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Coohoolin posted:So everyone's shat it and gone back to elect the other fuckups? Kinda. Looks like the only government that can be made is a grand coalition of FF and FG with FF being the smaller party.
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Feb 27, 2016 18:44
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Shatter is done. At least something good happened. Renua also don't look like they're getting anywhere.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:58
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Are people really thinking that Enda will step down? I never thought his position was fragile. Hell, the problem is more with Labour, not FG. I have no love lost for Enda or FG but these talking points are coming out of left field.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:12
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That's also an issue. People are saying Leo, but his seat is apparently in trouble? There is no real anointed one or anyone who seems to want to take the position right now.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:19
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Ah, makes sense. I was getting old news then.kustomkarkommando posted:You are going to have to blast Enda out with dynamite. No way is he going to forfeit the opportunity to be the first ever FG Taoiseach to serve two consecutive terms This also. He will hang on tooth and nail.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:36
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I bet Enda is raging about the result.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:35
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Possibly? Who else would go in apart from a rainbow of independents? One could argue that would be even less stable than a FG/FF government. It would also mean that we would be guaranteed a FF/Other government within the next year.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:42
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Burn it down. Start again.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:44
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I mean surely that would only work if FF get more or equal seats to FG? It'll be a very tough sell otherwise.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:56
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I really do not understand why turnout was so low. 65% is American levels of turnout.
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Feb 28, 2016 01:22
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Four seats for AAA/PBP!
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Feb 28, 2016 02:24
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I was planning to myself but I have work tomorrow. Was burned by the counting taking place today rather than overnight Friday. I was spoiled by the quickness of Canada and the UK.
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Feb 28, 2016 02:44
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Sinn Fein aren't doing as well as polls suggested which is disappointing, but they're outperforming 2011 which is a plus. Ideally we'd have a bigger left wing party but I'll take what I can get. At the very least these results mean I might be able to vote still this year.
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Feb 28, 2016 03:04
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Ooh I actually read up on Pringle a few weeks ago. Mostly due to the name. He seems pretty good.
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Feb 28, 2016 03:15
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I mean, he isn't wrong.
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Feb 28, 2016 03:26
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kustomkarkommando posted:Well there goes Ged Nash G'wan Louth
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Feb 28, 2016 21:16
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My fingers are still crossed for an error for Burton tbh.
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Feb 29, 2016 01:20
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I think the left's issue with Labour is they have shown they are not committed to a left platform. It isn't "sniping" as such as justifiable anger after being let down.
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Feb 29, 2016 01:34
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The question is if Kelly gets leadership will he be as happy as he was today? https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/703958965906845696
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Feb 29, 2016 02:09
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Drunk on power, I'd say. Just happy to get his fix.
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Feb 29, 2016 03:09
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Blut posted:They're more committed to a left platform than FF or FG though, at the least. I completely understand previous Labour supporters switching to other left parties (myself being one of them) for their 1st/2nd pref votes. But it seems silly to not even give a lower pref vote to Labour when it might potentially kept a right-wing TD out. SF seem to be more concerned with hurting Labour's brand for their own gain than with furthering the broader ideological left-wing cause. Which would be fine, if Labour weren't actively campaigning for a continue of the coalition. To vote for Labour is basically to vote for FG. Leftists don't want to continue to coalition because of how little Labour did to pull FG left. Your point that they are "more committed" to a left ideology makes no sense either. The last five years have not proven that. The only thing I will give them credit for is the Marriage Ref and the Gender Recognition bill, but FG are taking all the credit for that anyway and it downplays their involvement. Quinntan posted:Honestly, from what I know of their governance up north and of some of their more rural members, I'd be very surprised if they actually proved to be all that left-wing while in government. I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. Northern Ireland's power sharing would not allow them to push a left platform when you consider how right wing the DUP/UUP are. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 15:51
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Quinntan posted:No, a vote for Labour is a vote for at least some of the left's policies to be enacted. There's no way in hell the gay marriage referendum goes through without Labour being involved, for example. Some of the left's policies such as austerity, increased cost of third level education, cutting welfare and restricting it for younger people, HSE being barely funded... I could go on all day. The Marriage Ref was a good thing, but Jesus if that is the only thing they have to show for multiple failings over 5 years what reason does ANYONE have to support them? They were elected on a wave of promises to protect the people who were hurt most by the recession and they failed them. They had their chance in power and they did very, very little to help. Blut posted:It's all well and good to (correctly) disparage Labour's left credentials/actions since 2011 though, but in some constituencies the last seat this week was between an FF/FG candidate and a Labour candidate. In that scenario anyone who actually has left-leaning political views, regardless of party affiliation, should be hoping for a Labour win. I don't think anyone can doubt that both FG and FF are at the very least slightly to the right of Labour. And Labour have far more potential to swing back left than either of FF/FG. Again, the same points. It's not as if Labour are our only left wing party. There are SF, there is AAA/PBP, Social Democrats, Socialists, and a swarth of left leaning Independents. We are not dealing with a FPTP system. Ireland benefits from having a broad spectrum of parties and independent candidates. If we have the opportunity to punish a party who has failed us, we should take it. If Labour come back in 2021 or whenever and have reformed themselves into a party where they will actually put their foot down and represent the poor I will give them a preference. As it stands, myself, and other leftists, have no reason to put any preference for them in 2016. EDIT: The point that the left splits and can be reluctant to work together is true, but I do not think that this is the main reason for people pulling away from Labour in 2016. kustomkarkommando posted:PBP have been making a ruckus in West Belfast attacking SF for being weak on austerity and have been found quite a bit of agreement with voters, they are posed to take one seat from them in the next assembly election there. I will concede this point. I honestly do not know much of the current political rumblings in the North. I still find it hard to blame SF with the way the political system is set up in the North, but I will listen to people who know more about the North. Shame to hear, tbh. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 17:40
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The fact is that a vote for Labour was always a vote for a FG/Labour coalition. Leftists were tired of feeding Labour votes just so they can prop FG up. Maybe circumstances would be different if Labour weren't so married to FG and expressed an openness to coalition with SF and other leftists. This was not the case in 2016. They were passive in government and they were passive in the election. They deserved what they got. The problem you are addressing isn't one of leftists not voting Labour. It's people voting for FG or FF. When it comes down to brass tacks what exactly would happen if Labour got as many seats as 2011? If your answer isn't that they would prop up FG then I don't know what to tell you. People don't want another 5 years of FG/Labour. The reason they don't want it is because of how bad Labour handled being in government. Also, the point still stands that a FF/FG will not be stable. Both sides will be ratfucking each other instantly. Hard to see how either party comes out the better in that instance. The opposition parties like SF. SocDems, AAA/PBP, and yes even Labour if they are excluded will benefit hugely from a FF/FG government.
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Feb 29, 2016 19:37
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Quinntan posted:They're also over half the 2016 electorate judging by first preferences in this election. If you're casting out over half the electorate as lost causes or awful people, ye'll never get anywhere. Besides, if over half the electorate is going for the centre-right, as has happened in pretty much every national election ever in this country, it will take a lot of work from the left to get close to getting a leading party in a government. Of course ignoring the incumbent effect and the fact that these people have been the only parties in government since the foundation of the state, the fact that these parties have a lot more funding for advertising and for campaigners. There is also the fact that a lot of people just don't care for politics and vote for whoever their parents voted for pretty much. And of course you have the whole idea that these two juggernauts of Irish politics can only muster half of the popular vote together. The results for both parties are disappointing. This is hardly a victory for the centre right. Blut posted:The problem I'm addressing is not people voting for FG or FF. They're already lost causes/awful people. My problem is when you see SF/AAA candidates being eliminated, and their votes aren't transferring to Labour candidates still in the running. Thats a lack of lower preference voting for LAB from people of leftist views. My point still stands, that there are plenty of other options to vote left and not Labour. I really don't think that FF/FG sucked up as many Labour seats as the other left leaning candidates. We aren't dealing with a Conservative/Lib Dem situation here. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 20:55
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Quinntan posted:The whole of the left, including Labour, doesn't even get a third of the popular vote. It's progress since 2007, to be sure, but whether ye can continue making gains is something I'd be curious about. I would be very surprised if the left didn't continue to make gains with the current climate. The left's biggest issues are the incumbent effect and the uninterested voter's fear of change.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:45
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Crowsbeak posted:So how likely is it that there is another election in 12 months? Likely, but we really won't know until we see who will and won't work with who.
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Mar 1, 2016 21:04
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Blut posted:The number of other left options isn't relevant to my point at all - once again, its that anyone of leftish political views not giving LAB even a low preference vote potentially results in an extra FF/FG candidate. Which is wasteful, if they actually want to increase the influence of leftish political views in the Dail. I think the issue here is you are treating STV like FPTP. Not giving Labour a preference does not mean that FG or FF will get the seat. The leftist support will drift to the leftist parties. The issue there is the Labour voter putting FG (or less likely FF) as a preference. With regards to leftism in Ireland, one could argue that the people of the 1916 Rising were trying to build a socialist Ireland. It's a weak argument because it ignores a lot of the different groups who were involved in the Rising, but it is an argument nonetheless. You can also argue that even our right wing parties have been more left wing than similar centre right parties in other counties. Anecdotal, but I have found that despite Canada's touting of being so liberal they actually have eroded a lot of workers rights, the welfare state exists, but is not as strong as Ireland's is also. Of course there is the factors of US osmosis and Harper's 10 years in power but that isn't for this thread. We do seem to be seeing a surging in leftism and it resonates strongly with the population. We will have to see how that will play out with regards to the recovery. If we do find ourselves in a comfortable position it may wash away for the most part and we could settle back into the status quo. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Mar 3, 2016 |
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Mar 3, 2016 02:43
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Bedshaped posted:Labour in coalition did almost nothing for the left. Exactly this. Even if Labour were in power they did piss all. They married themselves to FG and if you were voting for Labour you were voting for them to prop up a FG government. If Labour got more seats who exactly would they prop up in government, Blut? kustomkarkommando posted:Sounds like Pat the Cope Gallagher may be emerging as the front runner for Ceann Comhairle - FG don't seem that interested as it would mean losing a seat, no way Labour is going to throw away a seat as well. SF have nominated Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin and there's talk of Finian McGrath maybe running. Seems odd that FF would sacrifice a seat but if he wants to get Gallagher out of the way it works very well.
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Mar 3, 2016 21:52
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kustomkarkommando posted:Getting someone in the seat to back FFs attempts to fiddle with the standing orders would be a plus for them, and I'm sure the rest of the opposition would prefer someone from the opposition being given the reigns of the Dail rather than another government TD (if FFs plan for the time being is to remain in opposition with a confidence deal as it seems to be) It's a risky move if they go into a supply deal and also go for CC. It could backfire hardcore or they could actually end up taking government next election.
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Mar 3, 2016 22:02
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Blut posted:I'll take your lack of engagement with the above figures as a backing down from your "Not giving Labour a preference does not mean that FG or FF will get the seat." factually incorrect stance so! No, I did not engage because it is still an amazing misunderstanding of STV. You cited five seats of 30 that Labour lost. You also ignore that we have seen an increase in left wing TDs. You also seem to ignore how against SF Labour are and were. They are, were, and seemingly always will be, very against combining forces with other left parties. They will stick to one of the big two and that is that. This will forever mark them in leftist minds as not being true leftists. They are very happy to talk the talk of being leftist but when they get into government they suddenly forget about that and back FG because it we just have to. You seem to be very stuck on the notion that Labour will somehow suddenly become leftist when their track record for years has not proven that. Labour will not save the left in Ireland and the left does not need to support Labour. We have other options.
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Mar 4, 2016 01:23
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forkboy84 posted:You're not a centre-left party just by declaring you are a centre-left party. If you are a party who used to be centre-left but are explicitly involved with a government which pushes through a right wing agenda for very little in return then people who view themselves as on the left on the spectrum are justified in punishing them for that betrayal. How else does a formerly centre-left party know that voters don't appreciate their going from centre-left to centre or centre right? This is exactly what I keep stressing. If Labour actually proved themselves to be centre-left in government then I would vote for them, I'd tell my friends to vote for them. But as it stands they do not want to work with left parties and while they put leftist points in their manifesto, they do not act on them nine times out of ten. Again, I agree that the left vote does split and that is a problem. People are not putting preferences for Labour because of their pure ideology, they are leaving them out because they constantly say leftist things and help implement right wing mandates. kustomkarkommando posted:Anyone who can get the votes becomes Taoiseach. After a Ceann Comhairle (speaker) various nominations will be put forward by the different parties and voted on, whoever gets a simple majority is appointed - there is no special position given to the largest party. The First Inter-Party Government was a wild ride and not something we will ever see again, I don't think. The early days of Irish self-determination where we didn't know what the gently caress to do. I'm actually surprised how little information is being leaked or reported on in the aftermath of the election. Everyone is really waiting for the dust to settle here.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:54
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SocDems, Independents and the Green Party. Everyone else underpreformed. All in all it was a win because Renua didn't get a single seat.
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Mar 4, 2016 21:44
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https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/706241426108112896
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Mar 5, 2016 23:41
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Holy poo poo this is really going to fall to pieces in the next month, isn't it.
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Mar 6, 2016 16:49
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How the hell would that work anyway?
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Mar 6, 2016 18:32
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That sounds completely unworkable.
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Mar 6, 2016 18:45
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Holy poo poo the idea of FF going broke is too good. Call the election now!
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Mar 10, 2016 02:43
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Blut posted:SF votes not transferring to a left-wing candidate, resulting in an FF/FG person being elected? Who could have seen that coming :derp Yes, because FF getting CC hasn't been the favourite since the results came in. Good job. How long do they have to tussle with this before a second election is called?
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Mar 10, 2016 18:24
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Jesus Christ this is going to be a mess.
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Mar 10, 2016 19:08
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Wait so he is stepping down from Taoiseach... to become a caretaker Taoiseach... while still looking to become Taoiseach?
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Mar 10, 2016 19:27
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