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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

I mean, I'd feel pretty good about DJ / Gronk too.

The 10 spot is where things get dicey for me. Current ADP has people starting Gordon / Michael Thomas

I've gone McCoy/Freeman a few times and simply given no fucks.

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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

And then, what are you taking next, at the 26th/27th turn? I'd have a reallllly hard time taking RB-RB at the 12/13 turn, just because the next time you get to take a WR is a looooot of picks later.

In our mock slow draft my first six picks were LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman, Demaryius Thomas, Allen Robinson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Mark Ingram.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Spoeank posted:

Also because I'm a cool guy I'm doing research on a Saturday night... not for nothin but Paul Perkins had a slightly higher YPC than Latavius, Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, :siren: CHRISTINE MICHAEL :siren: and Melvin Gordon.

His ADP is in the seventh round and his competition moseyed out of town fwiw

Counterpoint: Giants Suck

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Perine starting over Kelley seems reasonable. Gruden has no problem starting rookies, and Perine was selected post McCloughan and you can bet the front office wants to prove they're better than the GM they fired.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

VietCampo posted:

Not sure if it was asked or said, but does anyone know if there's a rotopass promo code for this year?

There was. It expired, but they just did a promotion and if you email them they might give it to you anyway.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RisqueBarber posted:

This sounds cool. My only question is whether beersheets could do it.

It's something I've been meaning to do, but it would basically require me to rewrite... everything.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
:siren: IT HAS BEGUN :siren:

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Forever_Peace posted:

This is a good league you should join. The goons that run it are awesome, contract leagues are dope, and the team you're inheriting (Beer's old team) has David Johnson on a long contract.

It's a great league, I just need to cut down.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I just discovered that someone registered beersheets.com and has it full of fantasy football links.

Speaking of which: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/6okvcf/beersheets_20170720_rookie_training_camp_edition/

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Jul 21, 2017

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Silly Burrito posted:

And they registered it back in 2015. Looks like it's coming back up in August 2017 for renewal.

Yeah is there a way to snipe it?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RCarr posted:

How do people feel about Hopkins now with Osweiler out of the picture?

I feel like he's being drafted at his ceiling.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Sataere posted:

Luck should be fine. I'm more concerned about your third pick. Don't you read your own posts?

There was an interesting discussion about Kelce on the 4For4 podcast. Paulsen actually advocates for Kelce in the third since his floor is so high and in the case of Paulsen his next highest ranked WR is Crabtree.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Anyone up for the charity league?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Any major news out of training camp so far?

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Sataere posted:

The thing is, you can swap out DT or Hopkins for AB84/JJ and likely end up with two of Murray/Ajayi/Howard.

Hopkins is being drafted as his ceiling.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RCarr posted:

Moved from last page...

:siren: I need help from someone who has done a dynasty league with a snake style startup draft :siren:

I think this has been discussed, but how does a dynasty league that uses a snake startup draft handle the value of players for each following season after the first?

In an auction league, you have a salary cap, and each season following the startup season, a players contract would increase 10% (or whatever amount you decide)

But in a snake draft (non-auction) league, how does this work? Would you still use a salary cap and just apply a dollar amount by round? Like a first round pick is $25, second is $24, third is $23?

I'm looking to start a first time dynasty league using a 25 round startup snake draft. I'm having trouble figuring out how to handle player values going forward. I don't want teams to just be able to keep all 25 players with no penalty year to year, ya know?

Can anyone give some insight?

If I did a dynasty league from scratch I would do something with a salary cap, where the salary was based on the total points scored by a portion of the roster. For example the salary cap could be the total points scored by the top starters in each position and then players get to keep up to that value (including bench). Remaining players are then put into a draft with rookies.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
That's why I like linking salary cap to points scored. Draft the first year, then deal with caps.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Spoeank posted:

whoa breshad perriman is hurt again and kevin white doesnt feel right this is me being shocked. :geno:

Maclin should be a great value pick.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Cheating for Charity is up! Looking for anyone who is interested in playing for a good cause!

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3828867

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Inspector_666 posted:

Update says ankle but who knows.

Hope is a bad roll.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

pubic works project posted:

Well I'll admit that I glossed over Cousins and focused on Winston more. I'm a little down on Cousins this year because of the change in his receiving corps and the injury to Reed (again). Plus Cousins has burned me in the past. But I would gladly roll with him over Winston if I had DJ and AB.

This will probably get me laughed at, but I think Cousins might have even better weapons than last year.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
New BeerSheets are up.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Just a reminder that the charity league is looking for more folks!

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Any thoughts on Sports Injury Predictor? They have things like Hyde having an 80% chance to miss at least two quarters with an injury, and an expectation that he misses around 3 games.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I agree that the missed games value seems like BS. Supposedly the probability of injury is based on the statistics specific to each player's injury history.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Doltos posted:

So they're saying that when X player got Y injury they missed Z games. That also runs into the wall of 'every persons' body is unique and different' which leads us to this:


I think this is the most deciding factor in an athlete's recovery. There are plenty of guys who have ran on torn ACL's for an entire game and produced stats, they just horribly gently caress their knee up after. Then there are guys who sit if they bruise their ittle bittle ribs (AJ Green two years ago you loving pussy [sorry it just cost me my league and he was perfectly fine a few weeks later]).

Hyde is definitely one of the latter. I owned him all last year and felt like he'd get injured at any moment because A) he runs into all contact and never misses guys ever and B) he babies his injuries because he's from Ohio State and every buckeye is a baby

Their analysis appears to be a bit more complicated than that. Incidentally according to their analysis there's no such thing as an "injury prone" player. It's mostly a question of time since the last injury and the number of touches the player has. I agree that it's hard to put metrics to player willlpower, but I do think it's an interesting exercise.

Their games missed model only had an R^2 value of 0.271 which I believe is pretty poor.

https://twitter.com/DataScientistFF/status/890797886815879168

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Aug 6, 2017

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

pubic works project posted:

Quincy Enunwa got put on the IR with his neck injury.

Jets are now proper hosed.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RisqueBarber posted:

I pick 5th in my league and in a mock draft I took Zek, Aaron Rodgers, Kelce, and then Jordan Reed(flex) in that order (6 PPTD/ 0.5 PPR / 12 Team). Have any of you gone double elite tight end to fill a flex? How did it work out?

I did Graham and Gronk a few years ago, and in a single flex league I hated it because of how much it constrains you since you'll always want to fill that slot with your high draft pick.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RisqueBarber posted:

I guess I didn't think the -3 int was such a big deal. I only mentioned the 6 point passing touchdown in my original post. What's the norm -2?

edit: The beersheet I'm using is actually using -2 interception values so I guess Rodger's value should be even higher.


I agree, I had Carlos Hyde last year who was great until his injury. It just looks like Miami is going to take a step back this year and I don't think any of their fantasy players are worth their current ADP.

You can request a custom form with -3 int. It's a minor difference from -2. The 6 point passing TD is the bigger deal.

Also you can put an "x" or a number in the column to the left of the player's name and it will automatically black out or highlight that player.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I really like keeper settings that divide the round in half. So if a player was drafted in the 4th, they become a 2nd round pick. Undrafted players are equivalent to a 16th, so they end up in the 8th.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
New BeerSheets!

MacheteZombie posted:

Hey Beersheets can't handle positional ppr right? (wr = .5, rb = .75, te = 1)

Not without me making a mess of things. You can fake it by requesting three sheets with the various PPRs and then copy/pasting it the way you want.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Alfalfa posted:

Quick repost since keeper selection is due tonight. If anyone has any input.

Graham. I debated Ware as well. 4For4's rushing expectation series is very high on him.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Redskins and Ravens look like dog poo poo. Hopefully this is just preseason being preseason but it is not a good look for Washington in particular.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Spoeank posted:

Samaje fuckin up makes me sad :(

Yeah that really deflated expectations. OTOH Fournette and Cook looked terrifying.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RCarr posted:

drat, that's gonna tank his value. Time to grab him in my dynasty startup :getin:

Probably a second round value?

EDIT: I meant in redraft.

Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Aug 11, 2017

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

RVProfootballer posted:

Unless him getting a suspension makes him more likely to in the future, he really shouldn't fall even that far. Beckham and Evans sure, Bell and DJ arguably if you like them more than Zeke, but then who else? Brown, Julio, Cooper? I still take Zeke over them.

Yeah I should have clarified that I meant redraft. Shouldn't change much in dynasty at all.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Should be fun to use this as an experiment to see how long it takes sites to update projections.

Also LOL everything.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Metapod posted:

Idk how good mcvay is as an offensive mind but if the box is stacked he better tell Goff to audible to a Watkins streak route

By all accounts McVay is an offensive genius.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Gearman posted:

Keeper league question. 2QB, 0.5 PPR, do I keep:

- LeSean McCoy (3rd Rd)

or

- Todd Gurley (6th Rd)

I have first pick, so I could keep Gurley and just draft Shady first overall, but it's very likely that Aaron Rodgers will be available as well. In a 2QB league, Rodgers value is pretty insane. Edit: Zeke will likely be available, too.

McCoy.

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Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Doltos posted:

He's from the Gruden school which uses complex decoy routes. How that always opens up the run game is a mystery to me but the point is it's frustrating as gently caress to own a Gruden WR. They'll get you near 1k yards and 4-6ish TDs and it'll feel like they can get you so much more.

Also I've always been interested to talk to a true football genius, like the one Belichick used to keep chained in his basement. I want to know the true poo poo about football that you never even think about.

He worked under Kyle Shanahan before that as the TE coach, and was apparently so well regarded that he became the OC under Gruden.

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