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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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Did he burst those yokes. Jesus Tim can't you do anything right
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Jun 6, 2017 19:59
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For the record you can get estimated times each seat will declare here: http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_time.php Early results being singled out to watch to see if the YouGov model is lining up are Battersea at 1:00am (currently held with a 15.6% Tory majority but which YouGov are projecting will flip Labour) and at 2:00am Bury North (which the Tories hold with only 300 odd votes but no UKIP candidate is in the running and they got about 12% of the vote last time, YouGov projecting a Labour gain) and Thurrock (held by the Tories with only 500 odd votes but UKIP got 31.7% here in 2015, YouGov again projecting Labour gain). If those results don't go the way YouGov are projecting the model may be a bit off
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Jun 7, 2017 00:40
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Random question - does the party name on the ballot have to be the actual official name of the party? I ask because I assume it's set at registration time, when they were pushing the "Theresa May's Team" line really really hard, and having 40 million ballot papers with that on it would be hilarious given what's happened in the last month. You've got to register it as a description with the electoral commission - Looking at it this year the Tories added "The Conservative and Unionist Party" (which I guess they must have stopped using) "Conservatives" and "Scottish Conservative Party Candidate" The only thing labours added is "Aberdeen Labour, making it happen"...
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Jun 7, 2017 08:03
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goddamnedtwisto posted:I never realised they were predicting Thurrock going red, that completely obliterates the model for me because that place is Daily Star - The Constituency. Thurrock has been competitive for a while and tbh it might flip red, seems like the sitting Tory MP has just this week confirmed the closure of a local hospital with the land being sold on to property developers... There are weirder things in the YouGov model, I think the one that's got the most head scratching is the Tories losing Devon East to an independent who trailed the Tories by 22% in 2015
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Jun 7, 2017 08:27
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Jun 7, 2017 08:40
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Guavanaut posted:They can make a solemn affirmation instead of an oath if they choose, but that assumes it's the God part that the object to and not the Crown part. The affirmation still requires you to affirm loyalty to the Queen, which Sinn Fein will never do. There's also a deeper ideological issue in that Sinn Fein fundamentally contests Westminster's legitimacy in legislating for Northern Ireland, the assembly is seen to emanate from popular sovereignty through the good Friday referendum which is why they attend and participate, not so for Westminster. Then you have the fact that abstention is written into the party constitution and taking your seat is grounds for immediate expulsion from the party - the constitution would need to be rewritten which would require a general ard fheis with members voting to alter the constitution, an event that could very likely cause a split in the party as the decision to end abstention to the Dail did. Also SF only just floated the idea of actually participating in a coalition government in Ireland this year and had previously refused to endorse or participate in any government they where not the majority party in. Its just not going to happen
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Jun 7, 2017 13:22
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CptAwesome posted:Are there any seats that are 3 way marginals? Thurrock is a three way between the conservatives, labour and UKIP with less than a 1000 votes between them. Belfast South too between SDLP/DUP/Alliance (maybe SF)
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Jun 7, 2017 14:58
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Realistically if the results cut the way YouGov are projecting Labour just has to work out a deal with SNP and Libs, I'd imagine Plaid and the Greens would get left out in the cold dealwise with assumption they will back a Labour budget without any bones being thrown their way. I'm estimating about 6 SF seats which will bring the majority number down to 322, on a bad day NI will otherwise cut 10 Tory backing unionist, 1 independent (who's no fan of the Tories and has made it clear they will not vote in favour of a Corbyn government so possible abstention) and 1 SDLP (who would back Labour) - On a good day 8 Unionist, 2 SDLP, the same independent and 1 Lib aligned Alliance
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Jun 7, 2017 16:28
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I'm working at 10am so I'll make to 3 before sleeping and waking up to the Torypocalypse and day of people saying same auld shite
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Jun 7, 2017 19:51
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TheRat posted:From ICM person: I hate this man
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Jun 7, 2017 20:52
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Also drat now I can see tweets thanks
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Jun 7, 2017 20:53
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https://mobile.twitter.com/martinboon/status/872542710837784577 Right where does this fella live I'm gonna go round his gaff and rough him up a bit
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Jun 7, 2017 20:57
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Do a bit of manual unskewing
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Jun 7, 2017 20:58
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YouGov announces they made a mistake with their model cause a formula in an excel sheet was broken and it's actually a Tory landslide sorry about the confusion
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Jun 7, 2017 21:07
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I will still blame the tory voting olds even if the youth desert us
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Jun 7, 2017 21:41
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Gort posted:The Lib Dem candidate in Brighton has pulled out and urged her supporters to vote Green. I thought the lib dems weren't standing in Brighton?
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Jun 7, 2017 21:58
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hakimashou posted:Is IRC still actually popular in britain? yes every child uses it
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Jun 7, 2017 22:57
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Well technically HRMIRC after the Queen was given complete control of the internet in 1998
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Jun 7, 2017 23:00
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hakimashou posted:I'm gonna wear my nice British shoes tomorrow in solidarity with you guys on your special day. Jackboots must be pretty expensive
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Jun 7, 2017 23:55
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gently caress off DMs with red laces then?
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Jun 7, 2017 23:58
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Remember Nate Silver projected the Tories to get 270 something seats in 2015
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Jun 8, 2017 00:59
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No pressure
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Jun 8, 2017 10:16
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Help Im Alive posted:belfast south/sdlp to stop dup I too voted for the abortion haters cause I'd rather them than SF Also yes that's very normal
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Jun 8, 2017 13:03
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Rampant callaghanian socialism
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Jun 8, 2017 18:31
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Uh it was labour that pushed for individual registration in 2009
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Jun 8, 2017 20:54
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Wafflecop posted:Long time lurker (combat liberalism). Voted Labour where the current Labour MP won by under 500 votes last time. I think she'll hold it. 'Alifax
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Jun 8, 2017 21:15
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Torys + Unionists would probably still be a majority
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Jun 8, 2017 22:01
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Junior G-man posted:It'll not ever happen but LAB+SNP+LibDem Wouldne be a majority
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Jun 8, 2017 22:05
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It is finally our time to ruin the country
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Jun 8, 2017 22:05
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At last we shall have our vengeance for being denied a seat at the leaders debate
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Jun 8, 2017 22:05
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WeAreTheRomans posted:KKK could you remind me what the NI breakdown looks like again? I would put SF on 6 (taking two, one from the Ulster Unionists in Fermanagh and South Tyrone and one from the SDLP in South Down). Then you've got the DUP fighting to take another seat off the SDLP, hold one from an Alliance challenge and take one back from the UUP - So if East Belfast hold and the SDLP collapses in South Belfast then Unionists would be 10 seats - If they fail to capture South Belfast and lose Belfast East then Unionists 8 combined. Then you've got Sylvia Hermon as an independent who has said she will not vote Corbyn and probably one solid SDLP in Foyle who will back Corbyn
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Jun 8, 2017 22:09
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Trin Tragula posted:Is anyone out there doing an exit poll for Northern Ireland because this is now suddenly relevant No they dont poll us its too hard
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Jun 8, 2017 22:09
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ultrabindu posted:Could the DUP hold the balance of power and enter coalition with the Tories? They wouldn't enter coalition but they would drive a bargain for confidence. What with our government set to collapse at the end of the month there is A LOT the Tories can offer them
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Jun 8, 2017 22:23
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The DUP will push for full implementation of the armed forces covenant in Northern Ireland and a statue of limitations for members of the security forces to prevent prosecutions relating to Troubles related crimes Also Full Hard Brexit
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Jun 8, 2017 22:59
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Plenty of support in the Tories for all those positions
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Jun 8, 2017 23:00
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happyhippy posted:What are the chances SInn Fein will actually take their seats to join Corbyn to stall or stop Brexit? Or they can point at Tories + DUP and say "LOOK LOOK AT THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A BORDER POLL"
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Jun 8, 2017 23:01
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ruh oh
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Jun 8, 2017 23:04
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:gently caress me, what's up with the national vote share? i assume thats based on declared constituencies only
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Jun 8, 2017 23:21
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Pouring some cold water on the exit poll on the BBC there
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Jun 8, 2017 23:27
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 17:44 |
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serious gaylord posted:Amber rudd is in hiding and refusing to do interviews lol
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Jun 8, 2017 23:34
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