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HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

hooman posted:

"People are ignoring the problems that I, a white straight male, have!"

Unless he's arguing "FFS just give the gay people rights this is a settled issue so we can work on other problems".

I think that is in fact what he is arguing, that there are more important things to worry about.

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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

Birdstrike posted:

I think I agree Cartoon on that there's more likely to be an easing of house prices as opposed to a crash, but I am a bit unsure about where the difference lies. 10%? 25%?

Also, the time frame it happens in matters. 25% over one or two years is a crash but over 10 years it's probably just a correction.

The fact that Labors negative gearing changes are fully grandfathered further supports a correction over a crash. IMO the existing negatively geared properties should slowly have the current benefits eroded over a decently long period of time. Otherwise they have very little reason to sell the properties unless there are other financial factors that are forcing them to. Also, in the period before the changes come into effect there could be a increase in investors trying to get into the scam while the grandfathering is on offer.

Of course, it's hard to say what negative gearers will do if the market stops going up and instead flat lines or slowly decreases. They rely on the capital gains to make money and if they can't see those gains being worth it then they might just sell and move their money to more profitable investment classes.

The housing market is so stupidly complex with so many interlinked parts and drivers for supply and demand that it's incredibly hard to say what is going to happen.

I will make a prediction that if any market (in Melbourne at least) is going to crash it will be the inner city apartment market. It's just a pity that most of those a loving horribly constructed and designed shoe boxes that most people wouldn't or shouldn't want to live in.

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

HookShot posted:

I think that is in fact what he is arguing, that there are more important things to worry about.

I don't know, it reads very much "Gay rights are less important than road congestion" which is pretty offensive.

tithin
Nov 14, 2003


[Grandmaster Tactician]



I dunno if no one is paying attention to the whole cardinal pell thing, but there's reports his security were assaulting journalists to stop them asking questions prior to the police video link.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/704145555530731520

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again
The LNP's use of the Brisbane City Council's branding image in the run-up to the 19 March municipal poll is "underhand, unethical and blatant cheating", the Greens' Lord mayoral candidate Ben Pennings says.

And Mr Pennings slammed the council's administration for failing to protect its intellectual property, claiming it had "rolled over" to its political masters at City Hall.

Under council rules, the council's distinctive pattern of alternating yellow and blue blocks down the left-hand-side of official council documents must not be used for political purposes.

Team Quirk, led by Lord Mayor Graham Quirk, is repeating a tactic it used successfully in the 2012 poll by once again campaigning extensively with roadside billboards, footpath signs and letterbox and other printed material that contains a copycat council cleat that The Independent has argued for years is used for no other reason than to make voters think it is the official cleat and that Team Quirk therefore has some form of official support from council.

"The LNP's use of Brisbane City Council's colours and cleating is underhand, unethical, and blatant cheating, Mr Pennings said in response to questions from The Independent. "They are attempting to very closely associate the LNP with the positive BCC brand, even to signify some sort of BCC support.

"The LNP seem to increasingly see Brisbane City Council as their personal fiefdom. Political appointees and a 90 person strong marketing team keep the spin rolling, in what is now LNP branding.

"Any other company in the world would fight tooth and nail to protect their brand. Brisbane City Council instead rolls over and accepts this appropriation by a political party taking it, and the voters, for granted."


Chadzok
Apr 25, 2002

"So what you are saying, Mr Turnbull, is that young people should vote labor?"

Laserface
Dec 24, 2004

He keeps saying its going to lower the price of housing like its a bad thing.

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again
Is Turnbull putting a Marco Rubio and just repeating the same lowering pricing line robotically?

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Why the Coalition haven't come up with something to address housing affordability (even as a fig-leaf) is a mystery.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!

I love how not only did he not answer the question, he not-answered it in a way that directly endorses his opponents' policy. A rare moment when a Malcolm response is actually even worse for the LNP than the theoretical Tony one.

The Narrator
Aug 11, 2011

bernie would have won

Anidav posted:

Is Turnbull putting a Marco Rubio and just repeating the same lowering pricing line robotically?

It's just LNP strategy. Look also at Abbott's tenure as opposition and PM - just repeat the same lines over and over again.

Megillah Gorilla
Sep 22, 2003

If only all of life's problems could be solved by smoking a professor of ancient evil texts.



Bread Liar

tithin posted:

I dunno if no one is paying attention to the whole cardinal pell thing, but there's reports his security were assaulting journalists to stop them asking questions prior to the police video link.

drat, that's hosed up. Were they wearing those clown clothes when they did it?

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop
There's is actually another elephant in this room. Even though Sydney and Melbourne are going gang busters elsewhere in the country, that Turdball supposedly governs, prices are already going backwards.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...32168a3b202ffdb

quote:

TOUGH TIMES: WA homeowners top national mortgage default list
MOODY’S: Perth housing most affordable since 2004
PERTH had the worst performing property market out of any Australian capital city this year, according a new report released today.

Perth experienced the biggest fall in prices this year- with house prices dropping 6.1 per cent or $35,000 to $515,000, the report from CoreLogic RP data revealed.

Wrapping up the final results for 2015, the report also showed that Perth median apartment prices fell by 3.4 per cent this year to $415,000.

And that's just capitals. Commercial property values in regional areas have been down graded to as little as a third their 'boom' valuations. The general vibe from the real estate industry is that it's all still going OK, but they would say that. You look a little deeper and it's only areas that have some extraordinary lifestyle element going for them that are holding ground. The chief issue here is a lack of employment opportunities.

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop
But that's OK the LNP NSW Government has your back!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-29/nsw-government-considers-reducing-public-service-organisations/7206864

quote:

Fears for public service jobs as NSW Government considers cut to number of state-run organisations By state political reporter Ashleigh Raper Updated about 5 hours ago

Public service jobs in New South Wales could be lost as the State Government considers reducing the number of state-run organisations. NSW Treasurer Gladys Berejiklian will make her case for cuts in a speech to the Sydney Institute tonight. Excerpts from the speech revealed the Government was looking at reducing its entities, which include departments, agencies, state-owned corporations, boards, committees and trusts. The Treasurer ordered an expert panel to conduct an audit of the 870 organisations and present recommendations on how to make them "leaner and more efficient". In the written speech, she said "many of these identified bodies overlap in terms of the functions they perform". "There is an opportunity here to reduce this number," an excerpt said. "Not for the sake of it — but because it will reduce waste, streamline decision-making and make Government work better."

She is expected to use an example relating to the 76 crown land trusts that manage assets, recommending a merger of the organisations. "One of them manages a tennis court centre in Newcastle," an excerpt said. "Another manages a small historic pumping station near Maitland. "While the Government is yet to decide its exact course of action, the panel has recommended that these should not be separate trusts and should be merged into one."

Efficiency means job losses, Opposition says

Shadow Treasurer Michael Daley said New South Wales should be concerned by the Government's plan. "When Liberal governments talk about making things more efficient they just mean sacking people and cutting services," he said. But the Treasurer said the plan was about "more than simply saving money". In the speech Ms Berejiklian cited her work as Transport Minister. "One of my priorities was reforming the bureaucracy that delivers transport in NSW," the speech read. "When I left the Transport portfolio, there were 2,000 fewer back-office staff in Sydney Trains and NSW Trains than there were in RailCorp when I arrived. "At the same time, there were well over 1,100 extra services and customer satisfaction had increased."
I've actually been a member of one of those crown land trusts and it wasn't a paid position :psyduck: Also :laugh: at anyone claiming NSW rail as one of their success stories.

It's all about jobs! And there being less of them.

Flannelette
Jan 17, 2010



"Vote for my opponent "
-leader of incumbent party in an election year

Solemn Sloth
Jul 11, 2015

Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.
marginal seats are still dominated by people up to their eyeballs in mortgages who don't want to hear their property is going down in value and don't give gently caress one about anyone else.

The Dark Project
Jun 25, 2007

Give it to me straight...
Anyone with a Crikey sub able to repost this story? - http://www.crikey.com.au/?p=536891

And also the latest Rundle, if you can. Cheers!

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

Solemn Sloth posted:

marginal seats are still dominated by people up to their eyeballs in mortgages who don't want to hear their property is going down in value and don't give gently caress one about anyone else.

Yeah, young people don't have their parents to provide collateral for a loan are either going to vote for the LNP based on their racist refugee policies or vote against them for the same reason. No point pandering to people who are never going to vote for you anyway.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Doctor Spaceman posted:

Why the Coalition haven't come up with something to address housing affordability (even as a fig-leaf) is a mystery.

They'll probably want to save that until closer to the election before releasing that. If it's designed to be ineffective (which it most likely will be) you don't want to give people too much time to pick holes in it.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

Cartoon posted:

There's is actually another elephant in this room. Even though Sydney and Melbourne are going gang busters elsewhere in the country, that Turdball supposedly governs, prices are already going backwards.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...32168a3b202ffdb


And that's just capitals. Commercial property values in regional areas have been down graded to as little as a third their 'boom' valuations. The general vibe from the real estate industry is that it's all still going OK, but they would say that. You look a little deeper and it's only areas that have some extraordinary lifestyle element going for them that are holding ground. The chief issue here is a lack of employment opportunities.

If the chief issue in those areas (Perth in particular) is the lack of jobs, could the results there provide a rough guide as to what would happen to the rest of the country in case of a recession that causes higher unemployment etc?

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop

Periphery posted:

If the chief issue in those areas (Perth in particular) is the lack of jobs, could the results there provide a rough guide as to what would happen to the rest of the country in case of a recession that causes higher unemployment etc?
I guess so. But in Sydney/Melbourne population growth will probably continue to prop things up anyway. A recession is a bad thing in itself. We need to do something about our structural deficit that doesn't automatically include tax cuts. Talking up the bursting of the housing bubble is dumb on a number of levels. As I have already pointed out the rest of the country seems to be already adjusting to a property market that has locally peaked. The underlying strength of the Sydney/Melbourne market seems unlikely to be effected by the proposed changes (negative gearing/Capital gains tax discount).

Also I'm definitely not an expert in this area so I might not be the right person to consult on this in general.

Cleretic
Feb 3, 2010


Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!
I feel like Adelaide is the largest that kind of disaster can get in Australia. Manufacturing was all that it ultimately had, so when all the factories shut up shop there's no reason for anything else to stay, either. Cities like Sydney and Melbourne don't have nearly the same kind of centralised industry, so while something big up and leaving would hurt, it's neither as damaging or as likely.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
What is the AFP doing in Parliament?

The Narrator
Aug 11, 2011

bernie would have won

Jumpingmanjim posted:

What is the AFP doing in Parliament?

I saw the headline on Sky News this morning. Apparently nothing (other than some sort of ongoing investigation).

quote:

The Australian Federal Police have denied executing a search warrant and on the Parliamentary Office of any Federal member of Parliament in the past two weeks and seizing any material.

Officials from the department in charge of Parliament House have been assisting federal police with an investigation.

An AFP spokesman confirmed on Monday the agency had been 'conducting inquiries with the Department of Parliamentary Services in relation to an ongoing investigation'

However, the spokesman dismissed reports that a search warrant had been executed on an MP's office in the past fortnight, nor had officers approached any MP to voluntarily obtain documents.

Leader of the House, Christopher Pyne told Sky News he doesn't know the first thing about the reports or what they are in relation to.

The Narrator fucked around with this message at 07:03 on Feb 29, 2016

Aurubin
Mar 17, 2011

Isn't your real estate market extra hosed once the Chinese go belly up anyway? Or is that just Canada's?

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop
There's a sizable investment pool of Chinese money in Australia but China going "belly up" will hurt a bunch of other things first. Our mining sector is already suffering.

Realistically China going into even a shallow recession would spell disaster for the global economy.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...
The impact on property prices of international investment is horribly overstated in the media. It only makes up about 12% of the total market at the moment with China making up something like 2%. While China dying could directly have an effect on house prices I think the overall negative economic consequences would have a greater impact on housing prices than the Chinese not buying our homes anymore.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Periphery posted:

The impact on property prices of international investment is horribly overstated in the media. It only makes up about 12% of the total market at the moment with China making up something like 2%. While China dying could directly have an effect on house prices I think the overall negative economic consequences would have a greater impact on housing prices than the Chinese not buying our homes anymore.

It's one of those things that could go anywhere. Rental yields were less than the interest on term deposits a few months back so clearly people are in this for the capital gain when they sell rather than the ongoing income, and I wonder if this means that a small slide in demand that causes the price to plateau could trigger a wider sell-off as people start to question how much further the house prices will rise. Or maybe they'll just butt chug more koolaid and take out another mortgage because the only way is up up up.

KingEup
Nov 18, 2004
I am a REAL ADDICT
(to threadshitting)


Please ask me for my google inspired wisdom on shit I know nothing about. Actually, you don't even have to ask.

I wouldn't take his advice even if he answered the question. It's a dumb question to begin with. Politicians don't exist to give personal financial advice.

Here's some good advice though: don't buy McMansions or any unit that is painted in swathes of bright colours to distract you from the fact it is a poorly constructed eyesore unless you want to lose a fuckton of money. Some of the brand new apartments I've seen recently are absolutely appaling. I went to see a place in Coogee recently and it had a man whole in the ceiling that literally went nowhere and a 950000 pricetag. I mean lol, loving lol.

KingEup fucked around with this message at 07:41 on Feb 29, 2016

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

KingEup posted:

I wouldn't take his advice even if he answered the question. It's a dumb question to begin with. Politicians don't exist to give personal financial advice.

Here's some good advice though: don't buy McMansions or any unit that is painted in swathes of bright colours to distract you from the fact it is a poorly constructed eyesore unless you want to lose a fuckton of money. Some of the brand new apartments I've seen recently are absolutely appaling. I went to see a place in Coogee recently and it had a man whole in the ceiling that literally went nowhere and a 950000 pricetag. I mean lol, loving lol.

Are you in construction?

ewe2
Jul 1, 2009


Our Man In Rome, The Blot is eminently qualified to whitewash paedophiles.

KingEup
Nov 18, 2004
I am a REAL ADDICT
(to threadshitting)


Please ask me for my google inspired wisdom on shit I know nothing about. Actually, you don't even have to ask.

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Are you in construction?

No.

Also, I am getting fed up with people talking about income relative to average house prices as though that's some kind of 'check mate, we're hosed'. The most recent ABS census data we have indicates that 90% of mortagees spend less than 30% of their income on repayments and that was when interest rates were triple what they are now.

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.
There's no problem guys, pack it up

Cartoon
Jun 20, 2008

poop

KingEup posted:

No.

Also, I am getting fed up with people talking about income relative to average house prices as though that's some kind of 'check mate, we're hosed'. The most recent ABS census data we have indicates that 90% of mortagees spend less than 30% of their income on repayments and that was when interest rates were triple what they are now.
I'm not here to dog pile you but the evidence is pretty impressive:

All from http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/sep/pdf/bu-0915-3.pdf

This shows that the rate of price growth is outstripping any relation to underlying value AND CPI



This shows that the market has essentially hit saturation for what households can afford to spend on housing (30% of income is actually a pretty significant figure for housing see below).

quote:

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census data shows we are spending an average of $1,235 per month on rent or $1,800 on mortgage repayments. Mortgage and rent payments now consume about 20 percent of the average household budget, a percentage that has grown dramatically over the past few decades. Ten years ago, housing costs made up 17 percent of household spending, while 50 years ago that portion was just 8 percent. As well as housing itself, the cost of household bills has also risen, with Australians devoting 15.5 percent of their salary to phone, internet and power costs, spending an average of $633 each month.



And really the kicker. For all the big numbers, volatility and uncertainty, the underlying 'profit' isn't actually that great (on average):



We all know about the guy who sold their house that they bought in the eighties for $20, 000 and just made nearly a million dollars but that isn't everyone's story and it serves the real estate industry to advertise 'the guy'.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Why first-home buyers shouldn’t be hoping for a property price crash
, by No We Don't Have A Vested Interest.

Halo14
Sep 11, 2001
Pfft. Just pay interest until death and then it's the banks problem. They'll likely pass it on to your next of kin but YOLO!

Zenithe
Feb 25, 2013

Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.
:stonk:

quote:

TODAY, Cardinal George Pell is giving evidence via videolink from the Hotel Quirinale in Rome to the child sexual abuse royal commission.

It is the third time he has testified to the commission - the fourth, if you count the Victorian parliamentary inquiry which preceded it. He has hardly been hiding.

And yet the point of much of the unrestrained vitriol spewed at him is that he is a coward who has refused to “come home” to testify.

But Pell, 74, has a heart complaint and has been told by doctors not to fly, a fact accepted by royal commissioner Peter McClellan after some delay, which only served to add to pressure on the star witness of the $500 million exercise.

Watching Pell is a self-invited group of about 120, including 50 journalists and assorted victims, supporters and Pell-haters who have travelled to Rome, largely on the proceeds of an abusive ditty by anti-Catholic crooner Tim Minchin, calling Pell “scum” and “coward”.


Australian cardinal George Pell denies the accusation that he tried to “buy” the silence of Ridsdale’s nephew and victim David Ridsdale. Picture: Getty Images
The royal commission has sent “support staff” and media people, at unknown cost, to assist this unofficial lynch mob.

It doesn’t matter that he is in frail health and will have delivered 21 hours of testimony after today’s stint.

The worst accusations are that he helped move paedophile priest Gerald Ridsdale between parishes in the 1980s, when he was a junior priest in Ballarat under Bishop Mulkearns. However, as Father Eric Bryant has testified to the commission, at a 1982 meeting he attended with Pell, Mulkearns simply said Ridsdale was being moved because he had a “problem with homosexuality”.

Bryant said he didn’t link homosexuality with paedophilia and was offended by the suggestion put to him: “I know a number of clergy who are homosexual and who are the most decent people in the world... who have lived their celibacy to the letter. There’s others who have fallen weak and make mistakes but they don’t abuse children.”

Pell’s accusers must expect that he should have made that terrible link, which is ironic, because the central reason for his unpopularity is that he is a conservative priest who upholds the teaching of the Church and raised the eternal ire of homosexual ­activists by refusing to give them communion.

So he is fair game. But the indifference of much of the media to any semblance of fairness or legal restraint is astonishing.

The ABC has illustrated stories about Pell with images of a red toy truck, a cutout of his face glued into the driver’s side, and festooned with rocks and spiders, a blatant reference to “rock spiders”, slang for paedophiles.

On Channel 10’s the Project, Minchin debuted his vicious song in full, along with an illustration of a hollow cross with Pell inside with two altar boys.

There is no justification for this abuse of Pell in anything before the royal commission.

Pell denies the accusation that he tried to “buy” the silence of Ridsdale’s nephew and victim David Ridsdale, and at the time police were already investigating the paedophile, so there is no logic to the claim.

Anthony and Chrissie Foster, who have received $750,000 compensation from the church, accuse Pell of a “sociopathic lack of empathy” when he met them as the new Archbishop of Melbourne, to discuss the abuse of their two daughters by a priest a decade earlier.

But Pell was the most senior churchman to meet them and the first to respond with a plan to help victims, his Melbourne Response.

This is the profound unfairness of the attacks on Pell. He alone of any church leader in Australia responded to the crisis of child sexual abuse and set up a system in which claims would be investigated, counselling and compensation offered and victims would be directed to police.

He became Archbishop of Melbourne on 16 June 1996. Sick of the dithering inaction of his fellow bishops, within a month he had instructed Corrs lawyers to come up with a plan. By mid-October Peter O’Callaghan QC had been appointed the first Independent Commissioner, who went on to investigate 351 complaints of abuse, of which 97 per cent were upheld.

Pell acted with his usual decisiveness and efficiency, qualities invaluable to the Pope now as the Vatican’s top financial official, bringing integrity and transparency to Church finances.

Yet he has become the whipping boy, and even on the eve of his testimony this week, was betrayed by Victoria police who leaked vague allegations that Pell himself had sexually abused boys in the past.

This was an appalling intervention by police who are in the firing line themselves for failing to investigate complaints of child sexual abuse and for telling untruths about the church to the Victorian parliamentary inquiry.

Chief Commissioner Graham Ashton claimed 43 suicides related to child sexual abuse in the Victorian Church, but, after an internal investigation, only one could be confirmed. That’s one too many, of course, but the exaggeration cast doubt on the motives of police. Ashton also claimed police had not “had a single referral of a child sexual abuse allegation by the Catholic Church’’.

Wrong. As O’Callaghan has testified, of 304 complaints, 97 were reported to police, and 76 victims he encouraged to go to police.

So pleased were Victoria police at Pell’s initiative in 1996 that they issued a press release praising the Melbourne response, and NSW police royal commissioner Justice James Wood also lauded the Catholic Church’s response then as a “model” for other institutions to follow.

For its time, Pell’s response to the child sexual abuse plaguing the church was groundbreaking. Not perfect, but it acknowledged a problem, helped victims and referred offenders to police if possible.

There is evidence, however, that Victoria police seemed to drop the ball, whether because prosecutions in those days were too difficult or for some other reason, we don’t know.

Last week, for instance, former priest and psychiatrist Dr Peter Evans told the commission he was contacted by police in 1975 about the paedophile Ridsdale, who Bishop Mulkearns had asked him to assess after an allegation of child sexual abuse had been made against him.

“The police were certainly investigating it and knew about it. The police informed me that they would not be pressing charges. However, the policeman added that they … thought, he was guilty.”

So what you have today is one potential scapegoat accusing another of covering up paedophilia, and leaking untested allegations to bolster their case.

If all the abuse heaped on him would ensure that children never again suffered sexual abuse, perhaps even Pell would say it is a cross worth bearing.

But it does the opposite. By targeting the one man who tried to do the right thing it ensures that no future church leader in their right mind would take decisive action again.

To save his own skin, Pell would have been better to leave it to the hopeless cowards and naive bumblers who had presided over the evil in the Church for so long.

:barf::barf::barf::barf::barf::barf::barf::barf::barf:

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Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.
drat PC crowd

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