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golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

V. Illych L. posted:

it's funny how this argument is only ever used when it concerns rich people

if it's not bringing in money, increase the loving thing. squeeze the money out of them like water from a sponge

Nocturtle posted:

Thanks for the replies. I find it increasingly weird that we tolerate the existence of billionaires in our society. 99.99% of people should be on-board with taxing them out of existence, it shouldn't be a fringe opinion.

This actually is a real concern for tax collecting institutions. The IRS created a special team to audit billionaires back at the beginning of the Obama administration. But the targeted billionaires were able to stall things out in court long enough for a republican congress to come into power. A few weeks later, the special audit team found their funding kneecapped. So if you are a billionaire, you can fight the taxman and win. Only death is inevitable for the ultra-wealthy.

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golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos


Well, this is going to be interesting.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Kawabata posted:

Yeah, it's not a full lockdown (yet) but we're getting close. It's pretty surreal to see my country like this.

I really hope other countries in the EU or elsewhere don't have to go through the same things we're going through. If we can't slow the spread of the virus we'll saturate the ICUs in most of northern Italy, which would then mean having to make horrible decisions like restricting access by age. We may not have enough ventilators for everyone in the near future.

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but in Bergamo that already happened yesterday. In some parts of Italy, they're already giving up on severe CoVID-19 patients who are too old. I'd advise you to avoid needing the hospital as much as possible in the future.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Thierry Breton is the EU Internal Market Commissioner
https://twitter.com/ThierryBreton/status/1240353171748331523
https://twitter.com/BBCTech/status/1240701466320310272

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-government-under-fire-after-defective-testing-kits-fiasco/

Remember those lovely tests that the Spanish bought from China. Turns out they had gotten them from a no-name drop-shipper rather than a respectable manufacturer. Even in this time of crises, do not trust random crap off alibaba.


quote:

But excitement turned into despair when it emerged that 58,000 of the kits, which had already arrived in the country, were unreliable, offering only a 30 percent detection rate. The government pulled the entire batch, leading to a host of questions about the process the government followed when it purchased them.

On Wednesday, the Chinese embassy in Madrid tweeted that the manufacturer of the tests, a company called Shenzhen Bioeasy Biotechnology, was not yet licensed by the Chinese agency for medical products.

In a statement Thursday, the Spanish government said it would return the kits to the Chinese manufacturer and stressed that they had not been bought directly from China but from a company in Spain.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Italy has had a positive cyclically adjusted primary balance 2008-2019 (revenue - spending excluding interest payments) for every single year since 1992 according to the IMF!

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGCBP_G01_PGDP_PT@FM/ADVEC/FM_EMG/FM_LIDC/ITA

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

GABA ghoul posted:

It's forced into that austerity by its huge debt/interest payments though, right? Would it behave the same way if it actually had the option of spending again? The Euro stability pact is a huge joke and nobody takes it seriously so you can't really rely on it.

Pretty much. Italy dug a hole for itself during the mid 80s. Most millennials weren't even alive when this debt was made. Thanks to the joy of debts financed in foreign currencies, this means they haven't managed to dig themselves out of that hole, even though they've spent less than they've collected for every year since '92. Of course, everyone knew that before the Euro was established, but no one cared at the time.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

At least the EU Parliament understands that this poo poo is not nearly enough to deal with the crisis. Now if only the European Council would follow suit.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/eu-parliaments-big-four-back-recovery-bonds-to-tackle-covid-19-crisis/

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Squalid posted:

the US Congress is yeeting $2 trillion at the American economy in addition to whatever the Fed is doing. In that context it seems extra surprising to me that the dollar has gained in value against the Pound and Euro since the crisis began, not that I ever actually understand high end macro poo poo.


That's because the demand for currency matters just as much as the supply of currency. The Fed's crazy extreme measures have convinced money that they will save financial markets in a way that no other western central bank would. So all that money is flowing into dollars even faster than the Fed is printing them out. There's also other weird financial things going on in the background. But all those other arcane financial actions also need more dollars, so money is flowing into dollars again from other currencies.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtsch...a-16775908.html

quote:

Germany and France are jointly proposing a European programme worth 500 billion euros for economic recovery after the Corona crisis. The EU is to use funds from its budget to support the sectors and regions most affected, according to a paper published by the German and French governments on Monday. To this end the EU Commission should be allowed to borrow on the financial markets in the name of the EU.

According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), the initiative is intended to ensure cohesion within the EU. "The goal is for Europe to come out of this crisis stronger, more cohesive and in solidarity," she said in Berlin on Monday. Earlier she had exchanged views with French President Emmanuel Macron. As the corona virus has different effects in the European countries, cohesion in the Union is endangered. Merkel therefore called for an "extraordinary, one-time effort", which Germany and France were prepared to make.

After a fierce dispute over community bonds, the corona bonds, the 27 EU states had in April commissioned EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) to work out a model for the reconstruction plan that could be agreed upon. Due to the differences of opinion, she had to postpone the presentation of her proposal several times and now intends to present it on May 27. The Franco-German concept is close to what is known so far about the Leyens Plan.

Germany had long reservations Following the initiative of Merkel and Macron, the EU is to borrow money on the capital market and give it to crisis states as aid within the framework of the multi-year EU financial framework. The Franco-German plan would probably require an increase in the own resources ceiling in the EU budget framework for two to three years. In practice, this would mean further commitments by the EU states to the EU budget. However, these do not fall due immediately as payments; rather, they are used as guarantees to raise money on the capital market and thus drastically increase the EU budget for a limited period.

Germany had long had reservations about disbursing such money borrowed by way of loans as grants to crisis states. This would mean that the European debts would have to be repaid not by the recipient state, but jointly, presumably from the EU budget or its own EU revenues. The German government has obviously moved on this issue.

The agreement of all EU states is necessary to move forward. For its part, France has made concessions and accepted that the funds will be distributed through the EU budget. This common approach means that the usual EU budget rules apply, only projects are financed and not the national budget of individual Member States. The difference with Corona bonds is also that the joint liability for the debt is limited to the extent of the guarantees in the budget.

For a limited period of time, a European fund of 500 billion euros is to be made available to support the states most affected. Such a program would require the unanimous approval of all 27 EU states. In addition, the extension of the budgetary framework would have to be ratified in all EU states, in Germany by the Bundestag. It is questionable whether all EU states can accept the proposal. At the end of last week, the EU Commission said that there was still some convincing to be done.

Something vaguely resembling progress.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1362845431210860548
https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/1360658954095894530

Welp.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Blut posted:

Melenchon had lots of policies that turn off various large sections of the youth vote.

His talk of his "créolisation" policy has made him seem soft on immigration vs Le Pen, Zemmour etc which lost him working class youth support.

Hes also anti EU and anti NATO/somewhat pro-Putin, both of which turn off large numbers of educated/wealthy young people.

As much as we hate to admit it, there are a lot of young Europeans who want leftist policies but with 500% more racism and xenophobia. And leftist policies but with 500% more racism and xenophobia is exactly how many European right wing parties have managed to steal voters from the left wing counterparts in the past decade.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

I don't think it's a difference in people but a difference in leadership. Like there were fears that Trump might have been able to combine leftist economic policies with maximum racism during the early days of his administration, but it quickly became apparent that US chud leaders are completely incapable of doing anything other than try to "own the libs". The European chud leaders are much more able to pretend to offer policy and governance in between the racism and the corruption, but that makes them more dangerous. The European fash leadership can keep the mask on some of the time, and their American counterparts can't.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Blut posted:



This is a pretty great zinger.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/26/world/ukraine-russia-war?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur#eu-russia-ukraine-gas-deal

quote:

Because several E.U. countries — including Poland, Greece and Spain — with more modest consumption and adequate stocks saw a uniform reduction of use as unfair, the plan also spells out other grounds for more modest consumption reductions. For example, countries that have overshot their storage-filling target can compensate by cutting their use less.

So they did eventually sign but only after a clause specifically lowering the requirements for countries that have NOT lived beyond their means energy-wise. Everyone signed after all the extra terms were added, except for the Hungarians. Speaking of which, why is the Putin-loving, near fash Hungarian government still in the EU?

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1559174350858764289

Maybe Europe can avoid the worst blackouts by driving global LNG prices into the stratosphere. Pity the poor developing countries that were relying on LNG imports though.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

It has never made sense to ship LNG halfway across the world in an Australia to Europe route.

Until now.

https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1559552373944889346

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/MattZeitlin/status/1560657874895794183

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-21/germany-to-prioritize-coal-trains-over-passenger-services-welt

quote:

Germany plans to give coal trains priority over passenger services on its rail network as it struggles with an energy crunch that’s threatening the economy, the Welt am Sonntag newspaper reported, citing a draft proposal.

Priority is normally given to passenger transport in Germany, and timetables are geared toward it. As a result there’s a risk of chaos on the rails from making the change, according to the draft.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/europes-natural-gas-crunch-sparks-global-battle-for-tankers-11661150781

quote:

Europe’s energy crisis has unleashed a global battle over natural-gas tankers, leading to a shortage of ships and further boosting the fuel’s record prices.

European countries ramped up their purchases of liquefied natural gas from the U.S., Qatar and other sources this year as Russia cut supplies to the continent. They are competing with peers in South Korea and Japan—where gas demand has surged during a heat wave—for a finite amount of supply ferried by a limited number of vessels.

The jostling has increased orders for new tankers transporting LNG—specialized ships the length of three football fields—as well as their price. Rates to charter existing tankers have jumped too, which has helped push gas prices to records in Europe and Asia.

...

Just one LNG tanker is available to be chartered for a single voyage in Asia two months or more from now, said Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at Poten & Partners, a shipbroker. None is available in the Atlantic Ocean.

“Everything out there is going to be snapped up,” said Toby Copson, head of trading and advisory at Shanghai-based Trident LNG. “Effectively you’ve got Europe and Asia bidding against each other and propping the market up.”
...

Amid the gas rush, daily charter rates for existing tankers that traders will take hold of between mid-September and mid-November have risen to $105,250 a day, up from about $64,000 now and about $47,000 a year ago for vessels heading from the U.S. to Europe, according to Spark Commodities.

Rates were above $100,000 a day in June, before dropping when a fire at an LNG export facility in the U.S. reduced exports and demand for boats. Analysts and traders expect them to rebound because trading companies have booked many more boats on a long-term basis to make sure they can ferry LNG, in turn reducing the pool of vessels immediately available.

To avoid getting caught out in the future, traders are going on a buying spree for ships. Customers have shelled out $24.1 billion on orders for new LNG tankers—including orders for eight vessels in August—so far in 2022, according to Stephen Gordon, managing director at London-based shipping firm Clarkson. They have already blown past the full-year record of $15.6 billion from 2021.

Currently, 257 vessels are on the order book globally, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy. Shipmakers in South Korea, the world’s biggest producer of LNG tankers, don’t have free capacity for new orders until 2027, Rystad estimates.
...

Germany, which had for years been dependent on cheap Russian piped gas, doesn’t have a single LNG terminal. Now, Berlin is planning to have two such FSRUs ready by the end of the year, with several others following next year.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Don't forget it wasn't just the Germans who did dumb poo poo leading to the current power crisis.


https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1562589041677152256
https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1562600350288293889
https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1562729166910287877

Let's just stop maintaining all our nuclear power plants until an emergency occurs. Surely nothing bad will happen and we want to reduce nuclear power usage by half anyway. That's the French way.


https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1562799846758555649

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1587090344436531204

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Celexi posted:

America is not an example for anyone, but that doesn't happen with those same immigrants here, mainly because the ones that make it here from those come through refugee/asylum programs that let them work and not be an outcast, in Europe those same even with legal status would have harder chances to being hired and difficulties accessing any social services as well a lot of racism/xenophobia/etc.
And also, again America is not an example to follow but violent crime has severe consequences here legally, while back in my country Portugal I'd say that its severe as a local to be confined for a quarter of the time that you'd be in America as you'd be away from family, friends, the world, etc. But for someone with no roots there that is not a deterrent and being treated horribly by everyone probably also makes them not care on consequences unless you make them medieval like in America which is the wrong way to go.

Improve people's condition and probably you won't deal with as much violent crime as people are unlikely to be violent if their needs are met.

Also the jus soli citizenship present in almost every country in both Americas is a big advantage for immigrant integration. Making sure every second generation immigrant is a citizen really helps ensure the third generation is fully integrated into society. Whereas in some EU countries, >10% of second generation immigrants still don't have citizenship.

https://www.ft.com/content/62b70a23-ed5b-4cb2-b760-76aa9cc31180

quote:

EU finance ministers have bowed to German pressure for tough debt-reduction rules, as part of a deal to phase in a sweeping overhaul of the union’s budget framework.

Countries with debt ratios above 90 per cent of GDP will be required to cut excess debt by one percentage point per year over the duration of their national spending plan. That target is halved for countries with debt ratios above 60 per cent but below 90 per cent of GDP. There are additional budget targets placed on countries with deficits above 3 per cent and debt-to-GDP ratios above 60 per cent. These require them to aim to cut deficits to 1.5 per cent of GDP with annual curbs to spending. Sanctions are strengthened under the deal, with countries missing spending plan targets falling into a so-called excessive deficit procedure, which would require them to reduce spending by 0.5 per cent of GDP per year.

Germans win again. You will never escape austerity.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Private Speech posted:

Czech Republic is/has been in a very similar position except we didn't enter the euro, I think it's more the fault of neoliberalism and general economic trends of western manufacturing (and the destruction thereof) than anything. Also we devalued our currency and all it did was depress wages for over a decade.

Even US manufacturing has been on a long-term downward slide outside of defence.

For US, Czech, and German manufacturing jobs, the actual low point was 2010. There are more manufacturing jobs in those countries now than there was in 2010. But for most other european countries, manufacturing jobs have been in an endless and seemingly unstoppable decline.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAMNTTUSA647S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAMNTTCZQ647S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAMNTTDEQ647S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAMNTTFIA647S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAMNTTFRA647S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFEAMNTTGBQ647S

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Owling Howl posted:

The Euro reduces the cost of debt which is good and it eliminates currency exchange costs which is also good. No, you can't take on a lot of debt. This is obvious and it is obvious that regional politicians would do it anyway if not legally prevented from doing it. To balance that EU wealth transfers ought to be much higher.

You don't actually need debt limit laws to prevent that, you just need a more coherent system. After all, not every US state has a debt limit law in either state law or the state constitution. And there are plenty of cities and other smaller units that don't have debt limit laws. The key is that investors did not delude themselves into thinking that county and city debt are the same as state/region/province debt, and assume the state/region/province will always pay out the county/city's obligations in full. Likewise, investors understand that while the federal government won't let any state/region/province implode, that doesn't mean they will cover all of their bad debt. For states it is a very rare occurrence, but it has happened in the past, in the 1933 Arkansas default. For cities and counties, it happens just often enough that capitalists right reports on how often US municipalities default on their debt, like this one from Fidelity (https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fixed-income/moodys-investors-service-data-report-us-municipal-bond.pdf).

But during the 90s and 00s, everyone deluded themselves into thinking any national debt in the EU is exactly the same as EU debt. That's was always a delusion.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/eu-parliament-wants-commission-in-court-hungary-stripped-of-voting-rights/

quote:

Most political groups in the European Parliament want a probe into the European Commission’s decision to unfreeze EU funds for Hungary, followed by a lawsuit in the EU’s top court and a possible motion of censure, while also urging the Council to strip Hungary’s voting rights over its rule of law deficiencies.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

If Germany fails to contain their far right, those folk are working on Dexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/22/germany-far-right-afd-leader-alice-weidel-eu-exit-campaign

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1750532543085150542
https://twitter.com/tusionni/status/1750551018725593427
https://twitter.com/Fiftyset80_Toad/status/1750572205640159557

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1751855979665268770
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1751937666726154278

Is Orban finally going find out that his miserable, lovely actions have consequences, or is the EU going to back down yet again again?

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://www.ft.com/content/02e6cca7-6cdd-44e3-9d1e-71ea9883f4b2

quote:

The French government has pledged to cut another €10bn out of this year’s budget as weaker economic growth makes its earlier fiscal plans untenable.

With much of Europe stuck in a period of sluggish growth, the French economy is expected to expand only 1 per cent this year, according to revised government forecasts released on Monday, down from the 1.4 per cent that had been the basis for the 2024 budget. “Lower growth means lower tax receipts, so the government must spend less,” finance minister Bruno Le Maire said in a news conference announcing the new measures.

The 2024 budget already included roughly €16bn in cuts, mostly from phasing out energy subsidies, but the additional cuts are needed to meet a commitment to reduce the budget deficit to 4.4 per cent this year. Le Maire promised there would be no tax increases to plug the hole, casting it as a consistent policy choice that President Emmanuel Macron’s government has stuck to since 2017. “We have cut taxes and won’t deviate from this line. French people can’t bear any more tax,” he said. The moves come as France is under pressure from credit rating agencies and national finance and audit watchdogs to defend its deficit-cutting plan, which is slower than most other EU countries.

Brussels has recently struck a deal on reimposing revised fiscal rules that were suspended because of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Analysts expect France to be the least likely of the four biggest eurozone economies to meet the bloc’s new annual targets for cutting public debt and limiting public spending.

Half of the €10bn cuts will come from government ministries, such as spending less on hiring, procurement, travel and offices, while the rest will come from scaling back programs including subsidies for home renovations to reduce carbon emissions and international aid. Spending on healthcare and local governments will be protected from the cuts, said Le Maire.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

suck my woke dick posted:

eh he's not that bad

also

How about we don't reintroduce a backwards martial culture and instead unfuck procurement and budgeting so our precious tax euros actually buy a credible deterrent force that can deploy half an hour's drive away from the barracks without breaking down on the side of the Autobahn

This. You must remember that France and Germany spend roughly the same amount on their military. But France manages to buy multiple functioning armored brigades, their own set of purely French stupid neocolonialist invasion adventures peacekeeping operations, and nuclear powered aircraft carrier. And Germany manages to buy much less on the same budget.

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golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

https://twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1775154472605368812
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-axes-its-defence-chief-failure-report-weapons-system-malfunction-2024-04-03/

quote:

COPENHAGEN, April 3 (Reuters) - Denmark on Wednesday fired its chief of defence Flemming Lenfter, after he had failed to report about malfunctioning weapon systems during an attack last month on a Danish frigate deployed to the Red Sea. Local defence media Olfi on Tuesday cited a confidential report by the captain as saying the frigate's radar and missile systems had failed during a drone attack by Houthi militants on March 9, putting the crew of 175 at risk.

Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told a press briefing he had not been informed in detail about the incident. "I have not been aware of the report given by the captain," Poulsen said, declining to elaborate.
"I no longer have trust in the chief of defence, Flemming Lentfer," he added.

The frigate Iver Huitfeldt, which was deployed to the Red Sea as part of the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian to help safeguard commercial sea traffic, eventually shot down four drones during the March 9 attack without any harm to the ship or crew.

Lentfer, who was appointed in October 2020, will be replaced on an interim basis by Michael Wiggers Hyldgaard, the minister said.

Wondering more and more if anyone outside the US has working anti-missile and anti-drone systems on their boats instead of fancy cardboard.

EDIT: Google translate from the more detailed article

quote:

30 year old shells
Other problems came to light when the cannon was deployed. The Iver Huitfeldt has two Oto Melara 76mm cannons on the forecastle (the same cannon as the Dutch M-frigates and patrol ships). No doubt to the horror of the crew, half of the shells exploded right after leaving the barrel. “Without having any effect on enemy targets,” the message states.

"All grenades in standard combat equipment are more than 30 years old, they have been retrofitted with a '2005 proximity fuze' [detonator that should detonate the shell close to the target], which appears to be unsuitable for actual combat" , the commander wrote.

golden bubble fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Apr 3, 2024

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