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pathetic little tramp posted:drat, the amount of salt in the comments is amazing, bunch of people really upset they can't sell out their thousands of YES shares that are now worthless. quote:Moose - as funny as your gloating is, please take this opportunity to educate us pitiful yes holders: how did you know? What kept you on team no even despite multiple leaks suggesting yes? What kept most of us on team NO? Perhaps when the source of those leaks was Willam Kristol? LOL!
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Oct 21, 2015 18:30
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Combed Thunderclap posted:All my offers have now gone through and are showing up normally, things seem to be back on track. Nice! Mine went through at 98. I managed to get a buy order for 500 YES in front of the one for 106,918. I think they will be worth 3 or 4 in a week. But wow is 106,918 possible? Isn't this worth $1,069.81, thus violating the $850 rule?
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Oct 21, 2015 20:00
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I blew my time budget for the month managing my Biden. It was fun but I'm splitting all my money into Gore not running for President, Gingrich not being speaker, Fiorina and Bush not hitting their numbers and Carson hitting his. If all goes well I will make another $10 or so.
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Oct 22, 2015 04:00
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Gyges posted:Anyone have any idea about the Portugal elections for the Prime Minister? The prices on it are insanely disparate so there's probably some decent money to be made. Right now you can buy Yes ant 72 and No at 85, with sell offers at 15 and 28 respectively. It looks like they had their own Biden moment where something that seemed likely in many people's eyes suddenly reversed, except in a market with barely any liquidity. There are only 393 shares outstanding so I doubt there will be much in the way of money to be made.
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Oct 22, 2015 05:10
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There is a new Obama approval market out after a short absence. They are pure gambling, but I'm going to do an experiment to see if I can outsmart it. I'm going to buy 3 dollars worth of NO in each tranche (or as close to $3 as I can) each day. That is $15 per day. After 7 days I will have invested $105, which is more than I like to have invested in something, but seeing how I would be winning 4 out of 5, there is no circumstance where I would be losing most of it. But I will see if systematic dollar cost averaging will yield benefits, where I would be buying more on temporary dips and less on temporary spikes. It won't work if the polls are remarkably stable and I am dumping 20% of my money into a hole and the other 80% marginally pay out, but normally there are wild swings every day back and forth, so I should be picking up some very cheap shares that eventually pay out I will report back how I did.
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Oct 23, 2015 23:00
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Aliquid posted:Well, I did not want to put this out there until I gobbled up all the RP He gobbled up ALL the shares? Today's volume was 894. And there are 33,352 outstanding. Me thinks someone can't do math.
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Oct 24, 2015 02:31
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JohnnyPalace posted:I hope that causes other establishment candidates to gain on Trump, because I'm almost maxed on Trump NO for the nomination. This could be a dangerous position to be maxed out on. He is proving that he is not a Herman Cain or Michelle Bachman. He has been leading for 3 months now. He is not going to blow up. He survived the debates, he had right wing talk radio behind him. Giuliani led for a long time in 2007 but they could not be different candidates. Giuliani put all his eggs in Florida for some reason. Trump is building up a substantial ground game everywhere and he is not forgetting the early states. But the Giuliani's biggest problem seemed to be that the more people were exposed to him, the less they liked him. Trump is the opposite. His negatives are way down. When you watch him talk he's funny, he's off the cuff and he's having a good time. Never overestimate the intelligence of the average Republican voter If I were in your place I would be selling. Not dumping, but always have an offer out there hanging out between the bid and ask price. You don't need to sell all, but a good chunk anyway. You can't have lost a lot of money yet, but this could be a long slow bleed for you.
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Oct 25, 2015 18:46
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Bush not hitting 10% has to be the safest bet on there right now that is going to yield more than 1 or 2% that has a short end date. RCP is using 3 8's, a 7 and a 5. In the past month, there have been zero polls above 10%, exactly 1 at 10% and everything else below. Yet the comments are peppered with people thinking that a massive ad buy is going to save him or he will get some bump from the debate, which he won't but even if he did, it's not until the 28th.
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Oct 25, 2015 20:10
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I don't know why they can't just leave the markets that are already out untouched, say oops, apologize to the academics who are supposed to be collecting data on all this, and going forward start linking the new markets. I tend to buy a lot more NO than YES, so if anything I would be helped by it, but it ends up being this elephant in the room that holds a lot of activity back. They should put out a new market so we can bet on when they will start linking markets nachos posted:Debt limit raised by Nov 3rd YES shares are like 70 cents right now. That seems really undervalued. Maybe, but I am still holding onto some NO. I see it trading higher and if they don't raise it until November 4 or 5th, I doubt it will be the apocalypse and it will still resolve as NO. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 05:02 on Oct 26, 2015 |
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Oct 26, 2015 04:56
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railroad terror posted:Major run on debt ceiling -- up to 90% yes no. I just switched sides. I only had 50 shares at about 25, so I lost about $7.50 on it. But honestly, this is good news and its nice to see sanity break out once in awhile
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Oct 26, 2015 18:44
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It was highly speculative while I wait for my big bets on Newt not being speaker and Jeb! missing his poll number to pay out. I know I'm talking into the wind, but what they should do with the linking the long term markets like president is announce that as of a certain date, like 30 days from now, they are going to close the market, pay everyone out, not take their cut should someone be up, and then relaunch it fresh.
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Oct 26, 2015 18:58
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pathetic little tramp posted:Ha I bought into that market 82 cents when it first came out. People in this thread always get the bigger profit margins, I swear. People brag about the ones they hit right. But long term it's not about maximizing every cent out of every trade. Just be right more than you're wrong and more than anything avoid the huge devastating losses that leave you in a deep hole. They say you will starve on Wall Street if you eat like a bird and poo poo like an elephant.
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Oct 26, 2015 19:44
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railroad terror posted:Now that Biden's out, wouldn't that favor the "Polling Gives Bernie At Least 25% By 10/31" market? It hasn't been a great month for Sanders, but if another poll does come out in the next few days, it seems unlikely it's going to be at 22 or below. 85 cents is a bargain IMO. I cringe saying this, but Trump hitting 25% is probably a safer bet with similar payoff. It was around 92 yesterday, fell to about 87 right now because a 22% came out. But there is a 32% out there too, the polls dropping off won't make a difference and not enough time for enough polls with poor numbers to make a meaningful dent, especially with that 32%
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Oct 27, 2015 17:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Debt limit is about to be raised and you can get in at around 91-92c. Whether that's a good deal is a matter of perspective, I suppose. I just got some for 93 right now. For something that has basically been announced to happen in a couple days
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Oct 28, 2015 05:00
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Logikv9 posted:I'm getting a little uneasy on my RUBIO.RNOM yes shares because of all the new developments about how he has basically quit the senate in all but name only. I'll see if this stuff sticks but I wouldn't be surprised if somebody uses it against him once his numbers goes up. The same things were brought up against Obama. That happens anytime a senator runs for president. He pretty much did quit the senate and he's not going to show up for a vote that passes 73-20, but he will still be there for a close vote when he is needed. That said, until thy link the contracts, EVERY yes share is overvalued. He has a good shot if Jeb! gets out of the way and the establishment rallies around him, but 43% seems really rich at the moment.
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Oct 28, 2015 21:31
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tinstaach posted:This is too basic, but the general idea is that if you buy shares in a multi-option market in such a way that you can't lose on all of them (buying No shares for multiple people in the RNOM market for example), they'll credit you so that the cost of those shares is the maximum amount of money you stand to lose instead of the full price. That is a good explanation. Would it be fair to say that there won't be anything forcing all the outcomes to add up to 100%, but rather by making it easier to buy NO, the prices of YES will tend to fall into an equilibrium closer to 1?
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Oct 28, 2015 23:24
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Wanamingo posted:For anybody looking for some quick and (relatively) safe returns, the price of Trump finishing the month at 25% is down to 83 cents each. He's sitting at 26.8% right now, and I'm pretty sure the drop is from people expecting him to do poorly in the debate tonight. I had been buying at 90 and I think I picked up the last 25 at 83. I agree with you. Not enough time for the debate to affect the polling. Even weirder, my Bush NO's are down to 93. The same people must think he's going to do good or something. This one is a VERY safe return. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 00:26 on Oct 29, 2015 |
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Oct 29, 2015 00:23
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Zeta Taskforce posted:There is a new Obama approval market out after a short absence. They are pure gambling, but I'm going to do an experiment to see if I can outsmart it. I'm still following this strategy, and the only modification I would have made is to put less money in early in the week when the markets are more stable and weight it towards the end when there are wild swings. The good news is I bought $4 of NO in every tranche and that meant I bought 27 NO @ 15 for 46+ and comparatively fewer of the others. Still wondering how it will turn out in the end.
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Oct 29, 2015 18:55
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The senate is voting on the debt limit increase in 8 minutes and there are still NO shares to be had
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Oct 30, 2015 05:53
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Tomato Burger posted:Does RCP ever drop a poll on a Saturday? If not, the Sanders 25 is cheap for a payout tomorrow. Same with Rubio. But don't bet the entire farm on either My money is tied up in the debt ceiling, which I'm not sure should still be open and my Obama polling experiment where I bought NO on every tranche. Which by the way was a moderate but not overwhelming success. I invested $139 and my winnings will be $149, which will be reduced to $144 with fees. I might play with it again, since it is basically no risk, and weekly returns of 3 to 5% would add up after awhile.
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Oct 31, 2015 00:29
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Stereotype posted:Also I'm sure they are getting flooded with weird job applications for the low level temp position that updates their polls. Sounds like a scandal like Draft Kings, except more nerdy and a lot more boring.
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Oct 31, 2015 17:58
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Gyges posted:Trump has a 32 poll as his oldest, which is also his highest poll. Meanwhile he has a 22 poll as his second newest, which is his lowest. If the rest of his polls are in the 20s then that should be a relatively significant drop. Jeb! not being the biggest failure (or at least the biggest loser, he is till the biggest failure) is a reasonable bet. It looks like Huckabee and Cristie dropped in the last few days from polls being dropped and Jeb! is flat. With it trading in the 70's, there is more upside potential. Also, what's the deal with the Debt Ceiling? That's settled right, or is there something that needs to happen still based on the way the rules were written?
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Nov 1, 2015 20:15
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Fiorina not being the debate loser looks like a safe bet in the high 70's. She's been polling flat. I think its a tossup between Cruz or Rubio winning, which would make Carson overinflated. Carson not being the winner looks good too.
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Nov 1, 2015 22:16
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Vox Nihili posted:That IBD poll has everyone spooked since it had some really weird numbers. All of the minor candidates fell into the 1-3 range, including Fiorina. My strategy is to go heavy into no, since they are inherently undervalued and spread out money around and not make any one big bet on anything. But they are pure gambling
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Nov 1, 2015 22:36
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Are you all holding onto the debt limit through contract close date or selling at 99? It seems weird that this is still open. Is there some technicality that is preventing this from closing?
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Nov 2, 2015 01:06
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Necc0 posted:Yeah we finally have a healthy AM-radio population as well. Check out the comments in the debt ceiling market if you want to know who's money you were taking. Unfortunately I feel like long-term those sorts of people are going to disappear on their own because it's one thing to ignore being wrong about something it's entirely another when being consistently wrong is also costing you money. Vox Nihili got into an argument with one of them because he thought that he owed the governement $828,816. The good news for PredictIt users is the pool of AM talk radio population is huge. The bad news for the country is that the pool of AM talk radio population is huge.
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Nov 2, 2015 19:01
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JohnnyPalace posted:I'm very proud of myself! I posted about it last week. I did that and ended making 5% after fees. The only caveat is the fees took an especially big bite. One of them you will lose everything (of course). But 4 you will make a profit on, but you will pay the 10% on 4 sets of winnings. I'm probably explaining it bad. Say there were 5 levels each priced at 20 and you bought an equal number of all. At the end, one of them will have lost you 80, but 4 of them will make 20 each, so you will have won 80. But you will need to pay 10% on your winnings. So really you will net 72, but you will be down 8 once you factor the amount you lost. It can work if the price of YES adds up to way over 100, but I can see linked trades making NO easier to buy ruining that strategy
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Nov 3, 2015 05:36
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Tomato Burger posted:This afternoon I showed PredictIt to my coworker and he was really interested in it. Unfortunately he's not a conservative rube, so you won't be able to bilk him out of money by taking the opposite side of the market. Fortunately, though, he does hail from Louisiana and gave me this hot tip: John Bel Edwards. It looks like Republican NO is a bit cheaper than Democrat YES. I assume that this is the same bet? Seems pretty safe since Edwards is polling double digits ahead Necc0 posted:Yeah we finally have a healthy AM-radio population as well. Check out the comments in the debt ceiling market if you want to know who's money you were taking. Unfortunately I feel like long-term those sorts of people are going to disappear on their own because it's one thing to ignore being wrong about something it's entirely another when being consistently wrong is also costing you money. Score one for the right wing talk radio crowd. I was caught off guard with the last poll of Carson coming in so high. But I look at this as a good thing that will sucker them in, confirm their world view only to lose more later, just as I had some early wins and my greed caused some steep losses. If they lose 100% of the time they won't keep playing. On this LA Governor race, I wonder how many talk radio people are just assume that a Republican deserves to win in all red states? Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 06:42 on Nov 4, 2015 |
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Nov 4, 2015 06:35
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I have money on the line for Rand to not be the next to drop out. Why would he? He knows he has zero chance of winning so it's all about carrying on the Paul tradition of running no chance quixotic campaigns so he can go to debates and talk about how wonderful the constitution is If I had to guess it would be either Huckabee or Cristie because both of them actually thought they would win and Cristie still remembers people begging him to run 4 years ago.
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Nov 6, 2015 05:31
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pathetic little tramp posted:The 22%+ market already fell apart, I had bought NOs around 25 and now I'm wondering if I should sell off at 65, which I'm sure is the ceiling for now, or stick to my guns and wait until the end of the month when it's up at 99. I just sold my Carson NO into this spike. I only wish I had more than 25 of them. I would, or sell half of them if you have a lot. I see that sometimes the markets overshoot short term so I'm going to see if I can pick up some YES in the low 30's for a quick bump.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:29
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If Carson does start bombing, then Trump YES for hitting the November number looks cheap.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:40
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Gyges posted:If Carson actually does crash his people probably split between Huck, Cruz, and Rubio. He's the un-Trump of the moment. If Carson crashes hard I think Cruz benefits the most, less so Huck because he is a has been. To disclose, I am heavily invested in Cruz hitting his number, about 20% of my portfolio is in there, my current heaviest bet. But there will be a lot of spoils to go around that everyone will benefit short term. Just for fun, I bought some Carly dropping out next at 2. I know she won't, but it's better than spending $5 on a lottery ticket and its fun to see that she was just a flash in the pan.
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Nov 6, 2015 19:18
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Aliquid posted:Time to buy in on Louisiana! I have 50 shares on Republican NO, but forgive me, I know next to nothing other than tomato's co-worker from LA said Edwards was a sure thing. Is this new information like a bombshell just went off, or is this something that has been kicking around forever?
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Nov 6, 2015 23:41
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JosefStalinator posted:I violated the sacred rule of do not play polls by buying some NO for him to be above the 22% threshold. His peak is clearly here, or at least, will have peaked by the end of the month and he should decline as Trump, Rubio, and others pick up the rest. Go ahead and play polls. There is right way and a wrong way. The wrong way is to make big bets near the close that could go either way depending on what poll hits or what old poll gets dropped. But at this point out, with this much time there is skill involved. It isn't pure chance. But even then don't go big. Last month I made a decent amount of money betting that Carly had peaked. I lost some thinking that Carson wouldn't win the CNBC debate. What I try to do is to spread it around wide, don't make any big bets, don't buy all at once, even if you really like something, and don't be afraid to sell at a loss in case you realize at some later point you were wrong. It's better to miss out on upside if it means you limit your exposure to downside. Carson at 22 will probably resolve as a NO. I did well playing with it today, but I think it's fairly priced right now. I'm out of it entirely as of now and won't get back in until one side becomes cheaper for a dumb reason, or until one side becomes mathematically probable.
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Nov 7, 2015 05:52
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Tomato Burger posted:I ended up converting my LA = Dem approach into a pure arbitrage play. There's only two candidates in this final round, but Dem No + Rep No only adds up to .94-.97, depending on the hour. Yes, please, I'll gladly buy dollars in two weeks for 95 cents today. I'd be careful about this particular arbitrage play. Based on the numbers I don't think it will work out for you. Keep in mind that they take a 10% cut on winnings. You don't really feel it so much when you do a normal bet, you either win or lose, but especially on arbitrage plays it really matters. If you make 2 opposite bets you are locking in a 100% loss and a 10% loss. On today's numbers, say you got the Dem NO and Republican NO for 25 and 70 and buy 100 shared of each and Edwards wins. Your first bet loses $25. Your other bet wins $30. But you only see $27 of that. You are up by $2. If it goes the other way, your first bet wins $75. You will see $67.5 of it. Your second bet loses $70. After fees, you are actually down $2.50. Lesson being arbitrage is fine, but unless you can cover all options for less than 90 cents, it's hardly worth it.
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Nov 8, 2015 03:33
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fronz posted:I'm surprised Carson 22% is only 50/50. How are you playing this? It looks like a complete coin flip to me. In the last 10 polls over the last month he has been below 22 exactly once. He has been a conservative icon for years and has way more staying power than any of the 2012 Romney alternatives. There has been some negative stories over that last month that are quite significant and I could see him being knocked down a few points. I don't see how the pyramid thing is any dumber than anything else he said. I was buying NO when it was in the 30's, but I have no idea how to play this when its 50/50 Wanamingo posted:I finally bought back in after going bust a few days ago, and I'm already down $2.70. What exactly did you do the first time? Not to pick, but we all learn from what strategies work and don't work. What are some of your big bets now?
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Nov 9, 2015 03:10
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fronz posted:Now that he's a frontrunner, and given that he says a lot of stupid poo poo, people are going to keep talking about the stupid poo poo he says constantly (it fills the airwaves...) until he's been Jebbed. Most of his support seems to be pretty soft. I wouldn't be surprised if he lost a few points in the next polls that come out, and would be surprised if he didn't lose more than that over a full month of this. Certainly I wouldn't put it at 100% odds, but I dunno, 70-80? The stream of stupid poo poo has been pretty constant, its gotten him to frontrunner status, and most of his supporters are heavy listeners of talk radio. Until right wing radio turns against him it could go either way
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Nov 9, 2015 03:40
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That was weird. I went from plus $8 to minus $35 and tried to figure out what happened. There was a flash Rubio crash to 5 cents. Then a minute later he recovered, back up to 80. I can't figure out what happened, unless someone decided to sell $850 and didn't care about price.
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Nov 9, 2015 18:02
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I somehow missed the fact that there was a Starbux controversy until I got the email. Weirdly enough I was showing the site to a friend and he explained it (sort of) to me. I promptly bought 10 at 34. Edit: What happened? The starbux market is closed? Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 03:07 on Nov 11, 2015 |
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Nov 11, 2015 03:03
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Linking has made YES way cheaper. If you add up all the yesses for the FNB debate for who gets the most talking time, it only adds up to 75
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Nov 11, 2015 04:34
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