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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Super fun kicker chat. If the value is there the pick isn't bad. I have taken defenses as high as 5th rd, and kicker in the 6th rd in standard lineup formats (q/2r/3wr/te/+-flex) and won leagues. Getting a prime Vinatieri or Ravens defense can be a beautiful thing.
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May 23, 2016 05:58
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RVProfootballer posted:Yeah, my first reaction was drat, can't believe that kind of positional advantage is possible at kicker. Set-it-and-forget-it 7+pts at kicker with negligible risk has value. But I think it is more the effect of the Patriots offense being good under almost any circumstances. Even when they lost Tom Brady of all people Matt Cassel ran the offense fairly well. More or less a consistent offense equals a consistently good kicker. No surprise there.
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May 23, 2016 16:10
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Leperflesh posted:Kickers are weird. They score more (fantasy) points when their teams are bad at getting to the red zone and their coaches believe they're reliable at scoring the long ball, but also score less real life points when their teams are generally bad. Then there's kickers on terrible teams that lose by big margins and will go for it on 4th within FG range because they're down by 21 in the last quarter and need TDs, and then there's teams that are so good they usually just score a TD instead of trying a FG. And then there's those teams that are just good enough to give their kickers several shorter FG attempts, and also not be so far behind in team score that they'd go for the TD on 4th downs inside ~35 yards or so. And finally there's kickers who just get 5 to 7 extra point tries every game because their teams score like crazy and their production isn't relying on FGs anyway. I guess this boils down to what you want in a kicker - do you want a write-in floor value, or do you want someone like Blair Walsh who can score 1 point in two games and 3 in another, but also can score you 20 points a couple of times a year and finish top 3? Personally I want the floor as having to rely on a kicker to boom is really a crap-shoot, and although past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance due to factors beyond their control, there is still something to be said about three straight years of outstanding performance. I would not touch another kicker before any run on them, but Gostkowski's history of consistency makes a good case to buck the trend.
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May 23, 2016 23:47
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RVProfootballer posted:I really don't understand the Bennett hype. Yeah ok Scott Chandler caught a TD that one time, but I'm expecting like back end TE2 numbers from Bennett. He is one of the best all around tight ends in the league. I would not expect him to get Hernandez numbers, but depending on what Belichick decides to do with him I could see a stat line of something like 50/700/6 for this year. Bennett's trouble is that he is also really good in a blocking tight end role, so a lot of times instead of running a route they keep him in as the extra blocker. Probably a TE20ish floor with a TE6ish ceiling?
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May 25, 2016 14:24
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RVProfootballer posted:You think his ceiling is realistically that high, without an injury to Gronk? I guess I just don't see the targets or rz looks being there, but I don't follow the Pats closely either. I also don't know what went down in Chicago, but the fact they let him go, that Bennett didn't get courted by any of the teams legitimately needing a TE, and that he's had one good season that required tons of volume (2014; 2013 was fine too, but certainly not evidence of him being a premier TE) all makes me a bit skeptical. I do yes. He got in John Fox's dog house because he wanted more paper and wanted more targets to legitimize it, which fox did not want to cave in to. No one courted him because no one wanted to give the pick that Chicago wanted knowing the situation, and ended up settling on the pick swap just to move him out of the locker room. Dunno how being in NE will affect him, but he is a big target with good receiver skills (as tall, and slightly heavier than Gronk). I do not see him as Hernandez 2.0, but can be a step below that provided the opportunity and is IMO the third/fourth target on the field and safety valve depending on Dion Lewis's presence. A draft location of TE10-15 (which is an area full of questions right now) is about right for now, waiting to see how he gets used in camp to adjust it.
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May 25, 2016 22:11
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Giodo! posted:Any early keeper thoughts given this setup? Could you clarify the keeper rules? It reads like you can keep 3 from each draft year, but do you mean you can keep 3 total, and the draft year only applies in terms of how long you can keep them?
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May 28, 2016 03:49
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Giodo! posted:Sorry, each season you can keep 3 players from your end of season roster. The year only matters in determining how long you can keep them. You basically get to keep a player a maximum of two times after their first year on your team. Assuming by winning you will draft last in the first round (no confidence in your cornholing) I would go with your original thought of Julio, Cam, and Bell. You are getting three 1st round talents (roughly picks 1, 6, 8 IMO for 2QB) with your first draft position being 10. You do have a resetting keeper clock and Bell is in your last year of keeping - what are your trade window rules? Once the season is done you lose him immediately? Trading during the season? I would be thinking about a swap of some sort so you can keep that first round talent if you have another owner in a similar position with similar value with the intention to keep who you swap for. Also can you do trades for draft picks? Robinson and Palmer are keeper-quality in their draft rounds that you cannot keep. Maybe trades for better picks with the two of them? This is quite complicated for a true analysis on what is best because there are so many variables involved.
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May 28, 2016 14:31
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MrSargent posted:This I can agree with. The QB pool for a 12 team league is deep enough where late round QB drafting is more than acceptable. The gap between QB6 and QB12 is almost nothing. Waiting until (way) later you can still get someone like Dalton, Eli, Carr, even Flacco - IMO all but Dalton have the arrow pointing up for this year in terms of production, and Dalton is a wait-and-see but has decent history.
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Jun 11, 2016 19:24
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Forever_Peace posted:Flacco has never once in his 8-year career finished among the top half of starting QBs in per-game fantasy points. Don't draft Flacco. If you remove his Denver performance as a one-off against a superbowl winning defense he averaged almost 20 points per game before he got injured in .04/yd 4/TD scoring. In the same scoring only 8 QBs broke 20 ppg average. Around 12 QBs then bunch right at 18-20 ppg. Not necessarily saying outright must draft, but that there are lots and lots of options later in the draft that are all in the same relative category.
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Jun 11, 2016 21:14
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89 posted:You guys think there's a big drop off from Julio/Beckham to Hopkins? Hopkins was F'n amazing last year and has been on the rise ever since he got in the league. He also seems to be QB proof. I've got to pick my spot in the draft in a couple of hours. I was gonna go #3 (10 man 0.5 PPR) to try to land Antonio but I don't think that's gonna happen with who's in front of me. ADP currently has him going in the 5ish slot, so if that is your target guy right now then unless you know a guy ahead of you has a hard-on for a specific guy like gurley/DJ that is your mark. Slot 6 looks to be DJ/Gurley/AP right now with the top 4 WRs gone in the first 5 picks
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Jun 24, 2016 00:34
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I'm starting to think that positional scarcity may not be the best indicator for drafting, as it inherently promotes a pure VBD approach that ignores the risks associated with the predictions themselves being wrong. That said I would avoid Forte; his rank is 4.6 and there's no formatting which means his ADP is between 3.6 and 5.6. Furthermore if you look at Forte's value it falls near the bottom of the Robinson-Evans tier. With that in mind I would likely go WR heavy and draft Robinson and possibly a fourth WR from that tier and then focus on getting RB value further down the line. I do not know if this has been asked/answered or not. Are your sheets set in stone no matter what the current pool of players is, or if you removed let's say the top 20 players drafted the calculations would skew the tiers and other numbers creating a completely different view of a draft at an individual point?
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Aug 15, 2016 00:22
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Teemu Pokemon posted:<--- the guy who picked up dak in goontier the day after the draft The other half of this was you dropped Romo to get him!
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Aug 28, 2016 00:08
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MakaVillian posted:Which RB do you guys like at pick 5.05 in a 12-team 3 player keeper league with 0.5 PPR: Yeldon, Jennings, Sims or Riddick? My keepers are ODB, Demaryius and Lamar Miller and in the first round I can reliably pick Maclin for WR3. My next pick is 6.10. What is your team? They all feel like reaches at 5.05 (roughly 8.05 due to keepers) - of the bunch of them first impression was Sims, Jennings, Riddick, Yeldon. It sounds like you are looking for a bye week fill-in RB at this point?
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Sep 2, 2016 00:55
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MrSargent posted:Just want to point out that Sims scored more than Jennings in 0.5PPR last year. And Sims had a much more consistent season, whereas Jennings really got a boost from his last 4-5 games. The problem I have with Jennings is Perkins is there waiting to take over if Jennings stumbles, leaving you with a team backup that won't get much. A pretty big gamble for a pick that should amount to a decent contributor to your team. Sims has a defined role that will get decent points for all 16 games. If there are this many RBs gone to the point of that list being the best available other positions like WR have to have good value here. Chen Kenichi fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Sep 2, 2016 |
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Sep 2, 2016 01:03
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Veritek83 posted:I'm only half paying attention, but I think Perkins has fumbled twice tonight vs. the Pats. I know old man Coughlin is gone, but I gotta think that's going to concern the coaching staff. Agreed, but if the plan is to give him a shot some time they will have him work on ball security in practice. Disappointing to see? Sure is, but I do not see preseason of his rookie year a major deterrent. If it happened in game 5? Yeah dog house.
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Sep 2, 2016 01:12
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RVProfootballer posted:All the talk has been Jennings will be the workhorse this year, as he was the last few games, with no more giving Andre loving Williams carries. So not sure whether we should look at those games as outliers or as closer to what we can hope for if he stays healthy. But I do like Sims too! Jennings should be the workhorse to start the year. My worry is how long he keeps the job. If I have a guarantee he keeps it 16 games then he is the pick of those 4.
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Sep 2, 2016 01:45
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Eddie Lacy, Melvin Gordon, Arian Foster, Paul Perkins were the guys I ended up having the most shares in. WRs were all over the place except for nuke due to keepers so i have him on two rosters. I was targeting others like Keenan Allen and Doug Baldwin but only got Baldwin once. Oh and Denzel Perryman for late value IDP.
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Sep 5, 2016 05:22
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Burfict is a fantasy monster (most pts. per snap played for LBs last year depending on scoring) and definitely an upgrade over Wright, but I would not waste a high waiver claim on him. If that is not an issue then I am making that move. It is not tragic to keep Wright for now as it may take Burfict a week or two to get back to speed, but of the two Burfict is the better fantasy play IMO
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Sep 28, 2016 11:45
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Half PPR. You think offering Fuller, Matt Jones, and Cole Beasley is too much for Hilton? Not at all - unless it is dynasty/keeper and Fuller is a low pick you get the best player for replaceable parts
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Sep 30, 2016 00:41
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Injury woe-is-me for one team - ROFLberger, Foster, Ivory, Langford, LMurray, SSS, DJax. Drafted heavy in week 1 starting RBs, and not a single one is left (DWill being the 5th, also injured btw but known he was only 3 weeks)
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Oct 20, 2016 22:26
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Vargo posted:Is anyone concerned about weather conditions at the Packers/Bears game? Not concerned enough to sit Rodgers, but possibly considering benching Jordy for a different WR with a good weather-free matchup. If GB had a running game to go to sure, but they don't. Jordy will get lots of slants and such so for PPR I would think he is a must start. Standard is more of a question mark though.
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Dec 18, 2016 16:12
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