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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The pre-season prediction thread is archived now, but I gotta say I really nailed this one:

quote:

5. Colorado (WC) - With a new coach and a bit more structure, they come out of a tight pack fighting for the 2nd WC spot

and this one

quote:

8. Columbus - Haha Torts, oh man. Thanks for the pick Jarmo!

:smug:

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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

corn on the cop posted:

vancouver i'd really appreciate it if you'd win some loving hockey games to give the devils some breathing room

Oh don't worry, they're going to win 3 of their last 4 and managament will go on about how this is "the youth taking a step forward," "fostering a winning environment" and how they "have momentum going into next year" before they pick 8th.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

Do you have the archives link? I'm pretty sure my predictions sucked too.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3792838&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Thufir posted:

Oh hey, Nashville successfully backed into the playoffs. Thanks for sucking, Kings!

The Kings last few seasons are probably the worst successful period for any franchise ever.


2011-12: 8th seed, win the Cup.
2012-13: 5th seed, lose in Conference Finals
2013-14: 3rd in the Pacific, win the Cup
2014-15: Miss the Playoffs
2015-16: 2nd in the Pacific, out in the first round
2016-17: Miss the playoffs

They never bettered 102pts over that stretch and managed a stunning 95 in their first cup win year. They genuinely never had a good regular season, and they have more cup wins in their history (2) than division titles (1). They just got hot at exactly the right time twice, but otherwise kinda sucked.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Hand Knit posted:

Keep in mind that the first Cup team vastly improved twice through the season, first when they changed coaches to Sutter and then when they acquired Richards. Before the playoffs started, some stats blogger (I think Gabe Desjardins) did identify them as arguably the best team in the league. I think after acquiring Richards they were at a ~120 point pace with >55% corsi. They were also 1 point off being the third seed that year because the Pacific was awful.

Yeah, they improved over the season but so do most cup winners. Generally the team with the best record over the last 20-30 games of the season has the highest chance of winning the cup. With that said, the Kings didn't show any sustained improvement from year to year. They got better for exactly 1/3 of a season and a cup run. They then were basically exactly the same mediocre team they were the next year, and then again the year after that until they got Gaborik (who I assume you're talking about).

Outside of two short stretches, they were never a consistent top level team. Every team can and will play well for stretches, the Flyers won ten in a row this year. It's just that the Kings had two impeccably timed runs of outstanding play.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

corn on the cop posted:

you say that and i raise you two wins in the last 20 games

Some team like Winnipeg is gonna win the lottery despite having a 4% chance of doing so.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Mr. Kite posted:

I'm disappointed that the Kings missed the playoffs, but coming here and seeing Thinktank trying to explain away the Kings cups was a nice pick-me-up. Thanks, man.

:glomp:

Any time buddy!

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

quote:

The NHL will not participate in the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, deciding to make the announcement now so it doesn’t overshadow the playoffs, Sportsnet has learned.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-will-not-participate-2018-pyeongchang-olympic-games/

WEEELLLLPPPP

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/848985459589914624

This is going to be a giant headache for the league. A bunch of stars are going to defect, and what will the league do? Fine them? Suspend them?

This is going to be bad.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Thufir posted:

Bettman must have a megaboner at the idea of using the Olympics as a bargaining chip in the next lockout.

Haha the IOC is never letting them back in. The NHL needs Olympic exposure way more than the IOC needs NHL players.

The next Olympics are in Beijing. The IOC isn't stupid, they know what the Chinese market means? Why would they do any favours to an organization that burned them over ~$14M in insurance costs?

ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Apr 3, 2017

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Spring Break My Heart posted:

Gotta love how they're doing the games in China followed immediately by this.

Yeah, that announcement was the writing on the wall for me. It was an obvious backup plan for breaking into the Chinese market if the Olympics didn't work. It's not gonna draw any meaningful interest though. Pro sports teams showing up to play an exhibition game somewhere else is a novelty at best. The Olympics legitimizes anything and will ensure serious attention.

The NHL probably killed any real efforts into making inroads into China over $14M. That seems like a worthwhile gamble to me.

Oh well, the Canada-Sweden snoozefest will likely go down as the last NHL Olympic game ever. What a disappointing ending.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Ginette Reno posted:

Don't worry I'm sure the players will get it back next lockout in exchange for complete wage slavery 24/7 work hours and 90% of all proceeds generated going directly to the owners

It's not up to the NHL to decide if it wants back, it's entirely the IOC's decision and why would they want the NHL back? The league can dangle Olympic participation over the players as much as they want, but they've thrown that trump card away. The IOC has made its stance quite clear about 2022, they won't back down. Just about the only people who could change that would be the Chinese government insisting on NHL players, and seriously why would they do that?

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

iospace posted:

probably AHL players without an NHL contract.

"STARTING AT DEFENCE FOR TEAM USA NUMBER FOUR

MAAAATTTTTTT

GILLLLLLRRROOOOYYYYY"

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Ugh, I went back to the 94 tournament to see who the leading scorers were and man this is gonna suck:


code:
	Name				Games	Goals	Assists	Points
1	Slovakia Zigmund Palffy		8	3	7	10
2	Slovakia Miroslav Satan		8	9	0	9
3	Slovakia Peter Stastny		8	5	4	9
4	Sweden Haakan Loob		8	4	5	9
5	Italy Gates Orlando		7	3	6	9
6	Sweden Patrik Juhlin		8	7	1	8
7	Czech Republic Jiri Kucera	8	6	2	8
8	Austria Marty Dallman		7	4	4	8
9	Finland Mika Nieminen		8	3	5	8
10	United States David Sacco	8	3	5	8
11	Sweden Peter Forsberg		8	2	6	8
I'm legitimately bummed. The 98 Olympics are one of my earliest solid hockey memories. They really helped solidify my love for the sport (Marc Crawford's bonehead decisions aside). I just can't get excited for a glorified World Championships.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

It's gonna be the Rasmus Dahlin show though which is pretty cool.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

T-Bone posted:

I really do hope Ovechkin goes through with it. If he goes I could see others following.

He's going for sure. Russia haven't even medalled with him, and they're easily the favourites for gold now.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Shawn Cotureier posted:

Also, Calgary's first round pick (I forget his name) is the only first rounder left from the 2013 draft to not play an NHL game yet

The immortal Morgan Klimchuk

https://twitter.com/Real_ESPNLeBrun/status/849291968047960064

ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Apr 4, 2017

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

ElwoodCuse posted:

Lol Ovi couldn't even pretend to care about the upcoming playoffs or anything. No wonder Russian players get stereotyped like that.

What? He was asked about the Olympics. What is he supposed to say?

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Hand Knit posted:

Historically the W is considered stronger defensively but last I knew they were pretty equal.

There hasn't been a huge difference in GPG across the CHL over the last few years. Scoring has been generally a bit lower in the WHL, but not substantially so. The idea that it's the tough defensive league is just an anecdotal thing. A player who puts up 100pts in the OHL would still put up around the same in the WHL.

CHL GPG By Year

2015
WHL: 3.31
OHL: 3.5
QMJHL: 3.52

2016
WHL: 3.45
OHL: 3.39
QMJHL: 3.41

2017
WHL: 3.40
OHL: 3.45
QMJHL: 3.45

It's actually far more difficult to compare players across teams than across the CHL. In every league there's one team that puts up 300+ goals and another that doesn't crack 200. This year Erie had 319 goals and Kingston had 179. Regina had 353 and Kootenay had 177. Charlottetown had 303 and Quebec had 187.

It's one of the reasons I'm so high on Jason Robertson. At first glance his numbers are pretty pedestrian. 42g 81pts in 68 games, but he was involved in 48% of Kingston's offence. The only first time draft eligible players to better that in recent years are Marner (49.8%) and McDavid (55.5%). That's pretty drat good company.

ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 19:45 on Apr 4, 2017

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

fits posted:

if the scores go just right tampa & toronto could possibly tie on every tiebreaker

https://twitter.com/undefined/status/849473581964832768

There was a playoff game settled by a coin flip in Calgary last month. I want to see the Leafs miss out on millions in playoff revenue because Lou calls heads.

quote:

On Saturday, a quarter-final game between the Calgary Royals and Calgary Buffalo Wranglers went to a shootout locked in a 4-4 tie.

But Royals head coach Jarvis Bender said players were devastated when the outcome was taken out of their hands as a decision was made to name the winner by a coin toss...

Hockey Calgary’s rules and bylaws state that when a tied overtime playoff game “cannot be concluded due to unforeseen circumstances,” a member of Hockey Calgary’s Elite Council “will determine a tiebreaking format to declare a winner.”

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/hockey-parents-fuming-after-playoff-game-decided-by-coin-toss

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Jamwad Hilder posted:

kind of like how the Leafs will end up with 40+ losses but will still probably be a higher seed than the Bruins.

3 on 3 and the shootout have essentially nothing to do with proving hockey skill, so I don't mind the loser point in the slightest. Teams shouldn't be unduly punished for keeping games close then losing in the trick play competition.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Hand Knit posted:

Kill the loser point, and bring back ties.

Please no, ties were terrible. The current system has its faults, but it does what it was designed to do in making playoff races as tight as possible.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Gio posted:

ties are dumb. the only arguments i see for ties come from purists. as if regular season isn't boring enough already apparently we gotta make it even more boring because shootouts are a skills competition.

I agree in principal, but for every fun shootout move there's 300 "don't want coach to bench me for trying anything unique even though I know this won't work" shots into the pads from between the hashmarks.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Teemu Pokemon posted:

There's not wrong with the loser point if they move to a 3-point system

The NHL will never move to that because it creates too much separation in the standing. Fans generally stop showing up when their team is out of the playoffs. Moving to a 3 point system would effectively eliminate a bunch of teams by mid-January and in a gate driven league like the NHL that's death.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

CBJSprague24 posted:

This is kind of entertaining.

Henrik Sedin hasn't been a minus player since his rookie season and how he's about to finish bottom ten in the league. He flat out gave up this year.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Thufir posted:

Just occurred to me that this olympics stuff is overblown because they'll be cancelled once Trump starts a war on the Korean Peninsula.

That's even worse because the backup plan would likely be to hold them in Vancouver again.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

JawKnee posted:

All the canucks need to do to finish in 29th is lose 3 games in regulation

you can do it Canucks!

I believe in... uh... the other teams!

If they lose out, they finish 2nd last. The game against Arizona tomorrow is the biggest must lose game in franchise history. Defeat is now our only ally, we need no longer fear the slick recesses of ruination. Reach out and take the ragged hand that is proffered. It promises solace in a world fraught with success.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

JawKnee posted:

Indeed, and my body is ready for the canucks to pick 5th after three teams behind them win the lottery positions

Get ready for this:



ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

JawKnee posted:

Is Vegas auto-picking in the top 3? I remember them having the same odds (I think) for the lottery picks as the 29th place team, but what position are they slotted for without a win?

It hasn't been confirmed exactly how it'll break down, but when they were announced as a franchise the league said they'd have the same lottery odds as the 3rd worst team.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

El Gallinero Gros posted:

Those of you whose teams are in the race for Patrick (I assume CS still has him#1): are you actually excited for him? Or is it more of a "Yeah I guess he's pretty good" kind of thing?

He's a pretty uninspiring top selection, but yes he's the consensus #1. I think people are starting to get a bit overly critical of him. He's not McDavid or Matthews, but he's a very good player about on par with Tkachuk last year or Strome in 2015. I doubt he'll be a certified star at the NHL level or make an instant impact like other first overalls, but he's no worse than the Nuge was at the same age and he's turned into a serviceable player.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Jamwad Hilder posted:

I still think it's premature to dismiss the entire draft as being bad.

It isn't great, but yeah I thought that a savvy GM would've loaded up on picks this year because the perception is that the talent isn't there. From a CHL players perspective, it's a pretty typical year. Better than last year, it's just that 2016 had Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi at the top coming from Europe and people tend to equate star power with depth of the draft.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Apparently the Caps clinched the President's trophy last night.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

JawKnee posted:

not even unlikely given the matchups for the last two games

The Habs are starting Carey Price against the Bolts which is a back to back for them and the Leafs play the Pens and Columbus who are locked into their playoff spots. It'll still take a real miracle for the Leafs to blow this.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

JawKnee posted:

I can see them losing to both the Pens and Columbus in regulation

and I can also see the bolts taking it over the habs, and then they only have the Sabres to beat

or possibly the ilses topping the Devils and then the Sens - who are already comfortably placed.

hardly a miracle I would think - though maybe unlikely

Of course stranger things have happened, but people are acting like the Leafs have already thrown this away and it's a coin flip from here on out. They haven't, Sportsclubstats still lists their chances of making the playoffs at 88.5% which are very good odds. If they don't pick up a point on Saturday and the Isles and Tampa win outright, then there's some concern.

Basically they gave themselves 3 chances to get a win. They were essentially up 3-1 in a series and now it's 3-2. Odds are still on their side, people are just panicking because well yes the Leafs have a history of blowing things.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Jamwad Hilder posted:

Yeah that's true, but their odds were around 98% just a few days ago, it's a big swing.

As I was typing that I did get a momentary precognition that someone would quote that post on Sunday evening with just the word :lol: beneath it.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

heeheex2 posted:

gently caress you, my excitement for the Canucks getting 2nd last is now just expectation for this exact scenario to happen

It's a given that the Canucks will win tonight and management will try and spin it as a positive pointing out that they had third best odds last year and picked 5th so you can't rely on them.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Jonny Nox posted:

Oilers are not getting eliminated round 1 because they never have

The Oilers have lost in the first round of the playoffs in 1980, 1982, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2003.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The Canucks managed to spend to the cap on a 69 point roster. The only other cap teams that failed to make the playoffs were Detroit and Philadelphia who managed 79 and 87 points respectively.

Jim Benning, take a bow.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Jim Benning decided this team was a piece or two away from being a playoff team so didn't sell at last year's deadline, made load up trades leading up to the draft by dealing away picks and prospects, signed a big name free agent and the team actually got worse.

Is that the worst lack of foresight by any GM in the history of the sport?

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

This article from October is a gem from start to finish but I'll pull out some choice quotes


quote:

Linden's crown has dents, but 65-point season is royally absurd. Seriously, do these people know how bad a hockey team has to be to finish with 65 points? The last-overall Toronto Maple Leafs dumped six players last season and auditioned 40 and still finished with 69 points.

quote:

Sixty-five points are a biblical disaster, scorched earth, the end of hockey as we have known it around the Vancouver Canucks since Marc Crawford replaced Mike Keenan as coach in 1999.

Yet, USA Today predicts 65 points for the Canucks and EA Sports simulates 63.

If this be true, not only will management and coaches not survive in Vancouver, but maybe none of us will. The hockey season will drown us before rising sea level and mortgage debt.

quote:

“I expect us to be hard to play against and to compete every night. And at the end of the day, we’re going to be in the fight (for a playoff spot). We do expect to be better this year.”

Surely, they can’t be worse.

Their 75 points and 28th-place finish last season were the Canucks’ lowest this century.

quote:

Since then, the Canucks have added 30-goal scorer Loui Eriksson and Swedish League MVP Anton Rodin without surrendering an asset, and they upgraded the defence by replacing 33-year-old Dan Hamhuis with 24-year-old Erik Gudbranson. Top defencemen Alex Edler and key centre Brandon Sutter are healthy again and the goaltending tandem (Ryan Miller and Jacob Markstrom) hasn’t been this solid since the Canucks had Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider, which was shortly before they had neither. Oh, and a bunch of young Canucks — Ben Hutton, Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi — look poised for breakout seasons.

So there is no way this team is 10 or 12 points worse
. Unless Daniel and Henrik Sedin are injured or play like they’re 46 years old instead of 36.

quote:

[Linden]"They may say I wasn’t a good (manager) or I wasn’t successful. That may be the case. And that’s fine. But that’s too early to say.”

http://vancouversun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/iain-macintyre-lindens-crown-has-dents-but-65-point-season-is-royally-absurd

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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

This is good stuff.

My favourite part was when they said that Erik Gudbranson was an upgrade on Dan Hamhuis because he's younger I guess?

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