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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


jesus christ I'm Jason Bourne

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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


is that a genre or a video format

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Sinteres posted:

If the only way to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO is to invade it, invading it becomes a rational policy aim, just as countries work to develop nuclear weapons in an attempt to become un-invadable. The US is obviously attempting to counter that by threatening crippling sanctions that will hurt Russia's people more than anything, but it could very easily just say yeah we obviously aren't going to invite Ukraine any time soon, especially since Russia already occupies part of their territory. So yes, Americans are the ones creating the conditions Russia is responding to.

Biden actually did say that just last night:

https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1483916889986420739

Personally I'd be all for a permanent block on Ukraine joining NATO if it meant good faith dealings between Russia and Ukraine, I just think it's very likely they would not - it's not like Ukraine was looking to join NATO in 2014 before the annexation of Crimea and war in Donbass

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Homeless Friend posted:

I just feel like any appeal filled with pathos has to take into account how much death the military spending would alleviate domestically, specifically regarding covid. I dunno how it is overseas but 13,000 is like next week for us, we're very acclimated to this level of dying. Not to mention that an actual war would cause more death than less, no? Very weird appeal is all I'm saying.

A big difference is that covid mostly kills the elderly. If Russia invades Ukraine it will be mostly kids killing each other there



edit: actually I think I misread this post

Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 09:03 on Jan 21, 2022

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001



Olga Chetverikova, leader of the Immune Response movement against vaccination?

really seems more like a crank parroting the talking points of her favorite political party

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Regarde Aduck posted:

Russia has long range conventional missiles of its own. And more of them.

But please, continue to fantasise about why the dirtbag nazi country deserves to hold Russia hostage by placing missiles along its border aimed at them.

Putin's the bad neighbor here. How many Iskanders does he have on his border pointed at Ukraine right now?

and the "dirtbag nazi country" is surprisingly tolerant compared to some in the region

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


FishBulbia posted:

I think this was the same poll that found that like 24% of Russians don't want Chechens as citizens...

I don't think theres anything about Chechens in it, I took it from this poll: https://www.pewforum.org/2017/05/10/religious-belief-and-national-belonging-in-central-and-eastern-europe/

(full PDF: https://www.pewforum.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2017/05/CEUP-FULL-REPORT.pdf )

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Conspiratiorist posted:

Yeah the best course of action for NATO is to arm every man, woman and child with the finest pillows and stahlhelms to fight against Russian ambitions down to the last Ukrainian.

The thing is, Putin's ambitions are not necessarily shared by Russians. The idea of funding a theoretical Ukrainian integration is already unpopular, so if the country is flooded with javelins and nlaws that locals could use to inflict regular losses against ru occupation forces it could alter the calculus against war

and if there is no invasion those javelin caches can be dug up and sold to bolster the Ukrainian economy, big wins all around

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


It was Shoigu himself who announced it, I don't remember if anything ever came of it though

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1473247282946625536

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


That's a weird way to put it. By that logic Ukrainians also lust for Ukrainian blood, and Putin lusts for Russian blood

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Giggle Goose posted:

Meanwhile Jeremy "Kompromat" Corbyn is trying to blame NATO for everything. He's even got Starmer out there writing OP eds about his dumb rear end. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/10/labour-nato-british-left-ukraine-keir-starmer

I'm not British so maybe I'm missing some nuance here but Corbyn definitely doesn't seem to be toeing the Russian line

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1488225112675528708

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Conspiratiorist posted:

The State Duma has scheduled a hearing on recognizing the independence of the DPR and LNR on the 14th.

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1491753164823056384

That would track with the supposed timeline, a recognition of the breakaway territories with a pre-bottled 'provocation' scenario to justify an invasion action on the 16th. Guess we'll see on the 14th if anything actually happens with the Duma

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Sinteres posted:

So if Russia is invading, no matter how evil you think it is, does it change anyone's mind about whether the West/Ukraine should have offered any concessions to try to head it off? Even if you think the moral responsibility lies entirely with Russia, isn't there still value in trying to save lives?

We don't really know what was offered. If a block on Ukraine joining nato would have ended the war then I personally think that's a fine trade, but it's not clear to me that deal was on the table

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Yureina posted:

If I may ask... what do you, the others posters in this thread, think should be the NATO response to this situation?

If anything actually does happen I think the nato countries should be to call Putin an rear end in a top hat and cancel his pipeline. Let Sweden and Finland join if they want to. Give Zelensky whatever aid he requests short of direct military involvement

Defending the skies of Ukraine against the aggressor would be the moral thing to do but I don't think it makes sense logically. Putin's old and whoever comes next will probably be less of a nutter, starting world war 3 over his project isn't worth it. I also think that Russians would overwhelmingly rebel against the idea of occupying Ukrainian cities west of Donbass and putting Ukrainians in camps, as some of the more dire tabloids have predicted

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Cugel the Clever posted:

I've found the nigh exclusive public emphasis on the provision of Javelins to be odd and don't know whether that is just a quirk of the media coverage. Buffing Ukraine's anti-air capabilities is just as important and it looks like some amount of Stingers have been sent, just without the same fanfare.

There's a very good reason for that: MANPADs proliferating into the black market could be a nightmare in terms of civilian lives lost and PR. You probably can't inflict hundreds of civilian casualties with a single javelin. I'm guessing the stingers are locked down a lot tighter and not dispersed as widely as the javelins, assuming many have arrived at all

Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Feb 12, 2022

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Sekenr posted:

Rusdia is not going to attack Ukraine. They love it when everyone is livid and will try to keep it like that permanently. Embassies are evacuating, 4 months from now theyll try to return, russia will shush them away agan. That will kinda ruin Ukraine and the west will get tired of being nervous all the time and say gently caress it you won.

If nothing happens and then theres another buildup like this in six months Im thinking people will be real over it any not even bother evacuating the embassies

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


we don't :shrug:

I doubt anything that's been done so far has changed his plans one way or the other, though

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Regarde Aduck posted:

Not really?

The only ones obfuscated are the media and this thread because you all fell for obvious bullshit. No need to pretend there was a masterplan that got out of control so how could you not be beguiled. People tried to tell you there would be no war and you wouldn't listen.

imo we need to wait a couple weeks before we can safely begin the See? No Invasion triumphalism. Surely it will taste all the sweeter with age

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


El Perkele posted:

But Russia has a good long-term exit: Invade to Dniepr, cut off Kyiv, install a friendly regime (or even outright annexation), and then simply turtle up and wait for West to give up sanctions in 5-10 years. In 30 years' time, it's still a win for Russia if they have Ukraine as their southwestern buffer. It's likely Russia reads West as ultimately unwilling to engage in protracted hostile sanctions rounds against Russia over Ukraine. And what else would there be? World War 3 over Ukrainian steppes?

I don't see it. Even putting aside the military angle, they can't change people's attitudes by force and that would be a massive tract of land to assume responsibility for. Paying to occupy and integrate even half of a country of 44 million while at the same time having destroyed their trade relationships with the rest of Europe would be dire

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


pissinthewind posted:

It just doesn't really make sense to me to be rooting for either side in Ukraine/Russia right now, unless you're mostly worried about which country has the most imperialism I suppose. The rise of fascism is a major problem in the US that no one is doing anything about, but look over here! Nazi grandma is learning to shoot an AK to protect against Putin, everyone cheer? It just seems like Biden is trying to do the unity he promised by promoting nationalist imperialism, stoking the flames of war by sending Ukraine arms and riling up Russia, since domestic patriotism unity kind of poo poo the bed when he failed to accomplish pretty much anything. And honestly, having lived through that poo poo in the early 2000s, I genuinely can't believe grown rear end human beings are falling for it, again.

It does seem weird that people in this thread are talking about eastern europe and not the united states

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Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


OddObserver posted:

The 2008 war which was triggered by Georgia opening fire on Russian troops entering the Georgian region of South Ossetia, and which ended with Russia engaging in ethnic cleansing of Georgians in the region.

Ethnic cleansing? Those people fled on their own, Putin just cleared away the homes they discourteously left cluttering the landscape

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