PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

MisterJed: May 9, 2004

I'm ready to bet big on trump to win the nomination. He's at $0.28 and all the other republicans are collapsing.

Predictit shows the top two candidates on their graphics. For the republican nomination, it's bush and Rubio, but Rubio is a penny or two above trump. Once trump passes Rubio, the graphic will show trump, the floodgates will open and the trump price will skyrocket.

I also suggest we close the thread because I only want idiots participating in this site.

# ¿ Aug 30, 2015 01:34

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# ¿ Apr 30, 2024 17:50

MisterJed: May 9, 2004

Vox Nihili posted:

Nope, it's no where near one poll of 5 or above vs. one poll of 3 or below to knock Christie out of the Section 7 qualification. I don't know if you're including polls that CNN isn't using, looking at the RCP numbers, or what, but the actual numbers are no where near that. For example, the most useful poll for pushing down Christie, the PPP poll with him at 2% and Fiorina at 8%, is not included in the CNN average.

In your previous post, you said Christie and Paul are tied; this is not true. I think you are looking at the RCP averages rather than the CNN qualifying polls, which look much further back and exclude several recent polls.

This chart doesn't include the most recent poll, but the excluded poll has Christie at 2% and Carly at 4%, not nearly enough to move the numbers here:

He was never going to make it in under the August to Sept. polling average, which was added specifically to add Fiorina as an 11th candidate. There is no Section 7b, so I don't know what you're referring to there.

I think you'll find plenty of 10c No shares available if you want to make that bet. Barring any further CNN changes, it looks like a long shot.

It looks like the price has bumped up from when you first asked, but I think it's very likely Christie makes it (and I think you agree). I'm sitting on my 0.79 shares.

# ¿ Sep 5, 2015 05:17

MisterJed: May 9, 2004

EngineerSean posted:

edit: Cruz YES seems vastly overpriced though, I'm going to buy some Cruz NO right now.

I like Cruz as a temporary buy. He'll get the scraps from Trump vs Carson, plus he presents well in debates

# ¿ Oct 26, 2015 01:35

MisterJed: May 9, 2004

Gyges posted:

Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong?

Second republican debate, fiorina on the main stage. I think "no" was close-ish to a consensus in this thread, for good reason

# ¿ Nov 16, 2015 01:48

MisterJed: May 9, 2004

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/694694897459265536

Hmmmmm

# ¿ Feb 3, 2016 02:42

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# ¿ Apr 30, 2024 17:50

MisterJed: May 9, 2004

IM DAY DAY IRL posted:

I considered putting equal bets on Rubio and Kasich for 2nd seeing as they're both sub 40c but then saw Cruz at 16c- with him only being a few points behind both of them in the polls I feel like it could be a good opportunity for some of you gamblers to get a nice 5:1+ payoff. He's got enough of a chance at second that makes me not want to really hedge between the other two.

I bought a chunk of Cruz 2nd at 14c earlier today. It's a weird spot but I like it at the price

# ¿ Feb 7, 2016 21:18

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