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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Quantum Mechanic posted:

We don't have a good answer. Strongly suspect it's because of accusations of fiscal irresponsibility, yes.

Surely there's enough evidence to prove that it would be a fiscally and socially responsible thing to do?

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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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hooman posted:

I've found the part of this that won't play with voters.

Evidence is meaningless, feels are important.

I guess the evidence is meaningless if you can't figure out the right way to sell the idea.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Laserface posted:

Why does it cost the community anything at all?

Emergency services aren't provided for free.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Laserface posted:

Why isnt the rescue costs transferred to the victim? thats how they handle out of bounds skiing in Japan and it seems to keep the noobs in check.

It's probably not worth the effort or cost associated with collecting the money or the long term costs of negative societal impacts of dumping a 400k+ cost on someone if they can't easily afford it. A user pays system for emergency services is a loving stupid idea.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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gay picnic defence posted:

I guess it would if the money was given out equally to everyone but you might be able to get around that by re-jigging the tax structure so that above a certain point you start paying an additional levy which effectively takes back the UBI money you received. The amount could be calculated weekly/fortnightly based on how much employment income you have bought in. Wouldn't need any addition bureaucracy because it would just be an automatic calculation.

Failing that, the government could just step in and set prices for everything to stop the cost of living from going up :ussr:

Could just alter the income tax brackets to so that the lower end keeps all their UBI while the top ones pay more. Then use the previous years tax return to calculate everyone's monthly UBI payment with the current years income tax paying or collecting any imbalances? That's how I kinda figured it could work, but I'm just spitballing here.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-13/bill-shorten-negative-gearing-capital-gains-tax-plans/7165462


gay picnic defence posted:

Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will announce plans on Saturday to change negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount if Labor wins the next federal election.

The key measures are:

Negative gearing to be restricted to "newly constructed homes"
Capital gains tax discount reduced from 50 per cent to 25 per cent
Both measures would come into force from July 2017
All existing investments under the scheme would be fully "grandfathered" and protected against the changes


Under costings released from the Parliamentary Budget Office, the measures could save the budget $32.1 billion over 10 years once they come into force.

Mr Shorten will unveil the plans at the NSW Labor conference in Sydney, in what he claims will be the "most important structural reform in a decade".

He will tell the conference the plan will help "level the playing field" by targeting what he calls are "entrenched" tax subsidies.

"We will put the great Australian dream back within reach of working and middle-class Australians, who have been priced out of the market for too long," Mr Shorten will say, in a pre-prepared speech provided to the ABC.

"Our new economic policy will encourage the building of thousands of new homes every year and increasing housing supply, it will help lower costs for renters and it will return the Commonwealth budget to a sustainable foundation."

Mr Shorten will promise existing investors who access negative gearing will be "no worse off" and there would be no changes to the capital gains tax rules on existing assets, including the family home.

Investments made by superannuation funds would not be affected under changes to capital gains tax, with the discount for small business assets to remain unchanged.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said the reform would put first home owners and buyers "on a more level playing field".

Mr Bowen told Channel Nine that current investors would also be protected from the changes.

"Every single investor who's already got an investment will have that grandfathered," he said.

"We do have a housing affordability crisis in Australia ... We need to make sure that negative gearing will remain, but that it is fair and that it is sustainable."

Mr Bowen said Labor wanted to "take the heat" out of the housing market and help create jobs by shifting the focus onto new homes.

Figures from the McKell Institute suggest up to 25,000 new jobs could be created in construction each year if the changes to negative gearing increased the number of new homes and apartments being built.

Under figures from the Parliamentary Budget Office, the savings would be minimal for the first financial year, at $15 million in 2017-18 but quickly increase to $580 million in 2018-19.

The Federal Government in recent weeks has indicated it is also looking at negative gearing as part of its overhaul of the tax system.

Superannuation tax concessions could also be in the mix, although the Coalition has begun backing away from the prospect of a hike in the GST.

A step in the right direction? The grandfathering seems a bit over the top but is probably needed to stop too many investors dumping their poo poo at the same time.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Malcolm Turnbullshit.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Anidav why are you posting poo poo that happened in 2013?

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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It would be a horrible world if the people could afford to buy a home in a location that gave them the necessary access to the infrastructure, services, jobs and social networks required to achieve to their desired standard of living. Just think of the carnage it would cause to the rental market!

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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iajanus posted:

Does more than 47% rent? Because if so that should be higher.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/1301.0Main+Features1292012

quote:

In the 2009–10 Survey of Income and Housing, it was found that an estimated 33% of households owned their homes outright (i.e. without a mortgage) and 36% were owners with a mortgage. A further 24% were renting from a private landlord and 4% were renting from a state or territory housing authority.

E: It's a bit old but I can't be bothered to find more up to date info atm. I can't imagine t would have changed too much since it's been pretty consistent.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Big Willy Style posted:

What does auspol think about lollipop ladies?

Target practice for my irl Carmageddon game. If they didn't want to be run over they shouldn't be standing in the middle of the road. They only have themselves to blame.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Is there somewhere that details exactly how much will be spent on defense over the next x years? I know it's currently around $32bn a year at the moment but I'd like a resource that maps it out a bit if possible.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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It's almost like people don't vote for political parties based purely on their policies!

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Birdstrike posted:

I think I agree Cartoon on that there's more likely to be an easing of house prices as opposed to a crash, but I am a bit unsure about where the difference lies. 10%? 25%?

Also, the time frame it happens in matters. 25% over one or two years is a crash but over 10 years it's probably just a correction.

The fact that Labors negative gearing changes are fully grandfathered further supports a correction over a crash. IMO the existing negatively geared properties should slowly have the current benefits eroded over a decently long period of time. Otherwise they have very little reason to sell the properties unless there are other financial factors that are forcing them to. Also, in the period before the changes come into effect there could be a increase in investors trying to get into the scam while the grandfathering is on offer.

Of course, it's hard to say what negative gearers will do if the market stops going up and instead flat lines or slowly decreases. They rely on the capital gains to make money and if they can't see those gains being worth it then they might just sell and move their money to more profitable investment classes.

The housing market is so stupidly complex with so many interlinked parts and drivers for supply and demand that it's incredibly hard to say what is going to happen.

I will make a prediction that if any market (in Melbourne at least) is going to crash it will be the inner city apartment market. It's just a pity that most of those a loving horribly constructed and designed shoe boxes that most people wouldn't or shouldn't want to live in.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Cartoon posted:

There's is actually another elephant in this room. Even though Sydney and Melbourne are going gang busters elsewhere in the country, that Turdball supposedly governs, prices are already going backwards.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/realesta...32168a3b202ffdb


And that's just capitals. Commercial property values in regional areas have been down graded to as little as a third their 'boom' valuations. The general vibe from the real estate industry is that it's all still going OK, but they would say that. You look a little deeper and it's only areas that have some extraordinary lifestyle element going for them that are holding ground. The chief issue here is a lack of employment opportunities.

If the chief issue in those areas (Perth in particular) is the lack of jobs, could the results there provide a rough guide as to what would happen to the rest of the country in case of a recession that causes higher unemployment etc?

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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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The impact on property prices of international investment is horribly overstated in the media. It only makes up about 12% of the total market at the moment with China making up something like 2%. While China dying could directly have an effect on house prices I think the overall negative economic consequences would have a greater impact on housing prices than the Chinese not buying our homes anymore.

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