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Wanamingo posted:Joe Biden better not loving run. Seriously. Don't gently caress me on this, Diamond Joe.
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Aug 24, 2015 23:28
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At this point I almost feel like I might as well buy up the nos to max because gently caress it. Come on Big O, talk some sense into your boy.
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Aug 25, 2015 04:57
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Jewel Repetition posted:Hasn't he also not done a single thing to indicate he is? Yeah, this is the main reason that it's still pretty unlikely that he actually runs. It is hard to tell where the clear desire of Biden to be President and the media's clear desire for Democratic conflict diverge though.
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Aug 27, 2015 12:12
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pathetic little tramp posted:Whenever I see a YouTube comment these days along the lines of "HILLARY IS GOING TO JAIL" I like to reply that they can make mad money on that bet. No worries on that front, they're pretty sure that she's totally going down this time. It's what they hear on the talk radio all day every day. The more people who only expose themselves to fragmented, ideological, news the better for your bottom line. But even putting that aside, most people are going to buy shares based on their ideology rather than a data driven and impartial reading of the probabilities. Also most people are really, really bad at math.
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Aug 28, 2015 22:05
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Unless you can lock in a long term at a super good rate they're not a very good bet. You'd do better using that money on short term markets. Unless you're picking up long term bets to flip when the market freaks. Oh if only I didn't have so much Biden at the high 40s instead of all that 20s from when the market lost it's poo poo.
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Aug 29, 2015 05:16
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Is the likelihood of Congress not even getting a BOOO IRAN DEAL bill through really high enough to have the Veto market around 50 while the Congressional Override market is in the 90s?
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Aug 30, 2015 00:03
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Yoshifan823 posted:It's all about the filibuster. I've put a bunch of share in "No" for the "Will Obama veto a disapproval", because there's a possibility that, if there are 41 Democrats in Senate who support the deal, they can filibuster the thing so it doesn't even cross Obama's desk. If there's less than 35, however, then you get a disapproval passed through congress. Between, it doesn't pass because of the veto. We'll have to see when they actually get back, but I'm still dubious that Reid can pull together a full 41 to filibuster it. Republicans only need to pick up 4 more to bring it to a vote and there's another 14 still left to declare. Yes on the veto definitely shouldn't be in the 70s or higher, but at least the mid 60s seems more likely. Of course the market might have changed since last I looked when yes was around 54.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:17
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Yeah the whole Iran situation does pretty much trace back to the oil companies getting the US/UK to gently caress around in Iran so that they could get their sweet, sweet, oil.
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Aug 30, 2015 06:02
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha, CNN just decided to go against the RNC and the FEC to capitulate to the pressure and let Fiorina in. There goes my money. Yeah, hopefully the no buys raise enough to keep it from being a complete lose before the debate. 3 cents a share is pretty close to worth less than the outside chance she still doesn't make the debate somehow. Probably Christie burying her beside Hoffa.
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Sep 1, 2015 23:40
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So if I'm holding some 33 on Biden not running, should I wait until his late night appearance this week temporarily crushes the hopes of the yes people? I don't think he's going to get in, but dude's still not in a good place and he really does want to run again.
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Sep 7, 2015 20:08
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I'm still pretty miffed that the "First GOP contender to drop out" was resolved to be Jindal when the dude is still putting out campaign ads on Youtube and tweeting like a candidate. They did list suspension as something that would resolve as a drop out. No idea what Jindal was thinking following the McCain playbook on that.
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Sep 10, 2015 18:43
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What is going on with Will "Right Direction" poll at 28.5%+ on September 11? Nothing has changed almost the entire time, no polls release today, and the average is still just above the line. However judging by the bets for the last few days there was no chance for Yes to win. Hell, yes just dropped like 30 cents today off no polls being released.
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Sep 10, 2015 22:44
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Wanamingo posted:Check the comments, Reuters released a new poll at 25% and it just hasn't been added to RCP yet. I quickly quit reading the comments after realizing they're mostly the place to try and bullshit people into buying your shares. With occasional people crying about how the numbers are all hosed up and clearly there's shenanigans going on.
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Sep 10, 2015 23:57
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Vox Nihili posted:Seems like a pretty easy no since an extension and future shutdown would still resolve to no. They will have to fail to even get an extension in place for yes to win. On the other hand, in order to get something through the House Republicans have to agree to it. Given their current passion for defending Planned Parenthood and their current attempt to hold their breath real hard to make the Iran Deal go away, things do not look good for a functioning government come October 1.
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Sep 11, 2015 03:00
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Aliquid posted:I think Boehner would rather break the Hastert Rule than give in to the crazies and shut everything down again. Just bought big into NO. Eventually, yes. However he's got to make a deal with Pelosi that can also pass through the Senate in time, and there's some big ol' assholes like Cruz, Cotton, and Lee just waiting to gum all the works up to stop it. Also the true believers in the House are a large enough group to really gently caress with Boehner's ability to get anything done in a timely fashion all on their own. Especially since there are less than 10 legislative days left before the shutdown commences. Edit: According to the House Calendar there are 7 days left in the month of September when the House will be in session. Gyges has issued a correction as of 03:24 on Sep 11, 2015 |
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Sep 11, 2015 03:14
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Trump is unlikely to gently caress it all up and Carson has not only poked the Trump but is also positioned for everyone else to come at him for a piece of his polling. Carson and Bush, maybe Fiorina are the only ones with both enough to lose and a high probability of getting savaged in the debate. Cruz on the other hand is the only other person with relatively decent polling and is positioned to gain by being the only one not attacking Trump or being attacked by Trump. Rubio is also positioned to gain off Bush's savaging, but he'd have to actually do something, which has proved a problem for him so far. Huck and Walker are both low enough that they could get a bounce, but it's less likely. Rand and Christie aren't going anywhere.
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Sep 12, 2015 04:16
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Aliquid posted:^^ You actually think someone other than Mr. T will attack Carson? No one else really needs to, but he's done some apostate things. Huckabee especially could be helped if the guy sucking up religious right voters were shown to be of the devil. It's going to depend on the questions asked.
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Sep 12, 2015 13:17
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A Time To Chill posted:Is there some major news I'm missing that's causing YES Shutdown to crash so precipitously? No real news, I think a couple think pieces came out saying Republicans would be stupid to do it. Also polling that shows a sizeable majority of voters don't want the government shut down over Planned Parenthood. Of course 0 clean continuing resolutions have even entered the que for a vote, time is running down, and House Republicans are known to be psychotic assholes in safe districts. Feel free to buy up cheap yes shares and flip them next week or so when the media starts flipping out about the immenant shutdown.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:49
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The thing with the shutdown is that it's definitely going to at least go to the wire. So even if they do avoid the shutdown, a couple days before yes should be skyrocketing. As long as you can get it fairly cheep there should be a nice return.
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Sep 14, 2015 21:05
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I keep scanning the comments threads on the markets and every time it's a waste of time. Either no one has said anything or people are just shilling as hard as possible for their particular bet. Which wouldn't be so bad if it weren't so blatantly a load of bullshit thrown to increase their margin.
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Sep 15, 2015 01:01
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Aliquid posted:I can't stomach the volatility, y'all really think the YES will bump up toward the deadline despite all signs pointing toward NO? Yes was in the low 30s last time I looked. I see almost no way it doesn't get back up to at least the high 50s at some point in the next two weeks. More likely it'll flirt with 70 like the nos were.
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Sep 15, 2015 14:55
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Predictit needs to get some major press so that the place is swamped with the average voter types come November next year. It's much harder to make money off the polling when a sizable portion of the population isn't insisting the polls are skewed.
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Sep 17, 2015 00:12
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Stereotype posted:Its sort of funny that they have a new "Who will drop out first" bet with Jindal, the winner of the last one, still in it. I kind of hope they keep having these and he keeps technically dropping out first every time. drat it, Jindal, this is the 4th suspension of your campaign!
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Sep 17, 2015 20:33
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I don't understand why NO shares dropped so hard today. Is it really all based on another "some guy said he thinks Biden is totes running" article? Basically I can't decide if I should double down on no, or cut my losses. It's hard to tell really. There's a weird mix of people not wanting to tie up their money, playing the trends, and having odd opinions that come together sometimes to just totally confuse me. For instance you can still buy Jeb! being under 10% for low 70s to mid 60s depending on the time of day. That's putting a decent amount of faith on his charismatic rise in the polls considering he's nearing Cruz numbers. Also there's like a week and a half to go and polls aren't exactly coming out fast and furious.
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Sep 18, 2015 01:54
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Stereotype posted:I love how much of an effect that had on the price. I'm still going off his interview on Colbert where he really didn't look interested in running. Yeah, he's been pretty open about still being emotionally wrecked and probably not in a place to run.
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Sep 18, 2015 05:23
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Vox Nihili posted:Carly is about to kill me again. First I lost out in a huge fashion when CNN decided to change the rules to put her into the debate. Now my "anyone but Carly" bet that seemed pretty safe at the start is worth half of what I got it for. Gonna hold until we see a poll though. Carson is still on the upswing. I got hosed on Carly this round because I thought she was polling much higher, so I bet against her winning. Otherwise I'd be sitting pretty when I bought up my yes votes for the candidates couldn't possibly go any lower but aren't Ron Paul/Scott Walker to win at less than 10cents a share. Oh well, I got a bunch of no on Bush winning at somewhere in the 30s/40s.
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Sep 18, 2015 20:45
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pathetic little tramp posted:And nothing has indicated yes, just the usual blather thAt leads up to any announcement, yes or no. Of course the media plays it as yes because that's more interesting, but all their evidence is the usual concluding things based on what you already assume is true stuff. I think it's 50 50 at this point and that's why I bought thirty no shares at 33 cents, just because I think no is about 17 cents cheaper than it should be. I don't know that I'd say it's 50/50, but it's definitely not a sold yes or no. Biden absolutely, 100% wants to run and be president. However every report is that the death of his son has been hard as poo poo on him. He's repeated several times to different audiences that he's not sure that he's got the emotional strength to run right now. Also the field is really not set up for Joe Biden to jump in and have a good chance, especially not this late in the game. So it's desire vs reason, and while we do know that Biden has a whole lot of desire, there is still not that much showing he's disregarding reason. Dangling the possibility out there keeps the door open longer for him to think about it, puts pressure on Hillary to get out and in the media more, and puts further pressure on other potential not-Cintons to stay out of the race. I'd say it's 65-35 no.
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Sep 20, 2015 20:29
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Glad that Yes shutdown is finally climbing. I was starting to get a little worried that it was never going up. At least I got a poo poo load of shares in the 20-38 range. I've got groups of shares set to sell over a wide range so as long as the market doesn't think a deal's coming out today I should finally be able to stop kicking my self for not guessing that CNN would cave and change their debate rules.
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Sep 21, 2015 19:20
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fronz posted:loving walker Looks like there's still a few cents you can squeeze out of buying some of the other guys' NOs if you jump on it quick. Still, the World is a better place for Scotty dropping out.
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Sep 21, 2015 21:21
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People who had money in No on Santorum, Pataki, and Jindal must be creaming their pants right now.
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Sep 21, 2015 21:29
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Does no one even own any shares on Rand Paul dropping out? He's the only candidate with sell offers below 96. Come on and cash out now so I can makes some dimes. RE: Shutdown chat The biggest problem of all is that there's only like 4 days left where Congress is even going to be in session before October. I mean, they can get something done but it's sure going to be down to the wire in the best circumstance. We're quickly approaching the point where if Ted Cruz decides to use his Senatorial Privileges to their dickest extent, he'll be able to gently caress it all up on his own.
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Sep 21, 2015 22:40
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A Time To Chill posted:So is the consensus here that it's safe to hold NOs for now? Or should I panic sell at a 10c/share loss? It's not actually Diamond Joe. There's no way in hell he could file silently a month ago and no one would notice. Especially with the press salivating at the thought of him and Hillary fighting. I'm just disappointed that the market hasn't gone way down so I could buy super ridiculously cheap Nos before the market realized they'd been had and the price rebounded.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:03
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Yeah, I hosed myself by buying yes just before the announcement of the CR pathway. I still think there's a good chance of a shutdown, but I think my chances of catching an upward rise during the next few days are history. As long as the CR doesn't pass by next week, prices should go up from here. Unless you've got yes shares in the high 40s or more there should still be enough of an upward flux to make some money. Even if you think the shutdown will be averted, the current valuation isn't reasonable come next week. Keeping in mind that reasonable isn't necessarily the default setting for the market. Also that I thought some level of panic would have set in by now. Which hasn't happened.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:38
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I think it'll pass the Senate, but I'm not so sure about what will happen in the House. I suppose if the first domino falls, the next one will too. There's not much time to operate though, so my hope is that if Cruz or Rand or whomever try some fuckery, it'll be enough to push things past midnight. Well first they're doing the no money for PP CR, so that's going to fail. Then they have to introduce and pass the "clean" CR, which is going to take longer. I don't think the text of either has been seen yet, and there's an off chance that the Democrats raise a little hell if the CR includes sequestration. Not much of one, but it does exist. Peak Reid trolling would be to defeat the poison pill CR buy just one vote so the House crazies think there's a chance of them ramming it through. Really though all the will they won't they drama is going to come from the House, which hasn't done anything at all yet. The Senate was always going to be the reasonable one and actually pass something. McConnell and friends are rumored to be crossing all the ts and dotting all the is so neither Cruz nor Rand can gently caress things up all on their own.
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Sep 23, 2015 21:29
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I usually stay out of the polling markets unless it's pretty obvious what's going to happen. Trump and Bush for the month seem pretty safe money and I've made a decent amount off them. Obama Gallup can usually be bet across all the slices so you make money on all or most of the section. Bernie and Hillary are too close to the betting line for me. In stupid bets on polling news, Congressional Approval For the Week is under 20 cents a share for no. Since it's been sitting at 15.2 since last week that may be a good place to make some money. I already doubled what I put in last time it was at 20. Edit: Selling No is around 10 cents. Is there a poll out that hasn't been entered into RCP or something? Gyges has issued a correction as of 00:59 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 00:55
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fronz posted:Oh my loving god. Definitely why polls suck for betting. Still, if The Donald only has to gain 1 point there's a decent chance of still coming out ahead. And of course I'm getting hosed for putting money on a poll market for more than 2 days. At least my Bush holdings cover the Trump if it all turns to ash.
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Sep 24, 2015 16:02
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Vox Nihili posted:Now is a great time to buy in! If I didn't have like 500 shares still I would. At least all but 50 of my Bush had already sold at about 30 cents profit before this morning's crash. Edit: Actually at 10 cents a share I changed my mind. That is a good deal with almost a week to go and Trump trumping around in the media. Gyges has issued a correction as of 17:03 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 17:00
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I just have to make sure I go back and cancel any left over buy offers on Trump and Congressional polling later. Don't want dangling 10 cent offers if it all tanks again. Edit: The comments bitching about how unfair RCP changes are, are the best. The entire bet is on what RCP will do, but it's soooo hosed up when RCP does something. Gyges has issued a correction as of 17:48 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 17:42
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pathetic little tramp posted:One thing that I just noticed. The value of your shares is not based on what you can actually sell them for, but based on what they were last traded at. That's a pretty important distinction, I thought I'd miraculously doubled the price of my cheapo longshots from this morning. I was wondering which figure they were using to calculate it since I notice my value fluctuates nearly every time I refresh.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:42
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So apparently there's money still to be squeezed out of Scott Walker quitting. People seem to be randomly clicking on the market and buying yes shares on the other candidates. Perhaps they think it's the new who will drop out, but now Pataki Nos are selling for almost 90 cents.
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Sep 25, 2015 01:23
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