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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is:
This poll is closed.
Labour 907 49.92%
Theresa May Team (Conservative) 48 2.64%
Liberal Democrats 31 1.71%
UKIP 13 0.72%
Plaid Cymru 25 1.38%
Green 22 1.21%
Scottish Socialist Party 12 0.66%
Scottish Conservative Party 1 0.06%
Scottish National Party 59 3.25%
Some Kind of Irish Unionist 4 0.22%
Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian 3 0.17%
Some Kind of Irish Nationalist 36 1.98%
Misc. Far Left Trots 35 1.93%
Misc. Far Right Fash 8 0.44%
Monster Raving Loony 49 2.70%
Space Navies Party 39 2.15%
Independent / Single Issue 2 0.11%
Can't Vote 188 10.35%
Won't Vote 8 0.44%
Spoiled Ballot 15 0.83%
Pissflaps 312 17.17%
Total: 1817 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Nice.

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Someone tweeted that it was 82% and later corrected themselves.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Even if Corbyn loses I think he was the best choice we had and I'm glad he was Labour leader. Although I think he should try and find a successor in that case.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

SkySteak posted:

Didn't Yougov, at one point predict a victory for Scottish Independence? Optimism isn't worthless but I would be a bit more careful on basing hope upon a sole poll!
Yougov's two polls and their model (which are all pretty similar to each other) aren't actually the most exciting ones, those would be the two from Survation that suggest a Labour coalition.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Al-Saqr posted:

Can someone bring down all the hope in this room by pointing out the other times polls pointed to a tighter race only for labour to be humiliated?
That's why pollsters massively adjusted their models to be more favourable to the Conservatives this time.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

jabby posted:

For anyone still wondering why the Tories keep campaigning in safe Labour seats, the front page of the FT tomorrow has 'May Targets Opposition Heartlands', and a bunch of media outlets today have been speculating about how 'confident' the Tories are and how they 'must know something we don't'.

When your events consist entirely of invited activists in an old warehouse, you might as well take advantage of the free show of confidence by holding them somewhere you have no hope of winning.
The Conservative campaign has been very well run so far so I'm sure they're making the right decision in doing that.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Thanks Ants posted:

Have the Mail / Sun managed to run a single pro-Tory front page this cycle?

Edit: As in positive towards Tories rather than making GBS threads on Labour.
The Mail ran one talking up the energy price cap policy that they had denounced as insane Marxism when Ed proposed it. Also they ran a headline on how the Tory manifesto was amazing and was going to obliterate Labour (lol).

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

That's their raw data, but don't they them adjust it down to 50% in their final result?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

waffle posted:

https://twitter.com/JamesDMorris/status/872560750295961600
Looks like the YouGov poll change can probably be partly attributed to reassigning don't knows which didn't happen before. So perhaps it was the hope beforehand that was the lie after all
That's pretty blatant herding.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

CottonWolf posted:

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/872586205006888961
Survation are either going to look very good or very bad at 22:00 tomorrow.
Even if they're wildly wrong I respect them for following their methodology rather than fudging the numbers at the last minute to look more like other pollsters like Yougov did. Herded polls are truly worthless.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The really bad ones for Labour are assuming it will be the same as in 2015, the good ones are going with around 50%.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

We won't know until the exit poll at 10pm.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The Conservatives changed the system this year to make it so that more people would have to register and didn't even put out a token reminder to register on their Facebook page. That the system disenfranchises young people is very much a feature.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Something I've wondered about the fees pledge - it costs a lot of money on paper, but isn't the 'money' the government currently gets out of it toxic debt that won't be paid back in decades if at all?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

This is bad for Corbyn.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Extrapolating swings from ultra safe Labour seats doesn't seem valid.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

What if the Tories have made gains in the North but Labour have gained in other regions, like the polls suggested?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

There have been hugely different swings in different areas. Honestly I don't think we can call it yet.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

UrbicaMortis posted:

Someone at YouGov is going to get a raise and all the other pollsters are going to get fired lmao
Yougov deserve scorn for herding at the last minute imo. If the Exit poll is broadly accurate Survation probably did the best.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Latin Pheonix posted:

"Revenge of the youth"

Maybe this is the start of the next generation undoing 4 decades of ruin by the boomers?
If youth turnout is way up that's awesome regardless of the vote, it will force politicians to care more about young people in future.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

According to channel 4 the Tories aren't feeling confident about any of their 26 seats in London.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Serious props to anyone who campaigned in apparently hopeless seats like Battersea.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Hopefully the SNP can be wiped out next time.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

I imagine the underperforming in northern seats is why they've revised the Tory estimate up a bit?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

gently caress the SNP and Scotlab. I hope Corbyn sorts them out next time.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

Surely the tories have lost enough seats to destroy their majority by now?
They're getting them back in Scotland. Although were these random snipes on seats like Canterbury already in the exit poll?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Is there a local factor that explains the Canterbury result? Because it sounds insane.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Remember when people were talking up Nuttall as a huge threat to Labour? Lol. He was smashed by the Boston Labour candidate who himself was very soundly beaten by the Tory.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Cambridge went from a Lab majority of 600 to around 13,000. I did some leafletting and I was impressed by their materials, especially the leaflet that got delivered to young people

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Also turns out if you have policies that are good for young people they will vote for you.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

SgtSteel91 posted:

So who's the biggest corncob coming out of this?
May

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Corbyn has really revitalized the party in spite of all the MPs who didn't want to win. I am hopeful for the future, young voters are a good long term investment.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Anyone suggesting another Labour leader could've won this is stupid. Alternative Labour candidates were polling below Corbyn even before his huge surge over the past few weeks.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Mr. Flunchy posted:

Surely Corbz would rock another election with this wind behind him?
He should be able to kick some Tories out of Scotland at least.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Corbyn has transformed Labour from a party that was in a death spiral, conceding on every issue to a genuine opposition. His policies are great and they have energized young people. I think he can win the next election, which may be very soon.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

How stable would a DUP-Tory coalition/informal arrangement be? What kind of things could they block or demand?

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

The other reason it's a victory is that the Tories had 3 more years of majority in the bank if they did absolutely nothing. Those got deleted thanks to Corbyn.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Three leaders and two entirely needless lost votes in a year. The party of strength and stability everyone!

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Man the Tories are going to be on their third leader in the space of a year. And no-one else even wanted the job last time.

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

'Vote Tory, get DUP' should be a good attack line for the next election. Also they should be constantly asking Tory MPs whether they condemn awful poo poo said by their partners constantly for as long as the alliance holds.

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