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Alhazred posted:lovely work for a lovely party.
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Dec 15, 2019 13:07
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SplitSoul posted:The field mattress knows her base.
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Dec 19, 2019 11:47
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Oh, I didn't mean to imply that I was disagreeing, because I'm not - it's just not a word that comes up in conversation a lot.
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Dec 19, 2019 14:32
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Wild Horses posted:am i going insane
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Jan 17, 2020 20:07
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Alhazred posted:We do it to gently caress with you.
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Jan 27, 2020 21:48
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SplitSoul posted:Thorning quit her new job already.
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Feb 7, 2020 21:33
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Cynic Jester posted:That's the one for last place.
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Feb 10, 2020 22:20
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Rust Martialis posted:Danes would agree. 
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Feb 11, 2020 11:24
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Fader Movitz posted:It's pretty dumb to argue about where ground meat in the most basic shape comes from imo. But then again this ad seems like a honey trap for bad twitter takes. teen witch posted:A lot of the English language articles I’ve read mention that it seems to be manufactured outrage, and fragile bigots of all stripes take to that like oil to fire. Weird how “facts, not feelings” suddenly doesn’t apply to literal facts that offended certain types of feelings!
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Feb 14, 2020 17:18
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I would've thought you'd be old enough to remember Perker spillet, as it was called then, which Jan Elhøj and Simon Jul Jørgensen commisioned for uland.net? DR just published a retrospective (which translates relatively using the usual suspects).
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Feb 15, 2020 17:31
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There's something rotten in the state of Denmark, when the social democrats out-neoliberalism and out-racist the neoliberalists and racists.
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Feb 18, 2020 14:18
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Feb 25, 2020 18:52
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Redczar posted:Hey Scandinavian thread! Sorry to barge into your thread, but I was wondering if you could point me in the direction of some information about your healthcare systems. I think the other Scandinavian countries differ slightly in details, but it's broadly the same.
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Feb 27, 2020 21:53
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SplitSoul posted:The Master Race
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Mar 6, 2020 10:51
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Welp, Danish PM just closed down the country. I ain't leaving home for the next many weeks, so gotta find out how online deliveries work.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:47
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THE BAR posted:So one of the things the Danish government wants to push through today, is to let the police break into people's homes without a warrant. Is it to take back some of the yeast people have been hoarding, or is it just another excuse to harass the poor?
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Mar 12, 2020 11:17
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THE BAR posted:https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2020-03-12-her-er-lovene-regeringen-vil-have-hastet-igennem-vil-kunne-tvinge-folk-i
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Mar 12, 2020 11:23
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Nice piece of fish posted:Yeah, it's a pretty unprecedented probable overreach of the authority in Smittevernloven, but notice nobody is complaining too loud about that... yet. It's gonna be interesting to see how this pans out over the next month or so. Still important to keep an eye on it, though! I was a bit worried yesterday because I hadn't had a chance to shop since Sunday, but my mom shopped before going to work, and after talking on the phone with my boss this morning she agreed that since I'm in two risk-groups (cancer patient and type-2 diabetes haver), I should stay home and then we'll have a talk on the phone in two weeks to see how things are going then. So I'm basically voluntarily self-isolating, although it's frankly not that different from my usual life since I've always been insular.
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Mar 12, 2020 17:47
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THE BAR posted:It didn't pass, so that's one less thing to worry about, for now. EDIT: It did, but it got adjusted a bit so that the authorities cannot enter into peoples private homes without a warrant. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 13, 2020 11:18
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Katt posted:Russia: ????
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Mar 22, 2020 11:45
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SplitSoul posted:Mette Frederiksen just extended the lockdown until April 13.
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Mar 23, 2020 16:51
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KozmoNaut posted:And SSI wants access to everyone's mobile data, in order to track compliance with the isolation guidelines and laws. Not because I intend to move anywhere, as I've voluntarily self-isolated because of my health, but because what about after?
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Mar 23, 2020 19:02
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SplitSoul posted:As a complete surprise to no-one, CEPOS is now advocating mass death to protect Number.
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Mar 26, 2020 13:55
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Katt posted:Scandinavia Corona fight chart: Interestingly, one way to show this is to use logarithmic scales to plot things, although it helps to watch the video that explains the graph, and also covers some caveats: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
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Mar 29, 2020 11:19
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Based on those numbers holding, and this being the exponential part of a logistics curve that tops out at 60% of the population having been infected, as well as the following: Also, the case ratio in China turned out to be much closer to 1%, and WHO estimates it'll be 0.3% to 1%. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 20:53
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A report released about a week ago posted:Based on knowledge from China about the clinical course of COVID-19, the State Serum Institute has prepared a prognosis for disease development in Denmark. It is estimated that 80% of those infected have mild to moderate disease. 15% will need hospital treatment and 5% will need intensive hospital care. Based on this knowledge, the forecast in Denmark is that a total of 11,600 patients are expected to need hospitalization during the epidemic period, which is expected to last 12 weeks. Of these, 2,900 patients are expected to require intensive care.
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Mar 29, 2020 21:14
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PederP posted:I have a gut feeling (sorry) that we'll fare better than most other countries due to our culture and social structure. If there's any truth to the hypothesis that viral load and exposure to other infected during incubation is the main factor determining how severe the symptoms and progression will be, we're in luck. We don't socialize much. We don't visit our parents/grandparents much. Our public transportation is less crowded than many other countries. We try hard to minimize the duration of hospitalization. And so forth. V. Illych L. posted:i think we really just don't have much slack in our healthcare systems and dozens of medics getting sick would leave us with our systems overwhelmed already Report from earlier posted:When the epidemic with COVID-19 peaks, we must also be ready to treat patients with other acute and life-threatening conditions. That will be other patients with severe and catastrophic breathing and circulation failure. We have ensured that there is also the capacity to treat this group and the total number of intensive places with respirators, combined with additional respirators from stores, will thus be 1,260 in the public health system in Denmark. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 21:34
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I'm going off the 60% need to get infected for herd immunity to kick in and the disease subsiding on its own. Obviously that's gonna result in far more deaths than only 0.2% of the population getting it. 11K cases would mean we're gonna peak within two to three weeks, and the disease never reappearing as control measures are relaxed. Which would imply a standing quarantine order for anyone crossing the border, probably lasting until this time next year when it has burned through every other country or someone has made a vaccine. And yes, the report I've been quoting from also mentions it'll peak in week 16. Measles spreads through coughing and sneezing, and needs ~95% of the population vaccinated for herd immunity to be achieved - have a look at what happened in the states when enough anti-vaxxers got their kids out of vaccination systems, which brought herd-immunity under 90% in local areas. Also - one thing about measles is that, if you get it as a kid you've got a pretty good chance of surviving, whereas adults who get it succumb to it more often. PederP posted:I absolutely do not think we have any degree of control. If we manage to weather this with a non-catastrophic result it will be because of sheer luck. This is NOT an actual plague in spite of the fact that some idiots on social media call it that, goods and services can still be exchanged although there is naturally some backlog accruing. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 23:26
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Alhazred posted:The reason why we have measles vaccine was that not only did kids die, they were especially at risk because their immune system was not fully developed. Letting yourself willingly be infected is insane because you have no idea how the disease will affect your body. And even if you survive the process and become immun that doesn't mean that you stop carry the disease to others. I'm voluntarily self-isolating, exactly because I'm immunocompromised and a newly diagnosed diabetic.
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Mar 30, 2020 10:58
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PederP posted:This is a good strategy by the PM - promise that we can start reopening in 14 days if the spread remains within capacity. That's going to make lots of people super-duper angry at anyone who isn't observing the guidelines. And if the most likely (IMO) outcome occurs - that this is not at all under control, she can point the finger at those who failed to act as they were asked, and blame the stricter measures on those people. "I really wanted to normalize society and save the economy, but I can't because of all those people who didn't do what we asked. Now please go out and shame them for me, will you?". Her speech this time especially, as it emphasized how it is in our best interests if we choose to have a little carrot as a treat, or we default to the stick. Hooray for the anti-social and misanthropic ways of living that I've been practicing all my life. Also, sorry to hear about your father. I got diagnosed with cancer about 4 years ago - going through it was the hardest thing I've ever done in my life. At present I don't know whether I'll be doing stuff in June regarding my otherwise-regular CT scans (since CT-scanners are understandably quite busy), because I'm immune-compromised due to the high-dose chemo- and radiation-therapy I got. If you need to talk with someone, or just vent, in The Goon Doctor subforums there's a cancer thread that you're welcome in, friend.
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Mar 30, 2020 17:28
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SplitSoul posted:I knew she'd buckle to the number ghouls, just didn't expect it to be this quick.
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Mar 30, 2020 18:51
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A Buttery Pastry posted:AFAIK, the study that argued hydroxycholorquine as a treatment was, let's say, scientifically compromised. They basically discarded the test subjects which didn't fit the conclusion.  SplitSoul posted:She announced easing of the lockdown around when the epidemic is expected to peak. People are going to take it as an excuse to resume business as usual, mark my words.
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Mar 30, 2020 20:44
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PederP posted:Yes, it was not a study to draw conclusions from. But there have been other attempts to use it, and it's been used against SARS in the past. Also, weirdly, my wife was asked in January (when noone expectd this to hit Denmark) to get her prescription from Rigshospitalet and not her GP. They also pestered her really hard to try reducing her dosage by half. Could be coincidence, but I think there is a least a subset of doctors who think this has some kind of effect against SARS/NCOV. She is worried that the worldwide craze for this medication means she won't be able to get it when she runs out soon. Her Lupus gets a lot worse without it - joints and lungs in particular. We study these things with empiric methods and then have them independently replicated. A particular study in a particular paper is only as good as the peer-review it's gotten when it was processed for the paper, which hopefully has a high impact factor for its field, as well as the number of citations it has in studies published in (potentially) different papers, with high impact factors for their respective fields. THAT is science, anything else is just untested hypotheses. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Mar 30, 2020 |
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Mar 30, 2020 20:47
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PederP posted:Absolutely, but in a crisis, sometimes science comes after the fact. The anecdotal results of desperate measures are often what prompts the proper scientific studies. I am not advocating that our doctors should abandon science and start prescribing medicine based on gut feelings. But they do have the privilege, and responsibility, to take chances in relation to the situation at hand. A doctor is allowed to prescribe medicine (within certain boundaries) even for conditions it is not approved for. This is good. Scientific studies are a core aspect of medicine, but it is not the only relevant concern. An untested hypothesis is a perfectly valid basis for a treatment - if the alternative is to simply let the patient die.
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Mar 30, 2020 21:30
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Leave the statistical modeling to people who understand statistics. I know I'm not an expert, but I understand just enough of it to know when statistics are being used wrong (hint: it's always easier to falsify science than it is to do the research), and that's all I'm seeing in this thread. To quote someone who does, 98%±5% of spreadsheet users don't know what's happening. EDIT: The entire herd-immunity argument is one that was made by the British government. Anyone who's paid the slightest bit of attention knows that herd immunity doesn't work when there's no vaccine. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 16:01
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Nothing about that article is surprising in any way, considering that the containment phase of the disease was dropped on the 11th of March, at which point the government switched to a mitigation strategy; something that is well-covered in both the previous and current report from sst.dk EDIT: I'm curious, did you read the part where he explains, quite explicitly, that the alternative to what we're doing now is quarantine camps ala China and Diamond Princess off the coast of Japan, which are absolutely worse-case scenarios? BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 16:19
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Also, since we are talking about statistics, the only dataset currently available which includes self-reported cases of possible COVID-19 seems to suggest that upwards of 50% of people who get COVID-19 are completely or almost asymptomatic.Article above posted:DeCODE, a subsidiary of US biotech company Amgen, has so far tested about 9,000 self-selected people. And yes, I absolutely get it - it would've been terrific if our governments had reacted to this as soon as possible. However, hindsight isn't going to get us anywhere. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 16:32
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PederP posted:Oh, I agree. I don't believe containment is a viable strategy in the long-term. I do believe containment/slowdown is the best strategy at this point, however, because we need more time to learn and prepare. That makes the "it's up to you whether you want the carrot, or you default to the stick"-speech I outlined earlier, along with the preparations for limiting gatherings to a maximum of 2 people make some amount of sense - because without that strategy, it doesn't seem to make sense why they would prepare for the worst and then make it up to the populace to self-police to this degree. A Buttery Pastry posted:Admittedly I did forget to adjust the total number of infected based on our low growth rates, which massively cuts down on the number of deaths. Like: All of that assumes that you've done due diligence and figured out your input data by plotting it against a sampling error of N (say, 1, as phk used, because we're dealing with such low numbers). A Buttery Pastry posted:I'm not sure why quarantine camps are an absolutely worst-case scenario? That, in turn, results in a much bigger pressure on the healthcare system than an effective mitigation strategy. It's still better than doing plain nothing - but only by degree, not by kind. V. Illych L. posted:quarantine camps entail a complete and likely irreversible departure from liberal governance so we are a bit uneasy about it I'm pretty sure I just puked a little from even using those ugly words.
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Apr 2, 2020 18:54
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SplitSoul posted:
 PederP posted:This is a very dumb calculation. It's rather ironic to have CEPOS ignore the effects of the invisible hand in the economic downturn, and attributing to the government an ability to shutdown and revive the economy at-will. Yeah, reopening schools, cinemas, bars and hairdressers will bring back lost exports, convince companies across all sectors that they need to rehire everyone they fired, instill faith in consumers and reignite their spending habits, tourism will boom once more and noone will be worried about the risk of infection and stay the f... at home. BlankSystemDaemon fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 19:51
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A Buttery Pastry posted:That sounds like a lot of work dude. I've presented my assumptions, people can take or leave the conclusions. I'm just presenting an alternative scenario to the rosy picture painted by authorities and saying things might get worse than they assume. I mean, it's not like the last few decades have given people much reason to trust the establishment to not just pretend everything is fine to protect number or to at least massively downplay an issue. See climate change, the Euro.  A Buttery Pastry posted:Alright, hadn't considered the false positives issue. I believe China has a three-tiered approach to confirming positives though, which should cut down on the number of false positives?
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Apr 2, 2020 22:27
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