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Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
So, what sort of October surprise should we be expecting?

If Trump continues on as he has been (and there's no reason to think that he won't), someone would have to release something huge as a last minute hail mary.

Whether or not it's real doesn't make a difference. Between the stance wikileaks has taken, decades of Republican fear mongering/opposition research and the alt-right, someone's going to release something to try and salvage this for Trump.

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Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!

Does this mean we have have faith in the average american voter again?

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
So, what happens if Gawker (I guess univision now?) wins on appeal? The damage seems to be pretty much done, but it's widely expected they'll win on appeal.

Also, how much did Gawker ignoring a judges take down order of the video cause all of this? Between that, gloating about doing that on their website and what they said in open court, I can't imagine there was anything more they could do to damage themselves in that lawsuit.

This is a tabloid being taken down to be sure, but I don't like the implications of it.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
So, I imagine we'll see a bit of a bump for Trump in the next week (I know we'd like it to be bad news for him from here to November, but we're not that lucky). It'll be curious to see if it breaks his traditional ceiling of support that's been stuck in the low 40s, and how much support he gains is coming from Hillary vs. the two third parties.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So he's going to go into September without anything planned? What is he doing?

If he's actually taking the advice of others (and that's a big if) he'll lay low for a while. The Dem strategy has thus far been to let Trump hang himself, and prior polls have shown him doing a wonderful job of it.

Now he's released a few statements that can be taken anyway the reader wants them to be taken, he has a couple of polls showing his numbers on the mend and people are talking about his pivot towards the center.

Meanwhile the news outlets are talking about another 15,000 emails that were hidden and some complaints about the Clinton foundation. If he's actually trying to turn this thing around, he'll let Hillary have the news cycle this week, and he'll lay low for a bit until he tries to re-invent himself in time for the debate.

Of course he could also melt down at any moment, but this is just a guess.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!

Geostomp posted:

So exactly what you'd expect from a bigoted rich blowhard run by open white supremacists? He's the gift that keeps on taking.

I'm gonna be real thankful for those quotes if they get a lot of play on the news. They may well take away from what was shaping up to be a bad news week for Clinton.

Was there any follow up to Trump's canceled events?

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!

DemeaninDemon posted:

The only people who care are the media who want hot takes and people who would crawl over rusty razors to vote against Hillary.

Trustworthiness is a serious issue for Clinton. Like it or not, the 24 years of non-stop smearing against her by the republicans has taken root in a large part of the population, many who aren't thrilled about either candidate.

Thus far Clinton's campaign has been real smart about having people look at Trump as he was hogging the spot light. If the light gets shined on her, the media and many voters will see that she can do no right and suddenly the "close horse race" narrative is back on.

We just have to hope that Trump keeps liking the sound of his own voice and that Hillary kills it on the first debate.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
Fox news is in a really weird position. On the one hand, they have a completely captive audience propping them up and willing to take what they say as the word of god. On the other hand, that audience is also literally dying, and maintaining it is making future potential audiences hate the network.

They'll either need to introducing some centrist programming at a slow enough pace so as to not piss of their core audience while they transition, or start duking it out with the other alt-right news sources for control of the crazies.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
https://twitter.com/JohnBerman/status/768467111941472256

Seems his base really doesn't like the flip on immigration Trump seems to be starting.

It would be the best of both worlds, if he managed to piss off half the country by being bigoted and then piss off the other half by walking that back.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!

zoux posted:

The 2/2 in that tweet is Steve King saying that he doesn't think that that's what is going to happen.


What's going to happen is that every surrogate, every flack and Trump himself will constantly be vague about policy answers and specifics, say they will have details out soon, and continue to let people project whatever they think is good immigration policy on to him. He's trying to walk the razor's edge here.

Let me dream of a better world.

But yea, he's going to be vague and hope that people will simply hear what they want to hear, but seeing any amount of nervousness about Trump in the ~33% of the country who will vote for him and only him is a good thing.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!

Probably the best joke to come out of the 2012 election.

With Trump in Mexico, it's clear he's going to pull some sort of stunt to try to underscore his "credentials" to his base, but what happens if he does something so off the wall he winds up arrested or otherwise causes a serious international incident? There may be some small part of his mind that thinks slapping Nieto in front of the media is just the thing his campaign needs.

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Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
I really wonder what the full ramifications of the Trump campaign is going to be in regards to future US elections. "you can spout random nonsense that changes from minute to minute and you'll still get about 40% of the vote" is a drat scary lesson for an actual, competent politician to take.

gently caress, I can't believe what I just watched.

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