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Poll: Who Should Be Leader of HM Most Loyal Opposition?
This poll is closed.
Jeremy Corbyn 95 18.63%
Dennis Skinner 53 10.39%
Angus Robertson 20 3.92%
Tim Farron 9 1.76%
Paul Ukips 7 1.37%
Robot Lenin 105 20.59%
Tony Blair 28 5.49%
Pissflaps 193 37.84%
Total: 510 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

Yes it is bad for Corbyn that he's an ill-prepared, disorganised fuckwit.

Congratulations on being the next leader of the opposition

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mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

feedmegin posted:

So were you? Like, ask the Philippines what went down about a century and change ago. I'm not sure what on earth that has to do with our Leader of the Opposition in 2017 and I'm not sure that an American is in the best place to tell us what we should be doing better given the results on the ground over there :shobon:

Here's how Bernie can still win

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Darth Walrus posted:

Anyone been keeping track of the metro mayor elections? They'll be happening on May 4, and they're a pretty big deal - each mayor is put in charge of several councils in a region, and will oversee that region on a general, strategic level. For example, the mayor for the west of England will oversee the running of the Bristol, South Gloucestershire, and Bath and North-East Somerset councils, co-ordinating education, transport, housing, and the economy. I actually met the West England Labour candidate, Lesley Mansell, last night, and was very impressed - she's smart, honest, and has an impressively diverse range of experience. Definitely would be an idea to pay attention to this one.

Anyone but Stephen loving Williams.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Darth Walrus posted:

Oh aye? What's so bad about him? Other than being a coalition minister, obviously

"Being a coalition minister" is pretty much all of it. gently caress that guy.

Unless it seems like the LDs are in danger of getting it, I'll probably vote for Darren Hall. He's a bit up himself but generally sound.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Darth Walrus posted:

Don't forget that the election uses the supplementary vote system, so you can vote for first and second preferences. I do think Mansell would be a solid fallback even if you prefer the Greens.

I can't forget something I never knew :v: seriously, this election is so poorly publicised.

Will definitely go Green 1 Labour 2 if no other candidates pop up

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
Wait, when did we start taking council by-elections seriously again? I missed the memo.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

Nobody's talked about it for hours and the only person to give it much thought was a CDFer desperately attempting to mitigate the loss. about[/url].

Who reads SA outside of work hours? :shrug:

Zalakwe posted:

They aren't important in isolation but the patterns they show can tell you lots of things.

Bollocks, there's almost always local factors that just make no sense to extrapolate to the national picture. Like here with the independent vote split.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

Tell that to Jeremy.

Not defending that, who the gently caress cares about a parish council election holy poo poo cmon Jezza

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

Stephen Hawking? He's just a 'science man'. gently caress his opinion.

I mean, being a leading theoretical physicist doesn't necessarily make you an expert on politics

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

Has he claimed to be an expert on politics?

Hell, has he even claimed to be living with an expert on politics?

Just saying, I'm not sure why I should give a toss about what he thinks of the state of the Labour party :shrug:

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Coohoolin posted:

Not before Hawking does.

gently caress off this poo poo

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

big scary monsters posted:

Stephen Hawking is wrong about AI imo.

Yeah, I'm solidly unconvinced by the arguments.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Cerv posted:

it stinks of a kind of Trump-ian anti-intellectualism

combined with mocking disability it starts to look like a pattern

Except literally everyone who's said "he doesn't know gently caress about politics/AI" has pointed out what a world-class authority he is on theoretical physics, so anti-intellectualism doesn't wash.

gently caress ableism though.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
More corporation tax cuts. That'll help cut that deficit Phil

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

namesake posted:

Agreed on the neutrality but you can't look at that particular graph and think anything but 'forecasts more than a year out are trash and shorter ones are probably also trash'. Modelling real economies is basically impossible but I don't understand the mentality which consistently projects rocket trajectories which don't materialise outside of rapid industrialisation.

My understanding is that the OBR would ideally like folks to stop putting so much weight on their forecasts given how wide the confidence bands are on them.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

namesake posted:

While that's fair given the difficulty of their job if they want that to happen they should stop providing 'hard' figures and provide forecast ranges with the reason that it's impossible for them to just draw a line and be right.

This shouldn't come as a surprise, but that is what they provide. :shrug:

https://twitter.com/KatieAllenGdn/status/839503208796028929

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

namesake posted:

No I mean forget the (future) purple lines entirely, they're misleading when the level of accuracy is low.

Obviously they'd have to calculate them to get the forecast but they shouldn't appear in their presentations.

Yeah, well, the OBR isn't as independent as they'd like to be and I imagine the Treasury would throw a poo poo-fit :(

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Fangz posted:

Scotland cannot unilaterally declare independence. All talk of natural rights is kinda irrelevant, what matters is what recognition the UK government grants, and whether an independent Scotland can find a sufficiently powerful sponsor in the (unlikely) case where the UK is hostile. If an independence referendum passes, May could quite simply say 'nah', and she'll have to answer to the British legal system and the electorate, not to the UN. I can't really think of any historical examples of the UN assisting in the breaking away of parts of the state, aside from cases like e.g. Korea where they were pretty transparently acting according to a country's geopolitical interests.

It took decades for the UN to recognize the PRC as legitimate because the US saw it as inconvenient.

She'd also have to answer to a civil war.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Jose posted:

So this week is trump's first true chance to completely destroy the global economy as the US is about to hit its debt ceiling and while campaigning he said the US should just default lol

This would cause a global recession :allears:

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

ThomasPaine posted:

Hmm seriously considering leaving Labour now after the response to indyref2. Looks like they're going to shack up with the Tories again. Sorry Corbs I love you but you dropped the ball here bigstyle.

Labour were absolutely always going to be unionist on this

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

'Brexit shows why leaving a political and fiscal union with your most important trading partner is a bad idea....so this is why Scotland should leave the UK'.

I reckon quite a few people might see the EU as a more important trading partner than the UK

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
Yeah I mean, Baroness Royall was pretty clear that if the government are going to ignore 100-strong defeats there's gently caress all benefit in ping-pong, the amendments aren't getting accepted and that's that.

There's honestly no benefit to firing this amendment back, it's political suicide.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

TinTower posted:

They keep putting the amendment back in. Again and again and again, if needs be.

How do you imagine this goes? Because I imagine it goes like this:

Back to Commons.
Passed without amendment.
Back to Commons.
Passed without amendment.
Back to Commons.
Passed without amendment.
Public support drops for Lords.
Back to Commons.
Support drops further.
etc

At the very extreme edge, this goes a whole year without the country somehow setting itself on fire and the Parliament Act is invoked and it becomes law.

Why is this useful?

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
Seriously TT, you seem to not actually understand how Parliament works.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

namesake posted:

While it's not a solution now, the House of Lords can't be relied upon as a real check for all the reasons they aren't going to do anything now.

Agitate, organise, mobilise. It's the only real defense.

I honestly believe there's nothing anyone, legislative body or otherwise, can do to stop a Brexit harder than Pissflaps is for JCorbz.

What we need to do is get loud and sway public opinion against this poo poo.

TinTower posted:

If the Tories did it on reducing the age of consent, then I think Labour would be justified on doing it on quite possibly the biggest constitutional issue of a generation.

Like, even if you saw the EU citizens amendment as disposable, there is nothing wrong with the Lords insisting on parliamentary sovereignty. After all, didn't we vote to Take Back Control™?

THE TORIES ARE LITERALLY NEVER ACCEPTING THIS AMENDMENT, WHAT ABOUT THIS IS HARD.

A 100+ peer defeat is loving huge and the government told them to gently caress off and pass it anyway. Lords will do nothing but hold up the bill for a year and sign their own death warrant, along with Labour and the Lib Dems' with it.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

TinTower posted:

Ping-pong is theoretically infinite. The government would have to wait for a new session of Parliament.

So... in 2 months?

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
Do you understand how the Parliament Act works? Because I don't understand why you think there'd be a general election between now and the Act being invoked.

TinTower posted:

It requires a year after the first Second Reading.

Okay so it needs to be a year after Second Reading and in back-to-back sessions. So... 2018.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

TinTower posted:

The Lords insisted on more rounds of ping pong on retroreflective tape on HGVs than they did about parliamentary sovereignty.

Amazing how things differ when the government doesn't ignore 100+ peer defeats.

Seriously, I can't quite tell if you're just doing the dull party political thing or you actually don't understand how Lords works.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

TinTower posted:

Both Houses of Parliament must agree to the same text for a bill to pass. That's common to nearly all bicameral legislatures.

Even with the Parliament Act, the Lords still retains a right to amend legislation and insist on its amendments.

The Lords can delay a bill for a year. We barely even went a week here.

What does delaying this bill for a year achieve? The government is literally never accepting these amendments; if they were, they'd have done it in the face of a 100 peer defeat.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Cerv posted:

Events can still derail hard Brexit. A worsening economy could force Tories to come to their senses. And the longer it rumbles on, the clearer it will be that ministers have no plan. At every point progressives must fight, from securing pension rights for EU nationals who have paid taxes here for years to staying in Europol so we don’t see a recreation of the Costa del Crime.

I really don't think it'd lead to public opinion turning against Brexit. Quite the opposite; all that'd happen is people would get hosed off with the Lords and Labour/Lib Dems for blocking THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE (tm)

kustomkarkommando posted:

Are you arguing for abolishing the upper house entirely?

No? Quite the opposite, I'd prefer the upper house had more power, but not in its current unelected form. That doesn't mean I'm going to ignore how the House of Lords works today in practice, which is that if the government has no interest in their amendments, they're poo poo out of luck.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

TinTower posted:

The Civil Service wouldn't even implement the Pet All Kittens Act during purdah, let alone the greatest constitutional change in a century.

Emailing my MP immediately to get this Act through, but only if we can amend it to also include dogs.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Jose posted:

Hummus is alright i don't know why people love it so much though. I'm currently eating some nik naks

I hope those are Nice N Spicy

(Rib N Saucy is an okay second)

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Cheers for this, needed a good chuckle.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

A 'no you' and a 'you're a Tory' in one sentence. Lovely stuff.

Though didn't the Dutch just vote for a centre right coalition last night ?

No? If they somehow actually manage to broker a coalition deal, it'll be like 5-6 parties

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Pissflaps posted:

I've been let down by my Dutch politics fact checkers.

What is the political leaning of the coalition likely to be?

gently caress knows, depends if they can get the Greens on board. Personally I don't reckon they'll be able to get one together, but if it does it'd be pretty centrist: VVD are centre-right, CD/D66 centrist, they could add CU (centrist) but that only gives them a majority of 1. More likely they'll have to court Labour (centre-left) or Greens/Socialists (both left) for a majority of 5 or 10.

It'll probably just get rerun.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy
Centrist ain't centre-right Flaps. I give the Lib Dems tons of poo poo but they're not the Tories (they just do a good impression sometimes)

LemonDrizzle posted:

The most likely outcome by far is VVD-CDA-D66 + filler, which means a centre-right government. VVD is on the right, CDA are christian democrats (so also on the right), and D66 are centrists. That trio gets 71 of the 76 seats needed for a majority, so whoever makes up the filler isn't going to have a whole lot of say over the government's direction.

Don't really agree with that. Whoever makes up the filler can just pull support and bring down the government whenever.

mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

ThomasPaine posted:

QT used to make me angry but now I just laugh. How is it actually possible for the public to be this consistently ignorant.

We just voted for economic suicide nothing surprises me any more

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mfcrocker
Jan 31, 2004



Hot Rope Guy

Jedit posted:

And Ed Miliband has responded by saying he's about to be announced as the new editor of Heat.

They've gotta catch up ground on Teen Vogue somehow

  • Locked thread