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tinstaach posted:If I'm reading their rules right, don't they take a 1% cut on all profits, plus 5% on withdrawals? It's actually 10% on all profits, plus 5% for withdrawals. misdirectomy posted:Are you guys in the US? I tried to sign up but it said it wasn't available in my location. Do you think it's a glitch, or is it a state by state thing? I want to make easy money off the political delusions of others. It isn't available in some states that have strict online gambling laws. There's a list on wikipedia but I don't know how accurate it is, because I'm in Washington and I signed up just fine.
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Aug 21, 2015 21:16
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NotWearingPants posted:Isn't gambling on a presidential election a federal crime? No?
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Aug 23, 2015 05:32
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Prediction markets aren't exactly a new thing. Predictit in particular went ahead and cleared themselves with the CFTC in advance, so they wont end up getting their poo poo kicked in like Intrade did.
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Aug 23, 2015 05:44
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Joe Biden better not loving run. 
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Aug 24, 2015 22:36
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Thanks to whoever said the Iran veto thing was a safe bet, I made $60 on that today.
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Sep 2, 2015 06:33
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah that's my biggest money maker right now. I could sell and get about, what, 90 bucks right now? But I'm thinking I should hold out for the solid 100. My question is, when would they declare "Okay this is obviously a no." When the resolution denying the deal passes? It might make more sense to get the 90 and screw with it if that takes 3 weeks or more. Me, I already sold. Used the money to buy a bunch of no shares for Carson.
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Sep 2, 2015 19:06
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Yoshifan823 posted:Hottt Tipppp: Personally, I always avoid that market. It just seems like such a crapshoot to try and predict a number that's going to be within the margin of error on the poll. As long as we're throwing out these protips, I'd say now's a good time to bet against Carson's poll numbers. The no shares are 20 cents each right now, and I really can't see the guy maintaining this rise until the end of the month. He's a huge idiot, but unlike Trump, he's quiet and soft spoken.
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Sep 3, 2015 22:50
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tinstaach posted:It's funny how the get-rich-quick possibilties make us dissatisfied with getting a 10% ROI in a week. To be fair, unless you're constantly throwing around a full $850, a 10% ROI in a single market isn't really that spectacular. e: for perspective, in the two months I've been using the site, I've managed to make a full 500% return just by not being a moron. Wanamingo has issued a correction as of 18:59 on Sep 8, 2015 |
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Sep 8, 2015 18:56
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Vox Nihili posted:I feel like the only way to achieve that outcome is to get in on new markets from the start or assume a pretty substantial amount of risk. I'm not exactly a political genius, and I'm only bothering with the barest of strategic betting. I would assume that there are other people here who are managing to do loads better than I am. 
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Sep 8, 2015 19:40
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Vox Nihili posted:Which markets have you been playing in, if you don't mind me asking? Here's what I have right now. I'm planning on selling the Biden shares as soon as possible because I don't think he's going to run, and I got burned on the Palmer one because I didn't clear some buy orders. Occasionally I'll bet on the direction of the country and congressional approval markets if they seem safe enough. I think my biggest individual win so far has been betting that Trump will not have the largest drop in the polls following the first debate.  Pretty much my strategy is to sell once I've made a reasonable profit instead of waiting for the market to close, and to never bet on any of the absolute crapshoots like the Gallup approval rating.
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Sep 8, 2015 20:20
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Gyges posted:What is going on with Will "Right Direction" poll at 28.5%+ on September 11? Check the comments, Reuters released a new poll at 25% and it just hasn't been added to RCP yet.
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Sep 10, 2015 23:28
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Necc0 posted:On the one hand I thought the PI guys would be a bit more immune to rumors Hahaha, that's a good one.
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Sep 20, 2015 00:34
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Necc0 posted:The Republican primary market has remained really stable despite different candidates moving around in the polls but I guess most of the volatility in the Biden market is being driven by it's relatively short deadline. The republican primary market is giving Trump and Kasich equal odds now, and Jeb is still considered the most likely to win. I just noticed that there's a section for markets that are having the the largest swings in prices, how long has that been there?
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Sep 20, 2015 00:46
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Aliquid posted:I just got back in on Biden NO Same here. At 30 cents each, I'd be a fool NOT to buy them 
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Sep 21, 2015 06:51
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tinstaach posted:Uhh If you ask me, that's rules lawyery enough to get them to close the contract. I think I'll bail on it and take my meager amounts of profits while I still can.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:39
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Necc0 posted:Seriously it was filed over a month ago I don't think there's anything to it Yeah, but on the other hand, Bobby Jindal.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:46
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https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1223/Will-congressional-job-approval-be-at-least-15-on-September-25 Looks like no here might be a decent buy at 20 cents. RCP has it at 15.2% right now, the latest poll was at 11%, and the next poll to be removed will be a 17%.
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Sep 22, 2015 18:02
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Stereotype posted:This was a good bet and I won a dollar so thank you Should've went bigger, I sold already and won like $20.
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Sep 23, 2015 18:54
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A Time To Chill posted:I wish the shutdown market wasn't so stable. I was hoping for big swings when I bought in. Ayup. I bought a bunch of yes shares early on expecting them to go up, and just today switched to no at a small loss because I didn't want to get caught with my pants down when they pass the continuing resolution.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:07
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Necc0 posted:Nope. Technically all the planets could align and the caucuses declare support for Walker out of the loving blue. They probably won't close it until the RNC What? It's set to close a week after a candidate suspends their campaign. Check the rules.
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Sep 25, 2015 06:27
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Vox Nihili posted:Yep, you can make $10 dozens of times but when you lose a big bet it really brings things back down to earth. I still made money on that yes bet, though Just out of curiosity, were you caught with your pants down while trading on the market swings or did you think that there was actually going to be a shutdown?
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Sep 26, 2015 07:42
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Looks like no on both the direction of the country and congressional approvals are good buys this week. Both have an old poll propping the number up, and after RCP got rid of the old polls from the presidential primaries the other day, I'd say it's likely they'll get rid of these too.
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Sep 26, 2015 21:29
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Just from the tone of it, it sounds like they're trying to get people to bet on the outcome that they actually think will happen instead of throwing all money down on everything and still managing to come out ahead.
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Sep 30, 2015 03:00
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When was the last time an actually serious candidate decided to declare this late in the game?
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Sep 30, 2015 23:06
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Looks like the details on the linked contract pricing have been posted https://www.predictit.org/About/LinkedContractPricing
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Oct 6, 2015 00:59
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There are a few weirdos in the McCarthy market talking about how democrats might vote for the guy, Joe Biden isn't the only thing people there are being stupid about.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:32
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Me, I just wish I had bought in when it was 10 cents instead of 27.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:57
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Necc0 posted:lmfao McCarthy Wanamingo posted:Me, I just wish I had bought in when it was 10 cents instead of 27. Quoting myself to say that literally just last night, I was so sure he wasn't going to win that I almost sold everything else I had just so I could stick all my eggs in that one basket. Really wish I had done that.
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Oct 8, 2015 19:42
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Apparently that draft Biden PAC put together a TV commercial trying to get Biden to run, and today he asked them to not air it. This is a sign that he's leaning towards entering the race. 
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Oct 9, 2015 03:37
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Yeah, I have yes shares and yes, I really do think he's gonna run. How deep are you into it?
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Oct 13, 2015 06:59
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Abel Wingnut posted:made about 60% of my funds on tonight's debate. time to put most of that on BIDENNO? seems kind of expensive at $.57, but he has to decide soon, right? I'd say wait a little bit, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it went back down.
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Oct 14, 2015 03:59
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quote:Wtf is going on in that market!! Will hillary really be over 40% she is horrible deviseve candidate!!
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Oct 14, 2015 06:07
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Betting against Sanders' monthly poll numbers seems pretty good right now. It's 36 cents for a no share, he's sitting at 25.1% right now, and the next poll to drop will be one that had him at 35%. Not exactly a guaranteed bet, but I like it. e: betting against Paul Ryan being the next speaker seems pretty smart, too.
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Oct 14, 2015 15:24
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At this point, I have around 90% of my money sitting on Biden NO. Once the rest of my shares mature I'll probably make it 100%. Let's do this.
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Oct 17, 2015 20:37
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Looks like I picked the perfect time to sell half my Biden No shares yesterday, now I can buy even more while they're so low.Aliquid posted:There is no way I'm selling at all-time lows. If he runs, we're going down together.
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Oct 19, 2015 18:08
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A Time To Chill posted:I do believe there's an outside chance Biden is crazy enough to do something stupid like run, so I'm not gonna put in anymore money. But when he doesn't run I'm gonna feel really bad about missing out on a quintupling up event. I've been in that exact same situation twice before, both times I regretted not betting more. Going hog wild this time.
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Oct 19, 2015 19:26
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Aliquid posted:At one point I was down $32 today, just capped this: That's all? I'm sitting pretty at over 1400 Biden shares right now.
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Oct 19, 2015 20:45
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Zeta Taskforce posted:My reading of the rules is that if Webb drops out as a Democrat but launches an independent campaign then this doesn't count as a drop out. Does anyone else have a different reading? That's not an exclusive or, once any of those conditions are satisfied the contract will pay out.
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Oct 20, 2015 02:30
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EngineerSean posted:I sold my Bernie.LoseDebate NO shares for 20, locking in a total profit of 200 assuming that Hillary isn't actually the biggest loser. Now I just have to worry about this one  
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Oct 20, 2015 04:12
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Vox Nihili posted:Nice cost basis. That's pretty much all from the swing this morning, two days ago I had some 800 shares for a 43 cent average.
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Oct 20, 2015 04:42
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