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Gyges posted:I kind of hope they keep having these and he keeps technically dropping out first every time. They actually rewrote the rules for this contract to prevent this from happening again.  contract 1214 posted:Following the launch of this market, the first Republican presidential candidate to publicly announce the suspension or termination of his or her candidacy or of his or her active campaigning for president or for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, and to implement and maintain such suspension or termination for a period of at least one week without resumption of campaigning or announcing plans to resume such candidacy, shall be the individual identified in the question. Qualifying announcements may be made verbally or in writing by the candidate, the candidate’s campaign committee, or an authorized representative of such committee. Such announcement need not be accompanied by filing of a termination report or any other documents with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
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Sep 19, 2015 05:21
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Necc0 posted:No the Jindal-scandal was technically meeting the requirements because he actually did suspend his campaign. The only thing was no one even noticed because lol Jindal. This is a fake submission. It'd be like saying someone pretended to be Jindal and said they were suspending the campaign and PredictIt closed the market. Actually in the thread for that contract, a Predict staffer said that they were aware of the claim but couldn't find anything more authoritative than a third-hand report of the statement. The actual interview footage of him saying so wasn't identified until weeks later because lol Jindal. Aliquid posted:That's exactly what's happening. I sold all my,no shares but two at .45, then refreshed and 100 more .45 shares were available so I got out completely.  I was wondering why I kept being able to buy no shares for 40 and immediately flip them for 45 today
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Sep 22, 2015 04:58
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Gyges posted:The Yes seem to honestly be 110% convinced he's running. It's weird as hell because there is very little other than your reading of the tea leaves concretely supporting either side. Isn't this exactly what people were pining for a month or two ago, tons of irrational people to trade against?
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Oct 5, 2015 18:32
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Necc0 posted:I have one question though: Where is all this money coming from? Are they just paying it out themselves? Technically, I guess, because you've already given them your money. You know how when you buy a $.60 share, there's another buyer on the other end who's also out $.40? Then when it resolves in your favor, PredictIt is giving you your $.60 back plus the other guy's $.40? But during the length of that trade, the money was really held in escrow by PredictIt on your behalf. This adjustment process is just paying out some of that cash a bit early when you intentionally limit your own risk. Aliquid posted:So when looking at a question with a binary outcome, it won't matter whether I buy A YES or B NO? That's the ideal, though liquidity may limit that a bit. (PredictIt generally only launches single markets for binary questions, though.)
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Oct 6, 2015 04:36
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Vox Nihili posted:I lost some. Learn from my mistakes and avoid the stupid poll markets. Yeah, this. The best was last week, where the week's new polls dropped it below the cutoff value... but because the aggregator site didn't update their moving average for the day until after the market had closed, it resolved to $0.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:18
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Zeta Taskforce posted:How is that? You're right that a contract can be created when a YES and a NO buyer connect. The value will be $1.00. By definition the contract ALWAYS has to be $1.00. Once created there is no mechanism for a contract to be destroyed or used up. Huh? Yes, there is. Every contract needs a holder on each end. If I have a BIDENRUN No for sale at $.45, and a Yes holder agrees that $.55 is a good price to sell, then that trade executes, we each go down a share and up in credit, and those two shares are destroyed. Buying isn't the only possible transaction.
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Oct 13, 2015 14:02
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Jewel Repetition posted:Doesn't predictit itself "buy" your orders for a dollar when that happens? No, only when the market closes. He can say "no" and still potentially run after, so Nos won't get paid until 12/31/2015. (Or if he becomes mentally incapacitated or something I guess.) pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah, he'll announce no/yes and then there will be a huge panic with a flurry of trading on the boards for about an hour before it all closes. Read the rules again.
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Oct 16, 2015 03:25
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Abel Wingnut posted:PI changed how they display your performance. on mobile you only see gain/loss. I see that and I'm not on mobile  Fake edit: I see both current value of investments and gain/loss.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:01
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Gyges posted:
To be fair, this isn't a presidential contest yet, it's still two nomination contests. I wasn't on Intrade back in the day; was there as much frenzy around the 2012 or 2008 nomination contests?
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Oct 19, 2015 00:35
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nachos posted:This looks like the last chance to get some cheap sub-40 cent NOs 
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Oct 19, 2015 22:35
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Interesting what just happened to the Jim Webb Drops Out First market.
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Oct 19, 2015 22:59
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Combed Thunderclap posted:He just announced he wants to run as an independent, apparently. He hasn't, though. "Considering". I guess it would be kind of dumb to have a press conference tomorrow to announce nothing, though.
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Oct 20, 2015 03:40
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Vox Nihili posted:Paul Ryan officially running for speaker. That market only closes when he's officially sworn in, though.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:48
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Necc0 posted:I've said this a bunch and I'll say it again: if you believe linked contracts are coming to existing markets you should hold off on buying Yes on anyone. However this also means that No shares are undervalued so instead of buying yes on trump buy no on all his competitors. Meh. They don't even have a date listed for their next trial of linked polling markets, after the last one crashed and burned within hours. I would be surprised if they start linking any existing markets before 2016. Tomato Burger posted:My hunch is that the most "interesting" markets for academics are the long presidential race ones, which are all linked. Keeping those as non-linked while making new markets linked wouldn't help the academic nature of the most relevant markets, so they're trying to implement a solution to those markets without jacking everything up. Uh, no, there is not a single linked market on the site today.
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Oct 26, 2015 22:15
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Gyges posted:What's happening at the end of the year to cause the freak out? A whole lot of markets time out, so there's going to be a lot of traders with cash burning a hole in their pockets.
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Oct 28, 2015 02:30
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Aliquid posted:Everything'll add up to a dollar. Not necessarily; I assume there will still be some inefficiency due to transaction costs. But the currently exorbitant cost of holding multiple "no" contracts in a single market will become an order of magnitude cheaper, which should help clamp down on the currently inflated "yes" values across the board. Zeta Taskforce posted:That is a good explanation. Would it be fair to say that there won't be anything forcing all the outcomes to add up to 100%, but rather by making it easier to buy NO, the prices of YES will tend to fall into an equilibrium closer to 1? Yes, exactly.
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Oct 28, 2015 23:25
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Gyges posted:Yeah, all the linking does is make it so that instead of putting up $6 for 10 shares of .60, you get those shares without having to lock up that $6 because you've got $8 already being held to cover a slightly bigger bet. I'm still a bit confused about what exactly is going to happen. I bought one of each NO market just to test. After all the refunds as I bought them, I ended up being out only $0.05 for the total price of those five shares. So when the market closes end-of-day Friday, do I get $5 - $1 = $4, and thus realize an 8,000% profit... or...? Edit: Oh, I found it, you have to click "Your risk in this market" on "Your shares" to bring up the payout matrix. Apparently I'm now guaranteed to lose 3-5 cents no matter which way the markets resolve. Fuschia tude has issued a correction as of 03:51 on Nov 3, 2015 |
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Nov 3, 2015 03:32
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thethreeman posted:Before, you'd have had to pay $4.05 for those shares, and you'd get back a guaranteed amount of $4.00 for them at the conclusion of the market (because, no matter what, there would be four "correct" No shares, and one "incorrect" No share, since one of them HAS to win). Aha. Got it, thanks. So basically it's pointless to have equal numbers of NO shares of all markets in a linked set unless you are buying and selling throughout the lifetime of it.
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Nov 3, 2015 03:55
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railroad terror posted:Can someone better explain hedging bets on PredictIt? Like, if I were to invest either way on various candidates on the "Who's Dropping Out Next?" market, how would I calculate what to invest on each of the candidates likeliest to drop out in order to avoid a loss, but still potentially make a profit? Your best bet in those big-field linked markets is to buy "No", never "Yes". That way you're guaranteed to make money on all but one, if not all of your contracts, and until the Linked Market system gets expanded beyond the Obama Approval market, Yes tends to be overpriced across the board.
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Nov 5, 2015 23:23
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 This market is hilariously imbalanced, too. The top 
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Nov 12, 2015 20:17
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Necc0 posted:Couple of days ago I was thinking he was probably going to drop out but he has an absolutely insane amount of SuperPAC money behind him so there's no way they'll let him. That campaign will get cut to the bone before it's allowed to die Millions in SuperPACs didn't save Walker
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Nov 15, 2015 18:02
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Necc0 posted:lmfao I never noticed this It makes intuitive sense. If you didn't adjust each new target based on prior numbers, it would quickly become a 99/- blowout every time after the first or second market.
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Nov 19, 2015 05:23
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JosefStalinator posted:Can someone go over what this does to existing investments? If you have "No" contracts for multiple candidates you will be credited (almost) the value of all but one. (basically) (assuming equal $ investments in each) The more "No" contracts in a market you hold, the closer the credit % approaches 100%. So, No-holders get a lot more money to play with as their markets become linked.
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Nov 20, 2015 07:08
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Gyges posted:When a market is open someone puts in a buy offer on yes or no and a corresponding offer goes up on the other side. So if I put up an offer to buy Yes at 45, what gets put up by Predictit is a Yes Sell at 45 and a No Buy at 55. The offer then sits there until someone decides to either sell enough of their Yes shares at 45 to fill your request or someone decides to purchase enough No at 55 to equal your request of Yes at 45. Note that if you're not the closest to the Latest Price, you can easily sit there waiting weeks or months before this actually happens. That's what you see when you go to the "Prices" page; a big list of all of these hopeful offers waiting for the other side of the trade to come along.
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Nov 25, 2015 02:27
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Paper With Lines posted:I was wondering about that. Can someone explain why linking would drive people to drop their shares? More likely it's driving people to buy "no"s instead. Both actions have the exact same effect behind the scenes.
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Nov 26, 2015 04:18
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Aliquid posted:Romney Nominee YES is down to .01, insane. That's a penny stock worth buying imo I love this market, by the way. Every month like clockwork someone bids his stock up to double digits and I make bank* *pennies
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Dec 7, 2015 04:09
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thethreeman posted:I'm putting way too much into these debate markets. I can't see any logic in any individual candidate speaking the most, even trump, costing 40c+. Also ended up selling all my Bush Dropout NOs for 85c in (the extremely likely) case he has a terrible debate showing. I'll think about re-buying on a drop What I don't understand are the CNN debate viewership numbers. Their last CNN debate got 24 million, Trump just Trumped this month and people are expecting fewer viewers? 
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Dec 11, 2015 04:45
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thethreeman posted:What I find annoying is that if you decide to reduce the number you want to sell, you can't do it without canceling and re-listing, losing your priority. Can be a killer if it's a slow moving market Yeah it is. If you have only one price position you want to sell, you can just sell the excess at a different (higher) price, then cancel the latter set. Say you have 20 shares, and 10 of them are up for sale at $.40. You decide you want to sell only 5. You can put in an order to sell 15 at $.99, then cancel it; you now have only 5 sell orders outstanding at $.40, preserving your place in the queue. If you have multiple sell orders, well, as far as I can tell there's no rhyme or reason how individual orders are cancelled when you oversell like this. The selection process seems to be random.
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Dec 13, 2015 07:16
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Vox Nihili posted:There is speculation that Rand Paul is about to drop out, but the source people are quoting doesn't really seem to indicate as much at all. Well I just made a nice chunk of change reversing my bet that he would make it into the CNN debate next week, thanks to logging into PI and reading its comments first. I didn't even know they were announcing it today at Fuschia tude has issued a correction as of 19:01 on Dec 13, 2015 |
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Dec 13, 2015 18:58
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DEC17SHUTDOWN15 has floated up to 10/91. Is there any reason to think this week will be like 2013 rather than like last week?
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Dec 15, 2015 03:41
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Aliquid posted:let's bet on polls, or more specifically when RCP will add and drop polls This is almost 100% what you're betting on when you bet on polls at PredictIt, FYI
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Dec 29, 2015 05:59
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:have fun waiting out the CTBTO announcement Here's the twitter feed to follow, I guess: https://twitter.com/ctbto_alerts edit: Oh man choppy markets are fun, too bad I just tied up most of my cash a few minutes earlier!  Fuschia tude has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 05:06
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What about Rand missing the main stage? Well, no, the RCP criteria seem to be based on the phases of the moon and how hungover the data-entry intern is on a given day. But it's not looking good for him, regardless.
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Jan 9, 2016 22:08
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Aliquid posted:A Jeb suicide would resolve his dropout market as correct, yes? No, Predictit has clarified in the past that dying does not constitute "dropping out".
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Jan 13, 2016 22:20
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Platystemon posted:NO on PAUL.FBNDEBATE2 can be had for 92¢ if you’re into that. Payout isn’t great, but turnaround is good. I enjoy buying the opposite of "sure thing" markets like this. Sure, I'm probably out those shares, but who cares about dozens of pennies? Meanwhile I have a chance of making $bucks if something unexpected happens. I mean, this is politics, outrageously implausible things happen several times a year. Incidentally, $bucks is what I made flipping shares on this Paul will-he-or-won't-he market today 
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Jan 14, 2016 04:38
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Arkane posted:Did they ever link the GOP nomination market for shorting? All non-binary markets are linked as of December.
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Jan 20, 2016 02:24
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pathetic little tramp posted:I sold my 300 Cruz NO for a 10c gain (per share), literally in the 5 minutes before the CNN/ORC poll showing Cruz down 11.
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Jan 22, 2016 03:42
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Platystemon posted:Why wouldn’t you? If you’re just betting on one candidate, there’s no reason not to sell. True, if you only have shares in one candidate, that makes sense.
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Jan 22, 2016 04:08
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm not sure how the market will work. In the past, the media has been all about the popular vote on these things--delegate count comes later and no one really gives a poo poo at that point. The market closing date is like Feb 29. Does it normally take 4+ weeks to determine the delegate count? The fact that they're keeping it open that long suggests to me that they're not going by day 1 vote totals.
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Jan 26, 2016 06:03
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Aliquid posted:Same! It keeps happening! I also own 300 Trump Debate YES at .16. lol flipped that quickly, eh?
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Jan 28, 2016 21:53
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