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RCarr posted:"Ignore all older players and load up on young lottery tickets, etc" That is the complete crux of your draft strategy in a nutshell. Your main decision will be whether you want to lean into win-now mode, take a more developmental approach, or something in between the two. Traditionally WRs are the most valued position because a young guy just stepping into his prime can give you a reliable 3-5 years of top flight production with minimal turn over or injury risk. Guys like OBJ and AJ Green are the most valuable players in a dynasty startup draft for that reason. RBs get drafted way too early by inexperienced dynasty players, so take advantage of the guy who picks ADP in the first two rounds and focus on names like Jeremy Langford, and Matt Jones in the later rounds. In all positions try to maintain a long term focus while striking a balance between value-pick guys who are solid but in the twilight of their careers, guys who are producing and killing it right now, and young lottery ticket guys who are just getting ready to take the next big step. That was a bit of a ramble, but hope it helps.
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May 13, 2016 19:58
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I'd draft Woodhead in the 10th without even thinking about it. He's chronically undervalued and will play a key piece in that offense even if Melvin Gordon comes back from microfracture surgery without issue. I think both Crow and Yeldon could pan out as RB2s with upside, but their backfield situations are a little murkier.
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May 17, 2016 16:16
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There hasn't been much content yet, but I'm liking The Ringer NFL podcast. It's hosted by Robert Mays from the old Grantland podcast, with a seemingly rotating cast of co-hosts.
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May 19, 2016 13:38
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MrSargent posted:I'm curious as to what everyone thinks about Dez Bryant this year. He had X-rays on his foot and still isn't cleared to participate fully in OTAs. Also Tony Romo is made out of dust and I don't think the Cowboys have done anything to address their backup QB situation. He is obviously incredibly talented but there are so many question marks that I think I might leave him off my board unless he takes a nosedive in adp. I'm with you on this one. Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that both him and Romo sustained major injuries, but I think that the main point to be gleaned from that is that his monster numbers are totally dependant on both of them being healthy because I really don't see him producing under any other QB on the roster right now. That being said, in the not so off chance that Romo and Dez stay relatively healthy and Ezekiel Elliot is the real thing, that Cowboys offense is going to be absolutely deadly and Dez will be a top 3 WR. So, long story short, I'm taking Dez if he falls to me as WR 6+, but I'm too risk adverse to pick him up sooner than that even though I fully believe he will outperform. Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Jun 4, 2016 |
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Jun 4, 2016 02:52
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While I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that OBJ could end up with more points than AB84 by the end of the year, there is pretty much no quantifiable reasoning with which to make that prediction right now. The Giants offense should be much improved overall, but they are still not even sniffing the level of the Steeler's offense. The Giants also added more weapons which might dilute OBJ's targets and the Carolina game last year showed us that there are some chinks in OBJ's armor either way. Meanwhile AB84 pretty much teleports into open space on every single play and it doesn't matter who is defending him or who is throwing to him. AB84 > Julio Jones >> OBJ Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Jun 15, 2016 |
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Jun 15, 2016 15:49
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Spoeank posted:1-2-3 not surprising but 4 shocked me. I didn't realize Randle had so much production You know, it's kind of weird. As a Giants fan my memory of Rueben Randle was that his granite hands stonehandedly tanked our season, but when I dug into the stats a bit more, he really wasn't that bad. He apparently only had 4 official drops last year (93rd in the league) and he averaged 5.6 targets per game and caught an average of 3.5 targets per game, which puts him in the same ballpark as Jordan Matthews 2014 season. Maybe it's that his drops were so goddamn egregious and visible, but I really thought he was a lot worse than that.
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Jun 25, 2016 16:13
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Papes posted:"Best" spot assumes that everyone drafts perfectly which never happens, but in a theoretical draft it would always be ideal to pick 1st in a traditional snake format. There are a lot of reasons that this is false, but this year it wouldn't be the worst strategy for the sake of getting AB84. If you still subscribe to the idea of taking an RB with your first pick, it's much better to go around pick 4 or 5 in a 12 team league. I'd say picks 1-3 are best if you plan to try zero RB. If you want to draft more traditionally, either side of 6 is pretty good. Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 13:36 on Jul 8, 2016 |
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Jul 8, 2016 05:33
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von Metternich posted:Is Brown the consensus #1 pick even in non-PPR leagues? I guess with Bryant gone and a healthy Big Ben he seems like a good bet...are people reacting/overreacting to last year's Running Back Holocaust? Yeah it's looking like AB84 #1 in all formats, although I could see the reasoning behind going Bell at #1 too. The problem is that once again every first round RB has questions around their health, their O-line, the sample size for last year's performance, or some combination of the three. I do think that there is some overreacting to last season, but Zero RB has been gaining traction for a while and last season really showcased why. Even in an average year for RB injuries, top tier WRs are a surer bet than top tier RBs, and there's also the fact that it's a lot harder to take advantage of RB attrition picks when you haven't set yourself up at WR early in the draft, so what you end up with instead is a roster that is top heavy with guys who are more susceptible to injury and has very little upside if those guys go down. Rotoviz and 4for4 have a lot of good articles on the Zero RB strategy, so check those out if you can.
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Jul 8, 2016 14:34
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That was pretty drat click-baity. I agree that Smith is undervalued, but I don't think it's the deep threat who gets the most work in Chip Kelly's offense, it's the slot receiver. All aboard the Bruce Ellington hype train, choo choo!
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Jul 13, 2016 17:48
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Spoeank posted:That particular rookie has RG3 throwing to him so I don't know if you're proving the point you're trying to prove. Let's play a game called "Guess the QB!!": pre:Player Comp/G Att/G % Y/G Y/A 300+ TD/G Int/G QB#1 22.25 35.25 63.10 253.90 7.20 2.00 1.25 0.88 QB#2 21.08 35.08 60.10 246.40 7.00 3.00 1.23 0.92 QB#3 18.06 29.88 60.50 210.60 7.00 1.00 1.19 0.63 pre:Player Comp/G Att/G % Y/G Y/A 300+ TD/G Int/G QB#4 28.53 41.80 68.30 324.70 7.80 10.00 2.13 0.73 Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Jul 13, 2016 |
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Jul 13, 2016 21:20
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Since you can start 5 WRs, I would still draft superstar WRs and blue chip prospects early and often. The QB scoring is pretty crazy for a 12 team dynasty league and will create a huge gulf between the top 4-5 QBs and the next 25. Cam, Wilson and Luck would be pretty much God-mode, but I'd also consider guys like Carr, Mariota, and Winston in the early rounds too. So basically, your instinct seems pretty spot on. With your first pick try to grab OBJ, Julio, AB84, Nuk, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans so on and so forth and if you can't then look for Cam, Luck, or Wilson. Stick with drafting best available WR/QB for the first half of the draft and skew your rankings towards younger guys and dual threat QBs. Use your later rounds on change of pace backs and second string guys in RB committees who could see increased workload as a result of injury. Some names off the top of my head and in no particular order - Jerrick McKinnon, Charles Sims, Theo Riddick, Duke Johnson/Isaiah Crowell, Derrick Henry, Tevin Coleman, Buck Allen, CJ Prosise...
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Jul 14, 2016 16:09
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Paging Mr. Beer4theBeerGod, question for you RE: Beersheets and apologies if this has already been explained elsewhere. I'm looking at a standard 12 team sheet and wondering how come the X/Y/P column for QBs is set to 0.5/1/P? Is that just a product of only being able to start 1 QB, making QB2 numbers irrelevant? Does that mean that the X column would have been weeks where they performed as QB1-6? And lastly, do the number of weeks in the X column exclude number of weeks in the Y column i.e. if a player has 3/6/15 in that column, those three QB0.5 weeks aren't included as part of the 6 QB1 weeks?
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Aug 3, 2016 16:10
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IMO your value on Gronk at $18 was worth holding onto more than Brown @ $55. I would have stayed pat.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:45
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Allen Evans Marshall Nelson Cooks Watkins Allen to me is the undisputed #1 here. The Chargers are not going to throw as much as they did last year, but they've got a great QB and are a pass first team. Through the first 7 weeks of last season before his injury, Allen had the #3 most targets in the NFL behind Nuk and Julio. He also had an insanely high 77% completion average (Julio had 69% and Nuk had 57%). Both of those numbers could regress significantly this season and he'd still be a top 10 WR in PPR. Continuing with that logic of following the targets, it's a toss up between Evans and Marshall here. Marshall had more targets and a better completion percentage, but we all know that Evans was nearly league worst in drop percentage last year, and I expect that to trend upwards this season. Add to that Evans being the obvious focal point in the red zone (despite only catching 3 TDs last year...jesus those drops) and he could easily do better than Marshall this year. Marshall was the #3 WR in PPR last year though! So he should absolutely be next on this list. The Jets are the Jets, but Marshall and Fitz had chemistry and I don't see that changing much this year. I think Forte siphons a few targets away from Marshall, and I think his TD numbers regress a bit too, which is why he goes behind Evans. I expect Nelson to be back to form. Also, Aaron Rodgers. Cooks really came around in the last half of last season, but I don't fully trust him yet. That uncertainty about who he is drops him down to second to last here, Brees be damned. Health is a skill and Watkins doesn't have it. Also, even a receiver as talented as a healthy Sammy gets a ding for playing on a team that rushes more than every team aside from Carolina.
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Aug 5, 2016 17:18
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While the endless customization options of MFL are awesome, the site layout and UI is a real heap of poo poo without significant tweaking. I had a dynasty league disband pretty much solely because the site was so non-user friendly and no one in the league had the smarts to fix it.
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Aug 5, 2016 19:30
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FWIW, I have a really hard time imagining any scenario where I'd take Kelvin over Jordy.
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Aug 15, 2016 22:24
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Some RBs: Derrick Henry Tevin Coleman Jerrick McKinnon  CHRISTINE MICHAEL
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Aug 16, 2016 15:23
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Slowdrafting an MFL10 pub league, and trying to go Zero RB from the 12 spot sucks rear end. My pick has come up at the turn in round 3 I'm starting to see that everyone else is trying Zero RB as well. Kinda thinking I should go BPA here considering my options, but could use a gut check from you d00ds: Current Roster: Jordy Nelson Dez Bryant Best available: QB: Aaron Rodgers Cam Newton RB: Doug Martin Carlos Hyde CJ Anderson Thomas Rawls WR: Julian Edelman Donte Moncrief Eric Decker TE: Greg Olsen Kinda thinking I should grab Rodgers and Edelman or Martin. Thoughts?
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Aug 17, 2016 20:04
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Spoeank posted:I honestly think way too much of fantasy football advice has moved to proving the person is smarter than the industry and uncovered a hidden truth rather than trying to actually help people. This is exactly it. It's the same thing that happens in finance. Guy gets lucky one year and hits on most of his dart throws, then thinks he's a bonafide market guru who's "figured it out" and can't be bothered to do any basic analysis anymore. Also, Beer4thebeergod, I'm probably just a moron, but why can't I edit any of your beersheet excel files? I'm just trying to black out drafted players and highlight my own, but it doesn't change anything. Could be a problem on my end, but just wanted to see if there was something obvious I was missing.
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Aug 18, 2016 18:01
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Cool, that was it. Thanks guys!
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Aug 18, 2016 19:44
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The only thing that scares me off about LMurray is that the Raiders seem to be pretty lukewarm on him, and Deandre Washington is lighting up camp and the preseason.
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Aug 19, 2016 17:41
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I know I've asked you guys about this before, but as my draft draws closer I'm having second thoughts on my choices. Weird keeper system, but basically all you need to know is that every player is worth X points and I can keep up to 10 points worth of players for free. After 10 and up to 16, I have to sacrifice draft picks to acquire more points to accommodate (a 1st for 5 points, 2nd for 4, etc.). Here are my options, with current choices in bold. 12 teams, effective 2QB league (superflex), 0.5 PPR. Eddie Lacy (7) Brandin Cooks (6) Dez Bryant (6) Todd Gurley (5) Keenan Allen (5) Derek Carr (4) Matt Jones (4) DeVante Parker (4) Danny Woodhead (2) Stefon Diggs (2) Jeremy Langford (2) Michael Crabtree (2) Ryan Fitzpatrick (2) With these keepers I would give up a 4th. I also have a very good chance of having a top 3 pick in this draft, so I could potentially pass on a guy like Dez and redraft him if he's there in the first round. Now that I look at it, those 2 point players are basically equivalent to a 4th round pick after keeping Gurley and Allen...so I dunno if Woodhead is really worth a 4th. I'm probably overthinking this. Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 21:33 on Aug 19, 2016 |
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Aug 19, 2016 21:28
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Man. That is a doozy of a rule set. I'd still most likely go best available WR or RB first, with an edge towards WR. Same through the first 3 or 4 rounds, then try to grab Bortles, Eli or Rivers in the mid rounds.
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Aug 20, 2016 17:54
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Mr. McGibblets posted:Just knowing my league there is no chance in hell Aaron or Cam aren't picked by the second round. Last year Rogers went #1 overall. Just saw the -4 int scoring. Do not draft Eli. Target Wilson again in the late 1st early 2nd? Some other slightly later QBs to consider: Brees, Big Ben, Cousins (if you believe the second half of last season was real), Rivers.
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Aug 20, 2016 18:27
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surf rock posted:Trying to decide on a trade offer, would love advice. I would take that deal at face value, but what are the keeper rules?
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Aug 21, 2016 02:57
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surf rock posted:My other keepers are Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Julio Jones, Donte Moncrief, and Greg Olsen. Everybody gets to keep six, so that's 96 players off the board before the draft begins. No limit to how many years you can keep the same guy, no punishment for keeping guys. I say mash. Also that's a hell of a lineup for a 16 team league.
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Aug 21, 2016 03:51
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Should I trade picks 1.11 (11 overall), 2.02 (14 overall) and 4.02 (38 overall) to get pick 1.01 (1 overall), 3.01 (25 overall) and 5.01 (49 overall)? How do you guys evaluate draft pick trades? I basically just use the FBG calculator and some very vague mental calculations, but I think I'm pretty bad at it.
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Aug 22, 2016 18:18
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Redraft. Also, I should mention 1 PPR. I have been very high on the zero RB strategy this year and would take AB84 at number 1.
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Aug 22, 2016 18:38
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Picking from the third spot in a 12 team 2QB 0.5 PPR league with keepers, and struggling to decide who I should target with my first rounder. My keepers are Todd Gurley and Keenan Allen, and I'm deciding between the best available QB or WR that should fall to me. Here are the possibilities: QB: Drew Brees Andrew Luck WR: Deandre Hopkins AJ Green I know that in a 2QB league you should really pound on the QB position early, but it also seems like there is a ton of value in the middle tiers of the position this year.
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Aug 24, 2016 17:15
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In this industry, I guess you take whatever short stints in the sun you can get. Couldn't find the rate my team thread with my very cursory scan so you guys get to trash my overcomplicated league's draft instead! 2 QB league 6 pt passing tds, .5 ppr, 2 RB, 2 wr, 1 the, 1 flex. Keeper league, my keepers were Todd Gurley and Keenan Allen. QB1: Andy Dalton QB2: Derrick Carr WR1: Julio Jones Wr2: Keenan Allen RB1: Todd Gurley RB2: Frank Gore Flex: Julian Edelman TE: Antonio Gates Def: Rams K: Catanzaro Bench: Ameer Abdullah Theo Riddick Matt Ryan Devante Parker Tajae Sharp
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Aug 26, 2016 04:08
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Man, I feel pretty good about my QBs. Rodgers and Cam were kept, Brees and Luck were the top 2 picks; so I feel like I did best with what I was given. The way the league is set up, no one is really starting two top 5 QBs, so my two solid midtier QBs seem like a pretty fair trade off for having a WR corps like I do.
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Aug 26, 2016 04:23
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That's a pretty awesome lineup for a 12 team league, congrats.
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Aug 26, 2016 21:24
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Sataere posted:desperately trying to play catch up. At the same time, this is the reason that people expect some regression too. Better offense/ better run game + better defense = less garbage time. That being said, Robinson is extemely talented and I think he'll feast even in a with fewer targets in a more efficient offense.
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Aug 27, 2016 01:09
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We're getting to that point in the preseason when that old familiar feeling comes creeping back into your brain like an old friend. I've made every wrong choice a man can make.
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Aug 27, 2016 05:40
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Between your team and the players on waivers I cannot fathom what the other 11 teams look like.
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Aug 27, 2016 23:18
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MinibarMatchman posted:I get 2 keepers in a 2-QB league. Right now I think I want to keep Ingram since I got him in round 6 last year but I also have Brady, Brees, and stashed Taylor early in Week 2 from last year. Should I just keep a combination of 2 QBs (both round 1, 2 picks) or just Brees? Keeping Taylor means he'd count as just a Round 8 pickup due to being a waiver addition but obviously Brees or Brady are better players. I nearly got laughed out of the Rate My Team thread for starting Dalton and Carr in a 2QB league. Don't be like me. Keep Brees and maybe Taylor. If Brady hangs around into the mid rounds of the draft (he won't) I'd try to scoop him back up too.
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Aug 29, 2016 14:52
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Would you guys drop Tajae Sharpe for Michael Thomas? How about for Travis Benjamin? Also, would you rather have old man Gates or old man Witten?
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Aug 30, 2016 20:59
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I'm thinking about offering the Charles owner in my league a trade for Ware, but his roster is pretty poo poo. Would getting Marty Bennett for Ware be stupid? I'm starting Gates. My other RBs: Gurley, Gore, Abdullah
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Sep 5, 2016 00:48
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Speaking of Sharpe, I'm holding him and Devante Parker but thinking about making a move because there seem to be some egregiously undervalued players left on the wire. Would you guys drop Lord Sharpe or Parker for one of these dudes: Markus Wheaton Mike Wallace Kenny Stills Pierre Garcon Deandre Washington Alfred Morris Tevin Coleman I'm thinking about holding Parker to see what he does once he actually gets on the field, but dropping Sharpe for Wheaton or Wallace. I've got a hunch that both of those dudes will be solid this year. That being said, I'm relatively strong at WR (Julio, K. Allen, Edelman are my other three) and I feel kind of weak at RB (Gurley, Ware, Gore, Abdullah) so maybe a lottery ticket like Washington is the right play? E: Rishard Matthews, Jamison Crowder and Theo Riddick are also hanging out on waivers. Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Sep 7, 2016 |
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Sep 7, 2016 15:43
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Samu posted:Should I take Kelvin Benjamin for Gio Bernard? My other RBs are Lacy, Charles, Foster and Henry and my WRs are Maclin, Hilton, Aiken, and Green-Beckham. Depends on how many WRs and RBs you can start and whether this is PPR or not, but I would probably pass on that trade.
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Sep 7, 2016 21:11
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