Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Brownhat posted:

No one deserves to win in a week 17 league.



Welcome back Fantasy Sports Fans, it's 2018. It's officially time to be wrong 40% of the time at best get ready for some fake football!


Free League Hosting Services
  • ESPN: ESPN is stable and reliable system that's fairly powerful. It's the one I personally use and have no complaints.
  • CBS: The grandaddy. There are both free and premium subscriptions.
  • Yahoo: Yahoo has a somewhat clunky interface and terrible “experts” but it’s free and not terribly hard to use.
  • NFL.com: Flashy interface and integrated video, the NFL seems to be sinking some money into the site. The draft interface is unfortunate.
  • Fleaflicker: It’s a free site and very highly reviewed. The interface is spartan and information-driven and league customization options are deep.
Premium League Hosting Services
  • My Fantasy League: Allows the greatest range of league customization options (both the league web site and rules). Winner of multiple FSTA League Manager Product awards. Fantastic for dynasty, and well worth the $60 it costs to run a league each year.
Useful Free Resources
  • NBC Rotoworld: THE source for examining specific players and getting news on them. I don't even bother using their on-site search engine; just Google "Rotoworld (Player Name)" and it'll pop right up.
  • Football Guys: Has a free daily newsletter that I consider mandatory. It provides you with updates and alerts about players. They also have a really nice amount of content should you subscribe.
  • FantasyFootballCalculator: The current standard for mock drafting. It's a good place to find other people and get some experience with the pace of drafting. Another new mock draft site that's generating some buzz is SnapDraft. I haven't had a chance to use it myself.
  • FantasyPros: An immensely helpful aggregrator, taking data from all sorts of sources and providing a consensus of their thoughts. Personally I think this is the best method for looking at projections and predictions, as to be honest at best people will be around 60% correct. They also have a free weekly cheat sheet where you can input your team and get back projections; if you have multiple teams it's worth dropping the cash for the premium edition.
  • Reddit Fantasy Football: They're very active and frequently post new information and articles. Probably one of the easiest ways to pick up new info, and the community is well moderated.
  • Pro Football Reference: More statistics than is probably healthy for any particular person. If you're at the point in your fantasy football progression where you're consulting sites like this for information then congratulations, you're one of us.
  • Gridiron Experts: Previously a free site, they've decided to go for a free model this year.
Useful Premium Resources
  • Rotopass: A group rate for multiple sites; Footballguys, Rotowire, ESPN Insider, RosterWatch, RotoViz, Fantasy Insiders, and $10 credit to FanDuel and DRAFT.
  • The Fantasy Footballers: Three guys with a great podcast and an extremely comprehensive draft guide.
  • 4For4: Known for their accuracy, and one of the premium services I subscribe to.
  • Rotoviz: Premium article-heavy site full of interesting analysis and data driven projections. One of my favorites.
  • Dynasty League Football: This site offers advice specific to dynasty leagues. I consider this a mandatory subscription unless you're in my dynasty league.
  • Pro Football Focus: Additional projections and fantasy news.
  • FantasyPros: The standard for fantasy data aggregation, and you can pay for access to a roster management and mock draft package called My Playbook that is very helpful.
Useful League Resources
  • Clicky Draft: Online free draft board. I used this last year in my family league to put the board on our flat screen.
ADP, Rankings and Projections

Twitter
Football Guys
@Sigmundbloom Produces the excellent "Audible" podcast. My favorite follow.
@MattWaldman Writes the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I'm not sure he sleeps.
@JeneBramel MD and Football Guy, excellent for injury updates on gameday morning and IDP advice

Misc. Writers
@4for4_Paul - from 4for4, most accurate guy the last couple years
@ChrisWesseling Former writer for NBC rotoworld, works for Falcons media now I think. Not sure if he's still gonna do fantasy when 2013 rolls around. If he does, he's one of the best, and well worth the follow.
@dpbrugler Dane Brugler, former NFL scout and writer for CBS, good follow.
@SC_DougFarrar Doug Farrar of shutdown corner
@LanceZierlein Runs thesidelineview.com, great follow
@Dumonjic_Alen Bleacher report/sidelineview contributor, player evals. Smart kid.

Pro Football Focus
@MikeClayNFL Accurate, prolific, one of the better writers
@JeffRatcliffe Great for IDP
@PFF_RossMiles Also great for IDP, does a weekly IDP show with Ratcliffe
@dynastytim used to write for Dynasty League Football, just joined PFF. Great dynasty follow.

NFL Guys
@AlbertBreer
@gregcosell
@mortreport
@AdamSchefter

Varg posted:

Footballguys just emailed out an entire list of who to follow on twitter for every team's fantasy purposes.. I might actually pay attention to twitter now. I put it into an excel file in case anyone who's not subscribed to their mailings is interested. BeerGod feel free to add this to the OP too if you want

https://www.dropbox.com/s/e2td2v607i1oexx/fantasy-football-twitter.xls?dl=0

Podcasts
  • The Fantasy Footballers: Has basically become the default fantasy football podcast, featuring three guys who are full time fantasy nuts. Decent balance of humor and conversation, although personally I find them somewhat repetitive.
  • The Audible: Footballguys has a regular podcast that combines a healthy amount of insight, injury help with Dr. Jene Bramel, and they're very football-focused if you prefer that to other podcasts that have gimmicks or gags.
  • CBS Fantasy Football Today: Another high tier podcast that balances humor and insight, with multiple perspectives and a decent amount of access thanks to their CBS affiliation.
  • 4For4 Most Accurate Podcast: John Paulsen has repeatedly won awards for accuracy, and he provides a ton of information in a condensed amount of time. The mood is light and never boring, and at only 30 minutes per episode it's short and to the point.
  • Around The NFL: Although not technically a fantasy-specific podcast, they have a lot of useful information and provide a pretty cool insight into the workings of NFL media. They also seem to get a ton of really cool guests and the conversation is surprisingly candid. This has become my favorite podcast.


Introduction
Fantasy Football is the ancient art of nerds pouring over statistics in the hopes of predicting how infinitely more athletic and successful men will perform over the course of a professional football game. In recent history it has become a billion dollar industry while infusing itself into the collective psyche of the NFL. Countless podcasts, articles, websites, and every other source under the sun have sprung up in support of what is essentially glorified socialized gambling. There's even a television show about a league. Fantasy Football is basically Dungeons & Dragons for jocks football fans. You assemble a roster of individual players from across the National Football League, and then each week the individual performance of the player is tracked and scored. Positive actions like passing, catching, scoring touchdowns, or making field goals give you points. In some leagues negative actions like fumbles, interceptions, or missing a field goal can take away points. At the end of each Monday Night Football game your total score is added up to determine how well you did that week. In many leagues you are pitted against another team for a head-to-head match that determines a winner and a loser. At the end of the season the teams with the most wins will participate in a playoff tournament. The winner of the playoffs will be the champion.

The leagues themselves vary from friendly to insane, including at least one where the loser gets a tattoo chosen by the winner. Other leagues have pots worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, or byzantine rules about relegation, delegation, salary caps, and every other statistic under the sun. We are collectively insane, and we can't get enough. Fantasy Football itself is a lot of fun. Not only do you get to make a game out of watching football, but it also forces you to learn about the sport as a whole. I would never have known (or cared) that last year Darren McFadden was struggling with the Raider's transition from a power blocking scheme to a zone block until he became my first round draft pick and started costing me games. It makes you a better fan when you know all the players on the field. Dirt Worshipper said it best:

Dirt Worshipper posted:

Before I played fantasy I despised it. We all know the obnoxious guy at the sports bar in the Brady jersey, running in between TV’s screaming ”Throw Jennings the ball!”. They disagree fundamentally with the lessons our fathers taught us about football: You root for your home team, through good years and bad. The bad years are meant to be borne with grim fidelity, the good years are our reward. Fantasy was just wrong.
But then I tried it. I joined a work league and had a blast. Rooting for your “real” football team and your fantasy one are not (usually) mutually exclusive. You need not become that guy. Fantasy has not made me a worse fan. On the contrary, my knowledge of the entire league has grown. I’m able to really enjoy more than one game every Sunday. If you love football, give fantasy a try.

The Basics
A league consists of several owners (typically 12), one of whom is the commissioner who manages the league. At the beginning of the season each owner drafts a roster of players. Rosters are typically fifteen players and consist of starters and a bench of reserve players to replace starters who are injured or on bye weeks. A typical starting lineup that will mirror NFL positions and consist of 1 Quarterback (QB), 2 Running Backs (RB), 3 Wide Receivers (WR), 1 Tight End (TE), a Place Kicker (PK), and a Team Defense/Special Teams (DST).

Each week your players will score points for your team according to their performance. Scoring can be very simple or incredibly complicated depending on the league, but many leagues use a standard scoring system where passing provides 1 point per 25 yards, 4 points per passing touchdown, and -1 point per interception and receiving and rushing gain 1 point per 10 yards, 6 points per receiving/rushing touchdown. Field goals are typically worth 3 points, and team defense scoring depends on a number of factors including sacks, interceptions, points allowed, defensive touchdowns, etc. Many leagues will use different scoring systems depending on the preferences of the players. One significant difference is PPR, or Points Per Reception, where wide receiver are awarded a set number of points (typically 0.5 or 1) for every reception.

The league season will go for a set number of weeks during the regular NFL season. Typically the last two to four weeks of the regular season are reserved for the playoffs, and most leagues end on the sixteenth week because many NFL teams will sit their star players in Week 17 if the outcome doesn't matter.

Variations
There are many roster variations that different leagues will use. Many leagues use a flex position where different positions can fit into a slot. The most common form of flex position replaces the third WR position in the standard lineup above with a WR/RB/TE flex position. That means that any Wide Receiver, Running Back, or Tight End player could be used in that slot. Leagues where that flex position allows a QB are typically called "2 QB leagues" because quarterbacks typically score far more points that other players. Other leagues utilize IDP or Individual Defensive Players instead of Team Defenses. IDP players score points for tackles, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns, etc. Many leagues are several years old and include rules to provide continuity between seasons. In contrast to a redraft league where every player is drafted at the start of each season some leagues use keepers where team owners are allowed to keep a set number of players per year. Other leagues are dynasty leagues where the entire roster is kept from year to year. Typically dynasty leagues use much deeper benches and include a rookie draft.

The Draft
Every league starts with a draft, where team owner pick their players. There are two major types of draft; the snake draft and the auction draft. A snake draft is where every owner receives a draft position and then picks a player in order for a number of rounds equal to the roster size. It's called a snake draft because the order "snakes" back and forth each round. In other words the owner who picked last in the first round will pick first in the second. Auction drafts are where each team owner has a set budget and they bid for each player until everyone's roster has been filled. There are numerous drafting strategies out there, but ultimately the goal of any draft is to get the maximum amount of value for your players.

Trades and the Waiver Wire
While drafting is essential, the most successful teams typically win by taking advantage of the waiver wire and trades. Trading is precisely what it sounds like; players offer each other trades that are accepted or rejected. Many leagues incorporate an approval process to prevent collusion where two players will deliberately stack one team and then split the winnings; there is no universe where Adrian Peterson is worth Mark Sanchez. Depending on the league trading may either be nonexistent or commonplace. Many leagues will end trading several weeks before the playoffs begin.

The NFL has hundreds of players and most of them will not be on a team roster. As players are injured or fall out of favor team owners will be forced to pick up free agents to replace them. To do this they use the waiver wire. Each week individual players are locked the moment their team starts their game. For the duration of this "waiver period" owners who wish to claim a free agent submit a "waiver claim." Owners who wish to make more than one waiver claim must indicate the priority of their claims. At the end of the waiver period (typically a day or two after the beginning of the new week) the league software checks the standings of the teams. Going in reverse order (worst standing to highest) the teams get their highest priority claim. If multiple teams have submitted waiver claims for the same player it will go the team with the lowest standing, and the other teams will get their lower priority claims. After the waiver period has ended every player is available to be claimed immediately. The waiver wire is extremely important. Alfred Morris, the 5th ranked running back of 2012, was a free agent in most leagues until the first week. Many owners use the waiver wire to "stream" defenses and other players based on that week's match.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Apr 26, 2018

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Every year I put together a list of general suggestions for draft strategies, and the community provided some wonderful insight and updates. Now that the NFL draft is over and fantasy football season has started I thought it would be appropriate to revisit those ideas and put together some new thoughts and suggestions. Consider this a living document, and let me know what you think!

Draft strategies are curious things, a strange combination of prognostication and historical analysis. The fact that we're even discussing this right now is indicative of our collective madness. But every year we see the same questions. When should I draft a QB? Should I go RB-RB-RB or WR-RB-WR? Should I get a TE early or wait until the end? I'm in a 2QB/4WR/1RB/FLX/2DST 19 man league with 3.14 PPR and TEs get +1 PPR on Thursday games against teams with blue pants, when should I draft a kicker?

The answer to all these questions is the same: It Depends On The Circumstances.

When you draft a player, you're making a statement. You're telling the world "At this moment I think this guy is the best player available for my team." In order to make that statement you have to have more than a positional strategy, you need to take a holistic approach. You need to take into consideration the needs of your team, the risk of that player under-performing his draft position, the opportunity cost of drafting that player, bye weeks, and a myriad of other factors. Relying on a simple positional strategy omits all of that. Same with relying on a raw value based drafting approach, using rankings, or any other single method. The best drafts combine strategies and consider the whole picture.

  1. Know thy league. If your league uses PPR and your cheat sheet is for standard scoring you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. Know your roster requirements, number of teams, starting lineups, and all of your scoring rules. Things like 2QB, keepers, superflex (which is a nice way of saying 2QB with the option to fail), big play scoring, and six point passing touchdowns can dramatically alter how you draft. You should also know your opponents and their tendencies. Is one player a massive homer? Consider how that will affect his draft strategy. Does your league tend to draft QBs super early? Exploit that by picking up valuable skill positions and going with a streaming QB approach. This also applies to whatever sources your opponents use to draft, such as the default rankings.
  2. The level of risk you are willing to take should correlate with the round of the draft. Your early picks are not for flyers, they're for reliable sources of points that can form the core of your team. I've come to be very risk averse in my early picks, mostly because of the damage done by drafting guys like Darren McFadden or Toby Gerhart. Look at the history of your player and any disruptive factors (age, usage, coaching change, team change) that could increase the uncertainty of the prediction. I'm also not a fan of taking rookies in early rounds for this reason.
  3. Know the opportunity cost of your draft choices. Opportunity cost is the essentially the price you pay for the road not travelled. In fantasy terms it's the value of the players you won't draft because of your choice, either because your positional need is decreased or because someone else will draft them. This is one of the core philosophies behind value based drafting, but it's more than just points. It requires you to not only know how you will draft, but ideally also your opponents. Will you drafting player X force your opponent to draft player Y, or will that guy still be around on your next turn? The greatest feeling in the world is when you make your pick and someone after you cries out in anguish.
  4. Develop your own tools for draft day and practice with them. I started making BeerSheets because I wanted something I could print out, bring with me wherever I went, and know that I could follow it to create my team. It needed to be fast, easy to read, and provide enough information to make the right decision without overwhelming you with data. Some drafts let you bring computers, others are just yourself and your mind. Whatever the rules, make sure you have the tools available so that you can stay on top of the draft order and always get the most value.
  5. Tiers are superior to strict rankings. There is no way to predict that player X will do better than player Y with enough fidelity to rank them before the season starts. This is why I'm such a fan of using tiers to determine the relative projections of players. Realistically if two players are ranked right next to each other then there probably isn't enough of a difference to matter and you should be considering other qualities such as historic performance, opportunity, injury risk, competition, and upside.
  6. Don't be a homer, but it's okay to have multiple guys on the same team. Aside from bye weeks it's not that big of a deal. What you don't want to do is be predictable enough for someone else to exploit your tendencies. The other side of this is drafting players from your team's rival. Can you stomach having someone you hate on your team? If the value is there consider swallowing your pride. Moral victories are for losers.
  7. Don't be afraid to reach. The best experts in Fantasy Football average a 60% accuracy. Remember that the numbers are just guesses, and if you have a gut feeling there's nothing wrong with going with it. In the end it's your team and you should be happy with it.
  8. The less predictable a position, the later that position should be drafted. This means drafting kickers and DSTs very late unless your scoring rules are weird enough to require a special strategy. Unless your draft rules require that you fill out your roster then don't bother getting a kicker. Use that last pick on a total flyer and see if anything changes leading up to Week 1. Just don't forget to pick up a kicker off the WW before your first game.
  9. The maximum value you will get for your trade bait is the draft pick you just wasted, so don't even bother. Some people exercise a strategy of picking someone up with the express purpose of trading them immediately. Remember, the four QBs you cleverly picked up even though you didn't need them were passed over by everyone else. You just sacrificed a team need for a lottery ticket that isn't likely to pay off. This is a particularly egregious mistake in the top half of the draft. This is different from drafting a late round flyer and hoping they turn out to be a sleeper, which is sound draft strategy.
  10. You can lose your league in the draft, but you win it in the waiver wire. No matter how well or poorly you draft, that's only a part of the game. Once the draft is done the real game begins. Follow the waiver wire religiously, and don't be afraid to drop your late round scrubs for something more promising if you get more information. I'm less enthusiastic about preseason trades unless you have access to new information or you're fleecing a homer.
  11. Mock until you can draft in your sleep. Mock drafting is a fantastic resource. Not only is it fairly fun, but it also helps you see how players will be taken and understand trends. If you can get to the point where you can instantly see a reach or a steal then when the real draft happens you'll be far more prepared.
  12. Challenge your perspective. It is far too easy to rely on preconceived notions or preliminary assumptions when dealing with Fantasy Football. Constantly challenge your perceptions and seek out sources that disagree with you. Find data wherever you can and honestly assess it, even if it counters your original train of thought. At worst you'll have an even stronger understanding of things. At best you may discover you were wrong.

Teemu Pokemon posted:

If it's a 1 keeper league, the goal should just be to keep the best ADP bargain, or a top end stud like Brown or Johnson if you have one, and then just treat the draft and subsequent rankings as a redraft. Don't reach on young guys because it's a "keeper league" because it's not.


Also, as an aside, one keeper leagues are dumb and pointless and you should either do a full blown keeper/dynasty or just do a redraft. Tell your league to stop sucking

Spoeank posted:

DON'T 👏 DRAFT 👏 TIGHT 👏 ENDS 👏

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Apr 30, 2017

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Slow draft? Slow draft.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

So did the NFL bring back the [D]oubtful status?

wait maybe it was [P]robable that's gone now

Football's been over for like three months so my brain has flushed all my football knowledge down the toilet and I have to re-learn everything in august

[P] is gone.

Sataere posted:

Only suggestion is add the link to that rules post that is a work of art

Which post?

Forever_Peace posted:

Ironically, you forgot to mention Beersheets. Those things are too invaluable not to be in the OP.

I'll probably update the OP once I have them ready for 2017.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

drizzle posted:

I'm excited about Perine ending up with Washington. I have the seventh pick in my dynasty league and I might be targeting him with it.

He seems like a fairly one dimensional player in a crowded backfield. What makes you think he's worth drafting?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

dkj posted:

What hosting site has the best mobile app? Been using Yahoo which was fine until last year where it got really buggy.

ESPN is my favorite, but I haven't tried any others. Suffice to say that ESPN has been good enough that I haven't cared to look elsewhere for years. The only other site I use is MFL.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

drizzle posted:

It's just as crowded as any backfield right now and it's not like there are any studs there. From what I hear his pass pro should be good enough to get him on the field if he can beat out kelly in camp and I don't think he's any more one-dimensional than anyone else on the roster anyway. And short strong heavy RBs are my favorite type of RBs too for some reason, just fun to watch.

NFL channel seems infatuated with him as well. I think I'll look at him as a late pickup for sure based on all the gushing they're doing, plus your comments.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
^^^ Draft on value, trade for need.

Veritek83 posted:

Just saw he was Mayock's #5 RB. Could be interesting, but I have to imagine they're still going to be really pass-heavy in Washington.

Keith Marshall might also be healthy.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Also it's effectively a 5WR league so I wouldn't even worry about RB.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Seems like I can finally drop Devin Smith in my dynasty league right? It's a 12 person, 30 player per team league so I'm sure there's some equally valuable trash available

Yeah. 30 players is pretty deep but he's an easy drop for another flyer.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
So I guess the Jets and Bears are pretty good teams to stream defenses against (and avoid taking players from). Who else?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Azhais posted:

http://nesn.com/2017/05/this-espn-fantasy-football-scoring-change-could-greatly-affect-your-league/

ESPN is no longer going to count touchdowns given up by the offense against your DST.

gently caress yes.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Butter Hole posted:

Perhaps a dumb question: is there a beer sheets-equivalent for IDP? My dynasty league is introducing defensive players and the draft is this weekend. I am woefully unprepared. Anyone have some recommended resources?

It's very hard to make a draft sheet for IDP because there are very few projections.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

drizzle posted:

Redskins beat writers won't shut up about Perine winning out the starting tailback job. At least wait until my rookie draft starts assholes

He's a shiny new toy in a field that doesn't have any competition. In other words typical Redskins.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Spoeank posted:

Okay Gentlemen, I enjoyed Mariota vs. Jameis


Today's debate:
John Ross
Mike Williams


Mike Williams went first, and is by far the better receiver, but he is entering an extremely crowded situation. Quick reminder of the Chargers offensive weapons that aren't Mike Williams: Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin. That's a detriment to Williams, as there's so much there for Rivers to go to that isn't Williams.

There's also a couple of issues with Williams himself. He got physically shoved off his routes too much and had trouble creating separation in college. The thing with that is... it didn't matter. 50/50 balls were not 50/50; he was amazing at the catch point, which seemingly will translate. rivers is also a good improvisational QB, which will work well when Williams gets knocked off his route.

He also disappeared in the red zone at Clemson; whether that's game planning or necessity we'll see at the next level but a lack of TDs might be an issue with his 2017 fantasy value.


Then there's John Ross. There's not nearly as much in terms of weaponry in Cincy. It's AJ Green, Eifert, and whichever one of the RBs is on the field at the time. That opens up a good amount of opportunity for Ross. I don't know if andey can reliably take full advantage of Ross's blazing speed, but it should do wonders for the overall Bengals offense (especially with Mixon). I think he's going to be a fun DFS play because his speed will create room for him underneath to run past everyone on a slant route (aka the Giants' only play in 2016 with ODB).

The easy comp is D-Jax, which is fair, to me. He will be boom-bust and ultimately a fun DFS play or a second flex spot in normal fantasy leagues.

Ultimately I think Ross ends up with more fantasy points from a handful of 70+ TD catches but I think Williams has more week-to-week and PPR value. I think Williams will have trouble with touchdowns, which will drive him down a tad.

I prefer Ross. Hamstrings can be extremely troublesome (see DeSean Jackson) and if that happens then Ross becomes an obvious WR1 from an opportunity standpoint.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Rotopass doesn't have a discount code this year, right?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Matt Jones is not going to be a Redskin. He was told he's "not part of the plans" for the team.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Rotopass code EARLY ends this weekend.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Drunk Nerds posted:

Seems to good to be true? Adams in a dynasty for a buncha mediocre doodoo, AND you get some other stuff...

I don't know if Hyde is mediocre doodoo, but I agree it's a good trade.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

Yeah, Hyde is more the piece I'm sad about losing than CJA, but he's the piece that the other owner wants too so I doubt the trade goes down without him involved.

Just take the trade. Remember that running backs are viable for far less than good wide receivers, so in a dynasty league he could be a long term asset.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I put this up on Reddit but figured I would share it here:

quote:

Redskins fan here. The only thing I would be comfortable saying is that Chris Thompson should be a reliable PPR flex play. How the rest of the position pans out between Perine, Marshall, Brown, and Kelley is going to be extremely difficult to establish. With Jones gone Perine has the highest draft pedigree of those remaining, and also has the aura of being "their" guy as opposed to McCloughan's picks.

"Technically No Longer Fat" Rob has cut his body fat percentage down to 13% and reports indicate that he's shown more athleticism and explosiveness in OTAs. Whether or not that matters given the political and athletic environment will depend on training camp, but Gruden has started rookies without hesitation in the past.

Samaje Perine is an absolute bruiser, and what he lacks in agility he makes up for in brutality. He is an ideal goal-line back, an area where the Redskins desperately need help (Washington was 30th in Red Zone scores in 2016), and stands apart from the competition in terms of raw toughness. He also has the physical traits necessary to endure the grueling pace of a lead back in the NFL. Seriously, just [read this](http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=210262415).

Keith Marshall was drafted in the 7th round last year due to his 4.31 speed in spite of being 220 pounds. He was drafted by McCloughan on upside and speed, did little to demonstrate that upside in last year's preseason, and then got hurt and was put on IR for an elbow injury. At this point Marshall is another lottery ticket who might not make the roster, especially given the concerns about his injury history and lack of vision.

Mack Brown was cut last year's preseason, made the practice squad, was signed from the squad after Matt Jones couldn't play in October, and rushed a grand total of 8 times. It's unlikely that he'll even make the roster this year.

So what do I think? There's a reason that Samaje Perine is getting so much hype in the preseason, and that's because his skill set and athleticism simply sets himself apart from the rest of the backfield. Where Marshall is a burner and Kelley is trying to get more agile, Perine is simply a battering ram. I consider his goal line ability alone to be worth focusing on.

I'm focusing on drafting Perine, and I consider Thompson to be a no brainer late round flyer in PPR leagues.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jun 7, 2017

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

kiimo posted:

Is there anything more hilarious than telling me what someone's upcoming fantasy ceiling is?

Saying they have a high floor in a game notorious for injuries?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Zombie Tsunami posted:

my god, they are so thirsty for those beersheets over at reddit

Yeah I guess I'm doing something right.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

kiimo posted:

Your beersheets helped me to come in last in my league.

Then again they also helped me to win two other leagues but I'm gonna need 100% efficiency moving forward.

Doing that would require me to triple the price, and I don't think people would appreciate that.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Spoeank posted:

TEs rule sorry y'all are fuckin babbies who don't like difficult fantasy football things


Beer this is the official petition to make cheating for charity a 2TE league

Petition acknowledged, reviewed, and denied.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Remember that Keeper rules mean that the early rounds will be far more depleted than usual; Jordy Nelson likely won't be there in the second. That said I'm a big fan of drafting on value. Johnson is absolutely an obvious pick and even the 10 spots is significant value. As for your second, here are the consensus ADP from FantasyPros and where you would be drafting them:

Nelson: 12.5 [11]
Edelman: 49.5 [38]
Fitzgerald: 53.5 [59]
Montgomery: 49.5 [110]
Crowder: 65 [110]

So by ADP Montgomery is your best bet. Plus if he's still a RB/WR then that could be fantastic.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Welp.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I will start up a new Slow Draft thread soon.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3824240

Sign up. Slow draft.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

Rotoviz gets the F_P stamp of approval.

Rotoviz is Cool and Good. I pay for a lot of sites, they are the best.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Cervixalot posted:

If you want to hear coach/camp narratives about why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Audible. Get ready for hype trains.

If you want to hear film analysis of why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Harris Football podcast. Get ready to have cold water poured on your hype trains.

If you want to hear analytics and metrics-based analysis of why players will be good in fantasy, listen to Rotoviz Radio. Get ready for dry delivery, but smart and balanced takes backed by numbers.

Each have their zealots, and there are plenty of other pods out there that delve into each school of analysis to varying degrees, but those three exemplify each area best IMO.

Rotoviz has some of the smartest content out there, and their AIR yards metric was super useful in identifying trade targets in-season last year.

If you want to be entertained and just care about news, Around the NFL is cool and good.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

What's going on with the N/A rows at TE and WR?

My source for position levels has their names backwards.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

Something's Fishy Bowl

Smells Like 89's Girlfriend

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

pubic works project posted:

Beer, do you do beersheets for auction leagues?

Yup.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Spoeank posted:

Ya boy just got offered $150 to put 500 words on cbs digital's scout.com about the fantasy football prospects of the jacksonville jaguars

Gonna go hang out with prisco now

Awesome.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Rotoviz has a really solid article on why last year was an incredible fluke in terms of RB scoring and RB health.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

That article is sort of convincing me that, rather than zero-RB being the best approach, you should draft more RBs in the first few rounds.

Because:
1. RBs should get injured more, meaning, healthy good RBs become an increasingly scarce resource throughout the season
2. WRs should get injured less, meaning, healthy good WRs remain a plentiful resource throughout the season
3. You still have to start two RBs. Zero RB says you will always start two mediocre RBs, and sometimes (if one gets injured, which is more likely than losing a WR to injury) you'll be forced to start a low-grade guy to replace your mid-round RB
4. Everyone knows about zero-RB, which means you'll still be trying to take your top RB under competition from the other owners, and similarly, those owners will be grabbing all the best WRs in the first three rounds, reducing your ability to get a good WR.

If you can roster four good RBs, you'll still be dominating your opponents at RB even if one gets severely injured; meanwhile, since good WRs will remain plentiful and largely uninjured, the fact you rostered fewer of them from later rounds is less likely to leave you crippled by a WR injury.

...but really I think what I am taking away is, you should draft based on not doing what most of the other owners in your league are doing during the draft; a contrarian approach nets you bargains and you can shape your roster to account for the relative likelihood of injuries. And, secondarily, fantasy football is mostly down to luck, because not only is it very difficult to predict player injuries, even the rate at which players get injured is subject to high variance.

So the original 0RB article goes into why this is a bad idea. To be clear I mean "bad" in the sense that "a bunch of adults are making educated guesses about a game wholly dependent on random chance". The whole thing boils down to the concept of fragility, robustness, and antifragility. Fragile things are things that get worse when chaos hits, robust things are designed to endure chaos, and antifragile things actually get better when chaos occurs. The original Rotoviz article argues that traditional "BPA fill your starters" drafting is inherently fragile as only a few RBs are picked and the chance of one of them getting hurt is historically high. Going in for a large number of RBs is robust, as you have enough backup to endure the loss of a few RBs and still survive. 0RB is antifragile, in that the roster gets stronger as RBs goes down because your draft stock in them is less. The entire thing is dependent on the assertion that RBs generally get hurt more than WRs, so by focusing on WRs early you mitigate the risk of an early round pick busting out.

But as you say, the real approach is to go against the grain. If a lot of RBs are drafted then going WR heavy works because you can get value. If a lot of WRs are drafted then you can use a robust strategy that has maximum value (especially when combined with an understanding of which players have the best opportunity for volume). 0RB only works if there are elite WRs to draft.

Personally I really like the idea of focusing on late round gems like Terrance West and Jacquizz Rodgers to get me through the first few weeks while their competition is suspended.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Drunk Nerds posted:

This. This has always been true and will be true for the rest of time

This is one of the reasons I am so glad of how BeerSheets have worked out.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

von Metternich posted:

What's the best draft spot this year? I have second choice of slot, and I'm leaning towards grabbing #2 (or 1 if the guy ahead of me doesn't take it) and taking one of the big 3 rbs. Any reason to get clever and pick something else? (Standard league, 12 teams)

I would be pretty happy with 4-6. I really like the idea of getting a top flight WR this year.

  • Locked thread