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Yeah this one's a gamble. I'm leaning towards them not shutting it down even though the Iran deal & Planned Parenthood has them in a frenzy but they've been pretty unpredictable lately. I feel like Boehner might wiggle out of this by adding some wordy token nods to the base that when boiled down result in nothing happening. So for example make the President pinky-swear that they'll disclose any "side deals" (there aren't any) plus launching an investigation into Planned Parenthood for wrongdoing (there isn't any)Golden Bee posted:Was someone threatening this? If Congress can't agree on a budget by the end of the month it shuts down by default. Since the Republicans are in control of both chambers they'll likely be going for major concessions from the Dems but both of the current hot-topics are things the Dems absolutely won't budge on. Throw in the opportunity for Rand or Cruz to grandstand like before and who knows what will happen. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 22:45 on Sep 10, 2015 |
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Sep 10, 2015 22:38
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http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/09/10/for-biden-calendar-makes-his-2016-decision-tough-to-delay He's not running
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Sep 11, 2015 00:46
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User Error posted:I got money on Carson losing the debate the hardest. Yeah keep in mind that this is based on just raw polling percentages not as a ratio of each individual candidate's starting point. Trump obviously has the furthest to fall but Carson is the only other candidate with a ledge bigger than the standard deviation. IMO No on every other candidate besides those two and MAYBE Bush and Walker is a safe bet.
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Sep 12, 2015 03:25
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After including my card's cashback reward today's Republican Primary market has a 6.5% arbitrage opportunity 
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Sep 14, 2015 15:11
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pathetic little tramp posted:Maybe they let people put in bids for the first 30 minutes or so before starting to fulfill trades? Nope. They execute immediately as soon as the market opens. Everyone needs to remember that this site is largely still only popular with D&D types. People like to talk big but once real money is on the line everyone suddenly sobers up a bit. Plus those that are loopy tend to lose money quickly and get burnt out.
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Sep 16, 2015 23:34
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Gyges posted:Predictit needs to get some major press so that the place is swamped with the average voter types come November next year. It's much harder to make money off the polling when a sizable portion of the population isn't insisting the polls are skewed. I may or may not be part of 'All Things Considered's headline tomorrow so stay tuned 
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Sep 17, 2015 05:47
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We're coming up on All Things Considered right now if anyone is interested in hearing NPR's take. I was interviewed by their reporter last night during the debate
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Sep 17, 2015 22:03
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Stereotype posted:I wish instead of NPR doing the story it was Fox News. Stream is here: http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.wamu.org%2Fstreams%2Flive%2F1%2Flive.pls&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNHUmG0nkIum0Q-cV3MFR3CD0Iq65w Our story is next. Hopefully we'll hear my interview 
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Sep 17, 2015 22:10
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha this stupid fucker didn't bet on Trump having the most speaking time. That was me  I didn't know about the 'if another candidate says your name you get +30 secs' rule until it was too late. Then I noticed them going for under ten cents and said ehh gently caress it what's another couple bucks. Go figure the first time I lose a bet since starting on this site an NPR reporter has a mic in my drunk face
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Sep 18, 2015 00:22
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We actually talked a bunch and I walked him through how I was making guaranteed money by arbitrating the Republican primary market so I'm pretty disappointed he decided to use that
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Sep 18, 2015 00:24
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Stereotype posted:also Necc0 you sound like a goon hahaha The party started at 5:00 so I was pretty thoroughly drunk at that point. I was honestly worried all day that I was gonna sound worse than that. pathetic little tramp posted:Hahaha what the hell I thought you were the second guy they interviewed. You know I love you anyway, sweet baby Jesus. I will admit, I was worried that they were being pretty fair and letting everyone get some equal time, but I knew in the end that you can't stump the trump. Those first 15 minutes must have been hell for you. Be glad the market closed at 9 at least because those NO shares would have gotten super expensive shortly after that when it seemed like they were never going back to Trump. As it was, you were buying a bunch of 10 cent shares of a not-ridiculosuly-long-shot of a bet. And he ended up only about 3 minutes ahead of Jeb. Yeah exactly. I bought my second batch right as they closed the market. I actually thought the sale didn't go through because it took me to the 'this contract is closed' page and I was kind of half relieved that my dumb bet didn't actually go through. But yeah at that point I'd realized Trump really wasn't speaking that much and most of the focus was on Carson. So I said gently caress it, why not? Also I didn't know he was only 3 minutes ahead. For as long as that debate went I'm gonna spin it around and say that actually no that was a really good bet that I took. Didn't pay out obviously but with those odds it was worth it. edit: And yeah when those first 15 minutes was a round-robin of every candidate split-screened with Trump I threw up my hands and went in for another beer. If they hadn't have done that I probably would have won 
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Sep 18, 2015 01:17
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Golden Bee posted:What's undervalued right now? I bought up a chunk of "Jeb over 10% by end of month" because it was 14 cents a piece. If he shows any signs of life there's room to grow. I sincerely doubt he's going to be making any gains in the polls until Trump stops sucking all the oxygen out of the room. Anyways to answer your question the running theory itt is that the Biden running market is your best bet at the moment. We're all fairly sure he isn't going to run and the market is still roughly at a 50/50 split.
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Sep 18, 2015 18:31
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Stereotype posted:I'm in on Yes Shutdown too, but I'm waiting until next week when it's all over the news that they haven't passed a continuing resolution yet, because they are going to string this out till the last minute (why wouldn't they?) I'm not convinced the amount 'Yes' will go up will be more than just buying 'No' now and riding it out
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Sep 19, 2015 03:53
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New market! WillNecc0 posted:'Yes' go up more than just buying 'No' now and riding it out
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Sep 19, 2015 03:54
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Vox Nihili posted:I've carried Yes from ~30c to ~40c four times now, so there's definitely money to be made even if there isn't a massive spike. The problem is what happens when you end up holding the bag when that bet doesn't work out. So you've made 10c each of the four times you've done it so even if you ended up screwed with another 30c you couldn't sell you'd still be ahead but that seems too risky to me. Good on ya though.
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Sep 19, 2015 06:00
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On the one hand I thought the PI guys would be a bit more immune to rumors than this but on the other hand more easy money for me. Cool
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Sep 20, 2015 00:27
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Wanamingo posted:Hahaha, that's a good one. The Republican primary market has remained really stable despite different candidates moving around in the polls but I guess most of the volatility in the Biden market is being driven by it's relatively short deadline. So let's try to assume Biden WILL run: What's the latest he could declare that would still make sense? First debate is mid-October and the first primary registrations close early November. I don't think it'd make sense to declare right before a debate without giving yourself at least a few news cycles to get your name out there in the public consciousness. I would think declaring either this coming week or next week AT THE ABSOLUTE latest would still make sense. Not saying he couldn't declare even later but if he did I wouldn't believe he was running a sincere campaign. Assuming he does run. Which he won't. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 00:40 on Sep 20, 2015 |
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Sep 20, 2015 00:37
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Wanamingo posted:The republican primary market is giving Trump and Kasich equal odds now, and Jeb is still considered the most likely to win. quote:I just noticed that there's a section for markets that are having the the largest swings in prices, how long has that been there?
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Sep 20, 2015 01:38
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Vox Nihili posted:The Yes inflation in that market is somehow more ridiculous than ever. People really hate pressing the No button, it seems. edit: Right before the debate it was at an insane 7%. I should have dumped a lot more money in then than I did.
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Sep 20, 2015 01:43
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:You have to be willfully ignoring some pretty blatant loving evidence to go with No at this point. Care to share?
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Sep 20, 2015 16:17
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:lol okay man he's got bundlers coming on board, a support infrastructure has been forming for months, a super pac, an advisor overheard talking strategy and timing of the announcement, the WH is giving the world the ol' wink-wink we don't have an endorsement BUT, Biden is traveling to key states testing out stump speeches, his wife came out and clarified that she's 100% behind a run, and he went on national tv to talk about a run, but no way is he running. I feel like if he were going to run he would have announced when he went on Colbert. Romney was doing the same thing as well and decided to duck out. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks!
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Sep 20, 2015 21:03
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This market is an absolute roller-coaster 
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Sep 21, 2015 16:49
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Got a nice ride out of my Biden YES so I flipped it into Shutdown YES at 52 cents. This thing is going down the wire, so I figure the longer I hold on, the better. I plan on cashing out on that final afternoon at whatever I can get for my shares. Just be careful because there are a lot of other traders doing this same strategy.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:21
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Yeah I was tempted at buying 'No' but there's way too many wildcards involved here for me to be sure either way.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:37
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Aliquid posted:thanks for the heads up, i'm starting to dump at .45 Now you just need to get 5% above your original deposit
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Sep 21, 2015 19:05
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That entire market is going to remain really sticky until at least after the new year.
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Sep 21, 2015 20:42
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fronz posted:loving walker I think everyone here agrees that no one could have seen this one coming 
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Sep 21, 2015 21:38
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I had 70 shares on him not winning the primary 
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Sep 21, 2015 21:40
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A Time To Chill posted:His campaign was based on screwing over the largest number of people possible. Turns out, that only amounted to trolling a few people on PI. Stealing this shamelessly
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Sep 21, 2015 21:52
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Stereotype posted:People in the comments section on PredictIt have decided that Joe Biden is already running because of these two things at the FEC: It was filed almost a month ago and there's no finances associated with it  Or is that the joke
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Sep 22, 2015 03:38
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Apparently it's a different Joseph R. Biden Jr.? What the gently caress is going on
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Sep 22, 2015 04:43
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Seriously it was filed over a month ago I don't think there's anything to it
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Sep 22, 2015 04:44
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Yeah it's a fake: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/deez-nuts-sparks-2016-fake-candidate-epidemic.html Someone's trying to panic the market, probably. There's an army of people who's entire careers are watching these things like hawks there's no way it would have slipped under the radar for a whole month.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:45
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No the Jindal-scandal was technically meeting the requirements because he actually did suspend his campaign. The only thing was no one even noticed because lol Jindal. This is a fake submission. It'd be like saying someone pretended to be Jindal and said they were suspending the campaign and PredictIt closed the market.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:49
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A Time To Chill posted:So is the consensus here that it's safe to hold NOs for now? Or should I panic sell at a 10c/share loss? They're not going to close the market because someone filed fake papers a month ago Like I said before if he'd actually filed those papers it would have been a media shitstorm in minutes.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:03
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In other news someone is buying into R-Money and there's rumors that Trump has pissed him off enough that he'll enter. I don't think he will but if he does it better come with John Cena-Horns as he descends onto a debate stage
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Sep 22, 2015 05:05
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A Time To Chill posted:I don't at all dispute that the filing is super fake. But aren't the people running the site ridiculously spergy rules lawyers? Yes and that's my point. Jindal actually DID suspend his campaign. That was enough to trigger the rules. Biden HAS NOT FILED PAPERS
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Sep 22, 2015 05:06
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A Time To Chill posted:That's fair and I'm inclined to side with your interpretation. But devil's advocate: A Joe Biden entered, if not THE Joe Biden. The rules don't actually specify a particular Joe Biden (though obviously you would have to be on another level of Willing to believe having his picture right there should be enough. Not to mention if they actually did close the market over some random Joe Biden entering the market it'd destroy their entire site and they'd more likely than not have a huge lawsuit on their hands. Who would ever bet on any market again if any random person could start throwing around fake papers to game it?
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Sep 22, 2015 05:15
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to not understand the spirit of the question).
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Of course he is.
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Sep 22, 2015 15:09
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quote:This market is tied to the candidacy of the individual currently serving as Vice President of the United States, identified in the rules as Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Other individuals indicating the same name on FEC filings, whether fraudulently or otherwise, will not impact the settlement of this market. PredictIt has the right and absolute discretion to determine if someone has filed a statement of candidacy under the same or similar name but is not the person intended or pictured in the question. Are you guys happy, now?
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Sep 24, 2015 02:07
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