is that the GoP precipitated a realignment and then managed to hang onto the liberal coastal republicans for a good while longer than the democrats managed to hold onto the South. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Apr 4, 2015 |
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Apr 4, 2015 15:47
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baw posted:The primaries is really a bottleneck though, and anyone who wants a chance has to cater to the idiots. Mitt Romney (previously a very moderate/liberal republican throughout his careerin massechutsetts) had no trouble winning the nomination in 2012, courtesy of money and name-recognition. You don't have to be a frothing-at-the-mouth evangelical to win the nom. You just need strong resources and a willingness to lie about your beliefs for several months straight.
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Apr 4, 2015 16:07
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baw posted:Gay rights is becoming the hill that the Evangelical wing is going to take their stand on. I think you overestimate gay rights' ability to command single-issue voters among the Right, baw sure the republican base loves oppressing gays, but they also love opposing abortion, crushing blacks with regressive fiscal policy and increasingly-stealthy forms of segregation, blowing up brown people and various other things, probably a bit more. Gay rights isn't nearly the kind of party-killing fracture point that civil rights was for the democrats in the 60s/70s. There isn't the same visceral fear and urgency, for one thing, gays being fewer in number and not identifiable by sight. I don't think John in Norfolk and Raylene in Columbia lie awake at night, fearful that a gay horde will at any moment batter down their doors and ravish their spouses, whereas white folks absolutely felt and continue to feel that way about blacks. They may love to mock and belittle and complain about gays, but, excepting some people who are fringe-y even among the evangelical bloc, probably don't perceive them as a constant and aggressive existential threat. To the baseline cryptoconservative mindset, gay are just one symptom of general societal decadence. Racism will always be bigger in conservative american politics than homophobia. I fully expect the Republicans to find some way to continue their oppression of blacks/latinos/indians while at least appearing to be pro-gay within the near future. i.e. by becoming increasingly libertarianized.
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Apr 4, 2015 16:29
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baw posted:You should read the Freep thread or listen to Rush. It's a battle for the heart of America to the conservative faithful. I don't need to do those things, baw. I live in a deeply conservative state and am surrounded by conservatives all the time. And I can tell you that conservatives will say to themselves "pfft, I don't care about queers, let 'em do what they want" long, long before they will ever agree to try and construct a more equitable economic system or show tolerance to nonwhites. And that's the regular blue-collar voters: John P. Harvard the wall-street shark who writes all the bills already don't care. There's a reason the gay culture wars have produced a stereotypical gay image constructed around white affluence. Everyone understands that these things are the key to acceptance. American conservatism will ebb and flow and adjust its rhetoric and tactics, but it is not going to implode anytime soon.
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Apr 4, 2015 16:53
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DemeaninDemon posted:What about Scott Walker? Or he too busy pissing on the ashes of Wisconsin still? walker will be a very boring debate presence compared to the rest of the field. he will cower in one corner while Very Serious NeoConservative Man frantically tries to fend off the various foaming-at-the-mouth attack dogs. Scott Walker don't really register when you've got a Paul, ted cruz, huckabee, santorum, carson, carly fiorina, chris cristy
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Apr 6, 2015 19:04
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Relentlessboredomm posted:Jim Webb baby. quote:“He’s been thinking about it since 2013,” says Dave “Mudcat” Saunders, a Democratic political hand in Virginia who says he chats or emails with Webb several times each week. “He thinks – deep, deep, deep, deep thinker. The guy’s regal, man. He’s a drat hero. I’m doing whatever I can to help him.”  oh god i love southern democrats
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Apr 6, 2015 19:22
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build special grocery stores for poors, stock only with hardtack, fatback and grog.
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Apr 7, 2015 16:09
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Talmonis posted:GROG!? Tha poors shouldn't be able to buy liquor on mah dime! without an allotment of crude alcohol the urban hordes will run riot in the streets, fool they must be allowed certain vices to keep them docile
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Apr 7, 2015 16:15
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dont neglect your Respectability Politics zoux sound like yaer gettin' pretty bellig'rent
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Apr 7, 2015 16:25
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god I love my state. Moronic ultraconservative Hal Heiner currently leading GoP primary polling for KY governorship. I applaud this, as he is the candidate least equipped to upset the eventual Democratic nominee.
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Apr 8, 2015 05:28
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My Imaginary GF posted:Careful what you wish for, lest you end up with Joe Walsh: southern edition. I don't mean heiner can't win because he is too extreme, I mean he can't win because he is, through some cosmic happenstance, uniquely poorly-placed among the GoP field to attack Democratic weaknesses. Dems' presumptive nominee, attorney general Jack Conway, is a slick biglaw type from Louisville. State GoP has been banking on overcoming democratic institutional momentum and fiscal advantage by exploiting cultural resentments. Their establishment candidate, agriculture comissioner jim comer, is ideal for this, being a big corn-fed farm dude from the rural hinterlands. Heiner, though, is a fatcat Louisville financier. How can you attack your opponent for being a Louisville fatcat if you are yourself a Louisville fatcat? He's Joe Walsh only if Joe Walsh were a texan cowboy who would ride up and spit sunflower seeds at collar county suburbanites' dogs. Heiner is also more effete than Conway, meaning that he will have a harder time taking advantage should people discover (or start to suspect) that Conway is a secret gay, as the commonwealth law-office rumor mill suggests. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Apr 8, 2015 |
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Apr 8, 2015 05:46
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My Imaginary GF posted:You overestimate the impact of hypocracy upon voting. Far more important is party identification and money. You underestimate the importance of civility/respectability politics in the midsouth. you can win a statewide with a couple hundred grand and maybe a third of voters are registered with the party they will reliably vote for. Turnout's pretty stagnant (low), no real electioneering machinery. "Candidate who spends the most wins the most" is not nearly as reliable an axiom as it is in bigger, wealthier states. Still a trend, sure, but not by the same margins. The key here is not to fill the airwaves with messaging and plausibly-deniable attack ads, but to generate vaguely adequate name-recognition without bothering anybody or seeming like you really want to win. Push too hard, people figure you're hifalutin' and you lose. Conway hopefully learned this lesson from the severe backfiring of his anti-Rand campaign in '10. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 07:52 on Apr 8, 2015 |
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Apr 8, 2015 07:44
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hobbesmaster posted:Doesn't help that the typical democratic response to Jack Conway is "ugh". At least he's not Lunsford. Governor Jim Gray would be troublesome but I would back the hell out of him if he wanted to run for Senate
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Apr 8, 2015 16:40
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Rincewinds posted:What about President Taft? woodrow Wilson
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Apr 9, 2015 16:36
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Hey! Long pork is delicious read this as "Huey Long pork is delicious"
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Apr 10, 2015 07:50
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Hot Dog Day #91 posted:Cruz is an appellate lawyer. They're typically very, very smart people.But they focus on one set of narrow issues at a time. Oral arguments in front of courts of appeals give you months and months to prepare for a twenty to thirty minute argument. It's a difficult thing to be very good at. Cruz was a literal champion debater in college, which I think is responsible for more of the "Ted Cruz will crush his enemies, see them driven before him on the debate stage, hear the lamentations of their women" thing than his law career. It's a vastly more extemporaneous thing than any kind of real-world legal practice is. But both competetive debate and Law are about procedural wrangling, thoroughness, consistency, etc. Whereas a televised poltiical debate is theatre. It is about giving good soundbites and Seeming Cool. Is cruz good at that? probably not, at least when he's dealing with a more general audience than his own base.
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Apr 10, 2015 16:13
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greatn posted:I think Hillary won't run a particularly good campaign, misogyny will turn out to be more powerful than racism, and she'll lose to Rand Paul, attacking her from the left on foreign policy and criminal justice to siphon off enough youth vote. rand paul will never win an office outside of a wave year in an impoverished poo poo state that can be overwhelmed by far-flung libertarian dark money the man does not know how to interact with other human beings
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Apr 10, 2015 19:45
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zoux posted:You could always vote GREEN PARTY ahahahaha. vote for frank zeidler's ghost
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Apr 10, 2015 19:53
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Doctor Butts posted:Yes but I feel that if I don't someone worse will be in power. what state you live in, bud?
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Apr 10, 2015 19:56
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dreffen posted:Suppose there's always a good chance to bond over mutual dislike for the Packers. The Packers should be the next prize Minnesota claims from the drifting, derelict husk of Wisconsin.
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Apr 11, 2015 14:37
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My Imaginary GF posted:The real question I want to see asked of Paul, what is his favorite house on Game of Thrones? Martell, due to his hatred of Israel
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Apr 11, 2015 19:14
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My Imaginary GF posted:Wrong answer. how you figure
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Apr 11, 2015 23:50
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greatn posted:Biden is more photogenic than Obama. the rule doesn't really account for situations where both halves of the ticket are 10s
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Apr 12, 2015 05:25
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I don't think the GoP dealsmen are dumb enough to give their veep nod to another bland white hard-right idiot from Wisconsin. Particularly when this one isn't even handsome. Would give it about 70% that it goes to one of rubio, martinez or sandoval. They know they aren't gonna make inroads with the black vote anytime soon (no, not even with ben carson or Tim Scott), but have not given up on the "hispanics are secret conservatives" thing yet and will probably double down on attempts to appeal to them. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Apr 12, 2015 |
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Apr 12, 2015 06:05
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I really enjoy ashton carter's attitude. he's always like "...and?" in the most demurely technocratic way ever what is this congressional function, i could be reading a paper right now PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 15:36 on Apr 12, 2015 |
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Apr 12, 2015 15:33
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Rincewinds posted:So some commentator was on TV here in Soviet Scandinavia and said that Hillary only had 14.7 % chance (he did not explain how he got that number) to win, while Jeb Bush was going was to win, after knocking out Rubio. As they have been saying less dumb poo poo than most of the republican clown brigade, are they the most likely candidates and will they be able to appeal to other voters after putting on clown makeup for teabaggers? How well can the Aryan socialists comprehend the cultural and political dynamics of Red America? not too well I'd wager
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Apr 13, 2015 16:58
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rubio surprised everybody, announces he is hella gay
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Apr 13, 2015 18:00
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Mark Kirk sure knows how to reference the one black scientist your elementary school teaches you about during Black History Month
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Apr 13, 2015 22:06
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Quidam Viator posted:I did formally post a toxx if anyone can convince me of a better way to undo the total dominance of the American Right in a better way than accelerationism, With dogs, and the knife.
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Apr 14, 2015 14:52
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Zeitgueist posted:That's what I mean...an elaborate plan to eject rich people to mars to die. let's spread rumors about how The Earth will soon explode, Krypton-style The ensuing rush to build private space arks will create many blue-collar jobs, and at the end we shoot the wealthy into the sun. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Apr 14, 2015 |
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Apr 14, 2015 18:52
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Popular Thug Drink posted:its really dumb to shoehorn humans into interstellar space when the far more logical thing to do is to create artifical life to carry on our legacy robots can't bang
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Apr 14, 2015 20:25
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