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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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ISeeCuckedPeople posted:6 to 8 hours is a long period of time. If I could fly for a reasonable price as I understand you can in England to these places that I go in America I would. That's because your airlines are bad. You can quite easily get £100 2-hour flights around the EU, so airfares are cheap enough subsidy isn't needed, decreased emissions are. Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 00:58 on Jun 1, 2017 |
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Jun 1, 2017 00:54
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waffle posted:If we're talking about local races now I think Southampton Itchen stands a decent (but not great) chance of being a Labour gain--I wish the local party were focusing on it a little more (they're focused on keeping Southampton Test), but realistically that won't make a big difference in the end. I think because of the UKIP vote it'll prove harder to win than other marginals, if Labour win Itchen they'll likely be a long way towards forming a government. It was a fair decision to focus on Test a month ago when the outlook was gloomy, but they really should be redeploying to Itchen about now to take it back. The campaign staff in the Southampton Labour party are pretty incompetent though, so it won't happen.
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Jun 1, 2017 20:30
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According to the projection today, the Tories will be somewhere between 285 and 353 seats. Which is a pretty huge window.
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Jun 1, 2017 21:05
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Speaking of which: The absolute shitshow that is Labour Students has descended into holding a Special Conference to vote for the people running Labour Students for the next year, then blatantly rigging the election so the Progress types who currently run it give it up to their mates, instead of actually letting One Member One Vote happen and someone who supports it getting elected. Highlights include - A bunch of people from one uni labour club turning up, claiming to be the delegates for that club, while the actual club president frantically emails the conference staff saying they are a bunch of liars and they should not be allowed it (the emails were ignored and that had full voting rights) - Holding key votes in the main hall while the BAME delegates are holding their meetings, and then barring their entry to vote - Straight up impersonation of Chairs of committees, so one of Their Lads could chair a committee and not someone who might actually change something. Of course, since this is student politics, and there's a GE on, no-one gives a poo poo. So Labour Students will continue to be a resting ground for Blairites who want a job before being a SPAD and going into a safe seat.
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Jun 2, 2017 17:29
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Baron Corbyn posted:I read that Alastair Campbell tweet as him promoting his son's piece not necessarily endorsing Corbyn himself. The "Like Father Like Son" bit I read as him supporting Corbyn aswell, but who knows.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:15
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Pesmerga posted:And Jesus, did the BBC put out an advertisement ensuring a massive oval office quota? Well none of the York Labour Society got in, but by the sound of it plenty of Young Tories did...
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Jun 2, 2017 21:52
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Sinn Fein and the speaker mean that the actual number for a majority is 322. And the Tories can probably get support from the 10ish DUP/UUP seats in westminster, even if the Tories don't make a deal with the lib dems. So really, Tories have to drop below 310 seats to not form a minority government I imagine (Assuming that Lib Dem/DUP support is mutually exclusive).
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Jun 7, 2017 11:33
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CottonWolf posted:I'd go with automatic registration, the ability to vote online and PR, but all this is academic, because neither the Tories nor Labour want that, because it's against their narrow political interests. Oh god not online voting. I do not trust the government to make a IT infrastructure which wouldn't be hacked, and it makes allegations of foul play much easier.
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Jun 7, 2017 11:37
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For Poll-watchers, Survation are publishing their final poll at 10pm tonight, and last election this was the poll of theirs which gave the right Tory/Labour voteshare which they sat on - So it might be accurate.
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Jun 7, 2017 12:49
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It all comes down to if the Lib Dems would vote for the same Queens Speech/ Budget as the DUP would, over a Labour government. If they propped up the government for the 2 time in 7 years, a Tory government would continue, otherwise Labour + SNP would probably rule.
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Jun 7, 2017 15:37
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Zalakwe posted:They don't need to vote for it, just not vote it down. The oppo would basically have the Tories on a leash until they felt like collapsing the Government. Actually, in the YouGov numbers (which arn't happening anyways) Labour+SNP+Greens+Plyd outnumber Tories+NI unionists, so if the lib dems abstained the government would just collapse by one or two votes. Not that we'd get that, much too good for us.
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Jun 7, 2017 15:44
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My local ward has 70-80 volunteers come in today and are currently running 10 teams.
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Jun 8, 2017 17:40
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On another note : according to someone in York who knew Piers Corbyn since freshers, he is a lovely lad and a areal sweetheart
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Jun 9, 2017 00:47
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Best result is Tory+DUp coalition leads to election again this year, Corbyn takes his positive vision and builds on it with a few tweaks while Tory infighting removes any perception of competence and stability from the electorate.
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Jun 9, 2017 10:25
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Scotland going Tory is the fault of FPTP, no more no less.
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Jun 9, 2017 12:20
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Ed milliband doesn't want a cabinet seat apparently: he's been offered shadow environment before and turned it down. Not out of anti-corbyn feeling, but a desire for new blood, is what I heard.
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Jun 9, 2017 20:17
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On the politics and age thing, I think the research shows you set in your political beliefs around 30 - So you can come out of Uni a lefty and change back quite quickly, but if you stay labour-supporting for another 5 years you most likely will for life. Same the other way. This is why Corbyns lead in the 25-34 group is as important as the 18-24 - the 25-34 group are more likely to be consistent labour as long as the Labour party stays on the left.
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Jun 10, 2017 12:02
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Antti posted:72 percent turnout among 18-24 is absolutely mindboggling. I don't think everyone around the world has fully internalized that yet. There are countries where parliamentary elections struggle to hit 72 percent altogether, let alone among the 18-24 year olds. I couldn't believe it when I first read about it. The accepted wisdom for the last two three decades has been that the youth don't turn out and it's pointless to draw them out, because they just won't when push comes to shove. There is a whole lot of awful things that have been cemented into politics based on the assumption that if you gently caress over the youth they won't punish you for it at the polls so you can just keep doing it. Still doesn't change that they've jumped to a group who doesn't vote to one who suddenly turns out and matters.
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Jun 10, 2017 12:41
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Since data is fun, I looked at the full spreadsheet of election results, and worked out what kind of Labour to Tory swing next election we need to form a government/become the majority party. This is soley looking at swing to Labour needed to take Tory seats 1% swing: Takes 7 seats, leaving Labour on 269, Tories on 312 2% swing: Takes 13 seats, leaving Labour on 275, Tories on 304 Progressive coalition possible 3% swing: Takes 18 seats, leaving Labour on 280, Tories on 299 4% swing: Takes 25 seats, leaving Labour on 287, Tories on 292 5% swing: Takes 30 seats, leaving Labour on 292, Tories on 287 Labour Largest Party This is of course, discounting possible Tory loses/gains from either the Lib Dems or the SNP. But even then, Labour needs a 4% swing from the Tories at least to be the largest party, and a huge 9% swing (roughly same as this election) to get to 305 seats, about Cameron's 2010 level which had a stable coalition for 5 years. So, FPTP still isn't great for labour. Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Jun 10, 2017 |
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Jun 10, 2017 15:24
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https://imgur.com/a/E8IRA Donation Done. Congrats Sebzilla!
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Jun 10, 2017 16:45
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Gum posted:Ashcroft survey data suggests the defections from the Tories were actually pretty low and labour's success was due almost entirely to unlikely voters and eating some minor parties IIRC, each party got 80% of their 2015 vote, and both Labour and Tories had 10% of their 2015 vote defect to the other side.
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Jun 10, 2017 17:51
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It also gives leadership contenders in the Tory party to sort it out before themselves and get the bloody bits done behind closed doors before they have to go to the public.
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Jun 10, 2017 20:24
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Then the government will lose a vote of no confidence, and we'll get another election.
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Jun 10, 2017 20:25
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I still think 3-line whipping for Brexit was a mistake: He should have just whipped as normal, as the public don't really understand the distinction. But it's behind us now and the Labour party is united.
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Jun 10, 2017 20:29
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Gonzo McFee posted:Nah, it was crucial for Corbyn to be seen as pro Brexit. Otherwise we'd end up like the Lib Dems. Thats my point: I don't think the general public knew enough of the difference between "Corbyn whips for Brexit" and "Corbyn 3-line whips for brexit" for it to matter
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Jun 10, 2017 20:43
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For example, the government is currently trying to pass of legislation reforming universities, allowing fees to be raised higher than £9,000 a year, and lowering the bar to be granted university status. Current vice-chancellors didn't like it and said so, so the Lords rejected it and sent it back to the commons before the election. It looks unlikely it's getting passed now and will probably die.
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Jun 10, 2017 21:12
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CoolCab posted:I bet boundary reform will be pushed through, it just won't be as blatant. Not when it's cutting 50 MPs it's not: Like hell they'll give up there seats when there's no chance to win new ones back.
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Jun 10, 2017 21:39
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That's a 9% swing I think? Which, seat wise, would probably give Corbyn a majority.
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Jun 11, 2017 00:17
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Bobstar posted:What sort of odds were the bookies giving on a hung parliament in the last few weeks? I got £5 at 9/1 on a hung parliament about 2 weeks out? Nice earner.
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Jun 11, 2017 21:26
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coffeetable posted:presumably almost all the options will be one of the original 35 corbyn backers Not necessarily - several only back him them to widen to debate or to their own ends(Sadiq Khan)
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Jun 12, 2017 10:54
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Raeg posted:What's the story with that whole 2015 electoral fraud investigation thing anyway. All but one Tory MPs were not charged. The one who is was standing against Farage.
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Jun 12, 2017 15:49
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If we're still doing gang tags I'll take one if possible.
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Jun 13, 2017 09:48
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hyper from Pixie Sticks posted:Former PMs generally get the Knight of the Garter, which isn't a traditional knighthood in that it's the Queen's personal choice who gets it. To be fair, neither has Brown or Cameron yet. When one of them get offered it and Blair doesn't have one...
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Jun 13, 2017 14:35
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3% inflation is, fiiiine, as long as the pound doesn't drop any further we're good, loans will just devalue themselves
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Jun 13, 2017 22:01
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It's a good choice, given it displays "look, I forgave a MP who ran against me for leadership!" while Owen Smith is the least threatening of the out-crowd at the moment.
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Jun 14, 2017 19:42
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Junior G-man posted:Would there be any interest in a separate Brexit thread here in D&D? I'm sure some of the EuroPol I'd follow it, although I expect it to be flooded by American idiots if we don't chase them out quickly. Post on Monday to mark start of negotiations?
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Jun 15, 2017 19:31
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Darth Walrus posted:Does that also apply when it sounds like the entire outside of the building got turned into thermite? Not really: for one, even this fire probably wouldn't be hot enough to set off thermite: you need something like 2500C , and even huge fires don't get that hot.
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Jun 15, 2017 22:02
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JosefStalinator posted:If May fails and there's another election, what would the election length be this time? Is the exact length mandated by that fancy new law you guys have? Got to have at least 25 working days between the call and the ballot, so 5 weeks at least.
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Jun 17, 2017 11:56
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Total Meatlove posted:The important thing is that Portsmouth earns £2k more than Southampton on average and I'm happy with that Still not worth living in Portsmouth for that money.
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Jun 19, 2017 22:11
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| # ¿ May 2, 2024 00:56 |
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Regarde Aduck posted:In the south by the coast. So is Portsmouth and no-one is queuing up to live there.
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Jun 20, 2017 00:41
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