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Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Fates End posted:

Though you could argue that that one is because she knew what her master was going for and let her keep that open as a "possibility".
Actually, wasn't that what the garden conversation with Dlanor was about?

I actually rechecked that section, and look what it says:

ProfessorProf posted:

"...I know. 'Kinzo is dead at the starting time for all games'. Beato has already spoken that truth. In that battle, Battler-kun could only have achieved a draw at best. He most certainly had no chance at all of winning."
"...You're right. If you just say that, the whole fight's already over. Why didn't you use that red? Don't tell me it was because of a stalemate or something like that."



States exactly what I argued there​.

It was a different red truth that was denied usage, perhaps because it might be tricky to build proof for it.

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Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Qrr posted:

Except that's the thing - Erika didn't do a single thing to create an alibi for anyone in the mansion. She wasn't in the mansion. She wasn't even the one that sealed Genji's door. The only reason the people in the mansion have alibis is because of red text. Same for Krauss. In fact, when Bern stated in red that they had alibis and someone complained, her only justification is that the red was true because it's red.

So frankly I don't know why Erika did all this bizarre poo poo. Presumably because her reason to exist is to amuse Bern and Bern is amused by her antics.

(I also don't know why she didn't seal the windows from the inside, because seriously she had no reason to climb on the outside of the house).

Fine, let's play this game.

The ones in the mansion have an alibi unless all of them, including Battler, are in on it. At which point, why are we even pretending this is a story anymore. That's the point of the red truth - to eliminate stupid possibilities like "someone created a situation where they could slip out for an hour and not be noticed ever being gone because there's nothing to prove that didn't happen".
Similarly, that Genji never left the house is backed by scientific analysis, as was noted:

ProfessorProf posted:

"This is all information gathered from the people involved. It isn't a red truth without a basis. It's a truth due to proper reasoning constructed from testimony. Not only testimony, but the limits of scientific investigations such as collecting fingerprints were used here."
"After all, Kinzo-san's study is a treasure vault with all kinds of chemicals! I obtained all sorts of results to create an ultimate truth, infinitely close to a red truth. This isn't a science mystery, so I'll spare you the details."

As Erika swaggered around the cathedral, she arrogantly touted her scientific knowledge. She had thorough knowledge of all the chemicals in Kinzo's study and had used them to conduct a scientific investigation, which had now been acknowledged and made into a red truth by Bernkastel. She didn't explain the details, but she had obtained results that were convincing even without the red truth.

Collecting fingerprints with aluminum powder. Component analysis of the mud under someone's shoe and various chemical reactions from the clinging rain water. Erika just walked into someone else's study several times and used several chemicals however she pleased, all without asking the family's permission. However, no one could fault her for this. The pieces couldn't hinder any action the detective might take for the investigation. That's the power of the detective's authority.

<snip>

It had already been made clear in red that, after transferring the phone call to Natsuhi, Genji had gone straight back to the waiting room. And because of Erika's scientific investigation, further red had been added, saying Genji never left the mansion after 24:00... Because of this, it's been made clear that Genji couldn't have reached the guesthouse, much less the cousins' room...


They also acknowledge that Krauss and Kinzo were capable of committing the crime, and that's denied by Natsuhi in what's pretty much this conversation:
"So you, Krauss, and Kinzo are the only ones without alibis. Are you going to assert that since you're innocent, Krauss or Kinzo must have committed it?"
"Not happening."

And each of those pieces are what provides the red used in the update.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Qrr posted:

The Genji thing, sure. As for the others, maybe if that had been the argument used it would be ok. But that wasn't the argument they used - the argument they used was "The red truth is simply truth, and there is no need to provide evidence, proof, or room for a counterargument". Actually, she said that in red, so she has straight up in red contradicted her right to ignore Battler's red truth. There's nothing in there about it only applying to witches.

See the quote I showed above? The red has been noted as unusable as a detective technique, by Knox's 2nd.

In the same way that the red says "there's only 5 master keys" to block "there can be any number of master keys that the servants don't have", the original use of it was dropped to block things like Tiny Bombs from being every single counterplay. Of course, it's gained other uses since then, but still. In this case, it's also supported by the testimony of everyone in the dining room that "everyone was together, and no one left until 1:00", with the red mainly being "no, there wasn't some way of putting a paper cutout there to fool everyone's eyes and sneak away".

Qrr posted:

Natsuhi does not have the ability to say that Krauss and Kinzo didn't do it. She may not want to put the blame on them, but what she wants doesn't matter when determining the guilty party.

Actually, what she wants does matter, because the red truth is on the same meta level as the question as to whether Natsuhi wants to make Krauss the culprit or not.

ProfessorProf posted:



<snip>

"I won't allow you to treat my husband like the culprit!! My husband is the next head of the Ushiromiya family!! The only person who will inherit the glory of the Ushiromiya family! I will never let you treat him like a criminal...!!"
"...Are you sure, Natsuhi...? If you refuse to suspect Krauss, then... you'll be the only one left. Alibis have been proven for everyone else, in other words, Hempel's Raven...! Even without any evidence, it will be determined that you are the culprit...!"

That red truth is also not acknowledged in the game's verdict, where "he died soon after Natsuhi woke up" is changed to "he died between 24:00 and 1:00". That red truth was just a Bernkastel Bonus.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Lord Koth posted:

No matter how much people complain, the established rule for a multiple games now is that only witches are allowed to use the Red Truth. So continuing to complain about how Battler's use of it was shot down due to it being completely unsubstantiated while the witches can do so is silly. You have to accept that fact, or this argument is not going to go anywhere.

Battler's usage of it was effectively the same as using illegal evidence. Sure, it proves something, but it's also inadmissible and the point needs to be proved by other methods. And, while Erika does have a witch directly supporting her, she's done a drat good job of building a very solid case based on actual evidence even before Red Text came into play. There is certainly still wiggle room to fit between both the evidence and the Red Truths we currently have, but no one in the game has found a crack yet.

Anyways, here are some of the Red Texts we currently have, as reminders.
George, Jessica, Maria, Rosa, and Genji really are dead. Now admittedly we don't have it in red the exact timestamps of death for each one, but even if you want to use the theory that George somehow killed Krauss and made the body look like his, you now have to explain how he died. Or how Krauss made a phone call right before he was killed, despite Erika in the next room listening to everything.
Speaking of which Krauss is really dead as well, along with not being the culprit. And I'm going to note here that Bern waited to give that Red until after Natsuhi refused to allow consideration of him as a possible culprit. Even giving her a second chance to foist off the crimes on him.

Remember, the witches are here to be entertained. They're perfectly willing to forgo the truth so long as the circumstances are entertaining for them. Natsuhi breaking down and pushing the accusations off on the otherwise suspicious and missing Krauss probably would have been allowed, in spite of Bern sitting on that Red Truth.

Speaking of which, it to some degree is tricky trying to establish a timeline for that call. We know that soon after that, Krauss was killed thanks to the Bernkastel Bonus. We don't know how soon that happened, but we can say that the calls were definitely real, again thanks to Bernkastel Bonus.
We know that it's near the time all the murders are discovered. If it's before, then no one in the guesthouse has an alibi time-wise. If it's after, I'm pretty sure they were moving as a group after that, so everyone in the guesthouse has an alibi. Betting it's purposefully vague for that reason.

Though now that I look at it again, that's also the last time the caller, well, calls. So it could 100% be just Krauss on the other side of the line. For now, I'll be considering my next moves based on the assumption that no one in the guesthouse group would have been able to slip away to a hidden space to make a call at the time Genji's body was found. However, we can make the distinct note that Kanon and Gohda are not the caller. This does not prevent someone else from acting on their behalf. It should also be somewhat logical to make the guess that when Hideyoshi was killed, Krauss was already dead, unless soon after can qualify as more than 5 hours.

That does make Hideyoshi's death tricky, because there were no signs of anyone entering the room between Natsuhi entering and Hideyoshi entering, implying that they were there beforehand. Assuming Nanjo was not in on it (though it's not illogical to assume he's in on the Beatrice conspiracy - most solutions involve him lying), we can assume that none of the dead cousins could have been hiding there. Everyone else appears to have been in the parlour with Erika. I refuse to have a witch as the killer, so there must be something I'm missing.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Tender Child Loins posted:

Why couldn't Kanon be the caller, though? That thought does lead to the macabre conclusion that Krauss may have been killed in the room next door to Natsuhi's bedroom.

That would also require Gohda to be in on it, and Kanon would have to be so close that Natsuhi would be able to hear the sounds of them calling out to her on the phone. The caller speaks directly before and after Kanon and Gohda knock and call out, with barely any gap in between, though it does seem that the caller can hear a bit of what's on Natsuhi's end. Timing's way too close to be a thing.

Edit: What's that shot of Genji looking at the bloody handprints on the door from? I only vaguely remember that being a thing in any of the first four episodes.

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 08:13 on Apr 19, 2017

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Qrr posted:

And once again, they literally use the red as a detective technique there. Yes, they could have had other explanations for why they said that in red - if they'd said it because it would require an 8 person conspiracy or some very blind people, that might be ok. But that wasn't the explanation given. The red was given and when evidence was requested the response was "Nope, no evidence at all".


Red truth is true. Whether Natsuhi wants to make Krauss the culprit isn't. I'm not sure why you relate the two.

And there is no evidence (besides supernatural evidence) that Krauss is even dead. Whether he died soon after Natsuhi woke up or between 24:00 and 1:00, it doesn't matter - there's no proof at all of either case.
Again, you forget the original concept of red text.

Umineko, Part 48 posted:

"No matter what magic move I use, you can always keep running away by repeating 'lack of information' and 'denying the basis."
"...Even though I would still win in the end that way, it would be extremely boring. Because of that, I think I'll give you that 'information' and 'basis' that you want."
"However, you'll probably doubt each word I say. That isn't bad in itself. I also will use every possible move to make you submit. I don't dislike our posture of searching out the best moves for ourselves."
"...But that won't make a game. So I set up this rule."
"Everything I speak in red is the truth! There's absolutely no need to doubt it!"

The whole point is to avoid permanent stasis by Devil's Proof, by skipping things like "maybe there was a way for them to vanish without anyone noticing they vanished", or "perhaps everyone thought that cardboard cutout was them when they left because you can't prove that it didn't happen", or "everyone fell asleep thanks to some drug X and they walked out, and no one noticed this because their memory was altered by drug Y". It's not a detective's tool used as a proof. It's a witch's tool used to establish boundaries on the game so that perpetual check isn't established.

Nothing stops anyone not a witch from using the red, as Battler did at Beato's request in order to remove himself from the game in episode 4. However, it is not accepted as fact by the rules of the game.

ProfessorProf posted:

"...I know. 'Kinzo is dead at the starting time for all games'. Beato has already spoken that truth. In that battle, Battler-kun could only have achieved a draw at best. He most certainly had no chance at all of winning."
"...You're right. If you just say that, the whole fight's already over. Why didn't you use that red? Don't tell me it was because of a stalemate or something like that."


So Erika builds up evidence, and confirms the validity of the evidence (and absence of "unknown drug X" by getting Bern to repeat it), in the same way Battler used to have to require Beato to do. It's not used as a detective's tool, it's used as an anti-stupidity tool.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Qrr posted:

Once again, we're kind of talking past each other. I can accept Erika creating seals and having them verified by red truth. I can accept Erika listening to a silent room for 8 hours straight and getting red truth out of it.

What I can't accept is Krauss - Erika did nothing for that. There's no evidence to confirm the validity of. There's no evidence at all

And I can't accept the red for everyone in the manor. Because once again, they didn't provide any evidence for it to confirm the validity of. If they'd approached it differently it could have worked, but instead they went straight to the red instantly, and when asked for evidence they refused because red.



And other people using red is absolutely fact per the rules of the game. Remember Battler trying to say something that wasn't true in red? He failed. Red text is true, whoever says it.

"They discussed the family stuff in the dining room until 1, with Shannon and Kanon in attendance the whole time" was stated multiple times over. That's the testimony and evidence. It's possible to doubt that, but again we come into the whole "can't prove they didn't mistake a cardboard cutout for any particular person the entire time", and that's the whole reason the red exists.
Krauss being confirmed as dead when required is not actually part of the trial, again if you read that. It was noted even in the verdict that his murder was completely based on circumstantial evidence, and the fact that the possibility of his guilt was denied by Natsuhi was why he had an alibi for it.

Again, anyone can use the red. It's not accepted as fact if you're not part of the witch side, and if you're part of the detective side you can request for it to be repeated to lock down details. This has been stated at least twice, and you're just trying to counter it and ignore the fact that was said because you don't like that it was said. Which you can totally do, but if you're not going to play by the rules of the game, then why play at all?

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
A thing I didn't consider is the family of the servant who died. So we have two people here: cliff-baby and servant-family. Cliff-baby has a possibility of being anyone of the same general age, so Jessica and Battler are the main suspects there. Let's assume mystery caller part 2 is the one behind the set of murders. If so, it can't be Jessica unless Nanjo is also in on it. It remains possible for Battler.

Now, what about any possible children the servant may have had? The husband was described as aged, so I'll take that to mean he was quite old. Given relative ages, it can't be Kumasawa or Genji. Similarly, unlikely to be Shannon or Kanon. We know Kyrie, Natsuhi, Rudolf, Krauss, and Eva's parentage. Rosa, Hideyoshi, and the cousins are dead. Gohda remains a possibility.

So let's say we have Battler or Gohda. The crime is equally possible for both, though I really have no idea regarding Hideyoshi right now. Everyone seems to have an alibi for that save Natsuhi (and the dead), but again there must be something I'm missing.

Edit: I should also point out that Ange knew of Battler's parentage, meaning she must have been told by either Rudolf or Kyrie prior to their deaths.

whitehelm posted:

Did you miss when I told Cyouni how Natsuhi could kill Rosa and get away from the murder scene?

Yeah, that definitely was the missing piece that was necessary. I originally assumed that their case was that Natsuhi also fled at that time, but didn't consider that all that was needed for that was Natsuhi's entrance at that point, because no one had an alibi past 1:00 anyways, while anyone could have left past 3:00.

BurningStone posted:

First we had Rosa reveal she saw a person fall down a cliff and die. Now we have Natsuhi push two people down a cliff and maybe die. Ushiromiyas have the worst hobbies. So, speculation!

I'm 100% waiting for Eva or Kyrie to physically throw three people off that cliff, given the escalation we're seeing.

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Apr 19, 2017

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

resurgam40 posted:

This leads me to the conclusion that whoever Cliff Baby is, Battler isn't it. But his outburst at the end here indicates that he was, at least involved... and very possibly could have made the calls on Cliff Baby's behalf. Which means- sorry, CottonWolf :sigh: - that I must once again drag out the "conspiracy" drum, because once again, it's the only way I can see how everything works.

Because, if Battler is an accomplice- and I believe that he is- then according to Knox's 9th, his viewpoint cannot be trusted. This allowed him to see Kinzo out during the storm, a man said in red to be dead at the start of every game*, allowed him to see the six corpses of the first twilight as dead without examining the, and allowed the whole "mysterious letter with the ring" thing to happen as the game told it... but not how it probably actually happened. Nothing that has happened from his viewpoint can be trusted now... which opens up a lot of options. For example, Battler could have made the calls himself, and the second one he made could have been taken straight from the dining room, with most of the family present, as I hypothesized before.

Battler cannot be the caller. Let's dispense with this now. Unless everyone in the dining room was in on it, Battler has an alibi for the time the calls were made.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

thetruegentleman posted:

He doesn't need to be the caller: he only needs to have the call orchestrated. Besides that, there isn't anything suspicious about using a phone to begin with, so this really isn't a case where an alibi is even needed; especially since Natushi was the only person to ever actually hear the conversation, and so is the only person who could claim it was threatening to begin with.

If my theory about the caller being Krauss is correct, then Battler as a secondary medium is not required.

Normally, I'd say using a phone isn't suspicious...but anyone overhearing that would get instantly suspicious, and only those Genji, Natsuhi, and Krauss left the room before 1:00. This is backed by the red. Lines like...

ProfessorProf posted:

"...Your name is Natsuhi, Mother. It has the kanji for a season in it. Pretty nice name. However, just because your name is Natsuhi, that doesn't necessarily mean that you like summer. Which season do you really like, Mother...?"

"I want you to tell me you're happy, you murderer. How dare you act like a normal, neat-freak mother. You make me want to vomit. Do you want that to land on your husband and daughter as well? You don't, do you? You want me to keep quiet, don't you? Yeah, I'll keep quiet. See, aren't you happy? Aren't you happy?!"

"...I won't appear in front of anyone until you introduce me. Don't worry. Oh yeah, it's useless to try and search for me. Your mansion is huge. You even have a phone system in it. And I'm sure you don't want to meet me, right? Or else, do you want to expose me and introduce me to everyone...? Introduce me to Jessica too. Tell her I'm her older brother by one year. Heheheheheheheheheheheheheheh!!"

"As long as you follow my orders, I'll keep your secret, Mother. Don't disobey me. I'm already very close by to you. I can easily tell whether you've turned your lights off, or whether you're on the phone. If I wished to, I could even kiss your sleeping face."

That would sound pretty suspicious to anyone else in the same room.

resurgam40 posted:

And why, pray tell, couldn't the rest of the dining room have been in on it? Remember, Erika's ridiculous God Mode only covers where she is at the time, and she was only present for the finding of the gold, but not for anything after. And the last thing she witnessed is an argument between Natsuhi and everyone else about the successorship; everyone's feelings about Natsuhi took a dip there, and this is in addition to all of the doubts surrounding Krauss' embezzlement and the conspiracy the other siblings had going on. So is it so hard to believe that there was a plan to at least make Natsuhi sweat, even if the murders were not especially planned? Eva and Kyrie both had investigators going over the past of their eldest sibling and pretty much everyone else in the family is smarter than Krauss and Kyrie...

Hypothesis: Cliff Baby came to relatives after Battler found the gold with an idea on how to get Krauss/Natsuhi to confess embezzlement, and told the story about the baby. Then, once Natsuhi leaves, everyone hatches a plan to have Battler pretend to be Cliff Baby and call her... maybe they went as far as to plan to fake the murders in the first twilight as well. Remember, Erika didn't examine those bodies when they first showed up. Maybe they really did get up and walk away, and were subsequently killed. Could even have been that Hideyoshi's murder was meant to be faked too, only that one turned out real.

I did consider this for a bit, but then I also realized there was another call. Somewhere around the time Natsuhi woke up and had Genji's death reported to her, the mystery caller called Natsuhi and had her hear Krauss's voice. Unless there was some weird time where Battler managed to vanish during the cousins' body investigation, that's not possible for him. It's also not possible before that, because Intellectual Rapist Wall Spider.

Now, this doesn't exclude anyone else in the same room from being in on this hypothetical plan, but Battler is definitely out.

Edit: Also, Erika didn't examine them, but Nanjo did. Also this hypothetical conspiracy would have to include Shannon and Kanon.

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Apr 19, 2017

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

resurgam40 posted:

I believe it has to include those two, as I suspect Kanon in particular of being Cliff Baby... and that Nanjo did as I suspect he'd done before and lied through his teeth. Detective authority guarantees the truth, but it doesn't guarantee that anyone other than the detective hold that truth or tell it to the detective (Knox's 9th, I think). Which is why most detectives have trusted morticians with which to discuss bodies, or just do the drat autopsies themselves.

But the point that Battler couldn't have made the other call does stand, so I ameliorate my theory to say that Battler made one of the calls, and that someone else made the other. Presumably whoever had absconded with Krauss was the one who made the second call (and probably killed hem right after that call). Who's actions weren't being followed at that point? That might be a candidate.

Well let's see. Alive guesthouse group was monitored by Erika, so out. Gohda and Kanon were at the door, so out. That leaves Shannon, Kumasawa, and dead guesthouse people. Of those, only one is male: George.

I by far prefer my theory of it being Krauss, with assistance from Genji in faking that one call. Less moving parts, but for now it does have the Hideyoshi problem.

Additionally, I will submit this: Cliff-Baby and Beatrice are unrelated in this mystery.

Interesting note: In Battler vs Dlanor, Beatrice switches to plural in "kill us". A suggestion that there's multiple people on the Beatrice conspiracy, given Battler's life hadn't yet been threatened at that point?

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Apr 19, 2017

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

thetruegentleman posted:

Uh oh, Battler was only monitored by Erika until he screamed, at which point she ran off to look at all the tape, so she never actually bothered to check that someone was dead at the time Battler actually screamed: her entire theory is bunk if Battler has a second personality to make his thoughts unreliable, or if he ran out of the room to find help.

That...is actually a viable answer. I'm hesitant to accept it as the answer simply because that plan would rely on Battler knowing Erika was listening, and would run off to check the seals before anyone else could confirm. To some degree, I'd also question the absence of blood splatter on Battler from the rushed killings then, but I'm not sure if that'd become relevant at any point..

DLord posted:

I see what you did there.

Cliff-Baby and Beatrice are unrelated in this mystery. So with this one of a worthless case, with Red being disallowed lets just move away from everything with Miss I'm an OC because she can't exist.

Now if we take the cliff baby as on of the younger people on this island then it would have to be Kanon or Shannon for about the right ages.

So more random questing to turn the table will be needed.

Fine, I'll adjust my statement. Beatrice is not involved in the murders in this episode. If Cliff-Baby is Battler, this does not discount Beatrice and Battler being related.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Qrr posted:

The "dead" people may not have beent dead. We know they die by the time of the trial, and that no one looking at their corpse would be confused. Neither of those is relevant, especially if there's a conspiracy. So any of them could have done it.

Well, there were really only two times people split from the group. Once, with Hideyoshi and Natsuhi, and once when they broke into Kinzo's study, with Rudolf, Kyrie, Gohda, and I think Shannon. Do you contend that the second group went and killed the "hiding" people during that trip?

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Skylight posted:

That's definitely a theory... Were any clues given that might indicate that they went and did this, though? If there are no such clues, we're gonna run straight into Knox's Eighth. "It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented."

e: I am deeply CONFUSED about how to feel regarding this AVATAR. Allow me to speak, though: whoever has done this has spelled "sentence" INCORRECTLY.

That "to" in the first sentence will continue to irritate ME.

Qrr posted:

I still contend that they aren't following the rules, and that part of their definition of being a witch is "we don't have to follow the rules". We even have examples of Beatrice doing that - she'll assert in red that a room is a closed room and nothing could get in from outside, then claim that she sent a magic stake girl in from outside to kill them.

The red truth always continually has the implicit caveat of "outside of magic" or "by humans".

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Ralphomon posted:

Without love, it cannot be solved. I guess that's emblematic of this 5th game - with Lambdadelta as GM, she doesn't really care that much as to whether Battler can actually solve the mystery (and she's said before I can't remember exactly when that she doesn't know why Beato makes so many superfluous or risky moves - Beato's love for Battler (i.e. the mystery author's love for their audience) means she has to leave clues so that he can solve it, whereas LD would just be like, screw it, Victim X is in a (pun not intended) hermetically sealed vault deep under Rokkenshima and still managed to get stabbed through the face, *cacklecackle*, it's coz I'm a witch). So she constructs this loveless mess of circumstantial evidence that Bern and (terrible, terrible) Erika can just waltz into and blow wide open to prove that a witch didn't do it. But since we've established that Beato's real motivation is not to assert her existence but instead get Battler to remember his sin, the whole thing is empty and self-serving, and kinda mechanical (turn the Knox's Decalogue crank, of course Natsuhi did it coz no-one else could have).

But anyway, roll on Game 6! Excited to see how Battler gets off that sword (pulling it through himself hiltwards like Dante from the first Devil May Cry?)

This is not a path I would have considered, but it does explain a bit. If this is their definition of 'love' for the story, then Ronove saying that the story was without 'honour' also makes sense. Having a story which proposes that it can be solved yet hides the tools to do so from your sight - that's a story without 'honour'. That said, that means there are clues which have not been presented which can solve the CASE.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

tiistai posted:

Well this blue is laughably easy to counter with Knox's 8th. In fact, it was already pretty much directly addressed during the trial.


vvv Exactly. Of course it can also apply to self-contained mysteries, like the case in Kinzo's study.

Ah, but that was before that conversation, before we got an idea of what they consider to be 'love' in the case of that mystery (or board, as Ronove might refer to it). Given the clues that have now been presented, it's possible to declare that the solution to the entire case of episode 5 is that the mystery, lacking love or honour, is purposefully created as unsolvable by Lambdadelta. Ronove draws a direct comparison to Beato's games, saying Lambda's game lacks love (or honour, depending on the perspective). Here, we're given the definition of love as it relates to the mystery genre, and the specific reference to works that do not follow the Decalogue is brought up. These are now clues that have been presented.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

idonotlikepeas posted:

I'm willing to say that isn't the case, from a meta-perspective. Regardless of the attitudes of the non-existent witches, I believe that Ryukishi07 would want to give us a solvable mystery. He seems to be trying to keep it balanced enough that fans of both fantasy and mystery genres can participate.

Honestly, I'm probably going to keep taking swings at it even though I feel there's a decent chance that it's non-solvable. Regardless of its state of solvability, there's still likely clues that can be used on the other four episodes. For example, just off the top of my head, we've gotten a major reference to Battler's sin being a broken promise that he's forgotten.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Well, that happened. How amusing.

We've already constructed numerous scenarios that don't violate the red in which Natsuhi is not the culprit. I do wonder if Battler is going to use one of those, or another that we haven't yet considered.

We know the whydunnit is solvable, and I will continue to insist that the motive is Shannon's. Attempting to remind Battler of his broken promise (in English) six years ago.
From there, I will stake my bets on the culprit being Shannon/Sayo (or possibly Kanon, which I'll consider again after I do a check through the original LP). Whoever it is, we know they're aided by Nanjo and likely Kumasawa.
So then the big question is how, which I will need to actually look through again to consider.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

CottonWolf posted:

I think all three of these points are probably right. But also, they only get at a shallow why. It doesn't answer the deeper more fundamental question of: "Why was a promise from a 12 year old to a 10 year old so important?"

I can come up with a few theories, but they're all pretty dark, and I can't think of any explicit evidence in support of them, so by Knox's 8th, they're probably wrong. But I don't think just "because promise" gets us close enough. I also think it has to be, at least, Shannon and Kanon. They're close enough that I don't think one would act without the other, and I definitely don't see them being willing to kill one another.

E: Also, somewhat upset that Battler's sprite isn't now holding a longsword at all times.

To some degree, I do agree. Even if I am correct and can provide proof to substantiate my argument, we're missing the deeper why, and that's not something we can answer except by being Battler or getting more information.

I definitely think that both Kanon and Shannon are involved, but the real question is which one's the one guiding it. Even if Shannon's motive was the guiding factor, I feel there's a non-zero chance that Kanon is the one being the primary executor.

CottonWolf posted:

I think it was tiistai who pointed this out to me when I made a pretty similar point earlier. He's not interested in disproving witches per se, he just wants to disprove their involvement in the murders. And considering that it looks like he's now solved the mystery, if he needs to be magic to prove what happened, good for him, I guess?

Well, he started out wanting to deny witches, but that came primarily because their involvement in his life was 100% murder-related. Once he got more used to it, he started wanting to distinguish the two. The Beatrice tea scenes, for example.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Artificer posted:

Wait. Huh. What was the truth Battler reached? How did thinking about without love it cannot be seen reveal everything to him suddenly? I don't understand how he applied that sentence to everything.

WHAT?!

Without 'love', the truth behind the game cannot be seen. Given how love has been defined in the conversation between Battler and Dlanor, it makes sense to solve the mystery off that.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

CottonWolf posted:

I think all three of these points are probably right. But also, they only get at a shallow why. It doesn't answer the deeper more fundamental question of: "Why was a promise from a 12 year old to a 10 year old so important?"

I can come up with a few theories, but they're all pretty dark, and I can't think of any explicit evidence in support of them, so by Knox's 8th, they're probably wrong. But I don't think just "because promise" gets us close enough. I also think it has to be, at least, Shannon and Kanon. They're close enough that I don't think one would act without the other, and I definitely don't see them being willing to kill one another.

E: Also, somewhat upset that Battler's sprite isn't now holding a longsword at all times.

Did a bit of reading on my way to and from work, and I can't help but feel something else happened six years ago that we don't know about. The way they refer to Battler's vehicle paranoia makes it seem as though it's something that wasn't there before, given they'd probably have been traveling together then too.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Interesting. So there's a suggestion that Kinzo's body was used as a substitute for Genji's temporarily. What avenues does that open up?

Also there's the red that the bodies were not moved after they were killed, making the conspiracy theory a lot more possible.

Zack Ater posted:

:suspense:

Well, that was certainly cathartic, at least.

So we have red and blue swords for red truths and blue... suppositions, I guess? And now there's a gold sword for gold truth. It makes me wonder if Erika's purple scythe is going to lead to some more color text. Are we going to end up with a rainbow? I've also been wondering for a while now if Kannon's, the goats', etc. colored swords are related at all to the colored text. Probably not, but it seems inconsistent.

I think it's implied that the purple scythe is just a combination of red and blue.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

CottonWolf posted:

Shannon is the cliff baby.

I somehow missed this in the series of updates. This would make a lot of sense, and would solidify the why dunnit presented.

Looking at the who dunnit, if it's one of those two that's the prime mover, I think it has to be Kanon. We see early on that he's willing to take action on Shannon's behalf when she just accepts it as part of being furniture.

I'll also note that even if the caller is male, that doesn't mean cliff baby is.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

resurgam40 posted:

Whatever do you... Oh.

Never going to live that one down, am I? :sigh:

It's quite amazing. You should have expected that when you made that post, though, tempting fate like that.

The avatar itself is GLORIOUS.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Apparently the person who said Battler was the culprit because he wanted to make all the attractive women not wear pants was correct. Battler has taken Beato's place, and is now attempting to make all his female relatives (and stake personifications, and EVA) cosplay.

Also, seeing that Krauss section in context is just :allears:.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
I continue to be amazed at the depth of Battler's incompetence. How the hell did he manage to trap himself inside his own closed room? That takes impressive levels of skill. Also, hello two new characters.

I really should catch up on my reread so I can get to the how-analysis. I'm still thinking Kanon's the prime mover as a result of behaviour, but without the how it's missing a chunk that I'm not happy with.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
If there's complete victory/defeat before the 8th episode, the game can't continue. So this defeat is both merely a temporary setback and foreseeable, as Battler stomping over his unresisting opponents for three episodes would be amusing, but quite boring. So I don't know why people are so up in arms about a result that should be unsurprising.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
My running assumption so far is that sleeping drugs are involved. I really should have been more alert to if those were mentioned in updates with Nanjo.

I'm pretty sure that the Beatrice conspiracy is intersecting in some way with an Eva/Rudolf/Rosa and group conspiracy, but I'm unsure exactly how it's working out right now.

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 00:50 on Apr 29, 2017

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

tiistai posted:

I could probably come up with something at some point.


No explicit denial of anyone hiding there, but Beatrice says the following in red: "Natsuhi's room was exactly the same, just like usual! [...] There is no fraud or trick, there is no means of secret passage and no hidden place! [...] The definition of a closed room is the same as always!"

Battler didn't explicitly search the room, but he was the detective, for what you think that's worth. You're free to argue that the definition of a closed room doesn't include people not hiding inside, but remember what happened when Battler tried to pull that earlier in the episode?

Well let's see.

"Indeed. The term 'closed room' refers to a room where the inside and the outside are completely cut off from each other. Naturally, it will be impossible to even affect things across that boundary line, much less enter or escape across it. This includes an all-inclusive denial of the existence of hidden doors, as well as all possibility of intervention from the outside. Henceforth, this shall be referred to as... 'Beatrice's Closed Room Definition'!"
"I refer to all types of direct intervention from the outside, such as using a fishing line or a long, thin rod. In conclusion, there are no gaps in the doors and windows through which such tricks will work."
"Very well. I'll add to this definition that interference due to radio waves and related methods of remote control shall be impossible."
"The phones are already unusable, are they not? Ah, whatever. I'll include that too. All direct and indirect methods of interfering with the inside of the closed room from the outside of the room are impossible."
"...Even though it's a closed room, it probably isn't impossible for someone to knock or call out. The closed room definition does not cover whether transmission of intent across the boundary is possible or not."

So Beatrice's definition doesn't stop people hiding inside.

In relation to that particular murder set:
Natsuhi's room was exactly the same, just like usual! The doors and the windows were locked from the inside. There is no fraud or trick, there is no means of secret passage and no hidden place! Natsuhi's own key was in George's pocket, and the inside of the room was closed off. Only the five master keys were left, and Rosa was holding all of them! And let me say this, the parlor's the same. The original key to the parlor is sealed in the servants' room. So unlocking it without the master key is impossible! The definition of a closed room is the same as always!
All of the master keys were under Rosa's control.
After the master keys came into Rosa's control, never did any of them leave her hands! Except for the time when she lent one to Battler to unlock Natsuhi's room.

Technically, this doesn't cover the key box in the servant's room, but arguably that's covered in the same way the key to the parlor is. I'd build a theory both with and without that particular key.

I don't believe there are any others I've missed. I'll probably take a proper swing at this after work tomorrow.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

ZiegeDame posted:

When? That statement is equally true if if the key was in George's pocket until he died, or was slipped in there by Rosa when Battler was staring at Shannon's head-hole. Feels weaselly, but the point of a closed room is that it isn't actually closed. Hmm...

Unless The killer left Shannon alone in the room with the corpse of Ghoda and her fiancee, so she locked herself inside and then killed herself in despair. By smashing her forehead into a paperweight. :sweatdrop:

Battler really didn't explore this one very thoroughly.

I feel it's more along the lines of Natsuhi's room was the same as normal, but that doesn't mean that someone couldn't have hidden in a place such as the closet, which wouldn't have counted as a hidden place. The problem's also that the door was locked from the inside, which also makes most of the key tricks irrelevant.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Very interesting. Checking our standard Dante references:
Augustus: The Roman Emperor under whom Virgil found fame, and the one who took charge of his remains after his death.
Aurora: Roman goddess of dawn

Seems relatively fitting for Ange's new patron.


I presume this is simply another meta component that has no real reflection on the ending, and is simply there to provide a differing perspective. Otherwise, the red of I keep my promises will align badly with the "Everyone shall be revived" part of the epitaph/letter. However, considering how we've seen revival in Episode 4, that could be merely a distraction. I'll probably have to think about this more as I continue going over things.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

Graylien posted:

I swear, if this turns out to be some time travel thing and Battler is his own grandfather I'm going to be pissed

I think it's less that and more a reflection of Kinzo. Kinzo created a sort of distorted reflection which was projected onto his children, and Battler reflects Rudolf in a way that might just approach Kinzo again.

So this brings a new look onto that first section from last update. The other question, I suppose, is wondering if that is only chick-Beatrice, or whether that was something that happened to human-Beatrice at some point as well.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Man, Battler really does seem to be retracing Kinzo's path. Since chick-Beatrice isn't what he expected, he looks like he's trying to revisit the sins of the grandfather to get as close an approximation as he can get. That's the only interpretation I can draw, at least, and it's not a very pleasant one. it does seem to follow the whole "cycles of abuse" theme that we saw in the rest of the game, though.

bman in 2288 posted:

Also, I'm having a bit of difficulty understanding what's happening in '98. Where, specifically, is Ange and Amasuka (assuming he's actually there)?

'98 is really weird because that section is occupying two parts of reality at the same time. There's one worldline where Ange went to Rokkenjima (presumably found a second/a repaired Sakutarou) and died and one where she met Hachijo Toya. The two aren't compatible. Which I suppose brings to mind the question: is '98 even happening, or is it simply a logical construction to show a differing perspective for more information?

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

ZiegeDame posted:

Came here to post this. (I still waiting for the Sayo people to point to the evidence that shows her feelings for George are all a lie.)

I personally subscribe to the Kanon school of thought, but that's easily resolved by second-personality. Shannon/Sayo loves George. Beatrice does not.

An odd thing I noticed while slowly picking over episode 1. Fukuin House servants are usually around for three years, the current set being the exceptions. That would have been around Shannon's fourth year when Battler stopped coming, and Kanon's been around for three years himself.

Secondary interesting note from episode 1:
"Uu-! Maria gets called that all the time too! Gets called unsociable! Like Kanon! Uu-!"
"*giggle* Maria-sama is not unsociable at all."
"Uu-? It was nice to be like him... Uu-."

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

bman in 2288 posted:

Now, to be fair, Ronove and Virgillia are both shipping the hell out of him to his dad/father-figure, Ronove, the cook, and someone who has nothing to do with him in 1986. Unless Amasuka was Beatrice all along, or had something to do with her or something. But that'd have to be waaaaaaaaay out of left field, methinks.

Seriously, those two play a very dangerous shipping game. The kind that makes LITERALLY NO SENSE except for the Ronove thing, and even then, it's only on Ronove's side.

Shipping transcends space, time, and sense. That is why it is shipping.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Interesting that Battler's first move in this game is the confirmation of the love between Kanon and Jessica. The main question will be what's changed as a result of this.

That section about 'winning' feels really weird, but I can't place my finger on exactly what's so odd. Whatever they're competing in, it's a precursor to pursuing their love.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
I definitely agree that the evidence does suggest that Shannon=Kanon, and it's definitely possible within the red text, but...

ProfessorProf posted:

The number of humans on this island has returned to 18... 'I' glanced around at the humans in the parlor.





















This is everyone. The true number of people on the island at the moment...

This is seen by Erika with the eyes of the detective. I'm not sure how to get around that.

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Certainly, we can accept that as an answer. There have been other times both have been in the same room with Erika, however, and I think it'd be a lot harder to disguise that. From this one a few updates later, for example.

ProfessorProf posted:

"Probably. It's natural that you'd guess there were six victims after seeing the crime scene in the guesthouse. There were only four corpses, so it'd make you wonder who the other two were."

...

"...Is that how it is...? That drat witch..."
"So is this really... Beatrice-sama's doing...?"

...

"...Was Krauss nii-san in the habit of locking his door? We just came in without unlocking it."
"...Yes, Krauss-sama did have a habit of locking up."
"A, at this house, Madam has ordered that all non-public areas be locked."
"How many keys can unlock Uncle Krauss's room?"
"In addition to the one key Krauss-sama held, the master keys..."

If we establish that Kanon=Shannon, then per Knox's 8th, clues must have been given to Erika about that.


ZiegeDame posted:

(Incidentally, I tried to use the bit where Beatrice guaranteed the identities of all the unidentified corpses in episode 1 to fight against, but of the six bodies in the shed Shannon's was the only one said to have enough face to actually identify so she wouldn't even be covered there.)

Krauss's was also identifiable, but yes. The only one who really 'identified' Shannon's body was Hideyoshi (and perhaps Eva/Nanjo), and it's already been established that they were also lying about the bodies in episode 5.

Cyouni fucked around with this message at 19:07 on May 5, 2017

Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen
Dlanor disagrees with you.

ProfessorProf posted:

"Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED. If the crime actually was carried out in the cousins' room, clues must have been SHOWN. Because clues were not given to the detective, Lady Erika, who was on the watch for any abnormalities inside that room until morning, such a crime is IMPOSSIBLE...!!"

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Cyouni
Sep 30, 2014

without love it cannot be seen

ZiegeDame posted:

Here's another one for Knox's 8th. In Episode 3, if Kanon=Shannon, the following must have happened: The adults (read: liar Nanjo) finish examining Shannon's body, and move on to the second floor. Shannon now must get up, completely change clothes, hair, etc. and sneak off to the Chapel, which has been unlocked this whole time ( can't actually find mention of a magic circle drawn on the chapel door at least), lock the chapel from the inside and play dead again. All this in the space of time it takes the adults to find the other four bodies.

The most suspicious part of this to me is the change of clothes. If someone had changed their clothes in a hurry like this, per Knox's 8th there would be some evidence. Can such evidence be found?

The other note is it'd be suspicious for a different reason - Jessica and George would presumably know about this. Even if not George, Jessica at the very least. She's lived in the same house for three years, after all. Hell, Krauss or Natsuhi would have to know. They'd certainly find two different Kanon/Shannon bodies suspicious.

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