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Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
Well, that was pretty fun. Had my first 'big' win on this site with the NO on a shutdown. I was on the bus checking my phone and saw that my balance was way higher than expected. Managed to dump off my shares in the low-mid 90's. Good timing, too, because last I saw it's dipped into the 80's again.

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Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare

pathetic little tramp posted:

Yeah, making money with any kind of swiftness is all luck really. The only strategy on a non-poll market is to find a NO that's way undervalued, grab onto it and put in your sell orders a little above it, hoping the eventual spike will happen sooner rather than later.

edit: drat, just made money on McMorris-Rodgers NO, what caused that spike, did she say something?

Paul Ryan and and Jeb Hensarling both endorsed Tom Price.

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
I think the irrationality makes some sort of sense since it's a highly personal decision being made by a guy whose son just died. I'm not touching that market – a little too crazy for me, heh. I did just put half my roll into NO on Bush getting the nomination, and I think I'm long-term on this one.

Prime Sinister has issued a correction as of 21:46 on Oct 5, 2015

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
Jim Webb NO seems like a good bet, but it bothers me that all he needs to do for it to resolve as YES is register as a candidate. I could easily see him registering, then being too lazy to actually campaign again.

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
That DPRK nuke market is extremely skewed toward the NO's. I'm glad I stuck it out. I got in at around 50 cents last night, nearly panicked, then bought in for more more for a total average of 31c. Sold at 69c just now.

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
I don't get what happened in the SOTU length market. I had shares in 60-65 minutes, and everything I've read pegged the speech at 58 minutes and change. But I logged in just now, and looks like all my shares resolved to yes.

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare

Aliquid posted:

Read the rules, it could be something weird. I bet it's some arcane thing like they start the clock when he walks through the door and begins glad-handing, instead of when he starts talking.

Apparently he said "thank you" while in the range of the microphone before he was even introduced. Rules are rules. :c00l:

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare

Aliquid posted:

haha with the gently caress is this

i was going to post my PredictIt shame bet but logged in and realized I put in another buy order while drunk last night. I have a problem and it's not with alcohol, it's with Jeb.



i'm keeping the buy order

In light of your openness, I too will share my PredictIt shame.

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
I just got in big on Trump Debate - Yes. :shrug:

Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare

pathetic little tramp posted:

I realllllly don't think you guys need to hang onto those YESes any longer:

https://twitter.com/risetoflyy/status/692422882253783040

edit: but the more I look at it, I can't find any better sources. It's all over twitter, but where's the primary here

I was set on holding my Yes's, but I saw this and immediately sold at a small profit.

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Prime Sinister
Mar 23, 2005

tony scare
I managed to get my entire (small) bankroll in on Tubman NO at 80c.

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