Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Conspiratiorist posted:

Russia already had a division-strenght presence in Armenia so the peacekeeping element is no gain.

How is it not a gain for Russia? Azerbaijan is on good terms with Russia (generally speaking) despite Russia being the security guarantor of Armenia, selling weapons to Armenia at cheaper prices than to Azerbaijan and the transparent fuckery the Kremlin gets up to with frozen conflicts in the region. Now Russian troops are stationed in Azerbaijan and if they want to pour more resources into there they can on a whim without any oversight from Azerbaijan "for peacekeeping purposes". There are Turkish forces there but less than 200.

The Kremlin saw the reality on the ground in the region Armenia drifting towards the EU and becoming weaker compared to Azerbaijan. So policy needed to be readjusted.

# ¿ Dec 29, 2021 03:53

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 20:22

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Cugel the Clever posted:

Surprise surprise, Russian belligerence is prompting states that have long maintained an ostensible "neutrality" to reaffirm that they may join NATO should they find it necessary. Highlights just how weak and stupid Putin is to be actively pushing others towards the coalition arrayed against him.

https://twitter.com/TPKanslia/status/1477225405920821248

This is loving huge.

# ¿ Jan 2, 2022 07:02

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

CMYK BLYAT! posted:

ethnic tensions in the region overall are more in the ferghana valley border clusterfuck

The borders in the Ferghana Valley are working exactly as they are intended tyvm!

# ¿ Jan 6, 2022 00:44

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Wow 50 new posts since yesterday! The situation in Kazakhstan must be spiraling out o..... :stare:

# ¿ Jan 8, 2022 02:47

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Cugel the Clever posted:

Putin can absolutely take his ball and go home without excess domestic cost because he ultimately is accountable to only a handful of regime stakeholders over whom he has a great deal of control.

Putin needs some support from the general public. Unfortunately his social contract of improving Russian living standards evaporated years ago and now he has switched to military intervention to get better public approval. He can't pull out of Ukraine because many would turn against him by asking what was it all for? If he escalates he risks more economic hardship for the country further whittling away his public support.

Exiting Ukraine(this includes Crimea) would be the best option although his public image would probably take an irreversible turn from big tough guy to lame old dude. It would be better long term for Russia-Ukraine relations.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 01:32

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Dante80 posted:

For Putin?

Everyone including him. Long term I don't how seeing expanding military operations in Ukraine will help Putin apart from a short term spike in approval.

spacetoaster posted:

Do you think Crimeans want to go back to Ukraine? Also, what do you think Ukraine would do there if they got it back?

Ukraine wants it back. Yeah I know about the "referendum vote" but if you have been around in this thread long enough you would see stuff like this. Russia cannot service the peninsula and this was one of the primary reasons control was transferred to Ukraine. Ukraine stopped the power and literally dammed the canal that provides most of the fresh water there. Russia cannot provide effectively provide services even if they want to. I don't understand why you think Ukraine has to justify getting back its territory when it us Russia that has to justify why it annexed it.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 10:41

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Somaen posted:

For Crimea it's also unserviced by Russian banks and many companies. For a relevant example you can see Northern Cyprus that wants to reunite with the Greeks. Dunno about the current situation in Crimea but the massive repressions of Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians surely doesn't help

You don't have to compare it to Northern Cyprus. It is unserviced by (most) Russian banks and companies because of sanctions. It is a no-brainer for a company to choose between doing business between the EU and Crimea.

# ¿ Jan 20, 2022 11:46

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

spacetoaster posted:

Oh yeah for sure. I'm just not sure what they would actually do if they got it back. Would they launch a humanitarian effort and open the water source? Would they come in and invest in fixing the infrastructure? Can they?

I never said any of that. Re-read my post.

I re-read your post.

spacetoaster posted:

Do you think Crimeans want to go back to Ukraine? Also, what do you think Ukraine would do there if they got it back?

What sort of questions are these? People like to go back to their homes if they were taken away(I believe not too many were displaced in Crimea anyway). Why wouldn't the government of Ukraine service the area? "Oh you guys were invaded? We are not gonna do poo poo for you as punishment". Whether they do a good job is the question to ask.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Renegotiation of INF, as far as I can tell, is happening privately in a parallel flow - those were a major part of Russia-US bilateral talks earlier this month. I think it is the only exception where Russia may agree to separate one of their demands from the others.

Getting rid of short and intermediate range US weapons out of Europe should happen. It only takes 20 mins for an ICBM to travel from 1 side of the earth to the other. Having short range nuclear weapons cuts this time to minutes. Although East European states probably have different ideas.

# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 00:54

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Clevername posted:

Do we have short and intermediate range nukes in Europe again? I thought we removed them all in the 90's, unless you count B61s, but those are literal bombs delivered by fighter-bombers, not decapitation strike weapons.

But Russia isn't demanding that we stop deploying short and intermediate range nukes, not according to anything I have read. Every story just says missiles. You can't have a modern military without short and intermediate range conventional missiles. Yes, some conventional missiles are nuclear capable, but this has never been a serious problem in arms control treaties.

I hosed up. The US has deployed ABM shields in Eastern Europe and in response Russia has discarded the IMF treaty. Both sides have been horrible for nuclear arms control.

Somaen posted:

This thread is good when it's eastern Europeans posting their insights and lived experience, and very bad when it's Americans posting their stupid rear end takes about geopolitics

Too bad EE citizens want the US involved so their opinions sort of matter.

# ¿ Jan 21, 2022 12:22

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

The US can offer an alternative where NATO troops flood into the Baltics and around Kaliningrad, and also open NATO membership up globally. It would be further destabilizing for sure, but if the US wanted to play there's lots that could be done to outshine any potential gains in Ukraine.

How about increase Russian sanctions until Russia joins NATO?

# ¿ Jan 22, 2022 01:40

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Panzeh posted:

Yep, seems reasonable to ask that russia stop occupying foreign territory if they want NATO not to deploy troops in member states.

Maybe we should get and sit down the security council of Russia for a little chat and give them the bad news that Russia isn't that important or a reliable security partner in the 21st century?

# ¿ Jan 27, 2022 13:45

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

MikeC posted:

I am reminded of Robert McNamara saying how he almost got into a fight with the former foreign minister(iirc) of Vietnam over the reasons for the Vietnam war. McNamara was saying how it was another battleground in the Cold War against Communism while the foreign minister stated that it was another war for the Vietnamese people against outside oppressors. I feel like when I read posts like this that you can see the forest but not the trees. Russia does have legitimate security concerns like any other nation state but so do other states like Ukraine. Unfortunately for Russia it is not the center of the Soviet Union anymore and it will have readjust to the new reality on the ground. If a country like Ukraine decides it is in its national interest to do business with a larger, less corrupt and wealthier market it should be able to do so. If a country like Ukraine decides its security could be improved by forming partnerships with countries it hasn't had the choice to join before, then why should an outside power stop it? Russian leadership will have to realise they suck and unless there is a paradigm shift in how they treat countries in their "sphere of influence" they will continue to find that these countries will escape their orbit. This is also happening in central Asia with China.

# ¿ Jan 28, 2022 08:12

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Somaen posted:

Can you stop double posting?

In other news: lmao
https://mobile.twitter.com/AS7404542949/status/1486964256356585475

Can you at least post some context for us mono-lingual morons on an English speaking forum? I mean, I get the gist of it but the twitter comments aren't too helpful.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2022 13:06

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

A Crimean political activist is shown welcoming and promoting the occupation in 2014, and then now bemoaning to the tune of �we gave you Crimea, yet you treat us like dogs�.

Thankyou!

I guessed it was buyer's remorse about Crimea but I couldn't be sure.

# ¿ Jan 29, 2022 13:16

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Alchenar posted:

3) This is the one that everyone above forgot to mention but it's the biggie - sanctions on military and dual-use equipment.

"Dual-use" was a term thrown around a lot in the 90s at Iraq sanctions and look how that turned out. I personally think targeted sanctions is the best solution out of a range of imperfect ones. Unlike countries that have a high turnover of leadership due to elections, Russia has a leadership that changes slowly over time and as Cinci said, Putin will probably make exceptions for oligarchs if they see their wealth become meaningless outside Russia.

# ¿ Jan 30, 2022 00:57

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Somaen posted:

Apologies, I should have posted at least a summary. Please don't take my aggressively anti-american posting persona seriously, your contributions to the thread are appreciated Budzilla. It was originally a tool to run out idiot tankies, but clearly it's now pushing away normal people who are not obsessed with genocide denial.

Your posting persona wasn't what I was taking issue with. It was not posting any summation with the video in an English speaking forum. It is clear what is going on with the Crimean buyer's remorse but a few words of detail would be nice.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Then two weeks later he told me that he has been commandeered to some isolated military base in northern Russia, beyond Ural Mountains. That was the last time I�ve heard from him.

# ¿ Jan 30, 2022 17:54

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

The Winter Olympics are starting up. Maybe it will be like the Sochi games where Russia will use it as a distraction to escalate armed conflict in Ukraine.

# ¿ Feb 4, 2022 13:52

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Oracle posted:

Sounds like it might be time for NATO to have some 'fire exercises' outside of some of Russia's northern ports where they've moved troops and ships from.

Or just give funds and arms to the many separatist groups in the North Caucasus.

Regrettably any sort of preemtive measure against Russia will be used as internal propaganda to bolster military support.

# ¿ Feb 9, 2022 20:36

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1491847068587073538?s=20&t=V1OtAOw0ogYzmRQ5b3mtsw

What does this mean?

I am reading through the twitter thread and his papers that were linked. He is a summation of Russia's position in his 2016 paper. Click the link and read pages 9 through 14. It is too hellish to copy and paste from a PDF document. Basically his thesis is that the lack of Russian domestic reform (economic or otherwise) is making Putin choose specific aggressive foreign policy positions to maintain the status quo at home. None of these positions have long term benefits for Russia either.

# ¿ Feb 11, 2022 10:29

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 20:22

Budzilla: Oct 14, 2007; We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Flavahbeast posted:

There's a very good reason for that: MANPADs proliferating into the black market could be a nightmare in terms of civilian lives lost and PR. You probably can't inflict hundreds of civilian casualties with a single javelin. I'm guessing the stingers are locked down a lot tighter and not dispersed as widely as the javelins, assuming many have arrived at all

Javelins can also be used to attack low flying helicopters in their 'direct attack mode'.

# ¿ Feb 12, 2022 23:41

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Eastern Europe: Olivier's sphere of influence

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