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AUMA is now officially on the California November ballot, and polling is looking crazy good, like 60%-37% broadly in favor of legalizing. My main concern was that the cluster of competing initiatives would undermine signature gathering and none would make the ballot, but we're past that point now. And having weed play a role in CA heightens the chances that presidential candidates will have to touch the issue, and I'd imagine they'll be at least lukewarm-favorable "laboratories of democracy" which will be good for the other smaller state votes. And the near-inevitability of CA legalization can't hurt perception in other states. Even just CA and NV would be a huge coup and lock down a whole region of the US, AZ would be icing on the cake and a genuine Red state, and at least a few states will loosen medical. EDIT: RI and VT have no initiatives so would have to legislate in weed; didn't do it this year but 2017 could be good after a strong November in other states. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 16:04 on Jul 2, 2016 |
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Jul 2, 2016 16:01
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New Rasmussen poll shows Nevada 50-41-9 in favor of legalizing cannabis, and the most recent I know of for California is May and showed 60% in favor. Maine was 55% in May but that's an MPP poll so ymmv. Massachusetts is looking iffy with 51% against, and AZ is hurting at 39-52-8. Most recent I've seen for Michigan is March, 53%. Missouri is going for medical (support for full legal just wasn't there) and seems to have a reasonable chance, and Florida is trying medical yet again since they have to hit a 60% bar, not just majority vote, and fell just short in 2014. Vermont and Rhode Island, two states without a ballot process, both appear to have kicked the can down the road another year (yet again) but if multiple states legalize this year, I could see that increasing pressure on legislators in 2017. Though if Maine fails to legalize and Massachusetts probably won't, there's still an awkward lack of precedent on the East Coast for legalization (fringe case of DC aside). Here's a sum-up article: http://www.boulderweekly.com/features/cannabis-corner/reading-the-entrails-the-latest-marijuana-polls/
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Jul 29, 2016 01:33
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WI doesn't allow ballot initiatives, so either their legislature would have to legalize, or if they're like RI the legislator can pass the buck and put it on the ballot. EDIT: barring some huge weed sea-change, I can't imagine fewer than three states legalizing. Will be very interesting to see what the next targets are for 2017-2018. Unless weed gets spanked at the polls, VT (especially if ME passes) and RI look strong next year.
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Jul 29, 2016 02:46
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Assuming some best-case where all the above pass, Wisconsin has a good shot, and oddly enough Montana (only 24k signatures needed to get it on the ballot, almost made it this year). I could also see a calculated decision to work decrim in holdout states, which could be cheap while still providing momentum and undermining prohibition. The only remaining states without decrim, medical, or legal are Idaho, Utah, both Dakotas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana, and West Virginia. A lot of "medical" states have seriously weak "just CBD oil for a dozen epileptic kids in clinical trials" but it beats zero. Texas could be a slam-dunk for decrim between urbanites and Hispanics (if cast as a racial bias enforcement issue), and TX while polling only 45% for full legal has at least had it discussed in the Legislature. If the East Coast finally breaks into legal, Connecticut and Maryland are good next prospects, and both border legal areas and are reasonably small states to fund campaigns in. DC's successful campaign was run out of one dude's house and financed by individual donors and Dr Bronner's soap, so there's some precedent for small jurisdictions doing a lot on a shoestring budget since the bar for success is low. Montana only needs 24k signatures to get on the ballot, for example. Hawaii would be an interesting case: high polls, high usage, and heavily tourist-focused economy. Barring a complete and total shellacking in November, I'm feeling pretty good for the coming years. CA alone would be a enormous coup, NV is strong and just builds the Western base, but it would be lovely to see an East Coast and a mid-country toehold. EDIT: calling Oklahoma and Kansas as last states to allow anything, maybe even staying illegal or not allowing a commercial system even following federal legalization. By contrast, Nebraska decriminalized in the 1970s, so we can just all agree the other two states suck. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 04:02 on Jul 29, 2016 |
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Jul 29, 2016 03:56
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That would we delightful; AZ seems proper hosed though. Partially because they had two competing legalization drives and the failed one is actively campaigning against the successful one. By the time this year is done, AZ and OH may be the standing examples of how to gently caress up a campaign, though the prior CA one was sketch too.
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Jul 29, 2016 04:31
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Not the most prominent place, but the US territory of the Marianas Islands is proposing legalization: https://blog.mpp.org/uncategorized/northern-mariana-islands-may-vote-end-marijuana-prohibition/ If the senator is successful by mid-August, it could end up on the 2016 ballot. Fwiw, Guam and Puerto Rico passed medical recently. American Samoa remains pretty much the strictest anti-weed territory in the US. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 03:58 on Aug 10, 2016 |
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Aug 10, 2016 03:55
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CNMI missed the deadline to get legal on the 2016 ballot, now aiming for 2018: http://www.marijuana.com/blog/news/2016/08/u-s-territory-wont-vote-on-legal-marijuana-this-year/ They tried legal in 2010 and passed the House but failed in the Senate. Given these tries, and the island's sky-high cannabis consumption, it seems pretty likely they'll be the first US territory to eventually legalize.
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Aug 12, 2016 05:39
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MA is weird; most recent thing I could find is a 7-10 Sept WBUR poll of 506 voters coming our 50-45 for legal weed (MoE 4%) so looking like a real nail biter: http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/09/13/wbur-ballot-question-poll CA and NV I'm pretty confident on, moderate on Maine. I'd given up on AZ, but an August pop of 700+ has 50-40 in favor so idk: http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/07/poll-half-want-see-marijuana-legalized-arizona/89778892/ MO and MI missed their wickets this go-round? And VT and RI are still on the precipice of becoming the first states to legalize legislatively without the voters. Honestly anything short of getting totally skunked (  ) I'd count as a 2016 victory, and all the more so if Hillary wins and makes at least vague motions to rescheduling. A clean sweep of five legal states isn't impossible, and at least a couple medical should win. Overall even incremental progress is a huge win; hell, anything short of ATF rapelling into Portland weed boutiques is a big-picture win even if zero progress is made from now until 2020.Yet again, a reminder that even just five years ago SA had 100+ page threads insisting that not a single state would be able to legalize without getting stormed by the Feds anytime in our lifetime, yet here we are. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 03:49 on Sep 16, 2016 |
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Sep 16, 2016 03:40
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Yeah, saw that recently; basically Texas leaning towards de facto decrim for "respectable" people, presumably while still stomping the poor and/or minorities. I did enjoy the line: "we expect law enforcement and prosecutors to use discretion and put the resources in the best place,” said state Rep. Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola." It seems some of the folks are avoiding charges through diversion and all that. At what point do even drug diversion folks roll their eyes? Purely anecdotal, but in the military I knew a couple guys sent to AA for getting caught drunk underage or acting up, that had AA tell them "authorities say you have to attend X months, but honestly you're not an alcoholic you're just a dumbass."
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Sep 16, 2016 05:53
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Jonny 290 posted:and i think the governor of Wyoming threatened to sue Colorado to make us "pay for the policing" or something? lol as if they don't turn a profit on a weed case. Nebraska and Oklahoma tried suing CO directly, while WY declined to join the suit but was considering suing the Feds for not smacking CO down. If MA and ME both go, VT and RI should go quick via legislature, and that'd be four out of the six states of New England. Will CT be the last holdout, or is Stamford going to become the primary supplier for the whole greater NYC?
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Sep 19, 2016 17:11
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Even though this it's just a matter of visual impression, if we get a clean sweep the literal displayed map of "legal states" is going to start looking really inevitable when a huge chunk of the American west is all sewn up and another branch sliding down from New England. Somehow it'll look just more impressive every time it pops up on the news than if it were the same number/mass of disjointed states. I hope the Wikipedia graphics crew is on the ball to make some modifications to the graphics for the legal weed map once the results post. EDIT: despite the NM legislature not getting around to putting weed on this November ballot (after tossing the ball around a good while), a January poll has NM in favor of legalization with 61%, so that's a ready population waiting for a shot, and would give a cleaner map linking in the Colorado exclave. Not that it matters hugely since you can't legally do weed interstate commerce, just saying the map would look cleaner. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 23:07 on Oct 4, 2016 |
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Oct 4, 2016 23:02
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Beyond the 5 states voting this November, are there any comprehensive lists of states ranked by legalization polls to give some idea, in theory, which states are next in the hopper following 2016?
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Oct 5, 2016 00:41
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:I think we can all assume Utah will be the last to go You'd think that to one degree, but Utah was surprisingly quick to come over to (limited) medical well before the majority of states. But I think a good chunk of the South and a few Central states (Kansas, Wyoming) won't legalize internally until the Fed devolves it to solely a state issue internally like alcohol.
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Oct 5, 2016 04:56
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Powercrazy posted:Which the president can do unilaterally and yet... Here are the states *other* than the ones voting to legalize in November, that have polled majorities in favor of legal weed: - Maryland 63% - New Hampshire 61% - Rhode Island 55% - Pennsylavian 57% - Ohio 52% - Florida 56% - Michigan 53% - Vermont 56% - New Jersey 58% - Virginia 54% - Connecticut 63% - Delaware 56% - New York 57% - Hawaii 66% - Georgia 54% - Indiana 52% - Texas 58% - New Mexico 52% - Louisiana 53% Now this is from NORML, and it's a mish-mash of various pollsters and methodologies, but all these are at least "legal possession of small amounts by adults", so full-legal vice decrim, and some phrased explicitly as "treated like alcohol". That said, if we get the full monty in November, that's nine states and DC legal, and 19 on this list above. The question just becomes which states are easiest/quickest/cheapest to push through, and what interested parties see what degree of profit in it. Then it just becomes a matter of when the Feds break down and just accept that a significant portion of the country wants legal weed. Even just five years ago folks thought we'd not see a single legal state in our lifetime, and here we are.
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Oct 12, 2016 04:36
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Aliquid posted:unrelated, but looking at the numbers, Arizona has exactly as many people in it as Massachusetts, a historical mindfuck http://www.theonion.com/article/pretty-cute-watching-boston-residents-play-daily-g-31554
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Oct 12, 2016 05:04
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The Glumslinger posted:Probably like their profit margins the way they are And/or concern that MPP-initiated legislation out of DC won't take Maine's "unique culture" into account. Which I refuse to interpret as anything other than "pot shops should be cute Victorian seaside bungalows run by a cantankerous white-haired old man who says things like 'lobstah' and sells THC-laced stick candy and saltwater taffy."
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Oct 12, 2016 07:55
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For the channels covering presidential election results live on Election Day, do they tend to also mention results on state initiatives of interest like these? Like if I'm watching a mainstream news channel that night are they likely to mention how the weed initiatives are progressing in the polls? I'll also have fun checking the Twitter of noted fellow Kevin Sabet, one of the main go-to anti-weed pundits nationally. Mostly to see what he *doesn't* say. In 2014 on the day after AL, OR, and DC legalized, the focus of Sabet's twitter was the news that some suburban village of 3,000 people in Colorado had voted to ban weed shops.
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Oct 19, 2016 20:02
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Has it been ages since either candidate said the slightest thing about weed, and both are almost identical with "not sure I like it but Laboratories of Democracy"? Or did I miss any key public statement? Kinda odd that weed initiatives are so big this year but the discourse seems largely local.
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Oct 20, 2016 00:26
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Am I just biased by the DC campaign, or do pro-weed sides usually trounce the opposition on fundraising? Is that partially due to small individual donors, or mostly small companies and angel investors looking to sell weed?
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Oct 20, 2016 02:40
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Arizona with a promising 50-42-8 for mid-October, 700-some respondents. At this point are we looking at three solid and two soft? No data since August for North Dakota medical, which was 47%, but Arkansas over 60%. EDIT: Sept polling for AR has only 49-43-8 for the more popular legalization ballot (dispensaries only) and only 36% for the one that allows some people to grow at home. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 05:35 on Oct 22, 2016 |
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Oct 22, 2016 05:33
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Don't forget, even Alaska has two senators; if we get all five states this fall, that'll be 18 senators repping states with legal weed. Sure CO, WA, MA, and CA are D/D, but Nevada and Colorado are R/D on Senators, Maine is R/I, and Alaska and Arizona are straight red. So if we get them all this year, that would (under *current* senators, some of which may change): - 10 Dem senators - 7 Rep senators - 1 Independent senator ... all from states where weed is now legal, where weed is or will bring in millions for the state's economy. That's just one more reason why small states are still a win. EDIT: for public opinion, Gallup is saying across the natojn 60% favor legal (80% for age 15-34), Pew says 57%: http://www.thecannabist.co/2016/10/19/marijuana-legalization-poll-gallup-2016/65663/ EDIT2: Holy crap, Utah's Dem candidate for governor had his wife get caught with 2 *pounds* of MMJ; wonder how that's coloring the race: http://www.thecannabist.co/2016/10/19/mike-weinholtz-utah-medical-marijuana/65602/ TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 03:39 on Oct 24, 2016 |
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Oct 24, 2016 03:30
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Michigan was almost the 6th state to be voting to legalize in November, but their initiative got bumped on procedural grounds. Looks like MI and MPP are already eyeing 2018: http://hightimes.com/news/michigan-to-get-push-from-mpp-to-legalize-marijuana-in-2018/ In a few weeks I expect we'll be seeing a lot more about the 2018 battle plan, and/or RI and VT legislatively legalizing in 2017.
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Oct 30, 2016 04:52
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Malachy posted:Fun fact: Our terrible governor and state house jammed a bill through to change the rules on ballot initiatives so he wouldn't get recalled which had the side effect of killing the proposal for recreational marijuana. Sucks for anyone getting arrested in MI in the next two years, but silver linings is it helps concentrate ad funds for 2016 and gives a clear whammy for 2018 (provided they don't pull an Ohio). News looks to be playing up that a quarter of the country could have legal weed in a couple weeks. Interesting to see too that multiple states will have a year-long gray area where you can have weed but there's no purely legal path to get it short of airborne seeds randomly landing in your window-box. DC (which is barred by Congress from having weed stores) has had a number of extremely popular seed giveaways at local pubs, just ensuring that no donor is physically holding over 2oz of seeds as they parcel out to recipients. Anecdotally, some folks have encountered the awkward siatuation of having six productive plants per adult in their house, and no way to move their yield short of 100+ friends each walk out with a free 2oz to unload it.
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Oct 30, 2016 05:21
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I'm thinking VT and RI strong chances for 2017, and MI, WI, and maybe MD, DE, NJ, and NM for 2018. 2020 might just be ludicrous. EDIT: NJ already saying "as soon as we get a new governor": https://www.google.com/amp/www.nj.com/articles/19510231/legalizing_pot_most_important_change_for_nj_econom.amp?client=safari TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 06:15 on Oct 30, 2016 |
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Oct 30, 2016 06:12
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GonadTheBallbarian posted:Really interested to see what NH does given it'll be almost surrounded by legal weed in 2017 (Canada/ME/MA) Plus VT has been right on the edge for years. I've noticed an increasing popularity of "let's just watch the other states for a few more years" as an anti- stalling tactic.
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Oct 30, 2016 07:24
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RI governor, again a state without ballot initiatives, says she's improving oversight of their MMJ program in preparation for eventual Recreational in RI. Their legislature has looked at it a few times but I imagine ME and MA legalizing will really give them a push. VT and RI are the next ones to watch. http://turnto10.com/news/local/rhode-island-governor-watches-massachusetts-marijuana-ballot
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Nov 2, 2016 21:50
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Karl Barks posted:new hampshire, live free or die, unless you want to smoke weed Get involved with your local chapter of NORML. Your state is small so even just a few people can have an outsized effect. When DC had to turn in signatures to get legalization on the ballot, I personally collected 2% of what we needed in valid signatures, so small places can be easy to sway. Decrim keeps repeatedly failing in NH, so if you and a few friends can show up at hearings dressed like sober adults, that can make a difference. NH has a strong favoring for legal (like 60+%) and the House keeps passing weak decrim and the Senate smacking them down. Email NH NORML, get on their email lists, go to events and take some friends. And if it's an event that's supposed to sway the public or lawmakers, and not just internal socializing, then look clean cut and be ready to make short articulate statements in favor.
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Nov 3, 2016 03:21
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I wanted to google up and post some cool animated map showing the changes in US weed law by year, but even maps that stop just a couple years ago are hugely out of date. To put it another way, only 7 states and 2 US territories have zero form of Legal, Decrim, MMJ, or CBD oil. The remaining sticks in the mud: American Samoa, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, North Dakota, Northern Mariana Islands, South Dakota, West Virginia Or another way, the entire American South save Arkansas has some form of usable weed product, and Arkansas is voting on Medical next week, which could put them up there into full MMJ. The only other Southern state with full MMJ is Louisiana for whatever baffling reason.
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Nov 3, 2016 03:34
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Dmitri-9 posted:The governor of Idaho is so spiteful that he vetoed a CBD-only law, the same type of law pioneered by the famously libertine Utah. Butch Otter? What was his rationale? loving *Oklahoma* has some kind of half-assed CBD measure, I'm baffled that a Rocky Mountain state somehow can't beat Kansas. I'm so looking forward to seeing the updated maps after Election Night, watching that color creep in from the margins and the pale bits fill in at the center...
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Nov 3, 2016 04:07
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I've moved out of DC, but as I understand it despite weed being legal to grow/gift/possess/use they're still banned from setting up a retail framework by Congress. Interesting angle though: DC Council is trying to set up a reciprocity law allowIng non-residents with a qualifying condition or MMJ card from another jurisdiction to buy from DC dispensaries: http://blog.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2016/10/washington-d-c-bill-would-allow-medical-marijuana-reciprocity-with-other-states/
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Nov 3, 2016 07:55
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Found a simple summary of Butch Otter's quote:
TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 00:35 on Nov 4, 2016 |
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Nov 4, 2016 00:16
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Wikipedia has a graphics volunteer on standby to update the US Weed Legality map as soon as clear results stabilize. Looking forward to the steady advancement of the dialectic.
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Nov 5, 2016 04:59
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Nevvy Z posted:Ohio got so hosed on this issue. Didn't they waste enough money having that fail at the polls in 2015?
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Nov 5, 2016 08:03
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Huh, yet another blast-from-the-past reason to dislike Pence:quote:In February 2013, a bill to decriminalize small amounts of marijuana was killed in committee. Following that, the Senate offered an amendment to the previously-approved House Bill 1006, which had included decreased penalties for cannabis possession, with an amendment to instead raise certain types of possession from misdemeanors to felonies. Governor Mike Pence stated: "I think we need to focus on reducing crime, not reducing penalties."[1]
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Nov 5, 2016 08:18
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Just doing some visualizing the timeline and it's interesting to look at state-level stuff by era: 1910s-1930s: MA bans sales of weed without a prescription in 1911, and by 1933 more than half the states have criminalized recreational weed. Then the feds came and hammered down in 1937 and that was the end of legal weed nationwide. 1970s Feds crack down more, ignoring a fed report that decriminalization would make more sense, so about a quarter of the states decriminalize small-scale possession to varying degrees during that decade, with "no jail time" being the cutoff for "decriminalized", some still made it a misdemeanor with fines, others a civil infraction. Interesting that the decrim trend totally petered out (as best as I can tell) once Reagan hit. 1990s-Present Bunch of states start legalizing medical, starting with CA in 1996 2010s-Present States start legalizing recreational, with CO and WA in 2012 Basically four eras where new things started happening all of a sudden, and then trickled down to the other states once someone broke the new ground. Interesting stuff. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 09:52 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 09:37
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RI and VT will be the next ones to watch for Recreational. For MMJ, Oklahoma had a procedural kerfuffle that prevented MMJ being on this November's ballot, so the dispute now is if it goes on the 2018 ballot or goes to a special election in 2017: http://www.thecannabist.co/2016/10/03/oklahoma-medical-marijuana-ballot-spot/64470/
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Nov 5, 2016 22:43
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Aliquid posted:I'll never understand why activists shoot for off-year elections. Off-years suck because old/conservative people disproportionately vote, but a *special* election on Oklahoma I expect would be in our favor. At least nationally speaking, I think people who are really-really pro-weed outweigh the really-really-anti and are more likely to turn up to vote on that single issue. MaxxBot posted:This is pretty neat, mainstream Dems have been really squeamish about this issue and this is another sign that's starting to change. 
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Nov 6, 2016 21:13
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Wikipedia has "Cannabis in XYZ" articles for almost every one of the fifty states and the territories, but it still has a few key weak spots. If anyone is interested in writing a Wikipedia article for Cannabis in any of the following states, shoot me a PM and I can walk you through it if you're new. You don't need any prior existing knowledge, just the ability to look up facts, state the facts, and cite the source you used. Could be a fun project: -- Alaska -- Florida -- Michigan -- Ohio -- Washington State -- District of Columbia TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 08:01 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 02:51
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I feel good on four of five of the legal votes, but Arizona looks to be a nail-biter. The campaign is saying it could be close enough we won't have a decision until a few days after the election, could be a margin of a few thousand votes or fewer. Pro-weed forces have dumped a ton of funding into AZ last-minute; I think Dr Bronner's Soap alone gave them like $300k. Meanwhile, the Catholic diocese in Boston gave $850k to fight Question 4; only Sheldon Adelson has given more against MA weed than that. MA still polling well however, this is the year the East Coast cracks. TapTheForwardAssist has issued a correction as of 17:40 on Nov 7, 2016 |
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Nov 7, 2016 17:35
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Ice Cream Barbara posted:Medical marijuana will not be on the ballot this year in MO, a judge invalidated a large portion of the petition signatures. IIRC, MO, MI, AR, and OK all had weed ballot initiatives nailed on technical grounds and either blocked from the ballot and/or pushed back to a later year. I don't know if that's par for the course for ballot initiatives, or just their states pulling out all the stops to keep the question from going before the voters. ~~~~
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Nov 8, 2016 22:43
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