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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Why did we start Kaep again? He's 0 for 1 attempt through the first quarter in the snow.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Boosh! posted:

Have him starting in my playoff do-or-die game. :xd:

Same. Season-ending mistake.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Chip has a gimmick and both Kaep and Hyde probably fit well with that gimmick. But the team needs an offensive line, some improvements on d, and most importantly, like five wide recievers who aren't garbage.

Chip isn't the right coach to take what he has on the roster and adapt a game plan that maximizes their potential by playing to their strengths. I think he's actually trying to do that, but it's not resulting in wins.

I don't know if there is a coach that could win with this roster, mind you. Chip should get at least one more season, but if they don't have a major turnaround during the draft and free agency system, he should probably loving quit.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Like there has to be a dozen unemployed free agent wide recievers out there right now who are better than quinton patton.

Kerley might be an ok wr4 for the team. I'd like to see all of the rest traded away and the team should take the best wr available with their second, third, fourth, and fifth picks.

Also just a reminder that anquan boldin was available for the entire preseason but the niners didn't want him. And the. iners entered the regular season with a massive amount of unused cap space, too.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Without wideouts they can just go without a qb and snap the ball directly to hyde and draughn.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I'm missing the playoffs in all four of my leagues. I hate football.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

VietCampo posted:

i'm sorry, but loving lol.


Though i did need 10 from Moncreif, so i'm also on the gently caress Dwayne Allen boat atm.

You get a td, grats

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Spoeank posted:

hold up why the gently caress would you bench tom brady for colin kaepernick

Yeah I started him over eli and dalton and that was highly questionable, brady vs the rams is a no brainer?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

This number 11 on the jets could be good if he didn't drop three quarters of his targets

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Drunk Nerds posted:

You... uhhh... you kinda lost a lot of my high respect for you, here:

You totally neglect to mention that Brady's main/only downfield receiver went out for season, and his other two top guys were gimped all week. Brady without Gronk averages under 7 yards per pass

In the past 4 weeks, Kaepernick (in my league's scoring, which you failed to inquire about,) outscored Brady by 25. He outscored him in 3 of the past 4 weeks including two weeks when he had double Brady's points.

You say Tom Brady's "reasonable floor was 250 and 2," but he ended up with 269 and 1... Which reflects his new floor when the gronk situation is accounted for. Surely you can see that saying "Tom Brady's reasonable floor was 250 and 2" literally 24 hours after he throws for 269 and 1 undermines credibility? I went for the guy that was surging against a meh defense, instead of the proven stud who has like half his weapons crippled. A disputable move? Sure, but to act like it was an obvious mistake is pretty low.

I think you're right and I'm sorry for questioning your decision. I had in my head that Brady was a start-every-week stud no matter what, but had not looked at the specific situation this week.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I we sure Kaep is going to start? He got pulled in the fourth quarter after Snowmageddon. I assume so, but...

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

decypher posted:

IDP:

Kiko broke his hand, D'Qwell broke his head. I picked up Ellerby and was wondering if any of the following linebackers jump out at you:

Chandler Jones
K.Sheppard
E.Jackson
Kwiatoski
J.Ryan
D.Lee
Hitchens
B.Martinez

In bold are my gut choices.

When I rank LBs by scoring in the last three weeks in my own league's IDP scoring (which is almost definitely not the same as yours), Jackson is #30, Kwiatoski is 43, Darron Lee is 56, Hitchens is 32, and the others aren't in the top 64.

Chandler Jones is the most recognizable name to me, but his recent performance has been poor. He's probably reliable for two or three points, but that's it. Kelvin Sheppard has been doing moderately better, but not by much.

Edwin Jackson has been doing well lately, but he's playing the Texans: when he played the Texans in week 6, he only got two tackles (no assists, no sacks). He has two sacks on the season and only gets good points against run-first offenses: the Chiefs, Texans, and Jets are his good games.

Anthony Hitchens has played every week. He's coming off his best fantasy game of the season against the Vikings, with 6 tackles (two as TFLs), 4 assists, and one pass defensed. He is working alongside superstar linebacker Sean Lee, who has maybe been teaching this rookie how to play. I like him as an option but I would expect him to have a middling game against the Giants this week.

Nick Kwiatoski plays for the Bears and had a monster game this past week mostly because of the niners in the snow. His floor is zero, with no points in weeks 5, 10, and 11. The bears face the Lions.

Jake Ryan is interesting. He's had a very good season and a huge game in week 9 against the Colts, with 11 tackles and a defensed pass, but he scored zero in weeks 10-12 while injured. He's facing the seahawks this week, who should run the ball a lot, which might generate tackles. I would give him a close look and strong consideration, provided he's healthy.

Darron Lee is a rookie, facing the 9ers this week. I don't trust a Jet. Hyde should run a lot, generating some tackles, but who knows. He seems productive but, Jets.

Blake Martinez has been week-to-week with a sprained ankle, but has been productive when healthy. He hasn't played since week 11. Avoid unless he's definitely startable.

So, my IDP suggestion is:
Hitchens for a safer pick
Jake Ryan for a good option especially if Martinez isn't playing
Kwiatoski if you feel like a big gamble.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The overall top seed of the I Paid What for Who dynasty league spent 11 FAAB dollars all year. And we don't have free agency: he picked up ten players total all year, nine of them for one dollar each, and one guy for two bucks.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Dec 8, 2016

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I'm on BYE. ...in the consolation bracket. So my starting Crabtree didn't matter! Yay!

:sigh:

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Fedorowitcz, Hunter Henry, Vance McDonald, and uhhhh... Bennett has been useful while Gronk's been hurt maybe more than some folks expected, Jack Doyle is surprisingly high in TE ranks.

e. Top 36 TEs in 0.5 PPR (with points for tackles, but I doubt that applies to this list at all), sorted by average points per game:

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 06:04 on Dec 11, 2016

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah, I missed 4 playoffs. In my dynasty money league, I was top seed into the consolation tournament, though, so I had a bye last week and now play the lowest-seeded survivor from the other three consolation games. If I win this week, I'll be playing for the consolation championship and a token payout!

So... I'm still trying to win games in one league.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah, dropped players need to go into the waivers (unless the players were just added in order to be dropped in order to cause them to go into waivers...)

And why didn't they just trade the players? Was it because your league doesn't support a three-way trade?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I think what they did was collusion, but at a non-malicious level low enough that the proper punishment is to say "hey, don't do that kind of thing guys, it's not OK" and then move on.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

MacheteZombie posted:

Shakes fist at MFL for listing Daniel Brown as a WR instead of TE.

MFL's stated policy is that they list all players as what they were at the beginning of the season. But, commissioners have the power to modify that, and can change any player to a different position.

Consequently, leagues hosted on MFL need a rule about when and how their commissioner should change a player's position. In my league we figured this out this year, and the new rule will be that any owner can challenge any player's position at any time; the source of truth is the NFL football team's own website.

We had to do this for a IDP player this year who was listed as a linebacker but changed to defensive end.

You can also make it possible for owners to swap a player between listed position and any custom positions you add for them.

See: http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2016/support?SEARCH=player+position

Click the Ty Montgomery question for an explanation (basically, MFL's software can't handle dual positions, lol)

e. Note that a player only earns points for the position they're set at. So if your league (say) gives different PPR for WRs vs RBs, an owner with Ty Montgomery that you've set to be allowed to be set as a RB will have to decide which position they want him at, and can only get the PPR value for the position they chose.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Dec 15, 2016

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Spoeank posted:

12 team league and 4 team playoff supremacy. Only the strong survive

I think it's sucky to have most of the teams in your league already eliminated from playoff contention by like week 8. I mean there's nothing you can do about someone who goes 1-7 their first eight weeks, but throwing in a wildcard match or two keeps the league interesting for the non-leaders for longer. If your league is super evenly matched and everyone is within a couple games of the leader, then nevermind, your way is fine.

Keith Atherton posted:

For instance last summer a couple people brought up the possibility of adding 1 IDP and he refused because "It would complicate things too much"

A single, token IDP player is kind of gross, though. There's approximately two superstar IDP guys each year, and then a slew of players that will do very well many weeks and not well others. It's basically adding a dice roll to everyone who didn't draft JJ Watt (when he's not injured...), plus a dice roll for whether the JJ Watt owner has his guy get injured. There are so many quite good IDP guys available on waivers that there's no need to roster a backup any time other than when your guy is on bye... and a lot of times, not even then.

What I'm saying is, get a decent set of IDP guys, or I wouldn't bother. My league does four: 1DB, 1LB, 1DL, 1 FLEX(DB or LB or DL). With that setup and 12 teams, a minimum of 48 guys are rostered at all times, which leaves the waivers in a state where you actually have to pay attention and learn about IDP guys and try to find someone who may break out, or matchup-dependent performances, etc. Plus it's worthwhile to put a backup on the bench for some of them. With this format, you need to add bench slots, of course.

Having four or five IDP guys starting also makes the IDP scores be quite important for winning (depending on your scoring, of course). You can set up scoring so that a very good IDP performance produces similar scores to a very good offensive player's performance, or, you can keep scoring low (reduces volatility) if you want the IDP guys to still play second fiddle to most of the offense.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Dec 15, 2016

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Falcons just promoted a rookie WR, J.D. McKissic, off their practice squad. It sounds to me like they're not counting on Julio. Might run this guy out against the niners just to see how he does.

e. yeah Julio's been ruled out. Sanu is going to play.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Spoeank posted:

Mo Sanu gonna get 500 receiving yards this weekend

Not too sure of that. The falcons are gonna go up by two or three TDs in the first half and then just run the ball against the #32 run defense in the league. I'd be starting all your Tevin Colemans, though.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007


Why are you rostering two defenses? The Patriots face the Broncos this week and the Jets next week. The Texans face the Jags and then the Bengals. I'd just roll with the Pats and dump the Texans?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The "I Paid What for Who?" dynasty league here has $25 buy ins for 12 teams and pays all of that money out as:
1st: $160
2nd: $80
3rd: $40

Consolation bracket winner: $20

We charge a surcharge on the $25 dues to exactly cover hosting fees for MFL, whatever that number turns out to be.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

So you pretty much have to pick players who are in the wildcards or else they'll be on bye for the first week? And then most likely see those guys eliminated in the division title matches...

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I guess in later rounds you have to pick between mediocre players on teams you think will go to the SB, vs. very good players on teams likely to be eliminated early. Like do you think the Falcons are going all the way? If not, where do you draft Julio? I'm starting to see the appeal.

But I promised my wife the Fantasy season was over and I don't think I can renege and then try to watch all the playoff games. Her mom is coming over this weekend and we need to help her buy a car or she's going to get severely taken advantage of by some dealership.

And playing Fantasy while not watching the games... I don't know how people do that, it sounds like torture.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

So you're saying I should cancel my NFL Sunday Ticket subscription and not watch 8 games simultaneously at 10AM every Sunday morning, flip between two or three all afternoon, and then also watch all of the thursday, monday, and sunday night games?

But... I mean... what would I do instead?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

If I wasn't also looking at my fantasy lineup, I'd have no reason to do that, though.

Keep in mind I print out a spreadsheet every Saturday night with all the starting and sitting players for my six fantasy teams, fill in the channel numbers for each game from DirecTV, and then use that to quick-reference which offenses and defenses I want to watch at any given moment. Usually with an 8-game morning, there's only between one and three games at any given moment with a player on the field that I want to watch earn me points for a bit.

Early in the season I also watch a lot of games to scout players, and late in the season there are usually some backups starting that I want to scout. If there's an injury of a major skill player in any game I usually try to watch the backup play to see if he's likely to be a good pickup off waivers ASAP, or not.

All of this bullshit gives me an incredible edge against my opponents no edge whatsoever, given I was eliminated from the playoffs in all four leagues this year (the other two were MFL-10 slow drafts, so no playoffs).

In all honesty though it's a bit too much, my social life suffers during football season and I think I may well cut back to two leagues next year, cancel Sunday Ticket, and do something better with my time. But it's gonna be hard, going about my day on Sunday knowing all that football is happening and I could be watching it.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Well, I'd probably take that deal. But, it's a tough time to be doing trades in a Dynasty league. Soooo much can change in the offseason, so you have to add in that risk. Any or all of those three players' situations could radically change before the next season starts.

That said, I was also irritated with Matthews' inconsistency this year. I think Fuller has a long and successful career ahead of him, barring major injury, and JStew is a serviceable back I wouldn't mind having on my team if I didn't already have three good backs or something. Given Fuller's still only 10% of your cap space and you've said you can afford both guys, I'd pull the trigger.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

He broke at least two ribs, man. Like, I get there's talk he could play, but he shouldn't, and if he does play I doubt he'll be near as effective as normal.

I would swap him out for anyone healthy, esp. cobb (or take a wild gamble on Geronimo Allison???) or someone.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Sataere posted:

Getting a top flight guy like Olsen or Kelce early means you have consistency at one of the most volatile positions. You can find consistent value at RB and WR a lot easier than you can at TE.

The trick is not to reach or overdraft.

The trick is also to correctly guess who will be this year's high guy. Kelce and Olsen were 1 and 3 in PPR. #2 was the extremely reliable Kyle Rudolph. Jimmy Graham was #4, but he had two bad games weeks 14 and 15 that might have cost owners playoff games. Walker was 5. Ertz was 6, but had a horrible start to the season and wasn't worth owning until week 9, and only put up 5 points week 16 so may have cost some owners their championship.

Jordan Reed was #7, and LOL if you tried to rely on him! He had some monster games and was also predictably injured a lot, including three total points earned during weeks 13 through 16. He had monster games weeks 4, 8, and 12. Bleh.

Cameron Brate is #8. Very inconsistent too, although not as swingy as Reed. Dennis Pitta is next, but bolstered by a 20 point game week 17 so probably shouldn't be next, and also he was super swingy and his 10.1 average relies on three or four monster games, similar to Reed. It's exactly the same story for Martellus Bennet at #11, although for more recognizable reasons, and Jason Witten at #12 isn't much better.

Basically once you get past Kelce, Rudolph, and Olsen, you're in the weeds already. Throw in a healthy Gronk and I think you have listed all of the four tight ends worth drafting before like round 6+. Maybe 8+. If you streamed TE and picked up a Fedorowicz or a Jack Doyle for just the right games, you might have done very very well, but if you were less lucky or prescient you probably got stuck with an average of maybe 7 points per game or less at the TE position.

I think this is a strong argument to draft Travis Kelce or Greg Olsen or Kyle Rudolph very early, and if you can't, then gently caress it your TE slot is hosed. I'd add in Gronk but I feel the same way about him as about Reed: if you own him you need to consume another bench slot with another good TE and get ready to lose your top TE for the whole season at any moment, and that's probably too much to pay even for their healthy production, so don't do it.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Jan 27, 2017

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

You're also going to draft a lot more RBs and WRs, which lets you spread your risk. And even a mediocre mid-range QB is going to throw some passes every week and get you a few points, whereas a mediocre mid-range TE may get you zeros for half your games. If you don't have one of the top 12 or so you are streaming TEs, it's mandatory at that point (and I'd argue mandatory once you're below the top ~6).

Also depth charts actually mean something for these positions. The WR1 on any team other than the niners is going to be startable most weeks, maybe not a great producer but at least startable in the FLEX. Whereas the TE1s on at least half the NFL teams are unstartable most weeks.

Essentially this all comes back to a basic question of positional scarcity, but every-week-startable TEs are so scarce (I argued before there's approximately three to five of them) that if you can't snag one at an appropriate round, then gently caress drafting a TE before the mid-late rounds.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Actually for real-life actual lottery tickets that's a path to the poorhouse so I'm starting to wonder if lottery tickets are actually a good strat in fantasy football, either. I think next year I'm gonna stick to 100% safe bets even if it means overdrafting them and I'll see how that goes.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Ehh. I think there's a difference between the basic randomness inherent in fantasy football applicable to every player, and a "lottery ticket." Implicit in the term is the very long odds but with a huge payoff if you win. A gamble you expect to not pay out almost every time, but every once in a while you get extraordinarily lucky and it wins you your season.

That's not the same as a guy that most people would agree is a solid starter pick at the beginning of the season, and then due to the normal vagaries of fantasy football, they don't work out. I think a guy like Todd Gurley was a risk, but I wouldn't have rated him as a lottery ticket. Just more of a coinflip guy who came up tails this year mostly due to his situation (on a garbage team).

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

The Zack beat me to it but yup, I mostly wrote/maintain those rules. We're having some discussion about rules changes this year but it won't be anything major.

In terms of being very long and very detailed, I recommend it especially for a money dynasty league, in that I think it's best to avoid arguments and hard feelings and issues that could last for years if they're not ironed out in advance. If you do nothing else, clearly and unambiguously lay out your rules for handling rule disputes.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Eddie Lacy is said to have been weighed at 267 pounds by one of the teams he visited. I would not be scrambling to grab him just yet.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

fantasy football 2017: i got beathard in the draft

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