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Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

HJB posted:

The PMQs Zinger of the Week™: May about Corbyn - "He can lead a protest, I'm leading a country."

that deserved a full on pantomine response

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Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Rakosi posted:

, there has been an ignored weight of dishonesty in the Remainer camp regarding how much more the UK needs the EU than the EU needs the UK (or, namely, the City of London).

for fucks sake how do you believe that stupid poo poo? it's a larger economy than america, the imbalance is enormous, and against the UK's favour. The City of London loving leaves london if it doesn't get a replacement for it's current passporting schemes. It goes to Paris. The City needs a tax haven inside the EU, and The City, the financial institutions, are not remotely under the control of the British state. They can, and likely will, leave.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
European economy, 22.8% of nominal global GDP. UK economy, 4.4%


It's pretty loving basic mathematics.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Regarde Aduck posted:

Well it's game over then. The papers not only control the narrative but directly control our politicians.

no I'm sure someone will appear to tell us again that actually there's nothing wrong with the behaviour of the media and absolutely no reason to incite protest, peaceful or violent, against them

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Fangz posted:

Well, like, I said, the fiscal rule stuff. Labour's adopted the position, contrary to all economic sense, that governments need to commit to deficit balancing.

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/08/01/a-note-to-john-mcdonnells-economic-adviser-on-fiscal-rules-and-their-desirability/


So once the tax take reduces due to Brexit (and note that tax take reduction here is *not* cyclical), Labour's own fiscal rule means spending must be constrained. Labour will doubtlessly try to push for a balanced program of tax increases and spending cuts (like Osborne's punishment budget) but this will be rejected, and then we'll be in a pretty fair approximation of the brexit situation where the only way to stick to Labour's own rule would be to vote in favour of the Tory austerity plan.

I would expect, and most people would red line, that corbyn committs to 75% tax rate on plus 100k well before he even looks at spending cuts

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
if corbyn's support removed immediately from the a50 bill, would it make any difference?

would it make any difference to the outcome if he whipped against?

If so and only if so can you reasonably say he "propped them up". A rock holding a door open is propping it. If you take the rock away and the door doesnt budge, it wasn't propping it.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Private Speech posted:

I look forward to Labour voting with the government on every bill they can push through, then.

This is a pretty poo poo argument whichever way you feel about Labour and Brexit.

no, we have a pretty poo poo government


Fangz posted:

For a start, what do you mean by this.

undecided voters still vote and massively outnumber the educated. Their likelihood to vote and the constituency they are in, if calculated, combine to form a better reading of the climate than raw decideds. Anyone who has "decided" to be a tory is clearly a loving idiot. Most people just tag along because the tories they know are abrasive loudmouths

Fangz posted:

For a start, what do you mean by this.

Or actually, explain what 'margin of error' means to you.

are you defending statistical methods that arbitrarily exclude the larger parts of their sample?

anyone who would defend government modelling with words that belong in mathematics is dense af

Spangly A fucked around with this message at 18:05 on Feb 9, 2017

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Fangz posted:



No, *you are*. If you are trumpeting raw values for a party as a percentage of votes with the denominator including undecideds then you are making the very strong assumption that undecided voters don't vote.

no I'm the one saying that raw values are dumb

Fangz posted:



Nope. It's an estimate of the inherent variability of the results on repeated sampling subject to assumptions. Voter likelihood methods and demographic reweighting are introduced to *reduce* the contribution of sampling variation to MoE.

are you trained in probability?

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

TinTower posted:

Most polls in the final week had Clinton winning the popular vote by 2-4%.

She won the popular vote by 2.1%.

did she win the presidency

Yorkshire Tea posted:

At this point he could probably murder babies in their sleep and people would claim that these are babies being brought up under the oppressive yoke of capitalism and that killing them is a mercy.

I'd be ok with him going herod yes

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

TinTower posted:

Getting more votes for president than any white man in history = losing horrifically, gotcha.

SHE LOST TO DONALD TRUMP

kingturnip posted:

Last BBC article I read suggested that the UN were expecting the last of the FARC rebels to enter a designated zone by yesterday, I think.
In the meantime, the government have started negotiations with the second-largest group of rebels.

Because in some countries, the government realises that the populace are stupid, inbred ratarses and should be ignored for their own safety.

glorious

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

namesake posted:

This thread is really showing the truth of that Labour polling which said position on Brexit was more important than previous party loyalty.

every person with a single braincell realises that this is worth way more than 5 years political capital/economic consequences

if it could be stopped it would be, but it can't, because nobody in charge wants to, because they're filthy, self-serving animals

so idk let's just roll with it

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Fangz posted:

It basically sounds like you are an idiot. This is the fundamental difference between between frequentist and bayesian stats, kid.

I love calling people stupid because we're all idiots but I have weird sympathies for not understanding bayesian stats, I failed my first two assignments at uni before it clicked

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
data that hides its sources and methods isnt good data and bad data is worse than no data

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Oberleutnant posted:

I think you'll find that a was an unwilling agent of the Illuminati/NWO co-opted into being an assassin by the CIA's MKULTRA programme.

if MKULTRA was required history you'd never again be called a conspiracy theorist for mentioning that papers are poo poo hacks these days

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
was it MKULTRA where the CIA briefly dosed elephants with acid to get an idea on physical tolerance?

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

JFairfax posted:

yeah they gave LSD to people without telling them.

the CIA is real bad + evil

It's been a while since I sat down and went over the declassifieds for fun but I, noted drug lover, would not want to be injected by a KG of lsd, and I'm nearly certain they used a KG on at least one occasion. Possibly the elephant. While trying to work out if LSD was a truth serum

e; lol now I'm remembering the Big Buzz and housewife syndrome

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

JFairfax posted:

how do they know if an elephant is telling the truth or not?

idk my only explanation of some MKULTRA stuff is that they weren't using gloves when handling LSD

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Rakosi posted:

Thats a little reductionist.

black hand assassinates pm, "not political", says forum user

HJB posted:

So it is possible to blindly accuse everyone of racism until you get your way.

only if you're white, though

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

hakimashou posted:


Do you guys legitimately not understand this or is it "we will do or say anything no matter how transparently absurd to rationalize the actions of Chairman Corbyn."

you are far, far too uneducated to pull this poo poo

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
white people crying racism can fairly be punched, much like nazis

if I said shot I'd get another day off

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

having been on the other end of that their estimation of street value is always bollocks, I'd be interested in hearing from some filth how they come to these figures

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
I'm still amazed he has a show and it's not just people saying "you're a loving oval office" and listing the many reasons

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Gort posted:

Who the gently caress goes "gently caress the tories, I'm voting x" and then goes back to voting tory afterwards?

the average voter

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
Is there a large-scale response for the retraction of the dubs amendment?

I mean they just sentenced a bunch of children to death because they can't be arsed.

it'd be totally appropriate to declare damnatio memoriae on the last ten years of british history at this point

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

JFairfax posted:

Almost half of Labour's voters do not want the party to try and block Brexit, a new poll for The Independent has found.

Though two-thirds of Labour supporters voted to Remain, the new ComRes study found that this does not necessarily translate into wanting to stop Article 50 being triggered.

48 per cent of the party’s voters now say the Opposition shouldn’t try and overturn the referendum result.

The finding is likely to take some pressure off Jeremy Corbyn, who has come in for criticism from some supporters for whipping his MPs not to block Article 50.

Mr Corbyn suffered several frontbench resignations over the Article 50 vote, which took place at the end of an all-hours debate about Brexit which ran late into the night for several days last week.

The most high-profile resignation was Clive Lewis, the shadow business secretary.

Multiple whips also voted Remain, though frontbenchers outside the shadow cabinet have been let off with a written warning and will not be forced to resign.

The public at large also broadly agree with Labour’s stance of not standing in the way of leaving the EU – with 64 per cent saying the party should not try to obstruct the process.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-voters-brexit-poll-support-article-50-a7575406.html

I think it's quite endearing that even when jeremy uses a three line whip he clearly can't be arsed to enforce it

still wonder if it worked as a stunt, still think it was dumb

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Skinty McEdger posted:

The mail had yet another pro Corbyn puff piece today, making it three weekends in a row. I'm pretty sure this is a bad sign.

ok well the three line whip quite clearly worked

corbyn... good?

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

I can't imagine why the Mail would want a pro Brexit Labour leader completely unable to stand up to the Tories.

Just can't imagine.

his page today is nothing but various people challenging the dubs retraction

please don't confuse "doesn't challenge" with "I'm too stupid to read anything not in the papers", which you are doing now

Spangly A fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Feb 11, 2017

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Prince John posted:

Isn't the convention for members of the shadow cabinet to be booted out for breaking the whip, which has happened? He's only letting people who were outside the shadow cabinet off with the written warning, because they weren't part of the decision making process and therefore not bound by collective responsibility.

It sounds logical to me, but I don't know whether this is something normal (i.e. only shadow cabinet members usually get the boot) being spun as a Corbyn weakness, or whether everyone with a position on the opposition benches usually gets booted for breaking the whip, regardless of whether they're in the shadow cabinet or not.

I'm assuming it's convention else he'd have been kicked off the benches a ridiculous number of times, but I'm not sure. The opposite, on reflection, seems a logistical nightmare.

I'm expecting clive lewis to get the symbolic defence role this year anyway

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
I like it when bercow has to call order on something Labour are doing and then spends most of the time telling junior tories to shut the gently caress up

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

TinTower posted:

If the Tories thought this through properly, they wouldn't really want to get rid of Bercow, as the frontrunner to succeed him is almost certainly the no-nonsense Labour Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle.

whereupon they can promptly claim forever that it's labour bias whenever they do anything awful

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Pissflaps posted:

I don't think I've ever heard of a speaker being criticised for partisan bias before - is that a thing or are we using our imaginations?

we're not in the 1990s anymore dorothy, lying and screaming about partisanship is the new hip thing. I fully expect it from the tories and papers as soon as they have a chance.

Pissflaps posted:

It's depressing as hell seeing a labour candidate boasting of their party's pro Brexit credentials but I guess that's the word from the top.

I can't wait to hear you've voted lib dem

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
if you bray in parliament you should be put down like a rabid dog tbh

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Marmaduke! posted:

I liked this article in the Times about Remainers:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...434860af1714bb0

But mostly because of the massive unironic Godwin.

I like the confusion between intellectuals and the evidence they produce, it's a great attack against something nobody worth listening to has ever claimed.

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Pochoclo posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/12/frank-walter-steinmeier-elected-germany-president-donald-trump-critic-

New centre-left president for Germany? How is this not all over the news by the way? I imagine this is slightly a good thing? Or, again, did he vote to institute mandatory baby-eating at some point?

When Schroeder caused the european debt crisis with Agenda 2010 he was an advisor and whip who brought together the green/socdem support while Schroeder had a loving tantrum about it. His foreign policy has been even handed and he was an ally of france in their attempts to forge an anti US iraq coalition.

e; I confused two key players so rewrite was needed before more people quoted me

Spangly A fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Feb 12, 2017

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

LemonDrizzle posted:

People do judge each other on appearance, though - one of Ed Miliband's big problems was that people saw him as a goofy-looking nerd who wouldn't be a credible prime minister. If you're scoping people out for a political leadership position and for whatever reason, everyone you ask says that there's something about one person's appearance or self-presentation that makes it hard to take them seriously, that's important and useful information even if it's unfair and unreasonable that the person in question is being judged in that way.

yeah it's definitely a legitimate political system that cares this much about appearance and not a sham that needs so, so much fire

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

LemonDrizzle posted:

I think perhaps you've got Steinmeier confused with someone else - he wasn't involved in the european debt crisis in any meaningful sense, and has never been Chancellor. Are you thinking of Schroeder?

It was schroeders plan, Steinmeier was the guy who pulled the green/social dem support for it together. Whipping for Schroeder pretty much excludes you being left wing.

I did confuse the tantrum part with Schroeder, yes. Steinmeier's been a key ally and advisor though (hence the mistake)

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Pochoclo posted:

It's amazing and sad but every time I ask "hey this politician sounds like he might be slightly good, is that true?" the answer is always "no, it's not true, he's poo poo" because all politicians are poo poo. I mean, I already know that, but I'm kinda grasping at straws here you know.

his foreign policy is good and he gets some slack for my confusing the whip and the chancellor, I still don't think anyone even close to agenda 2010 is left wing

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

LemonDrizzle posted:

Steinmeier's pretty inoffensive as SPD guys go. However, his appointment as president isn't particularly big news because the president of Germany is mostly just a figurehead whose main job is to appear at state events and hobnob with foreign dignitaries. The real power rests with (in decreasing order) the government/chancellor, the bundestag, and the federal states.

he's already been federal PM, I'm not actually sure what powers the executive technically has in Germany but I imagine LD's right and that he's not big news

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

Pissflaps posted:

What are the acceptable type of opinions you'd rather see collected?

none at all, and no democracy.

None at all is in fact the correct response to "whose opinions matter".

Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

JFairfax posted:

I hope this puts to rest the misguided notion that poverty is a cause of obesity, it may be correlated, but it isn't in and of itself a cause.

poverty correlates with poor education which correlates with both obesity and more generic malnutrition/starvation when food prices rise and there's no understanding of nutrition to compensate

these aren't seperate things

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Spangly A
May 14, 2009

God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall
if the state wants us to eat proper food all the time maybe they should hand out cheap opium?

hell I'd not buy any sugar if I could just have a little dab on the pipe with my ryvita

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