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ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

tiistai posted:

Battler didn't explicitly search the room, but he was the detective, for what you think that's worth. You're free to argue that the definition of a closed room doesn't include people not hiding inside, but remember what happened when Battler tried to pull that earlier in the episode?

Hmmm, If we take Knox's 8th to mean if Battler didn't see it then it wasn't there, someone hiding inside is right out but it also raises something else.

quote:

After Aunt Rosa finished investigating their deaths, she proclaimed that she would seal this room again, chased the rest of us out, stole back the master key she had lent me, and locked the door again. It seemed that George-aniki had been holding the original key to Aunt Natsuhi's room. She had also collected that.

Rosa finds the key to Natsushi's room, not Battler. If we take the 8th to mean that if Battler didn't find it then it wasn't there, that means the key was not in George's hand when Battler was in the room. Which means Rosa merely pretended to find it there. Beatrice killed the three in Natsushi's room, used the room key to lock up, did some finger-painting on the door, then went outside and left the key to Natsushi's room on the windowsill of the parlor. Later Rosa pockets that key under the guise of making sure all the windows are locked.

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ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

whitehelm posted:

Natsuhi's own key was in George's pocket,

When? That statement is equally true if if the key was in George's pocket until he died, or was slipped in there by Rosa when Battler was staring at Shannon's head-hole. Feels weaselly, but the point of a closed room is that it isn't actually closed. Hmm...

Unless The killer left Shannon alone in the room with the corpse of Ghoda and her fiancee, so she locked herself inside and then killed herself in despair. By smashing her forehead into a paperweight. :sweatdrop:

Battler really didn't explore this one very thoroughly.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
^^^ Because "Everyone was in on it" is a third-rate solution (my apologies to Dame Christie) so if I can come up with two equally valid theories, one where Genji is in on it and one where he isn't, I will choose the one that requires fewer co-conspirators. And Cliff Baby is irrelevant, if it didn't appear in EP 1-4, it isn't necessary for solving the mystery, there's plenty of motivation to kill off this lovely family without it.

e: Seriously though, resolving to take a human life is not an easy thing. It stretches credulity to assume half the the people on this island are ready to slaughter their family to get what they want. Yes, there are multiple conspiracies afoot, but shaking your brother down for money that is rightfully yours anyway is way different from bashing his face into a pulp. Even only-confirmed-murderer Natsushi committed her crime in a moment of passion and opportunity, not premeditation.

Cyouni posted:

I feel it's more along the lines of Natsuhi's room was the same as normal, but that doesn't mean that someone couldn't have hidden in a place such as the closet, which wouldn't have counted as a hidden place. The problem's also that the door was locked from the inside, which also makes most of the key tricks irrelevant.

I guess my mind just glossed over "from the inside" as referring only to the windows. If the door was also locked from the inside that means that whoever locked it was absolutely 100% still inside the room when Battler unlocked it, per Beato's definition of a closed room. Which means either The killer was still in the room when Battler unlocked it, one of the dead committed suicide after locking the door, or Gohda managed to stay alive long enough after being stabbed in the chest to lock the door after the killer left. Which would explain why his body was found face-down right in front of the door.

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Apr 29, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Yay Ange is back! And this... person...

Are those horns?

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

idonotlikepeas posted:

It's interesting that we now know the provenance of stories 3-5 in the real world; there's some kind of web author that knows more about the mystery than ought to be the case.

Confession time: my first thought on seeing Hachijo was 'hey, it's Kanon after twelve years of hair growth and hormones.'

Also, I think trying to deny the existence of the meta-world is pointless, because Bern and Lambda show Higurashi is canon, and magic is 100% real in Higurashi.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Fair enough, I'll leave the crushing of fools to Bernkastel.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

KataraniSword posted:

It's canon in the same way all of the prior episodes are canon. I think Bern and Lambda referred to it as a separate fragment even as early as their first introduction, meaning it's an entirely different parallel universe.

That's not to say there's no Hinamizawa in Umineko, but it's only relevant as the origin/earlier games of Lambda and Bern...who, if you take magic as fake, are not real either. In other words, Hinamizawa's relevance is a catbox within the catbox - it's only canon if you believe Bern and Lambda are real. "Magic is real only if magic is real" is a hell of a tautology.

Basically I'm just saying take some Everett with your Schrodinger. Or, they are 5+-dimensional beings that cannot meaningfully interact with our 4-dimensional world. It's not Fantasy, it's Sci-Fi :science:

e: really, I just think trying to disprove the existence of the meta-layer is about as fruitful as trying to disprove the existence of The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Games > Let's Play! > Bern & Lambda's Magical Hint Corner - Let's Play Umineko Chiru

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Apr 29, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Speaking of episode three, here goes.

Extra challenge for Episode 3, come up with the most charitable view of Eva possible.

Episode 3
First Twilight: Kanon gets Shannon to play dead in the parlor, possibly as part of some plan to get Krauss and Natsushi to come clean about Kinzo’s death. Or I should say Sayo, ‘Shannon’ died the moment she accepted George’s ring. As Sayo is discovered first, she has no idea that actual murders have occurred. Kanon/Beatrice likewise plays dead in the chapel. Nanjo has been paid off to say everyone is dead. Closed room circle defeated.

Next, Eva solves the epitaph and finds the gold room. Beatrice meets her there and says “Congratulations, I’m still gonna kill a bunch more people, but since you won the game I’ll let you live if you don’t tell anyone about me.” Eva feigns an illness to keep Hideyoshi by her side in hopes that he won’t be one of the people killed.
Meanwhile, Nanjo doesn’t know what the gently caress to do with both of his co-conspirators gone, so he hides away in his room all day and hopes nobody asks him any questions.

Second Twilight: Eva notices Rosa and Maria leave the guesthouse, and sneaks out to warn them while Hideyoshi has a smoke, but she’s too late and at best she gets to watch as Beatrice dunks Rosa’s head on a fence spike. Not wanting to draw suspicion to herself or catch the killers ire, she sneaks back to her room and tells Hideyoshi to provide an alibi for her.

The Hall: Kyrie and Rudolf lure Hideyoshi to the mansion to question him about the false alibi he provided for Eva. While this happens they are ambushed by Beatrice and Rudolf and Kyrie are killed. Hideyoshi is given the chance to flee, but decides to play hero instead. It goes poorly for him.
At this point Sayo knows something is up, but if she shows herself at this point she knows she’s suspect number one, so she finds Beatrice and asks to be able to speak to George alone.

The Guesthouse: First, Beatrice uses a ladder to climb in through Nanjo’s window, which he of course unlocked. Beatrice meets George in the hallway, and offers to take him to Shannon, and out the window they go, with Nanjo locking up behind them. Cue heartwarming reunion and sudden but inevitable betrayal. George and Sayo are now dead. (Probably, see previous musings on the subject.)
Beatrice now returns to the guesthouse, waits for Eva to use the toilet, and gets the drop on Krauss, sticking him up form behind and taking his gun. Krauss and Natsushi are now marched out the front door, with liberal application of threats to Jessica keeping them from calling out. After they all leave the handy Nanjo-brand auto-lock kicks in again.

And, of course, in the mansion outside the servant’s room, Beatrice walks up and shoots Nanjo right in the face. He really should have seen it coming after Kumasawa.

Bonus round: It’s possible that Beatrice let on to Eva that Battler was important to her in some way, so once her whole family and any witnesses are dead she just shoots him out of spite before escaping to Kuwadorian.

Please shoot my theories full of holes.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

tiistai posted:

:siren: List of Red Truth. Pretty sure I got it all. Covers episodes 2-4 at the moment, I'll add the EP5 stuff later.


I need just one bullet:

"I keep my promises. If you solve the riddle of the epitaph, you should be able to reach the Golden Land. When you do, the ceremony will end. No more people will die."

Two possibilities: 'You' in this case refers only to Battler, the murders only stop if Battler reaches the Golden Land. But that doesn't really fit the spirit of keeping promises. Because Eva did not announce her discovery, Beatrice did not know the riddle had been solved, so the killings continued. This requires a few adjustments to my scenario and shift's Eva's motivation, but it's not dead yet. Of course, I could just fall back on Eva did it, but I wouldn't be doing all this if I was ready to stop thinking.

e: or maybe There's a part of the epitaph that nobody has solved yet, and just finding the room with all the gold isn't fully solving the riddle. I mean, Battler finds the gold in Ep 5, announces it to everyone, and people still die. Of course, Lambdadelta has never claimed to keep her promises, at least not in red.

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Apr 30, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

thetruegentleman posted:

Read the 3rd game's results: where does it Battler was killed?

At the end of this video

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
The only other person who is for-sure-Kinzo-dead post-1986 is Maria (that or she's wandering around without her jaw)

Alternate Episode 3 - gently caress Eva Edition
The first twilight is the same as above, except Sayo is probably just dead. For the 2nd, Eva kills Rosa and Maria to keep all the gold for herself. Also kills Rudolf and Kyrie for the same reason. Hideyoshi witnesses this and is not down with the serial homicide. When he says he'll have to turn Eva in, she panics and shoots him without thinking. Later, Beatrice is pissed that Eva's killing spree is making her look like a liar, so she lures George out and kills him to make Eva suffer. Meanwhile Eva is busy killing Krauss and Natsushi while threatening Jessica to keep them from fighting back. Later, Beatrice kills Nanjo to make sure he doesn't tell anyone about the murder conspiracy he was bribed in to, then tries to get Jessica to a hiding place where Eva won't find her. Then she either kills herself or fucks off to Thailand, her plan having gone so thoroughly off the rails thanks to Eva's bloodlust.

I do not like this theory. It is severely lacking in love.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Episode 4
After everyone starts demanding to see Kinzo, Kanon uses the fact that he solved the epitaph and found to the gold to browbeat Krauss into announcing Kinzo’s death, and Kanon’s ascension as the new head. Genji and most likely Shannon are in on this much of the plan.

First Twilight: Gohda brings in some late-night snacks, not knowing that Kumasawa has laced them with a slow-acting sedative. Genji announces the arrival of the head of the Ushiromiya family, and then Kanon enters the room. Everyone acknowledges that Kanon solved the riddle and is the rightful new head. Then he starts shooting people in the face. Shortly after the sedative starts to kick in, and Krauss and Kyrie pass out. Nanjo might just be pretending. Gohda flees in terror, and Kumasawa chases to keep him in line. Shannon is very sad about this course of events.

Once more Gohda is useless at conveying information when he’s scared, so Kumasawa fills in the gaps of his babbling with bunny girls and magic portals. Nanjo and Shannon help move Krauss and Kyrie to another room in the mansion at gunpoint. Nanjo is playing captive to keep an eye on the prisoners, and Shannon probably spends a lot of time trying to convince Kanon to call off the plan. All phone conversations with Battler’s group are compelled to stick to the magic bunny soldier scenario by the person with the gun.

Second Twilight: George and Jessica are called out. Kanon meets George in the rose garden and shoots him in the head. Somehow the captives manage to escape, maybe because Kanon’s resolve wavered for a moment and he left them an opening. Kanon heads to Jessica’s room and delivers her a mortal wound: a broken heart. She calls Battler while the boy she likes holds a gun to her head forcing her to talk about demons and barriers and portals before he shoots her in the face. Once more, with the killing of Jessica, ‘Kanon’ is gone for good. The person formerly known as Kanon now chases down the fleeing captives and shoots them in the head. Kyrie is cornered in a guestroom and forced to make another call to Battler according to the script. It takes a few warning shots into the wall behind her to get her to comply.

The Shed: Kumasawa talks Gohda into letting her hold the key somehow, and she tosses it out the window to the waiting Beatrice. Beatrice opens the shutter, shoots Gohda in the head, and the two of them string him up by the neck. She then closes and locks the shutter again, and passes the key through the window. Kumasawa puts the key in Gohda’s pocket, puts the rope around her neck, and turns to face the window so Beatrice can get a clear shot at her forehead.

Maria is given a whole plate of those sedative laced snacks from before, enough to kill a small child. Then Beatrice heads up to the balcony to await her big scene with Battler.


Feels a little shaky to me, but the red text pertaining to the murders of Ep 4 is pretty sparse. The bulk of the episode is dedicated to the mystery as a whole, rather than the specific events of the 4th game.

At this point I'm just waiting for red text denying the idea that if [name] dies their body can still be alive under a different name to destroy everything.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
So Battler has created a blank slate young woman in the hopes of raising her to be a duplicate of the Beatrice that died. He's really taking the wrong lessons from his grandfather, huh?


ProfessorProf posted:

"...I see. If you skipped for that long, it would mean your 'death' as far as society is concerned. If you remained dead for that long, not only would you be unable to catch up on all you missed in the world at large, you'd also lose any motivation you might've had when you left. So, even though you'd be alive, you could say that you'd died once. You would never again... be able to regain the self that you once were, It would never revive."

The previous Ange parts have had some good bits of insight relevant to my personal life, but this one... this really hits close to home. :smith:

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
I mean, this could be part of some sorta next-level mind games Battler is pulling on the witches, but it's Battler we're talking about here

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Came here to post this. (I still waiting for the Sayo people to point to the evidence that shows her feelings for George are all a lie.)

--

Something new to mull over here is what could Battler have possibly figured out that would make him want to be friendly with the person who murdered his whole family. The first thing to spring to mind is that Beato didn't actually murder anyone, in which case everything we've seen was just murder mystery fiction written for his entertainment. Which I suppose from the perspective of player-Battler it actually is. But it implies there's a world (or fragment) where nobody was actually murdered, but maybe just a gas-leaked caused and explosion that killed everyone? Maybe Battler has been stuck on Rokkenjima for 12 years reading mystery novels? My brain keeps going back to Higurashi where the mystery itself is pretty much solved by the end of episode 7, and episode 8 is just finding the best possible outcome with that knowledge. Will the final game board open with Battler walking up to the culprit, giving them a big hug, and apologizing? If Battler had remembered his sin from the beginning, could this tragedy have been prevented?

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Tender Child Loins posted:

To be clear, I don't think that her feelings for George are a lie. I think it's more complicated than that. If my theory is correct, Sayo loves three people: George, Jessica, and Battler. Three facets of Sayo each love a single person, and the tragedy is that none of those three truly understand who she is. In the fragments, she is able to kill one or the other because those facets, being in conflict, have no problem killing the object of another's desire. Alternately, they are able to stow away their love in service of the greater goal. I'm not sure which is more feasible to be honest, but I can see both applying here.

At the end of episode 4, Beatrice says in red (sorta) "Why am I unable to love anyone."

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

CottonWolf posted:

Yeah, I think that counts. Though it's arguably not a statement and more of a question, so it's not clear in what sense it has to be true.

It has to at least mean that Beatrice thinks she is incapable of love, which is a thing Kanon frets over a lot and Shannon does not.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Tender Child Loins posted:

It's weird. I kind of feel like maybe my arguments only make sense to me because they feel really true to me on an emotional and psychological level. I think this way of living and framing one's world is possible because I've done it—am doing it. I'm not sure how to articulate it in a way that makes sense to people who aren't like me? :smith:

I think projecting yourself onto the characters makes total sense. I mean, there's a reason I jumped straight to an explanation where Beatrice is a trans woman. :v:

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Cyouni posted:

I personally subscribe to the Kanon school of thought, but that's easily resolved by second-personality. Shannon/Sayo loves George. Beatrice does not.
But then Shannon has 3 names, which, while not impossible, has never been stated or hinted at, whereas Kanon has an undisclosed true name still hanging out there.

quote:

Secondary interesting note from episode 1:
"Uu-! Maria gets called that all the time too! Gets called unsociable! Like Kanon! Uu-!"
"*giggle* Maria-sama is not unsociable at all."
"Uu-? It was nice to be like him... Uu-."

Oh I'm sure Maria is more in-on this plan than anyone else. Hell, the Assassination of Sakutaro by the Coward Ushiromiya Rosa is probably one of the contributing factors that lead to the plan in the first place.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
It's also interesting that he decided to hang out with Genji and Kumasawa instead of Ronove and Virgillia, which just shows what terrible taste he has.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Qrr posted:

Hey, Genji is great.

Genji is fine, but is dreadfully devoid of sass.

If we assume Amakusa is the standard anime hardened veteran age of 28 in 1998, that makes him only two years younger than Battler, so at least the ship has that going for it.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Man, there's a lot I've forgotten about Higurashi.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

CottonWolf posted:

He's basically the platonic ideal of a mundane butler. In the same way that Renove is basically the platonic ideal of magical butler.

So we're agreed that Ronove is better

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

MonsterEnvy posted:

Erika floating onto the Island laughing, coughing and hacking is kind of hilarious.

Someone please tell me there's fanart out there of Erika crawling out of the sea like some sort of primordial detective kaiju.

idonotlikepeas posted:

Why would George need to accept "all of" Shannon? Why is it that Shannon would never see Kanon again if she left with George? Why do they have to compete; why can only one of them have what they want? This update is a huge shot in the arm for the idea that they're the same person, because it answers all of those questions. I may have been wrong about that after all; maybe George really HASN'T gotten to second base with his girlfriend. If they're the same person, they're more likely to look like Kanon, and George might not be so accepting of that. (And maybe that's why he ends up dead in some earlier routes?) If they're the same person, they can't both go off with different Ushiromiyas. I mean... they could, but it seems unlikely that would work with this particular group of people. She would abandon one disguise and live in the other.

Maybe, but whatever is going on there, at least one of them is aware of the at least 300,000,000 yen that has already been sent out as part of a complex murder-mystery plot, so that might have something to do with whatever contest is going on.

Also worth remembering that any strange going on here can be chalked up to Battler being the one directing everything so grains of salt and all that. This sudden declaration of love from Kanon is something he could have done all along, but not necessarily something he would have.

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 17:09 on May 5, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

resurgam40 posted:

So why now, when they presumably would have the same problem as the other times- that being, they can't very well both go with both people.

Easy. Battler is incompetent. Even as the game master.

More seriously, if Kanon and Shannon really do share a body, just how many people would have to know about this? To be on-board enough to lie to the reader. "Knox's 9th: It is permitted for observers to let their own conclusions and interpretations be heard." Which to me means that if a scene is told from a certain person's perspective, while that scene need not be what really happened, there has to be a reason for that person to see it that way. Time to comb through every scene where a third-party sees them together, I guess.

(Incidentally, I tried to use the bit where Beatrice guaranteed the identities of all the unidentified corpses in episode 1 to fight against, but of the six bodies in the shed Shannon's was the only one said to have enough face to actually identify so she wouldn't even be covered there.)

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Qrr posted:

Another question, if they're the same person (or share a body, whatever), will we get red decrementing the total number of people or will we get more "unknown person X"? Probably the Decalogue says no unknown person X allowed, if Battler is going to follow it.


And the "I" there is Battler. We don't know what Erika saw, and Shannon was behind her.

Upon further reading, it seems the "I" there refers to Player-Battler not Piece-Battler, for whatever that's worth.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
Here's another one for Knox's 8th. In Episode 3, if Kanon=Shannon, the following must have happened: The adults (read: liar Nanjo) finish examining Shannon's body, and move on to the second floor. Shannon now must get up, completely change clothes, hair, etc. and sneak off to the Chapel, which has been unlocked this whole time ( can't actually find mention of a magic circle drawn on the chapel door at least), lock the chapel from the inside and play dead again. All this in the space of time it takes the adults to find the other four bodies.

The most suspicious part of this to me is the change of clothes. If someone had changed their clothes in a hurry like this, per Knox's 8th there would be some evidence. Can such evidence be found?

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Qrr posted:

Did anyone ever actually go back to the room where Shannons body was found? We can't really fault lack of evidence if no one ever looked for it.

We've had a lot of people leaving bodies alone both because they don't like the reminder and because they don't want to disturb the crime scene. That gives a lot of leeway.

"Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not PRESENTED!!"

Graylien posted:

I'm not a huge fan of the S=K theory, but I can't admit to having any better ideas for why only one of them can win, maybe Battler's just a poo poo author? :shrug:

Well if for some reason Kanon winning involves George being murdered along with 5-12 other people

e: let's think this through like serial-killer aka endless witch. 5 people can survive the ritual and reach the golden land (here meaning living without needs atop a pile of money) if Kinzo counts as a sacrifice, 4 if not. Battler has a reserved seat, if we add Kanon and Jessica, that means 1-2 spots left, but probably Maria gets one too, so there isn't room for both George and Shannon.

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 20:21 on May 5, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

tiistai posted:

Just out of curiousity, how long do you think it takes to change clothes? I might want to challenge you to a race

Normal clothes, or these getups?

Kanon's shirt doesn't even have any buttons how the hell is one person supposed to put this on?

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!
I guess an elastic neckband just seems weirdly informal considering everything else about the outfit.

But for a serious answer, I just meant that if someone had changed clothes in a hurry you might expect a discarded sock or something to show up as a clue.

e: new thought: is it possible Battler is deliberately setting this game up to make it look like Shannon and Kanon are the same person, in the same way Lambda set up the previous one to make Natsushi look guilty? His goal here is not stump Erkia/Bernkastel and throw them out of the game, so baiting them into weird theories might be his plan. Also it's the sort of plan likely to backfire horribly.

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 20:56 on May 5, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Qrr posted:

This is actually the opposite of that. There are a number of clues about them being the same person. Evidence of changing clothes or lack of missing bodies could have contradicted that, but instead didn't. We don't get any clues at all about a clothing change (aside from the general clues that they're the same person), but we also don't get any clues that there wasn't a clothing change.

The hell are you even trying to say here? You can't Devil's Proof Knox's 8th. That's like, the whole point of Knox's 8th, to stop people from arguing "Well you can't prove that it didn't happen".

curiousCat posted:

In other words, the epitaph was already solved before anythin on the island actually happened. Someone else already is the successor, someone else controls the gold. Sayo has solved the epitaph?

Yes, absolutely 100%. Not necessarily Sayo, but whoever the culprit is solved the epitaph but for whatever reason did not step forward to claim their prize, at least not publicly. If the solver is a servant this course of action makes total sense, as it's not like the family is just gonna accept this unrelated commoner taking all their inheritance. I've been sure of this much for a while now.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

idonotlikepeas posted:

OK. There's a theory that I've been hanging onto for a long while, and maybe now is a good time to get into it. What you seem to be implying here is that in the canonical world, the world of the actual events that really happened in Rokkenjima, not in any of these bottle stories, Sayo might not be the culprit, but the culprit has found the golden land. I think Sayo definitely found the golden land... but almost certainly isn't the culprit.

Sayo planned the murders. The first two bottles are evidence of that; she is the only person that could reasonably have written those before the murders, including Beatrice as they do, and that's the only time they could have been written. Someone was jotting down fake stories during the actual days of the murders? There's just no time to write this amount of text, and everyone's going to be too busy even if they could otherwise have done it. She, as Maria's friend (we have copious if indirect evidence of this), is the most likely person to sign Maria's name to those stories. If she found the gold, she had the means to pay off the families of her future victims. If she's also the child that got pitched off a cliff, that provides a hell of a motive as well as a reason to be a little screwed up in the head. I think it's therefore established, at least provisionally, that she planned to kill everyone. But there is one piece of evidence that has been bothering me about this. Specifically, this: Eva did not reveal the identity of the killer, and refused to discuss the events on Rokkenjima. She refused to do this even though suspicion would naturally fall on her. Why? For what purpose? If the murderer was a servant that was actually an abandoned child from years ago or whatever, it might be embarrassing to the family, but much less so than the living head being considered a murderer. She would have told the truth in that case. Instead, she said nothing. If she didn't know who the killer was, she would have said that, instead. She didn't do that either.

For dramatic reasons, I do not believe that Eva was the killer. Eliminating her as a suspect, there are only two plausible scenarios I can construct that make this evidence make sense. The first is if a member of her own family is responsible, since she wouldn't want to tarnish their memories. I have seen nothing that suggests to me that Hideyoshi can or would plan murders without getting her involvement, and frankly I don't think he'd stand much of a chance of succeeding without her help. George has the aptitude, but despite my best efforts I have been unable to get him on any murders, or figure out a way he can fit into that role. He may actually be the slightly weird but genuinely well-intentioned person he appears to be.

That brings us to the other possibility. If Eva isn't trying to protect her own memories of her dead family... what if she's trying to protect Ange's? What would it do to Ange to know that her family was involved? How could you lay that kind of burden on a tiny child? Eva's silence makes perfect sense in that case. Ange is incapable of recognizing that Eva loved her, in her own screwed up way... without understanding love, she can't see the reason. So I'll put down some money on this roulette square. The real killers are Rudolf and Kyrie. I don't know how exactly Sayo's plot went wrong, or if it just collided with theirs, but I'm sure of it. This is what this means:


Imagine having that kid hate you every day, but never telling her the secret that would destroy her. That's love, right?
You're using Sayo as interchangeable with Kanon here, right? Otherwise I'll need some explanation of this evidence of being friends with Maria. But this is all secondary to the major problem.

Rudolf and Kyrie both die at the start of the first two games. Their death is even confirmed in red for the first game. But I can counter this twisted logic that even lead you down this path. The reason post-Ep-3 Eva won't talk about what really happened on that island is whatever else happened, she absolutely detective-saw-it-for-sure shot Battler dead. She is a murderer. If she tried to tell a mostly true story about what happened, but lie about the bit where she killed her nephew in cold blood, there's always the chance some evidence will be found that contradicts whatever story she told, raising suspicion. Better to not say anything and wait until the cops find something to worry about lying to cover your rear end.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

curiousCat posted:

At this point, everyone has died in one of the games.

The Detective has never once seen Kanon's dead body.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

idonotlikepeas posted:

In every different universe, different people die. Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique. Multiple universes are supernatural, whether you believe in them or not. Eva's guilt or innocence in one timeline can't be used to determine her guilt or innocence in another. The universe I am referring to as "canonical", the one that leads to Ange's world, has not yet been seen. The stories so far were written by Sayo (the first two) and a web author (the latter three). They are not true.

You can certainly theorize that Eva did it. As I said, my objection there is purely dramatic; the entire world of 1998 thinks she did it, including Ange. After all that, having her actually be the murderer would deflate the entire story. Keep in mind, the story claims the witch of theatregoing to be the most important; while witches don't actually exist, one could see that inclusion as symbolic of the importance of drama to the narrative.

We do know that every must conform to certain rules, rules which meta-Beatrice is the personification of. If one of those rules isn't the identity of the culprit at the very least, then I don't see what the point of the game is.

Or to put it another way, if the four mysteries presented to us are completely unrelated, then reasoning is impossible, and it would not be necessary to understand the previous games to create your own.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

idonotlikepeas posted:

I don't think that's one of the rules. I think the rules are more about the starting conditions of the game and the personalities of the people involved. If you fully understand both the starting and ending conditions, you can create a number of different mysteries, with different culprits. It's absolutely impossible for the culprit to be Eva in some games and she's shown as at least one of the culprits in Episode Three, so I think there's at least some evidence for this.

Let's define our terms here. When I say 'the culprit' I don't mean every person who killed someone in a given game. I mean Beatrice, the person to whom the giant pile of gold belongs, the person who signed Maria's grimoire, the person who wrote the bottle stories, the person who Battler sinned against, the person who sent fat stacks of cash to Nanjo and Kumasawa's next of kin, the person who gave the letter to Maria challenging the family to solve the epitaph, and the person who confronted Battler at the end of episode 4. The person the final question "Who am I?" refers to.

If that person isn't the same across games, then there's no point to any of this.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

curiousCat posted:

Episode 1?

Nope. Read it again. Battler finds Kanon face-down in a pool of blood but explicitly alive, and he runs out of the room before actually examining him. That's the last time Battler sees Kanon.

And on the subject Battler looking at dead bodies... If Kanon=Shannon, we must accept that a wig is involved. In episode 2 Battler grabs Shannon's head to peer directly into her brain hole. If she were wearing a wig, he'd probably have noticed. Which means Kanon's hair is the wig and neither appearance can be considered the real one.

And in episode 4, all bodies are accounted for except Kanon's. If Shannon's body is Kanon's body, then who was talking to Battler on the balcony? Or did Shannon leave straight from that meeting, put the maid outfit back on, and then blow half her face off in the back yard? And if that's the case, where did the gun go?

Cyouni posted:

How many people does it take to close a door?

It's a double door. And if they were already standing on either side...

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Robindaybird posted:

There's another note: Shannon has the One-Wing eagle tattooed on her thigh, while Kanon wears knickers that completely covers his thighs, thus concealing a very obvious identifying mark.

And human Beatrice has the same tattoo... on the opposite thigh from Shannon.

Cyouni posted:

I checked back to episode 1, and the way that's portrayed really does not look like a double door to me.


This is the best shot I could find of the parlor doors off the top of me head. Looks like double doors to me. (That's the seam between them just above Beato's head.) (The end of EP1 uses the generic door graphic)

tiistai posted:

Ange was mentioned! Don't let the fact that she was 6 fool you

Ahah, the culprit was the time-traveling Witch of Stable Time Loops, ANGE Beatrice. She used her magic powers to travel back in time and kill her family to create the conditions which lead to her developing magic powers. :ms:

ZiegeDame fucked around with this message at 17:51 on May 6, 2017

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Fates End posted:

Allow me to interject, because this is getting annoying.

No voices existed in the original game except for ahaha.wav! Furthermore, neither did the PS3 sprites or any cgs!

In other words, neither of those are proof for or against anything.

Just because they aren't needed to solve anything doesn't mean they're wrong. I highly doubt the whole mystery is going to hinge (sorry) on what sort of doors the parlor has.

I'm pretty sure they just had Daisuke Ono voice the phone call because of the theory Battler presents at the end of the episode. Also because he's already there and why hire a new actor for ten lines.

ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Cyouni posted:

Ep 1 and 5 suggest it's a single door, but I don't quite recall the layout of the parlour. There might be two sets of doors to it, which would to some degree resolve it. Alternately, I should take a look at episode 3 for how it's described.

There are two equally valid theories, so neither one can be considered true. Have you considered perhaps that the door is a witch? :witch:

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ZiegeDame
Aug 21, 2005

YUKIMURAAAA!

Please.

Her name is clearly Lady DOOROTHY

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