EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

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LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

What the gently caress Belgium, entry #34534587 in a never-ending series: http://www.lalibre.be/economie/actualite/toute-la-belgique-va-recevoir-de-l-iode-57211c1735702a22d6d187ad

quote:

Ce ne sont plus seulement les proches habitants des centrales nucl�aires qui recevront des pilules d�iode � titre pr�ventif, mais bien toute la population vivant sur le territoire belge. C�est ce que la ministre f�d�rale de la Sant� publique, Maggie De Block (Open VLD), a expliqu� au Parlement ce mercredi (en commission Sant� publique de la Chambre). Pour rappel, ces pastilles d�iode permettent de prot�ger la thyro�de face � la radioactivit�.
Le gouvernement f�d�ral s�est donc rang� finalement derri�re l�avis du Conseil sup�rieur de la sant� (entre autres), qui conseillait de pr�voir des distributions d�iode � la population � titre pr�ventif (donc sans attendre, �videmment, un incident ou un accident nucl�aire�) dans un rayon de 100 km autour des centrales et non dans un rayon de quelques kilom�tres � peine (20 km) comme c�est le cas actuellement.

Everyone living in the country is to be issued with iodine pills because of concerns about the state of the country's nuclear reactor fleet.

# ¿ Apr 28, 2016 13:20

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 00:03

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Paul Mason wants Austria's EU membership suspended if the far-right candidate wins the presidency: http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...country-from-eu

quote:

On 22 May, Austria faces a presidential run-off, where the choice is between the leader of the far-right Freedom party and a Green standing as an independent. In the first round, the combined votes of the two main parties that govern Austria � the socialists and the conservatives � would still have had them running third. The far-right won in every region except Vienna, and, even then, won half of the Austrian capital�s sub-districts.

The swing happened despite the centrist coalition government putting razor wire on Austria�s border with Hungary, deporting thousands of refugees and demonstratively excluding Greece from the summit that effectively closed the Balkan route. Police in Austria report a 60% year-on-year rise in racist incidents, while those who monitor racism online report numerous instances of Nazi-glorification linked to anti-migrant hate speech.

Take a 60-minute drive from Vienna to Bratislava, the capital of neighbouring Slovakia, and you�ll find in the parliament 14 MPs from an outright fascist party and another 15 from a cleaned-up rightwing nationalist grouping. The socialist prime minister, Robert Fico, had fought the March election on a platform of accepting �not one Muslim� refugee and defying the EU quota system, and has now taken the rightwing nationalists into a coalition government. Two hours away is Budapest, where the rightwing nationalist prime minister, Victor Orb�n, is under challenge from the far-right Jobbik party. Jobbik once had a jackbooted militia but is now, too, trying to clean up its fascist image. An opinion poll last year found 24% of Hungarians willing to express open antisemitic views, with the figure rising to 49% in the capital.

Go north to Poland and the rightwing conservative Law and Justice party is busy altering the constitution to suppress judicial oversight of the government and stifle the press. Of course, the emergence of rightwing conservative parties that oppose migration and want to break up the EU is not confined to eastern Europe. We�ve got Ukip here and Marine Le Pen�s Front National, which is currently hovering just under 30% in the run-up to next year�s presidential election and would come first in two out of three likely scenarios next April.

But the combined rise of authoritarian nationalism, outright fascism and anti-minority racism in the east of Europe should alarm us more. First, because it�s happening in immature democracies, where the media is oligarchic and under state manipulation, graft is endemic and levels of democratic consciousness and traditions are low. When a far-right politician in eastern Europe wants to make the kind of transition Le Pen has made for the FN � from squadism to Chanel suits � it does not have to travel so far. Second, because it is not being driven by the normal driver of extremism � economic failure. GDP per head in Slovakia, for example, rose sharply after EU membership in 2004. And while unemployment there remains high, at 10%, it�s fallen by a third in the past three years. This is, instead, an existential swing away from centrism in eastern Europe � based on anxieties about traditional lifestyles, above all in response to the refugee crisis. Third, the rise of the far-right in eastern Europe is part of a geopolitical game. A report for the Martens Centre last year pointed out, despite the differences between the patchwork fascisms of the region, �their astonishingly similar stance towards Putin�s Russia�.

The European far-right not only shares Putin�s goal � the breakup of Nato and the EU � but sees his authoritarian, socially conservative nationalism as a model for how their own countries should be run. While the far-right in Europe is not simply a creation of the Kremlin, the concrete ties are manifest: regular appearances on the Russian media, regular visits, invitations to monitor elections in Russia and its allied states, and then money, with Marine Le Pen�s �9m (�7m) loan from a Russian bank the best known example.

Faced with these developments, the EU and its centrist governments seem paralysed. Article 7 of the EU Treaty allows a country to be sanctioned or suspended if it commits a severe breach of fundamental rights. But it needs two-thirds majority in the parliament and has never been invoked. This month it must draw the line in Austria. Europe must make clear it will refuse to recognise a far-right president in Vienna. It�s their democratic right to elect a cleaned-up fascist; it�s ours � by treaty � to suspend Austria from the EU.

We know the EU can act ruthlessly against a government it does not like � because we watched it try to smash the most anti-racist, pro-social justice government ever elected, in Greece last summer. Today the countries that stood alongside Germany in its attempt to boot Greece out of the euro are the same ones who refuse to take refugees, whose media and judiciaries are under threat. As Europe dithers in the face of the authoritarians and racists, the populations in the mature democracies that founded the EU should insist: our grandparents didn�t defeat fascism in 1945 to see it weasel back into the mainstream now, dressed in suits instead of uniforms, but trailing the same pathetic victimhood that excused the crimes of the past.

Has a good summary of the rise of the populist/anti-immigration right across Europe, although it wouldn't be a Mason piece without at least a few inaccuracies and bits of silliness - afaik the Polish Law & Justice party are very keen on NATO rather than wanting to see it dismantled, and the invocation of Greece is completely spurious. Also, the central claim - that electing an arsehole could be defined as a severe breach of fundamental rights meriting suspensions of membership - is patently absurd. Still, interesting.

# ¿ May 3, 2016 09:22

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Friendly Humour posted:

The invocation of Greece isn't spurious, it's an example of how the EU can absolutely destroy a country if it doesn't like its elected government. The irony here is that while the EU leadership is vehemently hostile to all left-wing governments, it does nothing against the far-right ones. Not a word, not a sanction.

The eurogroup/ECB were able to act effectively against Greece because Greece owes the EU a lot of money and its public finances are in a dire state. Neither is true for Austria. On top of that, the EU didn't take any action simply because Syriza was elected, it acted in response to actions that Syriza took once in power. Mason is calling for action against Austria without regard to the president's actions.

# ¿ May 3, 2016 13:51

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

GaussianCopula posted:

The ECB never acted against Greece or any other Southern country. Their policy of cheap money is the one thing that prevents them all from going tits up and the Greek banking system was allowed to live because Draghi extended ELA credit far beyond what was reasonable.

Well, if you object to the phrase "acted against", mentally replace that part with "the EU had leverage over the Greek government because Greece owes the EU a lot of money. Austria doesn't."

# ¿ May 3, 2016 14:09

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://next.ft.com/content/e90a080e-107b-11e6-91da-096d89bd2173?siteedition=uk#axzz47c1CQziH

quote:

Germany is to push for progress towards a European army by advocating a joint headquarters and shared military assets, according to defence plans that could ricochet into Britain�s EU referendum campaign.
Although Berlin has long paid lip-service to forming a �European defence union�, the white paper is one of the most significant for Germany in recent years and may be seized by anti-integration Brexit campaigners as a sign where the bloc is heading.
Initially scheduled to emerge shortly before the June 23 referendum vote but now probably delayed to July, the draft paper seen by the Financial Times outlines steps to gradually co-ordinate Europe�s patchwork of national militaries and embark on permanent co-operation under common structures.
In this and other areas, its tone reflects Germany�s growing clout and confidence in pursuing a foreign policy backed by elements of hard power. Initiatives range from strengthening cyberwarfare abilities to contentious proposals to relax the postwar restrictions on army operations within Germany.
�German security policy has relevance � also far beyond our country,� the paper states. �Germany is willing to join early, decisively and substantially as a driving force in international debates � to take responsibility and assume leadership�.

# ¿ May 4, 2016 07:35

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

The chancellor of Austria has resigned after his party crashed and burned horribly in the presidential elections, and people in his party are calling for closer cooperation with the populist/anti-immigrant FP�: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/09/werner-faymann-quits-as-austrian-chancellor

quote:

The Austrian chancellor, Werner Faymann, has resigned two weeks after his Social Democratic party (SP�) suffered a disastrous result in a presidential election.
Faymann, chancellor since 2008, had been under pressure from some in his party over his tough asylum policy and from others for wanting to keep a ban on forming coalitions with the anti-immigration Freedom party (FP�), whose candidate won the first round of the presidential vote last month on an anti-Islam and Eurosceptic platform.
In a statement issued after a party meeting, Faymann announced his resignation both as chancellor and head of the SP�. �This country needs a chancellor who has the party�s full support,� he said.
Austria has been braced for political turmoil since rightwing populist Norbert Hofer won a landslide victory for the FP� in the first round of the country�s presidential elections.
Hofer defied pollsters� predictions to beat the Green party�s Alexander Van der Bellen into second place, gaining 36% of the vote. The two candidates will go head to head in a runoff ballot on 22 May.
...
The minister for the chancellory, Josef Ostermayer, suggested on Saturday the party could cooperate with the FP� on the provincial and municipal level � where much of the political power is held in federalised Austria � but keep separate at the national level.

# ¿ May 9, 2016 14:27

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

A man has stabbed a bunch of people near Munich and killed at least one while shouting "Allahu ackbar": http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/messerattacke-107.html

quote:

Ein Mann hat am S-Bahnhof Grafing bei M�nchen mehrere Passanten mit einem Messer angegriffen. Vier Menschen wurden verletzt, der T�ter wurde �berw�ltigt. Derzeit pr�ft die Polizei Zeugenaussagen, denen zufolge der Mann w�hrend des Angriffs "Allahu Akbar" gerufen haben soll.
Am S-Bahnhof Grafing bei M�nchen hat ein Mann am fr�hen Morgen mehrere Menschen mit einem Messer angegriffen und teils schwer verletzt. Der Mann wurde von der Polizei �berw�ltigt und festgenommen. Vier M�nner sollen ersten Informationen zufolge verletzt sein, einer davon lebensgef�hrlich.

# ¿ May 10, 2016 08:17

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Can't get labour reform laws through parliament? gently caress it, just ram 'em through via presidential decree!
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-protests-labour-idUSKCN0Y11Q6

quote:

Unable to put down a rebellion within their own ruling party, French President Francois Hollande and his Socialist government on Tuesday opted to force unpopular labor market reforms through the lower house of parliament without a vote.
Prime Minister Manuel Valls announced the move after the collapse of talks with rebel Socialist lawmakers over the bill, which seeks to make hiring and firing easier. It follows weeks of trade union and student-led street protests.
"It is my duty to move forward and make sure this text is adopted," Valls told parliament after an emergency cabinet meeting.
"I won't apologize for this: this bill is good for businesses and it is good for workers," he said, as opponents of the bill booed and fellow ministers applauded in support.

The decision to invoke special constitutional powers underlines the deep rifts running through the ruling Socialist Party a year ahead of presidential elections and Hollande's own weakness ahead of declaring whether he will run for re-election.
"It's a heavy-handed way of using the constitution to prevent the nation's representatives from having their say," Laurent Baumel, a rebel Socialist lawmaker told reporters, calling the decision "anti-democratic".
Hollande's move not to compromise with his own legislators sends a signal to international investors and ratings agencies, who have for years pressed for more pro-market reforms in the euro zone's second largest economy.
But it also exposes France's most unpopular leader in recent memory to a vote of confidence, quickly called by opposition conservatives.
A no confidence vote by lawmakers in the lower chamber on Thursday would dissolve Valls' government. However, despite the divide within the party, the government is expected to survive.
Lawmakers to the left of the Socialist Party said they would try to gather enough signatures to put forward their own no-confidence motion.

The option to push legislation through by decree is made possible by a rarely used clause in France's constitution - known as 49.3 - which underlines the strong powers wielded by the executive under France's presidential system.
It is the second time in as many years Hollande and Valls have used the clause, having last year rammed a law through parliament which loosened up Sunday trading rules and regulations in the transport and legal sectors.
France has some of the most protective labor regulations in the euro zone. The government says the proposed legislation will encourage companies to hire and bring down a jobless rate that is stuck above 10 percent.
Although Valls diluted parts of the labor bill in March, the bill retains measures giving more flexibility to employers to agree in-house deals with employees on working time.
It also offers companies less restrictive conditions for layoffs made for economic reasons.

Hollande has said he will only run for a second term if he succeeds in creating jobs. Government opponents said Hollande's time was up.
"We are witnessing the slow but certain demise of the government," conservative lawmaker Eric Ciotti told reporters.

# ¿ May 11, 2016 00:24

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Whaaaaaat. The CSU is contemplating a split with the CDU over immigration, Islam, and differences concerning the handling of AfD: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-conservatives-divided-by-right-wing-afd-a-1091491.html

quote:

The rise of the right-wing populist AfD has driven a wedge between Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party. The CSU is now threatening to go it alone, with officials saying they may campaign against the chancellor in the 2017 election.
...
AfD has attracted voters away from many parties in Germany, but the debate as to how to respond to the new threat has been most embittered among conservatives. The Bavarian CSU sees AfD's rise as a consequence of Merkel's leadership, particularly her long-standing efforts to push the CDU to the center of the political spectrum and her stance on the refugee crisis. The CSU believes the latter is to blame for attracting hundreds of thousands of migrants to Germany who would not otherwise have made the dangerous journey.
At a meeting of CSU leaders in Munich last Monday, it became clear just how deep the discord over the chancellor's refugee policies remains. CSU head Horst Seehofer held up a graphic showing the development of refugee flows into Germany. After Sept. 5, 2015, when the chancellor opened German borders to those migrants stranded in Hungary, the numbers spiked, said Seehofer. He then pointed to another point on the graphic: the day when Macedonia decided to close its border. From that point, the CSU leader said, the numbers of refugees plunged.
On one hand, his presentation was an effort to prove that his interpretation of events was the correct one. Merkel continues to stubbornly claim that her Hungary decision and the infamous selfies she took with refugees played no role in attracting migrants to Germany. She says they were on their way to Europe anyway. But Seehofer is also trying to get the chancellor to change her entire approach. The lesson of AfD's rise, says senior CSU member and German Transportation Minister Alexander Dobrindt, is that German conservatives, particularly the CDU, should hew more closely to the CSU line.
...
On Sunday, the party went even further. Speaking on German public broadcaster ZDF, Bavarian Finance Minister Marcus S�der said that divisions between the CDU and the CSU were deeper today than they have been in decades. He too went on to lay the blame for the success of the AfD at the feet of Merkel. "It is obvious that, with the shift to the left undertaken by the CDU, room to the right has been created," he said.
Back in March, at a meeting of the CSU strategy commission preparing for the 2017 general election in Germany, Seehofer presented the main outlines of his party's new approach to the CDU. The CSU head sees AfD as a party catering to those in Germany who feel disadvantaged. As such, he wants to ensure that pensions for low-income earners remain stable, even if it costs the state billions to do so. He also wants to campaign against European Central Bank head Mario Draghi and his insistence on keeping interest rates low.
Should the CDU not follow his lead, the CSU might have to run its own campaign ahead of the 2017 election, Seehofer said. He himself would then become the party's lead candidate in the election, CSU party sources say.

# ¿ May 12, 2016 08:50

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

GaussianCopula posted:

Well, amicably splitting and thereby getting a larger share of votes while still closely collaborating seems like a very smart play, at least in theory.

The idea that any such split would or could be amicable seems... deeply implausible, to say the least. You're talking about the fracturing of a decades-old alliance over a core policy issue. That's not something that lends itself to friendliness.

# ¿ May 12, 2016 11:50

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

The Commission is threatening to suspend Poland's voting rights for "failing to uphold the rule of law": https://next.ft.com/content/1fb0e9c4-1d04-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122

quote:

Poland faces the prospect of becoming the first EU country to be sanctioned for failing to uphold the rule of law after Brussels issued Warsaw with another warning over its constitutional overhaul.
On Wednesday, the European Commission gave Poland five days to demonstrate �significant progress� in addressing Brussels� concerns over controversial changes to the country�s constitutional court and its state media.
If Warsaw fails to comply, the commission can issue a �Rule of Law Opinion�, which paves the way for more serious sanctions, such as stripping Poland of its right to vote on EU laws. This last option, available under Article 7 of the EU�s treaty, has been nicknamed �the nuclear option� by diplomats. The option has never been used before.
Although negotiations continue, Konrad Szymanski, Poland�s European affairs minister, dismissed hopes of a deal before the deadline on Monday and called for more time. �It is hard to expect a breakthrough,� he said. �To execute this plan, we need more time.�
The long-simmering row follows the election of Poland�s rightwing Law and Justice party with a surprise majority last autumn. Brussels and Warsaw sparred openly in January when commission officials attacked the Polish government�s reforms.
...
Brussels is most concerned with the reforms of Poland�s highest court, which critics say undermined the checks and balances of the country�s constitution.
The commission has also been sharply critical of a decision by the Polish government to sack the managing boards of Poland�s state-run television and radio channels.
But hopes of a domestic solution to the crisis through talks between Poland�s government and its opposition parties are slim, according to diplomats. �The level of probability of this happening [is something] I would compare to the return of Crimea to Ukraine,� said one.

# ¿ May 18, 2016 17:31

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

ReagaNOMNOMicks posted:

Poland doesn't want to lose to Britain in the who-gets-the-gently caress-out-first race.

This is the current state of play in the British referendum:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/732988347870793728

The Poles may win.

# ¿ May 18, 2016 18:44

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Austrian presidential election today! Are you excited to see if the... ahem... "right wing populist" wins?

# ¿ May 22, 2016 09:30

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/734412148261195780

# ¿ May 22, 2016 16:58

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

99.8% counted in Austria and it's still 50-50. The Green/Independent candidate Van der Bellen won Vienna by 66%-33%; the populist right-wing candidate Hofer won everywhere else other than Vorarlberg.

# ¿ May 22, 2016 17:52

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

V. Illych L. posted:

if it's that close i'd expect van der bellen to win. cities almost always report their results more slowly than rural areas

also graz and salzburg also broke for the green, from what i've seen so it's not exclusively a vienna thing - it seems to be a fairly strong urban/rural separation

Yeah, but Graz and Salzburg aren't states unto themselves like Vienna is. At the state level, Van der Bellen won Vienna and Vorarlberg, and Hofer won everything else.

# ¿ May 22, 2016 18:13

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

The final Austrian result including postal votes is Van der Bellen 52%, Hofer 48%: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

# ¿ May 22, 2016 20:04

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

SirViver posted:

This is not the final result. It is either the current interim result of postal votes only (not including normal votes, the label on top is clearly wrong) - which would mean it'd look rather dire for VdB to still win overall - or it is completely made up test data. Keep in mind that this page is not public yet and only reachable if you type in the URL directly.

Oh, sorry, my bad - that's what I get for trusting european political twitter I guess.

# ¿ May 22, 2016 21:24

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

No official confirmation yet, but several sources are reporting that Van der Bellen won.

# ¿ May 23, 2016 15:01

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/734750000144601090

0.4% of the voting electorate between the candidates.

# ¿ May 23, 2016 15:19

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

YF-23 posted:

When the alternative is "barely below", yeah, it is pretty great. Austrian politics are going to be Fun from this point onward.

Yeah, it's entirely possible that staving off the rise of Bundespraesident Hofer today means we can look forward to the inauguration of Bundeskanzler Hofer in 2018.

# ¿ May 23, 2016 15:37

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Hungarian_democracy.wtf
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/735512945216606208
That's Orban's "illiberal democrats" in first place with 41% of the vote and the literal-fascist-party-with-uniformed-paramilitaries in second place with 27%.

# ¿ May 25, 2016 17:52

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Tesseraction posted:

Interesting that Europe Elects is tweeting from Israel.

Why is that any more or less interesting than them tweeting from any other part of the world?

# ¿ May 25, 2016 19:33

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/736228953329917953
#justbrexitthangs

# ¿ May 27, 2016 21:12

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://next.ft.com/content/4d3475ca-2734-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89

quote:

Support for Angela Merkel�s ruling conservative bloc and her Social Democrat coalition partners has dropped below 50 per cent for the first time since the rebirth of German democracy after the second world war.
An opinion poll published on Tuesday in Bild newspaper shows the two groupings are losing support following the rise of the rightwing anti-immigration Alternative for Germany party and a recovery in the liberal FDP.
With the Greens and the Left party holding their own, the survey by the Insa agency confirms the political landscape is fragmenting ahead of next year�s parliamentary elections. The risks are increasing that a future government might need three coalition partners instead of two, which have run virtually every administration since the war.
Support for Chancellor Merkel�s CDU/CSU bloc dropped to 30 per cent from 41 per cent in the 2013 election, while the SPD�s backing plunged to 19 per cent from 26 per cent, said Insa.
The AfD, which has profited from the refugee crisis, was on 15 per cent in spite of recent intraparty squabbles. The FDP, a traditional mainstay of the political establishment that lost its Bundestag seats in 2013, secured 8 per cent, enough to return to parliament. The Greens were on 13 per cent and the Left 9.5 per cent.
The latest decline is largely caused by public anger over the influx of refugees. As late as last spring, just before the summer surge in migrants, Insa put support for Ms Merkel�s coalition parties at 66 per cent.
However, the combined backing for the CDU/CSU and SPD has been in decline since the late 1970s, when they commanded more than 90 per cent of the vote. Uwe Jun, politics professor at Trier University, said: �Society has become more differentiated and the two big �people�s parties� can no longer bring together the different social streams.�

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.

The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Berlin to be born?

# ¿ May 31, 2016 22:19

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shak...d-pm/#section-5

quote:

According to a new Ipsos poll for Le Monde, French President Fran�ois Hollande would win only 14% of the vote in the first round of the 2017 presidential election � meaning that he would not make it to the second round. The poll shows that, if former French President Nicolas Sarkozy were the centre-right candidate, Front National leader Marine Le Pen would win the first round with 28% of the vote � followed by Sarkozy on 21% and Hollande on 14%. If former Foreign Minister Alain Jupp� were the centre-right candidate, he would win the first round with 35% of the vote � followed by Le Pen on 28% and Hollande on 14%.

poor ol' francois just can't catch a break

# ¿ Jun 2, 2016 11:27

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Dawncloack posted:

No one in my FB slapfights has been able to explain to me what "Tax justice" means for instance.

The EU actually deserves a lot of credit on this score - it's probably done more than any other single nation or international organization to combat tax avoidance by multinationals. Vestager has been going pretty aggressively after Apple, Fiat, Starbucks, and several others.

# ¿ Jun 11, 2016 11:24

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

I particularly like the results for Poland and Hungary.

# ¿ Jun 15, 2016 11:20

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

forkboy84 posted:

Please never say Scexit ever again. Oh my word that is horrifying.

The campaign can take this as its theme tune.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjVT0MhSNeo

Riso posted:

Paper wealth in the stock markets is not real wealth. Investors can go gently caress themselves.

Anybody who owns pounds or gets paid in pounds has been materially hurt by this vote.

# ¿ Jun 24, 2016 13:25

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

It's received comparatively little attention due to certain other events, but Italy's banking system is kind of on fire and Renzi's telling the Commission to go gently caress itself and its banking union: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e3b53640-4108-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1.html#axzz4DLBF39tg

quote:

Italy is prepared to defy the EU and unilaterally pump billions of euros into its troubled banking system if it comes under severe systemic distress, a last-resort move that would smash through the bloc�s nascent regime for handling ailing banks.
Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, is determined to intervene with public funds if necessary despite warnings from Brussels and Berlin over the need to respect rules that make creditors rather than taxpayers fund bank rescues, according to several officials and bankers familiar with their plans.
The threat has raised alarm among Europe�s regulators, who fear such a brazen intervention would devastate the credibility of the union�s newly implemented banking rule book during its first real test. In the race to find workable solutions, Margrethe Vestager, the EU�s competition chief, has laid out options for Rome to address its banking problems without breaking the bail-in principles of Europe�s banking union.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-exposes-eurozones-weak-spot-italys-banks-1467567131

quote:

Brexit has made what was already a serious Italian banking crisis worse. Italian banks are sitting on a combined �360 billion ($401 billion) of bad debts, equivalent to about a quarter of gross domestic product. This includes �200 billion of loans to borrowers now judged insolvent, which banks have on average written down to 45% of their nominal value but which the market appears to value at closer to 20% of their nominal value, which implies the system is short of around �40 billion of capital.
Now thanks to Brexit, the market fears that hole may be even larger. Lower Italian growth forecasts point to higher loan losses while falling government bond yields increases pressure on bank margins. Shares in many Italian banks slumped by more than 30% after the Brexit vote and some now trade on multiples of as little as 0.1 times net book value, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, raising doubts about their ability to raise capital from the market.

Under new EU rules that came into force in January, no public money can be used to support failed banks until private-sector creditors accounting for 8% of the bank�s liabilities have been bailed in. A bank-backed private-sector fund, Atlante, recently established to facilitate bank rescues, has already been forced to use half its capital to buy shares in two lenders after their attempts to raise equity from the markets attracted zero interest.
If Italy is forced to stick to the rules, it could face multiple bank failures, which could mean heavy losses for many ordinary retail savers, who own up to �250 billion of bank bonds. When the Bank of Italy imposed losses on �750 million of junior debt as part of the rescue of four small lenders in December, it prompted a furious political backlash. A similar backlash now could make it all but impossible for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to win a referendum promised for later this year on the constitutional overhauls that have been the centerpiece of his administration. If he loses, he has vowed to quit.

# ¿ Jul 4, 2016 07:57

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

awesome-express posted:

Jesus just allow fiscal transfers already

As I understand it, fiscal transfers wouldn't actually help here - the Italian government could swing a bailout with its own resources if it needed to. The problem is that the rules of the European banking union dictate that failing banks cannot be propped up with taxpayers' money unless investors and depositors are bailed in first, which means that the banks' bondholders and retail investors (read: Joe Schmo and his current account) would be the first to lose out.

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Jul 4, 2016

# ¿ Jul 4, 2016 09:04

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

On a vaguely related note, here's a good article on Renzi's woes and the problems of the Italian banking system: http://www.politico.eu/article/europes-and-matteo-renzis-italian-problem/

quote:

Time is not Renzi�s friend. By July 29, EU banking regulators are widely expected to say that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), the world�s oldest bank, will need an emergency infusion of capital. That decision will sound the starting gun on a rescue package not just for MPS but for the entire Italian banking sector.
Renzi�s immediate dilemma is clear: He must convince Brussels and skeptical member countries, led by Germany, to let Italy inject money into a banking sector in dire need of repair.
But he needs to do so without triggering EU rules that would penalize retail investors, many of them individual savers who may not have realized that the bonds they were buying were at risk of suddenly becoming worthless.
Wiping out the thousands of households that bought bonds in Italy�s banks would be tantamount to political suicide in the country�s charged social climate.

It�s a very tight needle to thread for a man who styles himself as il rottamatore � the demolition man � of Italian politics. And righting a banking sector saddled by more than �360 billion in bad loans and decades of mismanagement is not even the biggest of Renzi�s challenges. In the fall, Italians will go to the polls in a referendum on constitutional reform that could provide Italy with its own �Brexit moment.�
If the new regime is voted down, Renzi has pledged to go � as David Cameron did after he lost the Brexit vote. As with the former British prime minister, Renzi�s problem is in large part one of his own making. Last year, when he was riding high in the polls, Renzi promised he would step down if his reforms weren�t made into law. In doing so, he ensured that the vote would become a referendum not only on his reforms, but on his government.
Should Renzi step down, the transfer of power is unlikely to go as smoothly as it has in the U.K. His departure would almost certainly trigger political instability and early elections.
A strong showing by the populist 5Star Movement would throw Italian politics into chaos and upend its relationship with the EU. 5Star won the local elections in Rome and Turin in June and is currently ahead in national polls. �It�s one thing to have a British problem,� says a senior banker. �It�s another thing to have a British and an Italian problem.�

Paradoxically, the all-or-nothing nature of the situation is Renzi�s best hope of convincing his European interlocutors to bend the rules and allow a bailout that doesn�t affect small savers. Enrico Letta, who preceded Renzi as prime minister and now heads the Delors Institute, a Paris-based think tank, describes this act of political jiu-jitsu thus: In this troubled period for the EU, �Europe can afford everything apart from worst case scenarios becoming real.�

So far, the noises coming from the European Commission�s Directorate-General on Competition, where Italian and Commission officials are arguing over the application of the EU�s state aid rules, have been positive if inconclusive. In theory, the EU regulation � in this case, the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) � is fairly rigid: State funds to help banks can only be deployed after shareholders and bondholders bear the pain. To be precise, up to 8 percent of a bank�s liabilities has to be wiped out before any taxpayers� funds reach its coffers, a procedure known to financial nerds as a �bail-in.�
What makes that process so politically toxic is that an ill-fated sales campaign by banks means that the affected bonds, and similar financial products, now account for about 10 percent of all the financial holdings of retail investors, according to the Bank of Italy�s latest estimate. Indeed, some 46 percent of the debt that would be written off in a bail-in is held by Italian families, according to Giuseppe Lusignani, deputy chairman of Prometeia, a consultancy specializing in the banking sector.
These mom-and-pop bondholders include small-scale savers like Roberta Gaini, a mother of two from the town of Vitolini, not far from Florence, who lost �60,000 when Banca Etruria, a much smaller bank, was rescued under a similar scheme. Gaini�s mother and sister lost another �40,000. �The day after the bail-in, I went to the branch and asked for updates,� she says. �The director printed off my bank statement, and that�s when I learned all my assets had been written off.�

To get any sort of deal, Renzi will have to get the approval, or the benign neglect, of its frenemy Germany. The two countries have been working together on thorny issues such as the migration crisis and the future of the EU after Brexit. But they have also locked horns repeatedly in the past few months, including a bitter fight over a pan-European banking deposit scheme.

Wolfgang Sch�uble, the tough-minded German finance minister, has advocated taking a similarly intransigent stance on the Italian rescue, as has Jeroen Dijsselbloem, his Dutch counterpart who heads the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers. Renzi has made matters worse by often pointing out to the domestic gallery his unusually tough stance against the EU�s most powerful country.
For Germany, the main lesson of the eurozone debt crisis � which began in Greece in late 2009 and nearly led the common currency area to unravel � is that members of the bloc must be forced to respect its rules. When Greece was up against the ropes, German Chancellor Angela Merkel could have lifted some of the European pressure to help the country�s center-right remain in power and keep the leftists at bay. But she didn�t. And after years of uncertainty, that tough strategy broke the will of the leftist government and delivered most of what Germany wanted.
The bail-in requirements were central to Merkel�s efforts to sell the eurozone bailouts to skeptical German taxpayers. Which is why she can�t simply look the other way as Italy provides the system�s first test case.

I didn't realise the Italian banks had been flogging their own bonds to retail investors as a way of getting better returns than could be had through a savings account. No wonder bail-in would be so completely politically toxic.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 07:13

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Lamadrid posted:

Who designed a bailout mechanism that penalizes retail investors and what was the reasoning behind it because holy gently caress a lot of people in the middle class are going to be loving burned.

Nobody - the bail-in (note, not bailout; the difference is important here!) process hits the failed bank's bondholders, i.e. the people and institutions that lent the bank money. It was designed as a reaction to the failings of the previous ad hoc bailout approach, where failing banks were rescued by the state using taxpayers' money. The idea of bail-in is that before any taxpayer funds are used to rescue a bank, its investors should be forced to chip in. What this means in practice is that anyone who bought the bank's bonds sees their investment wiped out. Usually, the people who buy banks' bonds are sophisticated high net worth/institutional investors such as pension funds, who are generally expected to understand what they're getting themselves into and what the risks are. The oddity here is that Italian banks took the unusual step of aggressively selling their own bonds to retail investors as alternatives to low-yielding savings accounts, without quite bothering to explain that whereas funds in savings accounts are protected by deposit insurance, bonds are not.

Riso posted:

Someone who wants to insulate all the big money guys from the fallout.

Quite the opposite - as above, the intention of the European bail-in regulations is to ensure that the big guys get their investments wiped out before the state/taxpayer has to start coughing up.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 15:35

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Cat Mattress posted:

I'm sure Renzi could design something where the bail-in procedures spares small bondholders, or gets a floor level below which the investment wouldn't be wiped. For example if you've got �60K in bank bonds, then maybe if the floor is set at �50K then you'd only lose �10K; but someone who had �600K would lose �550K. (Completely arbitrary values, obviously. Finding the right level is a job for Renzi's staff.)

You can come up with systems that would allow to diminish the impact on the smallest bondholders without dropping the bail-in rule altogether. Don't tell me Renzi is too dumb to come up with such ideas.

It's extremely easy to come up with systems like that; it's extremely difficult to come up with systems like that which do not violate the EU-wide bail-in rules, which pretty much require all bank creditors to be treated in the same way (and shown no mercy).

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 17:35

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Randler posted:

If you have 50k in bank bonds, you're not really the kind of guy that I think of when talking about "Small time investments that need to be protected".

�50k is well below the maximum amount protectable under all deposit protection schemes in the developed world that I'm aware of, which seems like a pretty good benchmark for 'small time investment' to me (and to forestall the inevitable "they're bonds, not deposits" - yes, but in this case the consumers were sold the bonds as alternatives to protected savings accounts).

Cat Mattress posted:

They'd be all treated the same way, they'd all get to keep 50K (or whatever value) of their bonds' value and lose the rest. No difference in treatment.

This would still violate the BRRD.

also, oh dear: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/11/banks-predict-italy-will-fudge-a-new-bailout/

quote:

Bank of America estimates that 14.6pc of Italian household wealth is tied up in bank bonds � amounting to �235.6bn � and so bailing them in to recapitalise the banks, as EU rules demand, would be very painful.

Chances are that the Italians will find a way to fudge it, but that'll make uncle Wolfie very angry.

# ¿ Jul 20, 2016 22:28

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

The Commission has looked at the "problem" of Portugal and Spain's excessive deficits and responded in the usual way - by punting the problem into the longest grass available and hoping it'll go away of its own accord: http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0727/805204-european-commission-spain-portugal/

quote:

The European Commission has backed away from slapping fines on Spain and Portugal for running high deficits, in what would have been a landmark move by the EU to impose tough budget rules.
Under bloc regulations, the EU executive could have imposed fines of up to 0.2% of national gross domestic product (GDP) against Madrid and Lisbon - but instead showed clemency amid growing anti-Brussels sentiment highlighted by Britain's Brexit vote.
"Sanctions, even symbolic ones, would not have been understood by the public," the EU's Economic Affairs Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici, said at a news briefing.
"It is not the best approach at a time when doubts are widespread in Europe," he added.
The EU has to date not dared to use its full powers against euro zone overspending for fear of triggering a populist backlash and given the opposition of chronic overspenders such as France and Italy.
Triggering the sanctions process has been the long desire of Germany, which was instrumental in giving Brussels the new powers to enforce strict budget discipline.
Spain and Portugal have been under the EU's excessive deficit procedure since 2009 because of recurrent fiscal holes.
Bailed-out Portugal, long considered a star reformer, sharply cut its budget deficit from close to 10% of annual economic output in 2010 to 4.4% last year, but that still overshoots the EU's 3% target.
Spain, while avoiding a euro zone bailout, suffered through six years of recession.
In 2015 it reported a deficit of 5.1% of GDP, way off the 4.2% target set by the Commission.

Uncle Wolfie is doubtless very disappointed.

Poland, however, may not receive such clemency: https://next.ft.com/content/c9174d12-b9f6-11e5-bf7e-8a339b6f2164

quote:

Poland risks becoming the first EU member state to be punished for endangering the rule of law after Brussels said it would formally examine a burst of controversial reforms undertaken by the country's new ultra-conservative government.
The European Commission on Wednesday said it would � for the first time � use new powers to open a preliminary assessment of Warsaw's actions to determine whether they amount to a breach of the EU�s �fundamental values�.
The decision escalates a fight between Brussels and Warsaw over new legislation introduced by Poland�s Law and Justice party that critics say erodes the independence of state media and the country�s highest court.
Bearing a close similarity to reforms in Viktor Orban�s Hungary, they have raised fears of growing illiberalism on the EU�s eastern flank.
�Binding rulings of the constitutional court are not being respected, which I believe is a serious matter,� said Frans Timmermans, the commission's first vice-president. �The purpose is to clarify the facts and start a dialogue with Polish authorities.�
Politicians in Warsaw were taken aback by the commission's decision, attempting to play it down as a procedural step and pledging to open full dialogue with Brussels.
Prime Minister Beata Szydlo denied that any "special procedures" were being taken, stressing that it would only result in a deeper form of communication between the EU and its sixth-largest economy.

"Deeper communication" is one of the best euphemisms I've heard in a while. No, I wasn't getting a bollocking from my boss, we were just engaged in a prolonged period of deep communication!

# ¿ Jul 27, 2016 17:42

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

PiCroft posted:

How would that even work, unilaterally declaring independence and separating? And if they try, is there a possibility of tanks/soldiers on the streets?

They're insane and they're going to get themselves shot or sentenced to life imprisonment for treason.

# ¿ Jul 28, 2016 15:06

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN10B09T

quote:

(Reuters) - Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer has widened his lead in a Gallup poll ahead of October's repeat election for the Austrian presidency.
Hofer lost by a whisker in May to former Greens party leader Alexander van der Bellen in an election that Austria's constitutional court this month ordered re-run given vote count irregularities.
A series of Islamist attacks in Europe and Britain's decision to leave the EU since the original vote have shuffled the political deck in neutral Austria.
The poll published by the Oesterreich paper on Sunday showed the midpoint of the wide range of support for Hofer at 52 percent -- one point higher than a poll in early July found -- versus 48 percent for van der Bellen.
Fifty-seven percent of the 600 respondents cited Hofer's personality as the most important factor, followed by "protection from terror" at 56 percent and "more stringent asylum policy" at 55 percent, the paper said.
The poll also showed the anti-Islam and eurosceptic Freedom Party (FPO) with record-high 35 percent support, far ahead of the governing coalition partners: the Social Democrats at 25 percent and conservative People's Party at 19 percent.
FPO leader Heinz Christian Strache has repeatedly accused d the government of taking too soft a line on Europe's migrant crisis, which the FPO says has exposed Austria to danger.

itshappening.yiff

# ¿ Jul 31, 2016 12:53

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...5415_story.html

quote:

SALZBURG, Austria � On a crisp morning last October, 198 migrants arrived on the Greek island of Leros, all of them seemingly desperate people seeking sanctuary in Europe. But hiding among them were four men with a very different agenda.
The four were posing as war-weary Syrians � all carrying doctored passports with false identities. And they were on a deadly mission for the Islamic State.
Two of the four would masquerade as migrants all the way to Paris. There, at 9:20 p.m. on Nov. 13, they would detonate suicide vests near the Stade de France sports complex, fulfilling their part in the worst attack on French soil since World War II.
The other two men would not make it that far.
Stopped upon arrival in Greece for lying about their identities, they were delayed � but only for a few weeks before being granted permission to continue their journey deeper into Europe. Their story � including key details never before disclosed � offers a cautionary tale for a continent suddenly facing its worst security threat since the end of the Cold War. The men�s journey from the battlefields of Syria was reconstructed through interviews with intelligence officials and from French investigative documents obtained by The Washington Post, as well as an interview with an Islamic State commander.
European security officials say they think that the Islamic State has seeded terrorist cells on the continent over the past year and was able to do so in part because the European Union failed to come to grips with a migrant crisis that opened a funnel for the militant group.
Europe is now working with Turkey to bar its doors, ending the waves of irregular migration that washed over the continent last year. But more than a million migrants � a record � have already entered. Hundreds of thousands of them, European intelligence agencies say, may have done so without thorough checks at their entry point: Greece.
The vast majority of migrants were genuinely fleeing war and poverty. But over the past six months, more than three dozen suspected militants who impersonated migrants have been arrested or died while planning or carrying out acts of terrorism. They include at least seven directly tied to the bloody attacks in Paris and Brussels.
The Islamic State is gloating that they have far more lying in wait.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2016 15:14

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 00:03

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Private Speech posted:

It's pretty much the same as Trump saying that "Mexicans are rapists, thieves ... and some I assume are good people!" and using that as argument to cut off any immigration from Mexico into the US. There's literally zero reason whatsoever (beyond "common sense") to think that ISIS and other assorted loons would find it harder to perpetrate attacks if the borders were closed, given that they haven't really even used the fact that the borders are open right now in any of their attacks so far.

...I mean yeah some of them did travel to Syria but unless you think we have open borders with Syria (spoilers: we don't) or are trying to claim they came in as refugees, well, I dunno.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...5415_story.html

quote:

The vast majority of migrants were genuinely fleeing war and poverty. But over the past six months, more than three dozen suspected militants who impersonated migrants have been arrested or died while planning or carrying out acts of terrorism. They include at least seven directly tied to the bloody attacks in Paris and Brussels.

quote:

In early September, just a few weeks before the four men landed on Leros, they were invited to attend a secret meeting in a central Syrian city controlled by the Islamic State.

Two of them � the ones who would blow themselves up outside the Stade de France � were later glorified in an Islamic State video as unnamed militants from Iraq. The other two men, both round-faced and lightly bearded, were Mohamed Usman, a Pakistani who claims to be 23 years old, and Adel Haddadi, a 28-year-old Algerian.

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Aug 12, 2016

# ¿ Aug 12, 2016 14:15

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > EU Politics: I miss Renaults(don't make fun of me)

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