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I bought it on the "Joe Doesn't Run" at 48 thru 50 cents per share. I just don't see it happening. Gonna keep my eyes on the news next couple weeks though
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Aug 21, 2015 20:00
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Christ. I bought No shares waaaayyy too early. First boneheaded move I've made on this site. Now, we wait.....
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Aug 26, 2015 19:00
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Yeah, I was going to try and get in on one more SELL NO buy , but that site crashed quickkkk
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Oct 21, 2015 17:22
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So now that the Biden show is over, what's everyone hopping onto next for QUICK CASH? Thinking about buying Rubio at 0.42 then selling once the field clears a bit and he nabs a few endorsements.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:32
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My sale of NOs at .98 went through just now as well.
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Oct 21, 2015 19:49
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Yeah I'm buying up a bunch at 88 -- with that much of the Tea Party saying they'll vote for him, it's essentially over. No one else will have nearly enough support.
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Oct 22, 2015 14:03
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Made a small but good short term return by getting in on the Democrats winning the LA Gov's race at .28, and getting out at .39. Vitter has been horrid in the 1-on-1 polls lately against JBE, I'm wondering if I got out too soon.
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Oct 23, 2015 13:51
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah but doesn't the jungle primary basically guarantee a republican win? Right now the democrat has like 40% of the vote compared to the republicans splitting at something like 38, 10, and 5, but since the democrat won't win with 50%, they go to a run off of the top 2 and the republicans come out to vote for their second place guy and he ends up with 53%. Not necessarily. Vitter has a lot of detractors among Republicans, and even if he comes out with a plurality of the Rep share in the jungle primary, there may be a lot of disaffected Reps not happy with Jindal and Vitter and the current state of LA politics. Not that this guarantees a JBE win, but with unfavorables so high, it gives JBE a reasonable chance in a 2-way runoff. At least more reasonable than Dems usually have in LA Gubernatorial elections. The post-jungle primary polls will really indicate whether or not Vitter's in as weak a position as he appears to be.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:41
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Major run on debt ceiling -- up to 90% yes no. This might be why: http://thehill.com/policy/finance/258091-white-house-gop-near-two-year-budget-deal I got in at 88 cents. Seems like a great short-term bet to me. railroad terror has issued a correction as of 18:16 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 18:13
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I initially bought Webb "YES" shares and then cut my losses because of the reasoning everyone's already given. Webb doesn't seem like the type to run a vanity campaign if the funding's not there, though I guess you could call his previous run for the Dem nomination exactly that. He's making lots of noise and going on talk radio right now but it hasn't really amounted to anything in terms of fundraising or staffing up.
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Oct 26, 2015 20:44
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Now that Biden's out, wouldn't that favor the "Polling Gives Bernie At Least 25% By 10/31" market? It hasn't been a great month for Sanders, but if another poll does come out in the next few days, it seems unlikely it's going to be at 22 or below. 85 cents is a bargain IMO.
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Oct 27, 2015 14:11
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Yeah, I wish I had more cash on the site, I would have just dumped it all into debt limit.
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Oct 28, 2015 13:48
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Poll market, but Ramussen already has Obama at 50% approval in its latest update. You can currently get Obama YES @ 46% approval or higher for around 70 cents. After the Rass update, it'll go from 45.8 to above. Some small risk, but I like the chances. e: up to 85% now that the new Rasmussen is in. This is basically a sure thing at this point. railroad terror has issued a correction as of 16:41 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 16:23
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The comments can actually be useful in figuring out the trajectory of certain markets. Luckily, there's just as many morons betting the exact opposite as what the trends say.
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Oct 29, 2015 17:08
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Wow, looks like people with Gallup Analytics are thinking a high number from that poll is dropping from the average tomorrow. Down to 0.46. Jesus Christ, these polls are making me thirsty
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Oct 29, 2015 18:07
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I've been with 4 for 4 when I've played with the polling markets in the last two weeks. This might be the one that bites me. If it gets back up to .70 for YES on 46% or higher, I'm probably getting out. The GA people officially have me spooked on this one.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:11
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Well, the polls for at least 3 out of the last 5 days were at least .48 or higher according to that GA screenshot somebody posted. So, definitely likely, but hardly more than a 55-60% chance maybe. Somebody great at probability on the fly can probably figure it out.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:40
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I'll lose some on the Obama poll market, but I luckily balanced most of it out by doing well on the debate market last night. My strategy of buying low on some of the candidates and selling quickly after they said a few good zingers and went up in the market worked out. I may be out of the poll markets after today, too. Had a good run, but..no more.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:27
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thethreeman posted:My Bush, Bernie, and Carson NOs are doing well this week... Hoping polls show a bit of drainage from Carson to Cruz after the debate. I originally got in for the Dems winning @ 29-30, got out at about .40, then quickly bought back in again. The fact is this is an off-year election in a deep red state. Someone had a good quote, and it's that the race will come down to whether voters hate Obama more than they dislike Vitter. Hard to say. 50/50 seems about right, but I like Bel Edwards' chances in this one.
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Oct 29, 2015 19:30
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Milk Malk posted:Rasmussen has a 51 today. I still decided to get out at .70 -- exactly where I got in. Don't know what Gallup's going to do now, so I didn't want to risk it. Put the rest of my available money in Jeb NO for the nomination. Just gonna let that sit for a while.
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Oct 30, 2015 14:32
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If I worked at RCP, I'd totally either have a PredictIt account or have somoene do it for me. It'd be too easy not to. Also, man, Webb keeps making more and more and more noise. I have zero money in that market for whether or not he runs now, but all he has to do is file with the FEC.
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Oct 31, 2015 22:12
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Aliquid posted:I invested in Conway to win months ago at like .80; seems like a done deal but off-year Democrat turnout is weird so iunno There's undoubtedly a small risk with Conway. Polls are sometimes wrong (remember when Mongiardo nearly upset Bunning?) and it's KY, and it's off year, but holy crap Bevin is a bad candidate. It'd be VERY surprising if he went from 40-42 in the polls right now, and eked out a win with 46-47% of the vote (assuming the left-leaning independent takes 7-10% away from Conway).
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Oct 31, 2015 22:14
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railroad terror posted:If I worked at RCP, I'd totally either have a PredictIt account or have somoene do it for me. It'd be too easy not to. My gut was right here railroad terror posted:There's undoubtedly a small risk with Conway. Polls are sometimes wrong (remember when Mongiardo nearly upset Bunning?) and it's KY, and it's off year, but holy crap Bevin is a bad candidate. It'd be VERY surprising if he went from 40-42 in the polls right now, and eked out a win with 46-47% of the vote (assuming the left-leaning independent takes 7-10% away from Conway). And holy poo poo my gut was dead wrong here. That was an interesting week.
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Nov 5, 2015 17:20
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Can someone better explain hedging bets on PredictIt? Like, if I were to invest either way on various candidates on the "Who's Dropping Out Next?" market, how would I calculate what to invest on each of the candidates likeliest to drop out in order to avoid a loss, but still potentially make a profit?
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Nov 5, 2015 19:45
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I made some money on Carson when the market overreacted to the POLITICO story -- got in on the bottom, sold each share for about a 6-8c profit when it slightly rebounded. THat's the ticket; have Twitter updates to let you know about a big possible story outbreak, then hop on and enjoy the ride as PredictIt overreacts
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Nov 9, 2015 14:56
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My betting on JEB! Yes at .17 worked out. Sold all my shares at .21, bought back in. I'm thinking he goes up to at least .24 or .25 by some point after some drop outs.
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Nov 13, 2015 16:22
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Necc0 posted:Couple of days ago I was thinking he was probably going to drop out but he has an absolutely insane amount of SuperPAC money behind him so there's no way they'll let him. That campaign will get cut to the bone before it's allowed to die Yeah, I mean, I'll cut my losses if it starts looking real grim, but there's too much money with Jeb! for him to not stay in till at least January.
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Nov 13, 2015 17:17
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Aliquid posted:That's great news for Carson < 22%. Just about locks up Rubio at 10%+ too.
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Nov 13, 2015 17:44
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I like carson at 10 cents simply because I kind of see that as his floor in that state for the next month or two. But then again, I wouldn't be looking to make a 90 cent profit per share on this, I'd be comfortable getting out a lot quicker than that.
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Nov 23, 2015 21:45
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Gyges posted:I loving love this linking on the huge markets like RNOM. I've got $50 in and as long as Mitt Romney isn't the nominee I'm making $200 - $400. Are you betting "YES" on every candidate, or something else?
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Dec 1, 2015 20:17
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Anyone else gambling a bit on some of the Repub Nomination YES bets now that the market is linked? For me, I'm gambling the nomination is going to come down to one of the following people: Rubio Cruz Christie Kasich I have a good amount of shares of Cruz @ 23 (he's at 26 now, considering getting out and buying back in), Christie at 6, and Kasich at 3. I'm wary about the Rubio shares I do own because I feel like he's still overvalued at 40. I don't believe The Donald has any real shot at the delegates necessary to win, and if there's a "comeback kid" moment in New Hampshire, I feel like it will belong to either Christie or Kasich.
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Dec 4, 2015 15:58
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Ugh, I got killed on the Medical Device Tax market. I didn't read the language close enough, but I also didn't think they'd get that poo poo into the CR-spending bill.
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Dec 16, 2015 21:27
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Ugh. Trying to sell my Trump shares but can't. site too slow. fuckkk.
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Feb 2, 2016 03:18
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Well, I lost big with Trump, but I'm getting back on the train. There was so much fluctuation last night, hope some people made out big. What's everyone looking at now for some potential rebound stocks with the market settling a bit before NH? I'm considering the potentially disastrous strategy of going back in on Trump again depending on what the next 1-2 polls look like. He may have underperformed in a caucus state with little organization, but if he polls show him way outside the margin of error in a primary state like NH, then I think it's a good bet.
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Feb 2, 2016 16:02
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 Well it's not much, but hey, it's profit!
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Feb 3, 2016 15:50
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Peachstapler posted:Free money? Yes please. Dear God that's beautiful. I wish I had seen all of this sooner. God people are stupid.
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Feb 3, 2016 16:05
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Peachstapler posted:I only searched for a few minutes but I found several articles from this week stating that among Cruz and Trump supporters in NH, Rubio is a popular second choice. NH voters who have Bush and Kasisch as first choices have been indicating they'll vote for Rubio if only to coalesce around an anti-Trump/Cruz. I like Rubio for 2nd here, too -- he's more palatable than Cruz, and the nature of it being a primary, not a caucus, does lend to more people sticking to their guns with Bush and Christie, etc. There won't be Rubio or Cruz supporters in the polling booths to convince Jeb! supporters to change their vote.
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Feb 4, 2016 16:13
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Easy money to be made if Bernie cruises to a double digit NH win --- his 25c to win the nomination will inevitably have a short spike. e: A clean $48 to be made for anyone with the max to put down on CRUZ NO to win NH --- 1000+ shares available at 94c. railroad terror has issued a correction as of 18:11 on Feb 4, 2016 |
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Feb 4, 2016 17:57
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Adar posted:Sanders is in the low 90's, so buying Sanders Yes is 10%. What you have to ask is if Bernie of the likely 20-30 point lead and definite 50% threshold = more or less than 3 times as safe as Trump. This is what I'm doing for now --- I have $500 in for Hillary NO in NH. A nice 10% return in 5 days that's way safer than Trump.
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Feb 5, 2016 14:53
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Brand new market for whether Fiorina will make it to the debate. Could be interesting.
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Feb 5, 2016 23:55
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