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Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Ice Phisherman posted:

Continued from the previous thread:


I asked PJ about this. Seeing as she's reliably predicted the arc of the election over and over again I thought I'd ask her what she thought a Trump loss would look like. When I asked her this was her prediction:


To me, a trained political scientist, this is a hard pill to swallow. The only thing that gets me to accept this as a possibility is that PJ has been reliably correct over and over again. I had no idea where this election was going or why it got where it was for months. We'd all just arrive at bizarre outcomes over and over again and the only person who I've found (so far and so far in the past) who has predicted the election with any degree of sustained accuracy has been PJ. I went back and read some of her earlier predictions. It seemed crazy at the time. The above seems crazy to me now, but not out of the question like I thought just a few months ago.

It's my belief that Trump is a mentally ill person who believes his own bullshit and has ridden a political wave to where he is now. If I accept PJ's prediction as true then enough crazy people are going to listen to Trump that if/when he loses that there are going to be sporadic acts of right wing terrorism. My original prediction was that time would be the greatest limiting factor as we're now just shy of a month away. While that might not mean a Mondale wipeout, him acting like a crazy person and inciting his followers to violence doesn't have such a strict time limit on it as people are still going to listen to him, though the remaining ones are going to grow increasingly angry and disconnected from reality as each event of violence leaves fewer and fewer of them.

The reason why I think it'll fizzle out in the end is that like TapTheForwardAssist said, people are mostly comfortable right now. They're going to be angry, but only the craziest true believers will do anything about it. The rest will just talk poo poo.


If all of this happens as laid out though it means we're heading for a political realignment. Trump is the result (some may say end result, but I'm not convinced) of the GOP and the right feeding their voters a steady diet of fear, hate and paranoia for generations. Most politicians never believed this. Those that did were outliers. But their voters did, or at least enough of them. Dogwhistle racism is not only a way to be racist without being called one, but dogwhistling is also a training tool. It helps prepare for actual commands. Trump went from dogwhistle racism to actual racism and his followers are eating it up because "he tells it like it is" and "isn't afraid to be politically incorrect".

My only hope is that if PJ is correct, that it goes further, smashes the GOP and we can have a total realignment. The GOP in a few years becomes a party that I could see myself voting for because they're no longer racist, sexist, homophobic, wealth hording or bedroom invading. Maybe they're a little lovely, but I'd no longer be trapped voting for democrats because they're not totally incompetent and abusive.

I had my own posts on this subject in the last thread, though I'm nowhere near as familiar with this as Prester Jane or people actually trained in this so take their word on this over mine. I just hope that, if more Malheurs happen after the election, that they go, well, more or less like the first one did, minus the damage to sacred native land and artifacts and stuff.

I posted:

Most of Y'all Qaeda was also too chickenshit to actually do anything when the poo poo hit the fan; the moment the FBI dropped the hammer, almost all of them surrendered and went home. The only exceptions were Finicum (who was probably panicking and/or legitimately thought he could escape/shoot his way out, and was also a special level of awful person, what with his effective child slavery and all) and the poor guy at the end who, in addition to already having mental issues and being depressed, was primarily left behind because the other assholes couldn't stand him and pushed him out of the vehicle as they left, leaving him suicidal after everything collapsed and he spent several days trapped with the other three remaining assholes (who likewise caved pretty easily for all their harsh words). And I guess the Bundy father perhaps, but he didn't get a chance to do anything because he was an idiot who took a plane and was nabbed at the airport because he had no protection or guns after disembarking. As a whole, the movement got together, felt empowered by their guns and numbers, threw their weight around as long as they met no resistance, and then crumbled the moment real consequences (beyond destroying their insides with lovely food and crapping in a hole outside) loomed.

Now, I'm admittedly not an expert on this sort of thing, but from what I can see, most of Trump's supporters are the same. There are almost definitely some people out there who are truly dangerous, but, well, they'd probably be dangerous anyway, I think. There will probably be horrible things happening post-election (we've already seen that Trump's stirred up enough hate to cause the hate crime rate to increase), but I doubt there's going to be an epidemic of McVeigh-style attacks or anything. Most of his supporters are loudmouthed assholes who mostly just yell at people on the Internet or occasionally on the street.

Hopefully, at least. I dunno, maybe one of the people who studies this sort of thing professionally will have a different opinion.

Bonus me and EHF making fun of Bundy and Finicum:

quote:

Epic High Five posted:

Also the Bundys are the biggest welfare queens in the country that aren't incorporated
That's one of the things that's so hilarious to me about them and Finicum becoming conservative idols; they are the "welfare queen" stereotype they so often attack. Like, besides using them for (illegal, as far as I'm aware) labor, the many kids Finicum fostered got him absurd amounts of money, which is also the only reason his business stayed afloat; without the subsidized child labor, his farm was completely and utterly unprofitable.

And yet he's held up as a conservative icon and hero. It's ridiculous

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 08:21 on Oct 1, 2016

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Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
I might just be optimistic, but I'm feeling like Hillary's going to get two terms. I mean, the Republicans might learn their lesson here, but you'd have thought they'd do that in 2012, and instead we got Trump. Their big positions like opposition to gay marriage, drugs, trans people's existence, and abortion are only going to get more unpopular in the meantime, too, particularly with fuckups like McCrory doing their thing and screwing over their states. If they don't ditch the albatross of social conservatism they shouldn't be able to recover any time soon, and with things like Mylan and insulin providers killing people for profit economic conservatism isn't doing too hot either. They need to reform or at least realign, and with the religious right and other social conservatives making up a sizable portion of their base that might not be possible. Also, four years of Hillary, coming after her saving the country from having to exist under Donald Trump, will hopefully show people that she's not that bad, at least compared to the alternative.

And, well, like you say, people will remember this election. They'll remember the racism, the sexism, the hate crimes, the insults aimed at veterans, the gently caress ups, things like Trump's deal with Cuba. And they'll remember that the Republicans endorsed it all, letting it all happen and frequently outright defending it. That should result in a lasting shift for at least some people, I think.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Ice Phisherman posted:

I think people will remember it, but also remember that poor whites are shrinking by about 1% a year currently. In four years the republicans may not be able to win the white house with the numbers they have. In 2024 they may not be able to win the presidency at all and will only be relevant at the state and local level until they bring in some new blood.

To put that in perspective when GWB won in 2000 he had roughly 16% more votes as a baseline. The republicans are not replenishing their numbers and instead losing further numbers by driving minority voters not only away but to the democrats, damaging themselves twice as hard. It's like that the party found out they're bleeding and instead of patching it decides to cut themselves more and deeper.

Oh, right, that too. Demographics are loving them harder and harder.

They're going to be hard to oust from state governments (though a liberal Supreme Court just outright ruling against gerrymandering might help, and is one of my dreams for a Hillary presidency), but the Oval Office might be forever beyond their reach soon if they don't do something.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Lightning Knight posted:

Libertarianism doesn't do well when it gets exposed to any kind of mass scrutiny. It's an ideology built on a house of cards and predicated on the assumption that you're too privileged or stupid to care.

That is the fundamental problem for conservatives. You can pay lip service to fiscal conservatism and libertarianism all you like but people don't actually want that poo poo en masse. What they want, in the end, is welfare for whites and upholding the status quo against women, LGBT people, and ethnic minorities.

There's just not a whole lot of places for the Republican Party to go. Theyre kind of stuck.

Yeah, even the standard old, anti-"communism" Republican voter would be livid if you so much as touched their Medicare. Heck, my grandmother, despite being profoundly anti-Hillary and being solidly Republican in a lot of ways (kind of racist, hates gay people, etc.), is horrified by things like the medicine price-gouging and was not only already of the opinion that the government needs to stop that sort of thing, but a surprisingly easy sell on the idea that the way European nations handle healthcare and medical price control is worth consideration. It's probably in large part because she's not entirely FYGM and, requiring insulin herself and having a diabetic grandchild (not me), can sympathize quite a bit here, but still. As long as you can show them how it benefits them and don't call it socialism (or at least don't until after you've convinced them), Republicans can be pretty open to it in a lot of ways.

I'm really, really curious what's going to happen to the Republican part going forward. Do they just accept that they Presidency is almost guaranteed to be out of reach and focus on solidifying their hold elsewhere? Rage and further alienate people every four years? Try to actually change/become something else even though it'll probably significantly weaken them in the short term? Nothing seems like it should appeal to them, though I imagine that most who are currently in power will be selfish and try to keep what they have as long as possible, even if it dooms the future of the party.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Bushiz posted:

Why y'all acting like the veep debate is going to put be anything. It'll be boring on the scale of the bush/Kerry debates and no one will pay attention because Donald will probably try to fight someone in a wheelchair on the night of.

Well, Kaine seems like a clever guy and Pence is a moron and monster, so if he's been doing his preparation then Kaine should make a fool of his opponent. It might not be big, but it should be entertaining, at least.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

DACK FAYDEN posted:

Isn't he just completely oblivious? Not that it makes most of his "foibles" less awful, but he's really just a brick rather than actively choosing to be lovely, right?

He complained that the term "mansplaining" was sexist in the same tweet he accused a woman of "cuntfusing" the issue.

The dude is garbage.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Whoops, not literally the same tweet, but he did call mansplaining "a derogatory term about my gender" in the #cuntfusing tweet.

http://www.craveonline.com/entertainment/991475-notch-creator-beautiful-game-minecraft-now-calls-upon

That other thing is also amazing. The guy just sucks.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Oct 4, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Roland Jones posted:

That was a legitimately frustrating thing to watch. Ugh. Kaine, you disappointed me so much and made me legitimately grateful that the VP debate doesn't matter.

At the least Pence contradicted himself/Trump/reality so often that there should be a few good "I/Trump never said that" *yes he did* videos made with clips from this cut with past stuff. He looked a bit better in the debate, but post-debate reality hopefully won't be kind to him.

Reposting this here while I catch up on the thread, which somehow has a lot more posts than the actual debate thread from the same time period it seems.

Glad to see most people, here and in other places, basically agree with me on the outcome here though.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Islam is the Lite Rock FM posted:

I think Sanders would be dominating at least as much as Hillary is right now. Both candidates bring different, but similarly strong, blocs to the table.

However, the GOP wouldn't be melting down nearly as much as they are now simply because Hillary is a woman and a clinton. That outweighs Sanders being more to the left.

Basically. Back in the primaries I figured Bernie had an even better chance against Trump than Hillary, and while she has seriously impressed me in her fight against him (I really underestimated her ability here, and more importantly really overestimated Trump) I think Bernie would still do well too. Probably would not have destroyed him as thoroughly in the debate and stuff, but would still be likely to win.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

ImpAtom posted:

Pretty much this.

I think Sanders would win if he'd gone for it but the idea that Sanders would have an easy time seems predicated on the idea that he'd weather the infinite scandal machine unscathed and I think that's a pretty big if. Sanders would have youth enthusiasm on his side but how vulnerable that enthusiasm is would be a big question. Sanders strikes me as someone forthright which might make a strong comparison to Trump but also might leave him vulnerable to what we saw with Kaine and Pence yesterday where he's struggling to fight against an endless tied of lies. Clinton has many flaws but I absolutely believe she's more comfortable in the middle of the muckraking fight than most politicians would be.

Oh yeah, that's the big area she impressed me; while I knew about her amazing performance in the Benghazi hearing, I was still amazed at how effortlessly she shut down Trump. Bernie genuinely engaging Trump might have looked good, but it probably wouldn't have hurt Trump nearly as bad. We'd probably have him still "winning" the debate, but it'd be "closer" because he wouldn't have annihilated Trump the same way, even if he managed to engender more positivity towards himself.

On Terra Firma posted:

I don't think some people are taking into account how insanely good Hilary's campaign team is. Imagine Bernie's team in the general coming close to what Clinton's team has done. They're coordinating so well it's scary.

Oh, no, I'm amazed at how well they're doing now. It's great.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Instant Sunrise posted:

yeah as a woman who supported sanders i don't recall anything from the clinton campaign that made it sound like they expected us to fall in line for her

A couple of her... Is surrogates the right term? Made some not-great comments. That "there's a special place in hell for women who don't support women" one is the one that stands out to me.

Hillary herself I don't recall acting like that, though.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Pakled posted:

Popular vote matters in this election because it is a de facto referendum on white nationalism, and a slim popular vote win for Clinton means "well, we'll try again next time" but a landslide for Clinton will send a much stronger message.

Yeah, like, after the primaries I was bitter and was thinking of not voting (because I live in California and this state's going blue no matter what; even at the height of my bitterness I admitted that I'd vote blue if I lived anywhere else), but since then I've warmed considerably to Hillary, even if the things I dislike about her are still there, and also want to see Trump absolutely crushed in every regard so I'm going to be voting for her even if it'd be hard for my vote to matter less statistically.

Like, the Democrats are running on the most progressive party platform ever, while the Republicans are trying to win on bigotry and a utterly disgusting regressive platform. Thoughts on Hillary aside, it is vitally important that the Democrats win as thoroughly as possible to send a message going forward, to both parties.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
Really, I'm fine with how things turned out in the end; Bernie got official Democrat endorsement of a lot of his policies and raised awareness of his issues, even if things got ugly as the primary went on, and Hillary Clinton, who may otherwise have had trouble due to how the Republicans have been smearing her for decades and demonized her even to people in the middle and on the left, is running against Donald Trump and, barring some unforeseen disaster, is going to absolutely crush him.

End result, we get a female President who is honestly probably better at policy and such than Bernie would have been, possibly a Democrat majority Senate, and the most progressive party platform ever attached to what's looking like it will be a very successful presidential run. It's hard for things to have worked out better. (Democratic control of the House would be nice but I don't think was ever in the cards no matter what happened sadly.)

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Augus posted:

I voted for Bernie in the primaries and I must say that other Bernie voters have really given me a rough time with that decision. Bernie or Bust is so loving stupid.

I think most Bernie or Bust people were anti-establishment rather than leftist, a few (major assholes and hypocrites) aside. And, again, I think a lot probably cooled off since the primary ended. At the least, I did, and while I wasn't full Bernie or Bust I, as stated before, was considering not voting since my state's guaranteed blue anyway, before I realized that that was dumb and my vote isn't sacred or special or anything so even if Hillary is the "lesser evil" (I don't think she is anymore) I sure as hell should vote for her.

Any Bernie supporters who really are leftists and aren't idiots are still voting Hillary, even if it may have taken them a little while to calm down after the primary. The ones who aren't weren't leftist to begin with, and/or are huge misogynists. Which, well. '08 saw things like HillaryIs44, and according to polls and whatnot fewer Bernie supporters have gone Trump compared to '08 Hillary supporters going McCain. It's not that bad, it's just that the assholes are loud and annoying and the ones who aren't terrible are already boosting Hillary or just staying quiet, so you notice the former more and remember them after the fact.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Oct 6, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

There was some really vile racism running through the die-hard Hillary camp back in '08, though I don't blame her for it. I remember a conversation with this horrible baby boomer woman who gave me the one-two punch of "you're only voting for Obama because you're black" and "it's okay for me to say stuff like that because my parents invited a black person to our house in the sixties."

Yeah, that sort of thing is what I was referencing. There are lovely people supporting every campaign, and as annoying as they can be Bernie's are thus far proving to actually be less bad than historical comparisons.

NikkolasKing posted:

Let me ask you this. If Trump became president, do I genuinely need to worry for the safety of my gay friends? I know some of you are saying I'm a troll but if there is a real chance the alarmism about Trump is genuine, I will absolutely make sure to vote for Clinton. My word may not be much but I mean it.

The official Republican platform supports gay conversion therapy, undoing gay marriage, and a lot of other things. Trump isn't as openly bigoted towards LGBT people as he is other people who aren't straight white cis men but he's still awful there, and Pence, who Trump has hinted will basically really be in charge if he wins (and might just outright become President in that case because Trump dying or being impeached are both fairly likely), is extremely anti-gay, having passed the first RFRA in his state and basically caused an HIV outbreak, among other things. Also, him winning would result in Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court through his nominations.

A Trump victory would roll back LGBT rights so far and so fast and would undo basically all recent progress and then some. It'd be a disaster.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

ImpAtom posted:

Little me disliked her because she said a bad thing about a video game. I wonder if a lot of people still have that lingering "gently caress yoooou" element for Clinton for similar reasons.

Probably, but most of those people were on Trump's side already I imagine.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Oct 6, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Epic High Five posted:

our third parties in this country are craven incompetents who couldn't take over a BBQ tent

if there's any split in the future it'll be from the GOP withering away into a rump party and the Democrat's tent getting so big that for awhile, the national elections will essentially be the Democratic primary between candidates on the far left and regular left

I'm curious what happens after that. Like, eventually things should rebalance to two parties, right? I'm wondering how that would go; would the Republicans try to transform themselves somehow without losing what they already have (which seems difficult given how psychotic they've made their remaining base that isn't liable to go blue sooner or later too), or would the Democrats split or something?

WeAreTheRomans posted:

I think it's realistic that a 3rd party will get to the debates in the next couple of cycles. Beyond that anyone who claims to know is lying.

Best of luck undergoing any sort of political evolution as long as FPTP voting keeps America tethered to a woefully inadequate and anachronistic system

Us getting IRV is something I'm hopeful for with this election, actually. Obama, Sanders, and McCain all support it, among others, and Hillary's trying to place herself as a continuation of the first's time in office, appeal to people who liked the second, and I might be misremembering but may have been a bit positive towards the third as well? That and other things have me hoping (though I admit it's still unlikely) that she might push for electoral reform in some manner.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

WeAreTheRomans posted:

IRV is still weak as hell in comparison to STV. Although I guess I can really only speak to STV within a parliamentary system.

I would expect an attempt to introduce IRV would create a complete political shitstorm which could quagmire a Clinton presidency, but who knows?

Oh, I like STV too. Heck, STV basically becomes IRV if you're only picking one candidate (like what a smaller state would do for a representative, or, you know, us picking a president).

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Instant-runoff voting is way too complicated. I can't imagine it being anything but a mess here.

I don't see it as that complicated or hard to explain to people. "Put your top choice first, if they lose your vote goes to your second choice, etc. until someone get a majority of the vote. You can now vote third-party without basically voting against your own interests (but they probably still won't win so this mainly serves as a way to tell your preferred main party that you'd like them to start stealing ideas from the third parties you put ahead of them, at least for the presidency)."

Epic High Five posted:

it ain't perfect but everything else is worse

gimme FPTP over parliament any day. At least this way Trump and his Nazi hordes get routed instead of the MAGA 1488 Party gaining a bunch of seats from states that still elect Klan sympathizers and gaining legitimacy and a voice in the national discourse for years to come


In this case, it'd be an Overton window shift and what we refer to as left and right at the moment would change dramatically, even if everything was still being framed that way.

So it'd be...well whatever issues end up being the wedge, it's tough to tell in this theory, but we wouldn't have multiple branches of government pushing hard to gay rape/suicide camps and Trail of Tears 2.0 because the window shifting would change what "right wing" means

Oh yeah, Britain's nonsense has me not liking a parliamentary system; things seem like an even worse mess there (though that's partially because they have FPTP too, at least for things like how a majority of their representatives have well under a majority of the vote). Currently I think the way to go would be STV so that gerrymandering is significantly weakened and our representatives are generally more, well, representative, and third parties aren't entirely useless and the main two have to react more to what voters want, but general things stay the same instead of us going for, like, a completely new system of government or something.

Anyway, hm. Potential wedge issues... Well, with majority popular support for things like gay marriage, trans people using the restrooms they want, and women having access to abortions, I assume those at least wouldn't be the ones, thankfully. Not sure entirely what would be, though; like you say, it's really tough to tell. Things moving leftward overall would be really nice, though.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Oct 6, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Yeah that's way too complicated. You have to remember, hardly anyone is a politics nerd like we are. Most people barely have a first choice for any given election. The overwhelming majority of Americans are straight-ticket voters who frequently know nothing about any candidate on the ballot below VP. I don't go in for that "lol the average person is so dumb" thing. It's not about intelligence, it's about this not being their hobby the way it is ours.

Remove my parenthetical there, really, that was more for us political nerds and to show that I'm not delusional about IRV magically making a third-party take the presidency or something.

"Rank your choices from best to worst and your vote goes to the first, person with the least votes is eliminated and their votes redistributed to next choices until someone has more than half the votes" is simple. Heck, I've talked about this with people who aren't political nerds (my family, who are varying degrees of conservative and racist and are mostly, admittedly, not exactly well-educated or anything) and they not only understand it but think it's a good idea. Heck, I was able to sell them on STV without much trouble. I think you're underestimating people a lot.

Lightning Knight posted:

Abortion isn't going away any time soon. It's still much too easy to convince people of the frail logic of the pro-life movement and that being pro-life necessarily means being anti-legal abortion or birth control. The easy scare tactics of "your daughters!" and "those sluts" are too powerful.

Also guns. Guns will be the death of the republic.

Nah, again, abortion has >50% support in the country overall and stuff. The issue is the religious right having inordinate influence among Republicans, and both that influence and that party are dying.

Guns might be a bigger issue, but, again, popular support is actually behind certain control. The NRA, awful organization that they are, will fight like mad, but if the Republican party dies hopefully the NRA's power will be diminished too since their pet politicians won't hold so much power.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Oct 6, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

I live in California, which has more elements of direct democracy than most parts of the country, so our ballots already require a burdensome amount of voter education. I've been in the trenches there and just getting people to wrap their heads around what voting "Yes" on Proposition No More Badthing means is a struggle. People aren't dumb but people are distracted and they are creatures of habit. Even tiny increases in complexity can cause huge drops in participation.

Huh, what part of California are you in, out of curiosity? I'm in the Valley but I will also admit that my political involvement has been minor at best.

I still don't think that comparing our propositions to ranked choice voting works that well, particularly since the latter you can still vote for only one candidate if you really want to so for anyone who doesn't want to nothing changes, but, well, I don't think we're really going to convince each other here. I mean, I managed to explain IRV to both great grandparents and literal children and have them all get it, so I really don't see how it'd mess things up that badly.

Epic High Five posted:

all politics is swamp, that's why they built DC on one

the problem isn't our system, it's the insane polarization we have in the country right now. Pretty much any other system you can name would also be popping rivets and wheezing under the strain of it. pretty much the only good thing to be said is that at least FPTP means that the polarization can be swept out or otherwise marginalized a lot faster than if there was no obligation for parties to be appealing or viable on the national level before they were handed power

Yeah, that's one good thing. The Republicans are going to be slowly suffocated and denied any hopes of the presidency, even if their hold elsewhere will take longer to remove.

Still, STV or something would have helped deal with the absurd gerrymandering somewhat, which seems like it'd have helped deal with this kind of stuff sooner. In theory, at least.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

How have you missed me never shutting up about Los Angeles

And yeah, we don't need to convince each other. I'm not like, mad at IRV. If it happens I'll deal. I just think it'll cause a lot of static for very little gain.

I have only been following this thread and subforum for the most part relatively recently. Anyway, good to know. Good luck in your work there. I've been thinking of getting involved in local politics myself, but the area's Republican-leaning (well, on the county level; I think locally it's Democrat-leaning maybe) so I don't know how successful I'd be.

And I admit I'm an idealist in some regards, including the potential improvements IRV/STV would bring. Heck, the latter would increase Republican influence in places Democrats have gerrymandered, though I think that Republicans have generally done it more so overall it'd be a net gain probably. In theory, at least; it's sadly not likely, at least for the foreseeable future.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 10:17 on Oct 6, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

That's all the more reason to get involved, neighbor. With LA and SF becoming so untenably expensive, low income people and minorities are being pushed out to the red parts of the state where they're really at risk from republican policies. If we mobilize well now and turn those transplants into reliable Dem voters we can start seeing some blue counties in the east for once.

I'm in Fresno county, specifically, might actually be moving into Fresno itself soon if I'm lucky. (Yes, lucky; my current situation sucks enough for me to consider moving into Fresno a good thing.) I think Fresno itself is Democrat-leaning, so things might not be so bad there, but I'm not sure. I'm really a novice in this regard. I think the county as a whole is red-leaning but goes blue in some presidential elections (and Fresno's in two districts for some reason, one currently red, one blue), so, not sure how much it'd help but making it more solidly blue would definitely be nice since both Fresno and the two places I mostly lived growing up are in the county (minus the very edge of one of the towns, which is in Madera county for some baffling reason).

Also I have a petty grudge against Devin Nunes (I contacted his office over the SOPA/PIPA-style Internet regulation bills that were popping up a few years back, asking why a supposed conservative like him would support those things and trying to convince him to change his stance; I got a form letter response back thanking me for my support of him and those bills, then for the next few years got frequent emails from his ofice spouting stupid, hypocritical conservative nonsense until I got tired of it and marked his emails as spam), so seeing him lose his seat would fill me with delight, but I imagine ousting him wouldn't be easy.

Ditocoaf posted:

The nice thing about IRV in my opinion is that you can still just vote for one candidate and leave it at that. (that is, if you don't have any stupid rules against doing that.)

Then on top of that people who want to push support for a third party can do that without "wasting a vote" just by voting 1 for them and 2 for the bigger party. There's no requirement to research the entire ballot or do anything you wouldn't do today.

Yeah, basically. That's how I've sold IRV to most non-political people, to generally positive response.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 13:04 on Oct 6, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Epic High Five posted:

I'd be happy if just John "if Trump says PTSD is for the weak then that's the truth" McCain ends up losing

And Arpaio is fired into the sun

Arpaio losing would alone be great. Glorious, really. Though McCain losing too would make things even better.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

El Pollo Blanco posted:

How did the United States get gay marriage on the federal level again?

Supreme Court.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

climboutonalimb posted:

This was posted on my FB feed of a guy practicing "radical empathy" with a disaffected white Trump voter in Ohio. https://extranewsfeed.com/i-listened-to-a-trump-supporter-49a41a9a99de#.29amma1j0

I get that things today are so polarizing and it's impossible to change someone's mind by talking down to them and empathy is the only way to understand someone's point of view but I can't help but think that this approach changes nothing. Maybe you walk away feeling smugly superior for NOT shouting the person down and listening but really what do you do with this information?

I'm late, but was it David Hill, the game designer? I unfollowed him a while back because he was a NeverHillary person who seemed almost thrilled at the idea of her losing, even if it meant a Trump victory, despite being a leftist, and at one point praised someone coming into a thread about how Donald Trump basically destroyed her hometown to say Hillary's bad too as a "burn".

Or are there other dumbasses out there who claim to follow "radical empathy" while being some of the least-empathetic leftists imaginable?

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

lozzle posted:

Yes it is that idiot and if you delve into the comments (don't) you can find him unironically agreeing with somebody from the "lock her up" crowd.

Also don't read the article itself because it is awful.

I didn't, don't worry. (Edit: Oh wow, he actually wrote the article, he didn't just post it? What an utter scumbag and hypocrite.) Anyway, wow. It's really amazing and frustrating how so many supposed leftists would happily see us get facism and watch the Republicans ruin everything because they'd rather not vote for the imperfect alternative.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
538 updated; Hillary's now up to a 75.4% chance to win in polls-plus, 78.7% in polls-only, and 87.1% in the now-cast.

Not really a big deal probably, but even polls-plus putting her at 75%+ is nice to see. I wonder how high those will reach before the election finally happens; I doubt this is the peak.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Eifert Posting posted:

Holy poo poo, Pakistan made honor killing a punishable offense regardless of the opinion of the murderer's family. :woop:

That's great news. I hope it's enforced well.

Eugene V. Dabs posted:

Assuming the debate is another implosion by Trump, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Polls-Plus and Polls only over 80% a week or two from now. That's a big assumption, though.

Another implosion or just the stats? I don't think the former is a stretch, at least.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

7c Nickel posted:

A Trump supporter sleeps inside each one of us. We must kill him.

Abort your future Trump supporter today. Support Planned Parenthood.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

PhazonLink posted:

Ambivalent Reminder.

He and the wife keep a jar of their stillborn in their nightstand.

Wait what. The hell? Is that a rumor you heard or made up or was this confirmed somewhere?

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Artix posted:

Even Trump must know this is wrong. There is no way he honestly believes that Hillary has not been practicing for the last two weeks.

He thinks she's like him probably, and/or is underestimating her drive by a long shot. She's definitely being doing a lot of prep though; after how long she's been working for this, there's no way she's getting complacent now.

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Why is Trump talking about the Central Park 5 anyway? What on earth does he have to do with it?

As people said, he was convinced they were guilty and has been calling for their deaths for decades. Literal decades. He is so pissed that they're not dead.

Roland Jones fucked around with this message at 06:21 on Oct 7, 2016

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

When was this? And why is he bringing it up now?

He took the advertisement out May 1, 1989. He's stood by it since and has commented on the case even recently, like after the settlement and whatnot.

He is adamant that they're guilty and deserve death and doesn't care what anyone, the courts included, say. He really, really wants those men dead.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/784565072769191940

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Quinton posted:

I doubt it. I expect she'll keep collecting her paycheck until he stops paying or fires her.

What makes you think she's getting paid?

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

dont even fink about it posted:

How many Republicans have rescinded their endorsements? Two?

That I know of.

I wish my local Republican rep actually used his Twitter account. I want to see his reaction to this and/or tweet at him angrily for not unendorsing (unless he surprises me and does; for all his faults he's one of the ones who was critical of the Tea Party for a while and stuff).

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

tezcat posted:

If you guys wanna drink some tears check out /pol/ :getin:

I'd really rather not. Post the best bits, perhaps?

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Dexo posted:

We go live to Ben Barsons spokesman

I don't know what's worse, one of the super-religious guys dismissing adultery, i.e. something the Ten Commandments are pretty clear on, as "something everyone does", or completely ignoring the sexual assault side of things.

I mean, I'm not surprised by either, but still.

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

Tiler Kiwi posted:

i think itd be cool if donald trump got stuck on the rear bumper of a car, and then the car drove for a very, very, long time, until it broke down in the middle of hell, and he didnt have bus fare to go home

I don't wish harm or death upon Trump, despite all this.

He needs to live until the election so he can be crushed without stupid conspiracies about Hillary having him assassinated marring things and potentially hindering her victory and utter crushing of the GOP.

After that, though...

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Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo

computer parts posted:

From what I remember the Bill stuff was "he once rode on a plane owned a guy who was later convicted of using that same plane to rape minors".

Trump also has strong (possibly even stronger) connections to the child rapist in question, too, so that's not a good line of attack for him.

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