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No clue why we don't have a dedicated thread for predictIt so here it is. Talk about your positions and why other people's bets are dumb. Also be sure to link to this thread from now on when you call out idiots so that they can put their money where their mouth is. Anyways I'm really glad I didn't buy any 'Yes' shares for the Republican party rather than a shitload of 'No's across all the certain-to-be-losers. Basically bought 'No' on everyone except Bush, Walker, Rubio, & Trump. Also  at all the idiots who thought Putin was going to be thrown out of office. What the gently caressedit: Alright time for a serious OP since a lot of you guys don't know how this works. https://www.predictit.org What is PredictIt? : Are you someone who regularly gets frustrated when the general public gets worked into a frenzy over something you know to be impossible, or blown out of proportion? Do your friends, family, and coworkers generally hand-wave away your attempts at reasoning against the screaming heads on the television, only to forget you'd even said anything about it a week later? What if I told you there was this magical website where you could make money off this phenomenon? You'll still be that lone jerk who ruins conversations at happy hour but at least you'll have the beer money covered. PredictIt is a "predictive market" that operates sort of like a stock market, but is different in a few key ways. As a trader you can buy & sell shares of a certain real-world event occurring at some point in the future. These shares can be bought & sold for any amount between $.01 and $.99. If the event occurs, the 'Yes' shares settle at $1.00 while the 'No' shares become worthless while if the event doesn't occur, becomes impossible, or simply passes its expiration, then the 'No' shares settle at $1.00. Easy peasy. So I can trade these, too? Yes! If you've bought shares you don't have to wait for the deadline! You can turn around and offer your shares right back onto the market at a higher price. Know that a certain event is a sure bet, but will have huge swings in public opinion in the meantime? Buy low, wait for a scandal to break, then sell high! Once the media frenzy passes over the price will settle again and you can buy right back in at the low price! For a good example of this: check out the Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon market over the past 90 days. This sounds shady... is it legal? Yep. The parent company has a no-action letter from the CFTC. So unlike InTrade they went to the CFTC before launching the site to make sure everything they did was kosher. The biggest restraint imposed on them is the $850 maximum buy-in to any one market. So basically if you get drunk and dumb the most you can lose on any one bet is $850. Please don't drink and trade. So what's the catch? PredictIt only charges you 10% of your winnings and then a 5% withdrawal fee. What this means is that if your shares settle, you only pay a cut of what you made. So for example if you bought a share at $.20 and had it settle at $1.00, you only pay the 10% off the $.80 you made in profit, in this case being $.08. The other time they charge is a straight 5% withdrawal fee. Because of that if you're only planning on betting once then cashing out, you shouldn't purchase any shares around .94 or higher as the withdrawal fee will sap all your earnings anyways. However if you plan on re-investing your winnings you can run with much tighter margins as there's no charge for buying shares. Helpful Hints :
FAQ: Jewel Repetition posted:[...] if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it? Say you watch the poll reports and already know the results before the market closes for it, so it's a guaranteed win. The market is at 99-1 and you buy a single share of 'Yes' at $.99. An hour later the market closes and your share settles at $1.00, netting you a profit of $.01. The profit tax is taken out immediately, in this case being .0001*. So your ultimate balance is $0.999. At this point two things can happen: you can either cash out, triggering the second 5% withdrawal fee, costing you $.0499 and putting your final withdrawal at $0.9491. This would be a loss for you. Second option is to continue buying into certain 99-1 markets, each one only charging the 10% profit. Eventually you will break even and come out ahead of the 5% withdrawal fee and make a profit. This will take a while though, but it's also safe. Fortune favors the bold! *I don't actually know how they take the profit fees out of single cents because their accounting only seems to go three digits. Do Not Resuscitate posted:When a new market opens, how many total shares are available to begin with? Or am I misunderstanding how it's set up? So for example with the Hillary being prosecuted market: Initially someone could have looked at the empty market and said 'I think there's a 60% chance she'll be prosecuted' and offers to purchase 'yes' for $.60. That will also create a share of 'no' at $.40. If someone also thinks that 'no' offer at $.40 is worthwhile and purchases it, both traders get their respective share. Eventually enough people do this and the market will settle. Also at this point traders who already own shares can also offer theirs back up for sale at whatever price they wish. If someone already has a 'buy' order at that price, it goes through. If not, it goes up on the market and waits for someone to purchase it. Eventually it will become entirely sustained by already existing shares being traded and barring yooge swings or upsets not many more will be created. This is why the markets are so volatile when they're first created: there's so little volume that even small purchases can cause gigantic swings. JosefStalinator posted:Can we just add a big bolded DONT PLAY THE POLL MARKETS to the OP?  DON'T PLAY THE POLL MARKETS DJ BK posted:Sorry if the answer is obvious, will one of you guys explain the "linking of markets" idea to me? tinstaach posted:This is too basic, but the general idea is that if you buy shares in a multi-option market in such a way that you can't lose on all of them (buying No shares for multiple people in the RNOM market for example), they'll credit you so that the cost of those shares is the maximum amount of money you stand to lose instead of the full price. zeal posted:this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started? 
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Aug 21, 2015 15:14
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The R-370 sweep is another spot to make ez$$$
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Aug 21, 2015 15:22
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BougieBitch posted:For bets that far out though, what you are actually betting on is the site being functional long enough for you to cash out. I met with the CEO and some of their engineers a few weeks ago. The site is actually a subsidiary of Aristotle so they aren't going anywhere anytime soon. That plus the no-action letter makes me think they're gonna be around for a long time. Also fun fact: The Republican debate alone pulled over 100k trades 
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Aug 21, 2015 15:53
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Abel Wingnut posted:oh, is r-370 the bet about the Rs taking the WH, senate, and house? yea, a no there seems pretty drat safe. No it's that they'll sweep the presidential election with 370 or more electoral votes https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1322#data1
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Aug 21, 2015 16:01
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This site is great for making really safe bets. 7% return on Warren not running for president? Sure
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Aug 21, 2015 16:03
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I've got some Nos on the Bern even though I'll be voting for him and I'm really glad I held off on buying anything related to Trump, yes OR no. I still have no clue how that fucker's gonna shake out
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Aug 21, 2015 16:08
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That's why I want this site to catch on with the AM-radio crowd. Free money.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:14
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BougieBitch posted:https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1532#sthash.DwDYK14M.dpbs Are you buying No on Bernie & Hillary? Dunno who else you would consider a super-safe bet. I bought in on the Republican side on this one though- Huckabee & Santorum will milk their primary for every cent it's worth. No way they'll be dropping first.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:19
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platzapS posted:If you don't think Biden will run you can double your money. I'm bummed that I bought against him running before the rumors flared up
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Aug 21, 2015 19:29
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tinstaach posted:If I'm reading their rules right, don't they take a 1% cut on all profits, plus 5% on withdrawals? Yes. Another fun fact: That same meeting where I met the CEO & crew I also met some of their most prominent traders. The guy who made the most money, something to the tune of several tens of thousands of dollars, simply maxed out polling markets between the time the poll was announced and the market closed. You can make pretty good money even on $.99 markets if you know what you're doing.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:33
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fronz posted:I don't really understand why you'd make longterm bets with small margins of error. theres a 5% withdrawal fee and you won't see the money for so long you've essentially lost money. bet on sure things that close soon, like "donald trump will be >20 in the polls on aug 31" was selling for 50/50 for a while Even if the market doesn't close for years you can still just sell your shares once the market catches up to reality. So for example 5 months ago you could have bought against Rand Paul and be selling his shares now at a pretty decent profit.
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Aug 21, 2015 19:36
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Technically he has until early November to declare as that's when the first states start closing registrations. So there's still a good deal of time for him to jump in.
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Aug 21, 2015 20:43
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Aliquid posted:thoughts? most everything here is in the short-to-medium term but i'm kinda happy with my portfolio where it's at through september 1 at least. i'm prepared to cash out a few of them just for more day-trading options since things are too crazy not to Are you riding the Biden rumors or do you think he's actually gonna run? If you're riding the rumors I wouldn't get any closer to the registration deadlines than maybe late September. Also I dunno when you bought yes on R-Money but if it was before the rumors sprang up just a few days ago then good job. If nothing else comes out of that by the end of the week or maybe next week I'd sell though.
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Aug 22, 2015 18:35
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He's not going to run. Today's rumor was he was talking to Elizabeth Warren. 1 - It's sort of the Vice President's job to talk to Senators 2 - She's already said a bajillion times she has no interest in running. And Obama giving him his 'blessing' is just trollbama doing his thing. He's not running. He's not running. If I keep saying it he won't run.
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Aug 25, 2015 02:20
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Didn't even realize that this market closed: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1484#sthash.YCLDwguZ.dpbs Thanks, Jindal. Just made me some money 
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Aug 27, 2015 18:33
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Also this just opened today, should be fun: https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1551#data1 quote:One or more federal criminal complaints shall be filed against Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2015, as confirmed by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). Not really sure how I feel about this one. It's not whether or not something will actually happen, just formal charges. The Repubs have been threatening all sorts of lawsuits over the past few years but besides endless committees and hand-wringing they've never actually followed through Necc0 has issued a correction as of 19:11 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 18:38
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Vox Nihili posted:This requires a criminal charge, though, not just any lawsuit. Ah good call. Yeah this is easy money, then. Should keep an eye on this for good buys whenever the Republicans start rabble-rousing
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Aug 27, 2015 19:10
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So someone correct me if my math is wrong here but I'm thinking of tossing a bunch of arbitrage money at the multi-choice markets. For example take the republican primary market:
An 8% almost-guaranteed return over just under a year is a pretty good deal, imo edit: Nevermind the 5% withdrawal is on the entire thing, not just your profit. Oh well edit 2: Still get a guaranteed 3% return. That's not *too* bad, I guess. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:19 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 22:13
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Jewel Repetition posted:If you buy only correct choice shares are you guaranteed to make some amount of money? If God intervenes in the election and Bobby Jindal or somebody manages to win I just make an extra buck in gross profit per batch so yeah it'd be a good thing. Very very unlikely though so my math assumes at least one of them fail.
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Aug 27, 2015 22:21
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Jewel Repetition posted:I don't mean you specifically, I mean, if someone bets right, do they always make at least some money for it? It depends. Here's a basic example: Say you watch the poll reports and already know the results before the market closes for it, so it's a guaranteed win. The market is at 99-1 and you buy a single share of 'Yes' at $.99. An hour later the market closes and your share settles at $1.00, netting you a profit of $.01. The profit tax is taken out immediately, in this case being .0001*. So your ultimate balance is $0.999. At this point two things can happen: you can either cash out, triggering the second 5% withdrawal fee, costing you $.0499, putting your final withdrawal at $0.9491. This would be a loss for you. Second option is to continue buying into certain 99-1 markets, each one only charging the 10% profit. Eventually you will break even and come out ahead of the 5% withdrawal fee and make a profit. This will take a while though, but it's also completely safe. Fortune favors the bold! *I don't actually know how they take the profit fees out of single cents because their accounting only seems to go three digits. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:33 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 22:30
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pathetic little tramp posted:The way to make money appears to be to buy in immediately when they introduce something that has an obvious answer like "Will Carly Fiorina be in the top-tier CNN debate?" The answer is obviously no, but if you get in early, it only costs 50 cents to buy No, even though No will quickly rise to 95 cents. They're all located in D.C. and I get the notification emails for new markets around noon EST typically.
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Aug 28, 2015 01:10
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We need to instigate a campaign to spread the good word to places like freep so we can make more money. Primary markets can only remain stupid for another few months before they'll be forced to start converging.
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Aug 28, 2015 19:50
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:When a new market opens, how many total shares are available to begin with? Or am I misunderstanding how it's set up? None. Shares initially have to be created by the traders. When a new market opens people can create offers on yes or no. Every offer automatically creates a counter-offer that someone else can purchase. So for example with the Hillary being prosecuted market: Initially someone could have looked at the empty market and said 'I think there's a 60% chance she'll be prosecuted' and offers to purchase 'yes' for $.60. That will also create a share of 'no' at $.40. If someone also thinks that 'no' offer at $.40 is worthwhile and purchases it, both traders get their respective share. Eventually enough people do this and the market will settle. Also at this point traders who already own shares can also offer theirs back up for sale at whatever price they wish. If someone already has a 'buy' order at that price, it goes through. If not, it goes up on the market and waits for someone to purchase it. Eventually it will become entirely sustained by already existing shares being traded and barring yooge swings or upsets not many more will be created. This is why the markets are so volatile when they're first created: there's so little volume that even small purchases can cause gigantic swings. tinstaach posted:I wonder if there's any money to be made getting in at the very end of the polling cycle. The Obama approval poll ends in 5 hours, and the RCP average is 44.5. I just bought a handful of No shares on 45%+ for 93 cents, and if no new polls come out after 7 pm, I just got a ~6.5% return in less than one day. There is. PredictIt hosted a party in DC a while ago and I got to meet a bunch of their 'high rollers' and it was interesting to see all the different strategies and approaches people have. The guy who's made by far the most money simply waited until the polls were already announced but the market still open and would either max out the cap ($850) or buy up all the remaining shares on the market. When I talked to him he'd made over $10k and that was a while ago when the volume wasn't near what it is now. zeal posted:this seems like a great way to make money off being a news junkie, how do you go about getting started? It's literally a D&D poster's dream. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 05:25 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 05:21
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Alright I've updated the OP. Don't forget to link other posters / friends / loved ones / drunk strangers at the bar to this thread when you want someone to put their money where their mouth is.
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Aug 29, 2015 06:05
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Abel Wingnut posted:
If he'd only run the scam once, yes. The 5% withdrawal fee is only taken when you actually withdraw, though. The 10% is taken only off of your profit. So if you buy $850 worth of $.99 shares you end up with 858 shares. At $.01 profit each you end up with $858.50 gross. 10% off profit is taken immediately, but is only $.85, leaving you with $857.65. Now at this point if you withdraw, yes you're going to lose a lot of money, $42.88 to be exact. So 5% of $850 is $42.50 so your break-even point is running this scam more than 8 times. After that you're essentially printing money. edit: I should add that the guy who made crazy money off this was doing it back when no one else had realized they could do this yet, so sometimes he was buying up sure-bet shares for as low as $.30. These would be the times that he'd just mop up an entire market buying all the shares $.30 up to $.99 Necc0 has issued a correction as of 20:20 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 20:18
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zeal posted:and naturally illegal in my trash state 
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Aug 30, 2015 01:00
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MisterJed posted:I'm ready to bet big on trump to win the nomination. He's at $0.28 and all the other republicans are collapsing. I wasn't aware RSF was open to the public. Mods?
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Aug 30, 2015 01:42
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Also keep in mind that while Trump's lead has been impressive, we're still a long long way from the primary.
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Aug 30, 2015 01:43
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I can't help but feel that the oil lobbyists, if they haven't already, will put this issue to rest behind the scenes and the various senators are just getting their harrumphing in while they can.
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Aug 30, 2015 03:43
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Yoshifan823 posted:Would they be pro- or anti-Iran deal? I assume pro, because that means more oil, but they're pure evil, and I can't pretend to know how that works. http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/240916-us-oil-execs-to-travel-to-iran
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Aug 30, 2015 05:33
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New polling markets are out: restart steam
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Sep 1, 2015 15:33
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I had a feeling in my gut that they were going to tweak the rules glad I didn't put any on those markets.
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Sep 2, 2015 02:05
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah that's my biggest money maker right now. I could sell and get about, what, 90 bucks right now? But I'm thinking I should hold out for the solid 100. My question is, when would they declare "Okay this is obviously a no." When the resolution denying the deal passes? It might make more sense to get the 90 and screw with it if that takes 3 weeks or more. I doubt they'll close this one early because the rules are based on legislation actually passing. So your only two exits are the legislation passes or the time expires. Even if they hold a vote and it gets shot down there's still the chance that they could re-introduce it and have it pass for some reason.
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Sep 2, 2015 17:44
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Really enjoying Christopher Brown here not understanding how this poo poo works STOP MANIPULATING THE MARKET STOP IT !!! Necc0 has issued a correction as of 16:23 on Sep 4, 2015 |
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Sep 4, 2015 16:21
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Vox Nihili posted:Thanks for the tip, do you know where the rumor came from? Would also like to know this. I got my No shares for pretty cheap and can still dump them at a profit. I still don't think he's going to run but if those rumors are credible I don't think it's worth the risk.
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Sep 8, 2015 00:05
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Also what's your guys' thoughts on GITMO17? Obama is still saying he's going to shut it down but I really doubt he'll be able to get congress to cooperate.
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Sep 8, 2015 00:08
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, he isn't going to announce on Colbert: http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/2015/09/02/a-biden-announcement-on-colbert-no-way/ Still got cold feet and liquidated 1/3 of my 'No' shares at a meager profit despite this. I'll ride out the rest of 'em to see where this goes.
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Sep 8, 2015 16:44
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Welp. Biden didn't announce anything. Glad I held on to the majority of my shares.
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Sep 9, 2015 12:55
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New market: Will the federal government shut down on October 1?
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Sep 10, 2015 18:12
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I'm still pretty miffed that the "First GOP contender to drop out" was resolved to be Jindal when the dude is still putting out campaign ads on Youtube and tweeting like a candidate. They've come out and said they understood it was lovely but the rules are rules. They can't just ignore them.
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Sep 10, 2015 19:53
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