Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Cheap Trick souvenirs posted:

To give you guys context, so far the people who missed them entirely are Leperflesh, coronaball, quiet feet, and ColdBlooded. Not sure who got stopped in playoffs futher yet aside from 89, Epi Lepi, tadashi, LMAOthekid though I'm sure more of my listed posters got knocked out, too.

I highly recommend you all join more leagues. As your number of leagues approaches infinity, your probability of making the playoffs in at least one league approaches 1!

No idea if I'm a listed poster, but I made playoffs in 12/12 leagues with playoffs. I had byes in 5, advanced in 2/crashed out of 3 of the 5 leagues in which I played the first round and it's over, will crash out of 1 two-week goon league first round playoff this week after a disastrous first week, and have 1 more with no byes and playoffs starting this week that I'm top seed. Also currently a game ahead of the pack in a league that plays all 17 weeks, no playoffs, final record is it :)

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Texibus posted:

Looks like y'all didn't give the rules enough thought, and need to do some revising before punishing people for working within the system they were given.

Kinda my take on it too, fwiw. No waivers is asking for this kind of skirting of the trade deadline.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
lol just had a fleaflicker stat "correction" (where I think they actually had the numbers wrong, not that NFL made an official correction) change a 1st round playoff result in one of my leagues. +1 solo tackle for Perryman on one side and -1 assisted tackle for CJ Mosley on the other, and now the 6th seed knocked off the 3rd!

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

dphi posted:

Anyone starting Dwayne Washington this week? Looks like Riddick and Zenner could both be out and Stafford's playing with a broken finger, not a great matchup though against the Giants.

I would try very hard to start someone else, but if he's all you have, he's all you have.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I'm facing Jameis. I would be replacing Cam with Dak. Now I'm down 13 points.

So basically it's Dez + ??? > Jameis + Hopkins + 13 where ??? is either Cam Newton or Dak Prescott.

Eh, there's no right answer. Dak is only averaging like a point more per game on the year, but was super consistent for most of the season, never going below ~17.5 points in normal 4 pt passing TD scoring from week 2 to week 12. During that same period, Dak had a higher ceiling and higher floor than Cam, as Cam oscillated between low to mid teens and mid 20s and Dak was high teens to high 20s. Dak's disappointed recently, but one of those was against Minnesota and the other against NYG who are quietly like 31st stingiest in points against for QBs.

I'd probably go Dak but have not paid attention to Cam except to see that he's fallen off a ton from last year, so can make no better endorsement than "Dak because of what I'm seeing in boxscores."

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

I would've sat Brees if I had him anywhere. 0 TD and 6 interceptions in the previous two, going up against a tough AZ defense on the road, when Brees away from the superdome is always dogshit anyway.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Cam's fallen off for a huge number of reasons including injuries, being a constant target, and having no pass protection to speak of. The real question is where does TB lie in terms of defenses. They're turning into a surprisingly stingy opponent.

Not accounting for TB's recent improvement, but on the year I think PHI, PIT, and BAL are all comparable or stingier to QBs, and he put up ~27, 19, and 25 against them (then his 11 and 7 against MIN and NYG, of course). I dunno, again I'd say if you're feeling Cam, go for it, because there isn't an unambiguous answer. But I'm Team Dak.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I think the honest answer is that if I'm going to win this week, I'll need Dez to do well. The only way that happens is if Dak does well too. So gently caress it, let's do this.

:hfive: ride that covariance

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Murmur Twin posted:

It could be worse

Confirmed. I'm going to lose in one league to a team that started Riddick and Julio (and McCoy, Freeman, and Howard).

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Our waivers are closed and I have the Eagles D/ST while my opponent has ODB Jr. Do I even want to play my Defense? If he gets 1 or 2 TDs from Odell and I also get negative points I am pretty much hosed for the matchup.

How often have there been negative DST games in your scoring? How many were against NYG and how many negatives did PHI have? What's PHI's average weekly score? Unless you're in some weird setting, most DSTs should get positive scores against most opponents most weeks, so yes you should start them.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

MakaVillian posted:

Looking for help on which defence to start for my championship game: Buffalo, Tennessee, Green Bay or Cincinnati. This league only gives 0.5 for sacks and rewards largely allowing few points and yards. I'm leaning toward Buffalo but Tennessee and Cincinnati are intriguing because of the match ups.

Tell us the match ups, and your league-specific rankings of points for of those options and points against for their opponents would help too!

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Popero posted:

E: Seattle is a good start too no matter who is on your team

This

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

BAE OF PIGS posted:

I'm down 81.46 to 84.56 in the championship right now. I have Ezekiel Elliott playing tonight and the guy I'm playing has Dez playing. I hope to god they don't take out Elliott early (or keep him from playing at all) to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Sit them both imo, and let Romo play tonight so he can feel like he earned it just a little bit when they win the SB

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Gorman Thomas posted:

Welcome to the long dark offseason.

Or join a dynasty league or two!

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

IcePhoenix posted:

Friends, I can't decide who to keep in my two keeper leagues and want to make end of year trades. Either for moving up in the draft next year or some sort of "quantity for quality" type deal.

League one: 1ppr, 3 WR/2RB/1QB/1TE Each team keeps exactly four players and they are your first four picks

Locks: AB and Mike Evans
Two more: Tyrell Williams, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, Ben Roethlisberger, Jordan Reed

I'm almost wondering if I should just see who I can get the best picks for and keep the last two standing. I think that's also the order I would rank them if I had to pick right now.

League two: 1ppr, 3w/2r/1q/1t/1wrt, bonus points at 100/150/200 yards r/r, two keepers each team, keeper costs 1 round higher than you drafted them (UDFA cost a 7th round pick), 1st can be kept for a 1st.

Lock: David Johnson (6th)
Other: OBJ (1st), Gurley (5th), Tyreke (7th), Dak (14th)

Again, order I'm currently leaning.

Both Reke and Tyrell Williams feel like they're going to be overdrafted. I'd trade either now while they're hot. Gurley for a 5th is a lock in the second league, and Gurley for a 3rd in the first league is probably a lock (even moreso if most people use all their keeper slots and thus dilute the player pool a ton). For the first league, I'd order the remainder: Gurley, Ingram, Reed, Tyrell, Ben, but definitely would not keep Tyrell or Ben.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

IcePhoenix posted:

Everyone has to use all four slots (I have tried to get this changed but it's unfortunately in the "it's tradition!" argument phase now) so it's 48 players deep (maybe 52 if we manage to get back up to 14 teams like it used to be) when we get to the actual picks. Also I agree on Ben for sure, I generally don't like keeping QBs in one QB leagues unless it's an absolute top tier guy, I was just listing him for completion's sake.

Just out of curiosity, any reason you're so low on Tyrell? He was solidly a WR2 (17th in points among WRs) this year. I know Allen will be back but I don't really trust him to stay healthy a whole (or even half) season.

Tyrell has been great this season, but main target hog Keenan died half a game into the season, the other target hog Woodhead died shortly after (he had 107 and 87 targets his last two healthy years, compared to Melvin's 57 this year, but I haven't checked the other RB target counts this year), Travis Benjamin is probably better than he's been playing, Inman has come in and been useful, and Tyrell is still just a UDFA with a single good season in which he also had massive opportunity. Just screams out "will be overdrafted based on production from previous year" when people forget all the contingencies that helped him be so productive. I'm happy to take a shot on the Chargers probable WR2 at some point in the draft, but definitely not draft him as a fantasy WR2. I'm not touching him as a 3rd or 4th round pick ahead of solid RB2s with elite RB1 ceilings (Gurley, Ingram).

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
I'm about to make my first major off season dynasty trade. I love dynasty :3:

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Ben Nevis posted:

Just thinking about next season, what do you do with Allen Robinson? I mean, the stats are sort of freakish to me. He had virtually the same number of targets (2 less this year), 7 less catches, and over 700 less yards.

He thrived on deep balls to get that yardage, and that plus absurd touchdown efficiency makes me think 2015 was flukier for him than we thought. Tough to say he'll be as bad as this year again, but I don't think he'll get back to 2015 numbers without massive improvements at QB.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Ben Nevis posted:

I also drafted CMike and took a defense over Michael Thomas.

:wth: Maybe with super shallow benches where you can't stash rookies easily, but even then Thomas was like at worst the 7th or 8th rookie off the board in drafts last year in most leagues. drat.

What defense was it haha

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

SalTheBard posted:

I've got both Greg Olson and Jared Cook. We have a keeper league and I'm going to be keeping Jordan Howard and ODBJ. I have Lamar Williams as well, I'm assuming keep Lamar over either Olson or Cook even though Miller is really injury prone or is it too early to be thinking about it.

I'm sorry, but this post is bad in basically every possible way

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

SalTheBard posted:

Holy gently caress I'm so embarrassed right now

Lol nah it's fine, just ticked a lot of boxes: why do you think Williams Miller is injury prone, why did you use "ODBJ," why are you considering keeping Cook when the entire page was about him being awful and getting overdrafted by people not really paying attention but remembering he did something in the playoffs?

Anyway, way too early to worry about keepers, but yes you should keep Miller over Olsen or Cook. Short of Miller dying during the offseason, that probably won't change.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

Ahem, we are here to gloat. And Benne.


Delanie had 8.2 PPG this year. 8.2 was:
2016 #5
2015 #9
2014 #6
2013 #9
2012 #5

Delanie is interesting because he is top five because the position was weak this year, but his 8.2 varies wildly between #5 and #9 over the last 5 seasons. So he's useful but the position was down overall this year. If it was 2015 he got beat out by Ben Watson.

Yeeep. Now show the same for Black Unicorn. All you fuckers so sure he'd be elite if Gronk missed any time were wrong!!

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

6.8 PPG without Gronk.

So... worse.

Edit but somehow 7th overall in TE fantasy points

Pretty sure when I checked past years, he would've been in the range of TE#12 or 13.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Ok, but that's easy. Tell me what's going to happen with Ertz in 2017.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Azhais posted:

So Dynasty folks, what do you think Latavius Murray is worth in terms of rookie draft picks?

e: 16 team, full ppr, 3 wr/2rb/1flex

Somewhere around pick 18 to 24 or so, mid to late 2nd in a 12 team league. Downgrade in o-line, but can't really argue with the lack of competition he'll have in the backfield. I'm not really interested in him tbh, though.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

MacheteZombie posted:

just got an offseason trade offer:

my dthom or arob for his tyreek hill. I'm sure tyreek is going to regress, but he was drat good.

It's a .5 ppr dynasty league. I also have Kelce if anyone thinks that matters (I don't). Any thoughts?

Those are both awful.

DT + 1.07 for Tyreek + 1.02 is probably fine if you like the non-Fournette rookies, but Tyreek is just a throw in there compared to the value of 1.02. Ignore Reek and just try DT for 1.02 if you can, 1.07 >> Reek.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Sataere posted:

Is Tyreek's dynasty value really that low? What sort of numbers is he projected at over the next few years?

I'll admit to not having paid as much attention to him last season, because I avoid players who hit women, but I thought he showed some real WR1 potential. I could very much be wrong though.

A rankings/ADP aggregator I trust has him between 1.07 and 1.08 in value, so consensus seems to be higher on him than I am. He's a gadget player, on a team with Alex Smith at QB, that flashed potential when the rest of the receiving corps was godawful (2016 version of Maclin, Chris Conley, and Albert Wilson). Right around 1/3 of his total from scrimmage yards and touchdowns came from 24 rushing attempts. He was more an RB than WR in college. Just all screams to me that he's not going to be an actual good WR. It may be a lazy comparison, but I can't help but compare him to CPatt. But this is entirely based on things others than watching him play, so I certainly could be wrong.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

I would go with Devontae, personally. He's just CJA's backup right now and looked like warm poop last year

Agreed, and agree that those are the pretty clear cuts (Ben, Thielen, Booker).

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Thwomp posted:

There's no way that happens. The Saints didn't sign Peterson to play second fiddle to Ingram.

(Which sucks as I had Ingram in a dynasty league. Oh well)

Why not? They're paying Ingram more and he's much more versatile than Peterson. AP will take goal line stuff, all the backup carries Hightower had, and will be there to push Ingram if Ingram falters.

Edit: Actually, not sure who is being paid more, looks like might be similar in total and really depend on bonuses and stuff.

sourdough fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Apr 25, 2017

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Not seeing any obvious picks out of the first. Fournette and McCaffrey maybe, but nothing like Elliott last year.

Howard and Engram

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

Howard... Sure if you want someone to cut week 3. Don't draft rookie TEs.

If they just say gently caress it and make Engram a WR, sure in round 13... but Howard is a wasted pick.

Definitely didn't think I'd be taken seriously, haha :) I almost threw in something about look how good Ebron was his rookie year if you want to get hyped for them, but figured that'd be too much.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Can Fournette catch a football?

  • Locked thread