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There's no loving way that the Chinese and Russians are offering to sell weapons to a US treaty ally currently embroiled in a territorial dispute with one of them.
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Sep 14, 2016 05:32
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They won't sell weapons to the Philippines for the same reason that the US doesn't sell weapons to countries with close ties to Russia or China; it's basically saying "Hey, geopolitical rivals! Come and analyze all our military gear!" Not that the US has trouble doing this already for most Chinese and Russian equipment, but still.
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Sep 14, 2016 22:45
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Mm yes an Alliance with Russia, a country with no significant ability to project power from its borders, with one lovely carrier that needs a tugboat escort, whose closest military installation is a supply depot in Vietnam, is definitely a viable alternative to the US when it comes to a military alliance for the Philippines He's bluffing
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Sep 26, 2016 15:51
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CronoGamer posted:Not that I ever like to offer up a defense of Duterte, but he did expressly say he means trade and commerce alliances (like RCEP, I presume) and not military alliances. How this squares with his threats to buy arms from Moscow and Beijing, I don't know. Duterte is not the first lovely leader who thought that he could scare the US by threatening to go to its rivals, it happened pretty much all the time during the cold war. The difference now is that the balance of power has swung so dramatically in the USA's favor that aside from some sort of symbolic poke in the eye like the RCEP there isn't anything concrete that Duterte can realistically do to "pivot" to anyone BUT the US. Sure, he could tear up the treaty if he wants to, and that's the Philippines prerogative, but he would gain absolutely nothing from doing so aside from it being virtually guaranteed that he becomes China's bitch.
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Sep 26, 2016 22:26
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blackguy32 posted:I'm guessing the Philippines will turn to China or Russia if that happens. The comments are what you would expect with people saying that withdrawing aid would actually hurt the United States. Neither China nor Russia are viable alternatives to the US and the US knows it. tekz posted:That's because USPol is full or morons. Thanks for the link. Wikileaks is actually really bad and has been for the past few years. The 2009 cable leaks are still good though.
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Sep 28, 2016 07:02
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gradenko_2000 posted:Human rights organizations and the UN were concerned about extrajudicial killings well before the talk of a China pivot. And if I recall correctly Duterte threatened to create his own better UN in response so I don't see how anyone can take his threats to ally with China seriously.
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Sep 28, 2016 07:44
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The people of the Philippines must be thrilled that Duterte is openly admitting that he intends to become a Chinese vassal.
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Sep 28, 2016 18:18
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Vyacheslav posted:Is there a point at which the Americans would was their hands and break the alliance? How important are the Philippines strategically? Pretty strategically important as they form part of the island chain that forms a colossal military barrier for the Chinese, but even if they weren't, they're a US treaty ally. The US would never break it because that's a really bad message to all its other treaty allies.
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Sep 28, 2016 21:34
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I would assume Chinese style "are country strong and prosperous because we have lots of big malls"
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Sep 29, 2016 02:38
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Oh my god.
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Sep 30, 2016 01:55
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Y-Hat posted:C'mon, CIA, set up a coup in the Philippines. You know, for old times' sake. You haven't lost that old Cold War know-how, have ya? The US is so powerful in the 21st century that the CIA doesn't really need to do that anymore. Plus Duterte is hardly the first lovely leader to use the "And you are lynching negroes" fallacy.
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Sep 30, 2016 04:53
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Y-Hat posted:I was 95% joking. In any case, I don't see a coup, CIA-backed or not, happening unless these postures to Russia and China become more than that. Even then, the US government would have to think that something harmful can come out of actual alliances. You're severely overestimating the degree to which A) China or Russia are willing/capable of supporting an alliance with the Philippines, and B) China and Russia can actually meaningfully threaten the United States
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Sep 30, 2016 06:11
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nopantsjack posted:This is adorable. What was the most recent CIA backed coup out of curiosity
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Oct 1, 2016 13:17
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Huffington Post and its lookalikes have hosted propaganda for lovely governments for a long time, including Russia and China, so it isn't surprising they'd do the same for Duterte.
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Oct 4, 2016 03:14
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:So much for the Asia Pivot. Meh, it'll happen with or without the Philippines. Duterte is acting like a psycho but pretty much ever major non-Chinese power in the region is still a close ally of the US. If they have to the US will make do without bases in the Philippines, it would just be more annoying. Also just see how long it takes for China to do something stupid and drive Duterte back to the US (this is a question of when, not if)
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Oct 7, 2016 23:13
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I readily believe that Duterte is popular domestic-policy wise (as vile as that policy is) but find it much harder to believe that his foreign policy conduct is at all popular. I thought that Filipinos were generally fond of the US and of the treaty. Certainly moreso than China. Am I wrong or is it one of those "His foreign policy sucks but the drug stuff is more important to the average voter" things?
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Oct 8, 2016 04:47
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Squalid posted:Well which do you think is the more valuable the the Phillipines? A few guano covered rocks or a sleek modern train? If China is willing to offer it it seems like a reasonable deal to me... It's China. They'll get a train that looks sleek and modern but is actually inferior to Japanese or European models and it will be built on a railroad to nowhere.
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Oct 9, 2016 04:24
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LORD OF BOOTY posted:so, uh, what stats should we trust There are no trustable stats when it comes to China.
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Oct 15, 2016 21:28
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People involved in finance and business are pathologically incapable of thinking past the current quarter which is why you may remember all those charts in 2010 projecting China to have a gdp of $100 trillion by 2050
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Oct 16, 2016 06:28
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Yes but you seem to have some kind of bug up your butt about china making anything you say about the subject suspect as well. Tell me more about The Chinese Century
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Oct 16, 2016 19:33
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sincx posted:Holy poo poo. The mad man actually did it. How many sharks are there in the SCS and how many did Duterte jump over? Ehh, as long as the treaty is still in place and US bases are still in the Philippines he hasn't quite yet put his money where his mouth is
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Oct 20, 2016 19:05
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CommieGIR posted:All signs point to him threatening to rip the treaties up. Sure, he'll have to find a way to push US bases out, but he's basically done everything else no one could have foreseen, why not that? Threatening isn't really the same as doing. I mean sure, he might, but that would actually be far more severe than anything he's done today or before today.
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Oct 20, 2016 19:11
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I can't imagine the Philippine military or foreign policy establishment are pleased about all this Edit: Hell I'd be making GBS threads my goddamn pants if I were a Filipino executive
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Oct 20, 2016 19:23
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Sinteres posted:China would lose its mind if the US tried to base in Vietnam too. It would escalate tensions a lot at the very least, and probably lead China to take some strong actions elsewhere in response. Imagine if Mexico decided to host a Chinese base. I know you probably didn't intend it this way but this is the exact same rhetoric you hear from PRC apologists whining that China's neighbours host US bases. "What if China hosted a base in Mexico?!?!?" The difference, of course, being that Mexico has no interest in hosting a Chinese base and even if they did, China doesn't have the logistical capacity to support it.
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Oct 20, 2016 20:12
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sincx posted:It all depends on this: just how soft are these soft loans? lol if you think that China gave free money Sinteres posted:As China gets stronger, their opinion on what happens in their part of the world matters a lot more, and it becomes more difficult to introduce new strategic elements in their neighborhood that are contrary to what they'll "allow," at least if we aren't willing to accept some level of risk of blowback. Sure, Mexico won't allow China basing rights, and China's not in a position to exploit them yet if they did, but if a Mexican Duterte suddenly got the idea that he liked China more, there's no way we'd sit there and do nothing while China built up forces in Mexico. Several points: 1) China has probably peaked in how powerful it's going to get. Economically it is at best plateauing and then stagnating and at worst a recession or crash is on the horizon. Militarily their ability to project power is still largely limited to their littoral waters and they still can't build a decent engine worth a drat. Demographically they are already in decline, and that decline is going to get worse and worse with each passing year. 2) Vietnam isn't some sort of weak Puerto Rico. Vietnam is a significant land power in its own right, and the last time the Chinese invaded the Vietnamese handed them their asses. 3) With that in mind, you're significantly overestimating China's position in East Asia. Even if it's "the biggest" regional power, it's surrounded by great powers and middle powers on all sides, with the world's sole superpower backing them up. You seem to think that China has a preponderance of power in its own neighbourhood similar to how the US has in the Western Hemisphere when that's simply not true; the balance of power is tilted so heavily against China that the loving Philippines batting its eyelashes at them is considered a foreign policy coup. If Vietnam decided to give the US full basing rights there isn't a goddamn thing that the Chinese can do aside from try to bully them via trade and bitch and moan about it. The Vietnamese old guard is a far more significant obstacle to US basing rights than China is. Ceiling fan posted:If Vietnam and the Philippines swap which superpower backs them in an attempt to get more baggage free relationship, I know who's coming out ahead in that deal. China is not a superpower.
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Oct 20, 2016 21:11
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"This'll show those yankee bastards" Duterte said to himself while pouring boiling chinese white tea onto his groin
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Oct 21, 2016 00:09
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It's really bizarre then that he apparently thinks that the US looks down on him and China doesn't.
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Oct 23, 2016 08:49
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Darkman Fanpage posted:Has Pope Benedict said anything regarding Duterte's killing spree? I'm sure the pope would condemn blatant violations of human rights in a predominately Catholic nation but I haven't seen anything about it. He'll start his own, better Catholic Church, and invite Russia and China
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Oct 29, 2016 18:22
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Expect a massive baby shitfit soon
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Nov 1, 2016 04:46
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NewMars posted:It means that instead of being linked to the value of a country's national resources, like oil or some such, they're being repaid in the form of Chinese money. If the exchange rate relative to the Chinese RMB tanks, your debt magnifies horrifically. Note: It's virtually guaranteed to tank even if the Chinese aren't engineering a devaluation as I post this (they are)
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Nov 4, 2016 20:04
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Duterte hasn't actually done anything to seriously abrogate the alliance, all he's done is talk poo poo and he isn't the first dictator to think it can get what it wants from the US by threatening to do so.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:12
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Squalid posted:If the Chinese devalue their currency wouldn't ' that make the debt easier to pay off? You're right, I misread the post in question as "If the RMB tanks"
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Nov 4, 2016 20:27
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The Philippines used to be a US colony but that's not exactly "recent." The most "recent" thing barring the fact that Duterte has always disliked the US is that they told him his extrajudicial mass murder was hosed up.
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Nov 5, 2016 11:09
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Did popping my boils cure my bubonic plague?
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Nov 28, 2016 05:22
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Bye-bye, America! ... The Philippines does not need your money. China will provide so many! He's been saying this for like half a year now
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Dec 16, 2016 22:14
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So, uh, I guess this is the Trump effect. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-defence-idUSKBN15A18Z?il=0
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Jan 27, 2017 08:36
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MrNemo posted:In fairness the last one is looking prescient with the US now pulling out of involvement and influence in East Asia. What?
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Feb 23, 2017 22:36
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The TPP would have been really cool and good if it had gone through but the US doesn't suddenly become a bit player who is "withdrawing" without it. The military components of the pivot are still in place as are the diplomatic ones. Hell, I've always been bothered by even calling it a "pivot" considering the US has been the most powerful actor in the region since the Second World War and the notion of a "pivot" implies that the US presence is new.
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Feb 24, 2017 01:08
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Apparently Trump wants to do a bunch of bilateral trade deals in the region anyway so in the long run the demise of the TPP might not mean all that much.
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Feb 24, 2017 02:55
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