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Necc0 posted:19x Yeah yeah yeah, math and logic, this is politics dammit, numbers don't have to make sense.
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Sep 29, 2015 00:12
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I have not seen that, but it sounds pretty legit. There's no real way to prevent insider trading. Just bought 100 shares of Shutdown YES for 6 bucks. Come onnnnnn, last minute insanity.
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Sep 29, 2015 18:53
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Yeah I've got my money on Jindal at the moment, but I'm sure I'm going to get burned by Pataki or Graham or Santorum getting bored. The reason people are big into Paul right now is someone wrote a "death watch" article about him, but anyone in the lower 90% has a potential to get that article written at any point.
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Sep 29, 2015 22:45
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I've got some bad news for you... Eh, I just unloaded them on the poor sucker who for some reason had like 14,000 buy offers for 1 cent. I lost 4 bucks, and it's a market I made about 200 off of earlier, so I'm happy with losing a longshot.
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Sep 30, 2015 22:19
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I think he would want to be in the debate on the 13th, so earlier than that really. Failing that (and maybe that's honestly a good move, let the 2 big dogs show their weaknesses), he would want to file by November 6 to be on the ballot in every state.
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Sep 30, 2015 22:45
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Good call, that's probably today's ceiling on Biden. If you don't mind waiting until the end of the year, though, he's not running.
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Oct 1, 2015 18:33
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Oh God I just had a terrible idea. Make 10 YouTube accounts have them all very "Deepthroat in a parking garage-y" each one predicting a different outcome, the ones whose predictions fail you delete their accounts until you have one shadow man who has like 10 straight predictions and then you can manipulate the markets at will.
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Oct 2, 2015 21:55
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Yeah I wonder if they'll resolve the market when he says thanks but no or if they're going to hold onto it until the end of the year like they planned. And gently caress you guys who got cheap shares, I paid 54 for mine 
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Oct 4, 2015 15:51
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Ugh why won't they let me profit on Jeb nomination NO? I'm just trying to sell at 72, but that fucker can't move the needle past 69.
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Oct 5, 2015 19:27
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Yay someone bought my Bush, thank you kind angels, may you get more profit than the measeley ten cents a share I sucked out of it
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Oct 5, 2015 22:13
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Gyges posted:Looking at the comments for Christie out next, did he seriously only just get his website up today? He also just got caught having a private e-mail server which he's been bitching at Hillary for (and he's refusing to hand it over in the bridgegate investigation). He's also from Jersey. He's definitely not winning poo poo, but I don't know about next out.
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Oct 5, 2015 23:31
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It is in fact possible that Biden decides he's going to run but all the speculation so far has been from 'friends' and anonymous sources, while Biden himself has said he's not in the mood to run, he's not going to the debate, and it's really loving late in the cycle. Also today Claire McCaskill said "Biden is definitely not running." This shot the price of Biden YES up to 67 cents because this market is insane.
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Oct 6, 2015 17:52
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Yeah if you can wait two years. I think people are starting to figure out the time opportunity of this stuff, so markets are moving more slowly.
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Oct 7, 2015 17:17
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Yeah I don't think they can close that market until literally 2016. I mean hell they have Paul Ryan and Jerry Brown as still viable markets. And Scott Walker. And Sarah Palin.
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Oct 7, 2015 18:33
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Necc0 posted:lmfao McCarthy I am so so so glad I bought 50 NO shares on a whim yesterday when I figured there'd be a little movement because of the Chaffetz/Webster crap. This is terrible for the country but it's okay for my wallet.
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Oct 8, 2015 17:47
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Yeah the speaker market is way too iffy. Paul Ryan might get one of his dead hookers brought up and forced into it and he might be feeling morose over his future presidential aspirations since the current crop of republicans are absolutely poisoning the brand (that poison is loving stark right now after the democrat debate looked to be so much more adult than the republican insanity), but at the same time he seems pretty immune to party machinations. But there's literally no one else who can win unless the 'sensible' side of the republican party decides it's to their benefit to give in to Webster. Honestly if there were a market for "will the house be a clusterfuck until 2017" I'd buy a shitload of YES at this point.
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Oct 14, 2015 17:07
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So Ben Carson is suspending his public campaign events, but he plans to resume them in 2 weeks and is continuing to do private events in those 2 weeks. In other words, he has not dropped out. But some people just read the headline and drove the NO price down to 70: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1251/Will-Ben-Carson-be-the-next-Republican-candidate-to-drop-out#data1 edit: It appears to be one unfortunate fellow in the comments who didn't read the rules edit: Aaaaaaaaannnnddd it's gone. No is back up to 90. Quickest 20 bucks I ever made! pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 18:40 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 18:29
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I just hope when he officially announces no, I'm quick enough to cancel all of my sell orders (staggered at 66, 75, and 90) and put them up at 97.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:26
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EngineerSean posted:It's unlikely that PredictIt would close the market before the price hit 90. Yeah, he'll announce no/yes and then there will be a huge panic with a flurry of trading on the boards for about an hour before it all closes.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:40
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Well I'm still making a profit with my staggered sells, I'd just like to be as greedy as possible when I know I've got the winning hand. Also, fun fact I just learned: when you sell a share, it always sells your oldest held shares first instead of the ones that would make you the most profit.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:54
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As usual, it's turning out CNN is ginning up the story. Someone at NBC asked one of the actual sources for their story and said Joe was simply asking what his chances were at this late in the game. https://twitter.com/kwelkernbc/status/654742903542034432 She doesn't say what the answer was, but we can all be pretty sure the answer was "not too good Joe."
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Oct 16, 2015 00:59
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Fuschia tude posted:No, only when the market closes. He can say "no" and still potentially run after, so Nos won't get paid until 12/31/2015. (Or if he becomes mentally incapacitated or something I guess.) Ah balls, fair enough then. If he goes no, it'll just be the market drying up to watch out for
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Oct 16, 2015 05:19
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In re to this going on a long time, I agree and just put up 35 of my shares at 50 just to de leverage. This market could be whacky for ages.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:50
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Gyges posted:It looks like it's just taking how much you paid for your current shares and comparing that to the current price. Yeah I'm up overall but because my Obama poll shares (ugh gently caress polls seriously, that's literally gambling) had gone down I was showing -5.00.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:32
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ˆˆˆˆˆBiden YES is incredible, the comments section is convinced he's running when all the news stories sound like he's assessing, not hiring. Yeah polls are loving dumb, literally the only winning strategy is to buy, then sell off once you've made ten cents a share if that. This one just had a spike from 10 to 90 in three different markets: https://www.predictit.org/Market/1618/What-will-Obama's-average-job-approval-be-at-end-of-day-October-16 pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 19:13 on Oct 16, 2015 |
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Oct 16, 2015 19:09
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What people are really turned on about is the campaign manager is saying if Biden will run, he's gonna run on middle class values. He's a campaign manager, that's how he talks.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:19
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He could definitely still run. It would be a disastrous decision for him, but he could do it. I think our thread is mostly banking on how bad of an idea it would be, but where we may be failing is that Biden may not be the best idea-haver of all time.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:27
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It's pretty obvious Biden wants to run and is gearing up his machine, but it's also obvious he hasn't made a decision. I think he's letting it go to a sort of coin flip: Hillary looked like she rocked the debate, but do the poll numbers back it up? If she indeed did rock it (and she did) Joe bows out.
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Oct 18, 2015 18:45
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Jamelle Bouie will go down with us if Biden makes the dumbest move in political history: https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/656146448120201216 quote:Jamelle Booo-eeee!Verified account Honestly, the best thing will be if Biden simply doesn't say anything for the rest of the week. That would be beautiful.
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Oct 19, 2015 17:36
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If he runs, it'll be easy to recoup your money at least by buying in on the NO dive in the Biden nomination market.
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Oct 19, 2015 19:01
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Ugh I wish I could choose which shares to unload, I'd sell some of my 25 for 40 just to make a profit, but it goes on which shares you bought first so my 54 centers are still holding me back.
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Oct 19, 2015 19:48
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Hold on let me butt dial CNN and impersonate Joe Biden saying "Man I can't wait to announce I'm running for president, wait is this on poo poo"
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Oct 19, 2015 21:39
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According to PredictIt, Justin Trudeau will be the next Prime Minister of Canada! Congratulations Canucks! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fay63NZBb8M
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Oct 20, 2015 00:02
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Yeah webb dropping out tomorrow means that market resolves, at least it better. I bought 100 shares as soon as I got the email from the campaign about the presser
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Oct 20, 2015 03:21
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Concerned Citizen posted:Not sure how Biden confirms he's running over lunch when they don't have lunch until 12:30 today. I think he's just trolling. It's also Bill Kristol. If Bill Kristol announces the sky is blue, buy shares in sky green, he's literally the most wrong pundit in Washington to the point where it's practically a performance piece. If Biden doesn't announce today, poo poo ain't happening until Saturday. You don't want to make that kind of announcement on Wed-Fri. If he does wait until Saturday, that's another week he lost out on and his numbers will drop to sub-10 by Christmas. All it will manage to do is taint the brand and hurt Hillary and Bernie's chances. Edited to add:  Bill Kristol, ladies and gentlemen. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 17:49 on Oct 20, 2015 |
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Oct 20, 2015 17:25
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Necc0 posted:Oh man I forgot the debt ceiling was so close. This ones gonna be good It seems an easy yes but I think we're at the peak on the value of YES before it resolves. Probably best to buy some low nos and ride them up 20 cents or so as we approach.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:30
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Question is when will the market resolve? Predictit can determine the market to have resolved earlier, so they could close it right now. Should I wait for that and get my full 900 dollars or just sell for 99 and make off with 891?
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Oct 21, 2015 17:53
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drat, the amount of salt in the comments is amazing, bunch of people really upset they can't sell out their thousands of YES shares that are now worthless.
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Oct 21, 2015 18:23
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I'm about to double my money apparently as I now have 1800 sell orders for 900 shares.
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Oct 21, 2015 18:30
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It seems to have cleared up, I did indeed manage to get 84 buys of 92 cent shares! Now can I get it all to get to 99, or must I bail at 98?
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Oct 21, 2015 19:27
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