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OhFunny posted:Meh. The European markets are down around 1-2% atm. This time it could just be profit-taking. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:53 on Oct 11, 2018 |
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Oct 11, 2018 09:03
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Teal posted:Well since we live in a world where it's always going to keep going up, it's a sound strategy There is a point to make that the Fed rate while above where it was, still isn't really that especially high and the market may have still some life left in it especially if some data comes out that looks good for equities (ie low inflation, poor job numbers etc). It probably wouldn't be a long position at this point though.
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Oct 11, 2018 11:00
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SKULL.GIF posted:Markets recovering today so far I would say the most likely culprit would be rising fed rates finally snapping the coastal housing market. The only reason the stock market is positive is that consumer prices weren't as high as expected and everything is about the Fed at this point. If the trade war serious starts pushing inflation you may see some pretty large drops. Also, this was a clear preview of what will happen to the tech sector once rates reach their tipping point, it is going to get completely slammed. Everyone has been saying it for a while, but yeah I don't know why anyone would hold tech stocks in even in the mid-term after yesterday.
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Oct 11, 2018 15:21
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slippery doc posted:housing market in Seattle already starting to cool quite a bit Yeah, I think housing prices are going to have to take a hit if they are large-scale layoffs, and almost certainly you are going to see a secondary wave of unemployment in the service sector, especially on the West coast. As for buying a house, I guess it just depends if you can pay your mortgage/just balance transfer it indefinitely.
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Oct 11, 2018 15:40
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Lokar posted:sears is finally filing for bankruptcy They couldn't even make it to the next recession.
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Oct 15, 2018 06:25
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Yeah, the tech sector is probably going to get its comeuppance in the not too far off future. The last correction has leveled off, but it was sudden and especially hit tech stocks real hard. Also, bond yields are starting to level out which is usually a sign of a market transition. Also, fed rates aren't that far from their historical tipping points.
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Oct 17, 2018 10:57
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Somaen posted:are you sure? Obviously, they are trending downward, that said I have a hard time seeing this bull market last through 2019. That said, In the last recession, it hit its peak in mid-2007, after the Fed started to raise rates but still generally 6-8 months before the recession actually began. So if the yield curves progress as they are, we are still at least 6-8 months from that point. Granted, we never had fed rates this low for this long, and this recession is probably going to look a lot more like the .com crash which had a shorter lead up time than the 2008 recession. So basically are like around the first quarter of 2000: celebrating that Y2K didn't happen and Microsoft stock will go up forever. Also, the consensus seems to be this correction isn't over. Ironically enough there was a pretty bad correction in October 1999 as well. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:18 on Oct 18, 2018 |
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Oct 18, 2018 09:08
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Lote posted:Yes, but it’s so ambiguous it doesn’t mean anything. Technically the lowest 10 year yield was 1.5% back in like July 2012/2016. The 3 month rate has been above 1.5 since Jan 2018 so that means that there’s going to be a recession within 8 months with a range of now to 2.5 years from now. Not really helpful. It is a combination of data including rising fed rates, volatility in the S&P along with the 1/10y spread data that is looking a lot dicier this time. The spread back in 2016 was around .8 to 1%, it is already at .22% right now.
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Oct 18, 2018 18:35
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Lote posted:What you’re say is different from With yield curves it is more in the context of their relationship with each other, and what the market is demanding in that relationship. 10 Year Bonds and the Fed Rate, I don't know especially considering the market has been so use to zero fed rates for so long. This round has been an oddity. (Also the S&P has been bananas today. It seems like there is a real test of resistance levels.)
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Oct 18, 2018 20:17
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I mean...probably a little of both is true.
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Oct 19, 2018 21:15
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Anyway, the PRC had shift the value of the Yuan to a much more rapid and independent degree than the US. We can pile more tariffs on them and they can just let the Yuan drop lower (which also will open other markets). Also, a recession in the US isn't that far away (I think this is currently still a correction, a bad one but the bond data really isn't in place yet).
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Oct 29, 2018 22:12
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Skyl3lazer posted:Bonds are a symptom more than a cause, no? Granted inversion usually happened a bit before markets crashed but I assume the 'recession' still starts before the bond prices go weird Bond inversions usually happen when there is a loss of an appetite for short-term bonds, usually a sign of fear of incoming turmoil (better to lock in money in longer-term bonds.) The inversion usually happens a bit before or during the crash itself, and then recovers as appetite starts to return and the flight to safety subsides. Right now bond yields are quite flat signaling we are getting pretty close to the end of the cycle, but 2-10 year yields aren't negative yet. In the end, it may be a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the secondary market but ultimately companies are going to be using a lot of short-term debt if they are confident. That said there are a million and 1 theories on when actually the cycle repeats itself. My take is this is still likely a correction but will likely to continue to be negative until fear enters the market and then there will be an upswing. There is a bit of a weirdness going on due to the fact that while losses are adding up, there is still plenty signs of still buying (just like add the end of the today) so it has been particularly more "sloppy" than the last correction in February. (We will see how this works out.) Squalid posted:these policies though come with trade offs. When Chinese currency devalues it can boost their exports, but it also impairs the development of a domestic consumer economy. I don’t know what the best way forward is for China but trade war bs definitely isn’t good. That’s true regardless of the relative harm compared to other states. Granted, the Chinese are still trying to implement ISI essentially and are desperately trying to reduce imports to the minimum from pretty much every angle. The Chinese obviously didn't want this war, but they clearly prepared for it and will respond in kind. Also, the Chinese stock market is not nearly as important as the US stock market, the Chinese economy is still dominated by SOEs and systematic risk is quite low. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:30 on Oct 29, 2018 |
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Oct 29, 2018 23:08
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Doccykins posted:lmao they were +200 at 8am GMT hold on to your butts Yeah we will see if it peters out by the end of the day or if it is an actual shift. One thing if the market does hold out today, short sellers are going to probably be in bad if they can't start covering.
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Oct 30, 2018 15:21
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Xelkelvos posted:The US and Brazil rebuffing China will actually be something that the CCP probably didn't account for, and it does seem like some countries are getting wise to China's own politically backed machinations. the former is a big deal as the US and Brazil are #1 and #2 for soy beans and China's own demand for it has far outstripped their own production. This probably might mean scaling back its use as livestock feed or an attempt to make a workaround by using another country as a pass-through to buy the soy. The latter is pretty much speed bumps. Bolsonaro can make noise but Brazil is in a poor position especially considering that a global recession probably is going to happen (maybe not today but it isn't that far off). I mean what is Brazil going to be trading at this point if it cuts off Soybeans as commodity prices fall? He is talking smack but everyone knows Brazil needs to continue exporting or otherwise they are going to be sitting on a couple million tons of soybeans with no one to buy them.
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Oct 30, 2018 15:54
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Larry Parrish posted:amazing The ultimate result of Iranian sanctions wasn't actually cutting them off but picking and choosing which countries would be allowed by the US to buy their oil. (ie Hegemony)
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Nov 2, 2018 13:34
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Dow up about 1% today...is it a pump and dump in preparation for a bunch of radical leftist extremists to be voted in who end up doing nothing? The wealthy know there the Democrats won't take the Senate so they are ramping up for the last bull market for this cycle.
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Nov 6, 2018 11:13
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Yeah, GE is a weak link in the chain and they are probably going to have to liquidate quite a bit to stay afloat. I think the real question isn’t that there will be a recession, almost all the signals are pointing in that direction, but how much damage is actually going to be done before the corporate welfare starts. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 15:20 on Nov 28, 2018 |
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Nov 28, 2018 14:15
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It is also possible there may be a late market rally in order to full collapse in early 2019. It is likely there will be at least a short-term rally Wednesday-Thursday since the rate increase is priced in and the Fed will probably be moderately dovish and talk about headwinds in 2019.
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Dec 18, 2018 21:03
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Yeah it was quite a bit more Hawkish than people expected, but Powell was always a bit more Hawkish than Yellen.
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Dec 19, 2018 20:07
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Eh, humans are still there to set parameters. Anyway, as I assume everyone knows, the Fed is pretty much the only thing that matters because cheap credit is the only thing keeping the appearance of an economy going. At the end of the day, Powell is neither really that Dovish/Hawkish but the difference is he is clearly more Hawkish than Yellen and more so Bernake (would have halted rates months ago.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Dec 19, 2018 |
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Dec 19, 2018 20:26
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Epic High Five posted:everything that is good for the people and the world makes number go down, everything that is most base and evil and will destroy us all make it go up The average person is hosed wether the numbers go up or down.
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Dec 19, 2018 20:32
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:lmao if they use this to get rid of the volcker rule The administration is going to be pretty desperate considering Powell's comments. Also the DOW is swinging 100 points or so based depending on Powell's every sentence. Capitalism is fragile.
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Dec 19, 2018 20:53
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There is going to be so much poo poo thrown at Powell once he leaves that podium, holy hell. It looks like a full blown crash, 500 points (700 shift today). Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Dec 19, 2018 |
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Dec 19, 2018 21:04
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Donny is probably going to call for Powell's execution.
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Dec 19, 2018 21:16
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bob dobbs is dead posted:you can get funding easy from shenzhen because the chinese have a turbofucked debt bubble, not that we don't The difference is that the PRC has a government and central bank that will try to compensate for this, we don't.
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Dec 21, 2018 02:49
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There is a reason 90% of traders lose money, technical analysis is only going to tell you that much and it isn't going to be able to really predict the bottom of a crash when a trend just bash through support levels like they are made of toilet paper. The market and a large part of the economy is simply based off of fed rates and assets, that is it and a technical analysis can't predict that. It is also why West coast cities are going to probably be hit pretty hard since they were more depended on the VC bubble of the 2010s coupled with a ridiculous housing bubble.
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Dec 23, 2018 19:52
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Yeah, humans, especially when they are dire/stressful circumstances usually go for something that offers them some type of release. The entire issue is that people are being squeezed into oblivion in the first place. Also, yeah HFCS is highly subsidized etc.
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Dec 23, 2018 22:26
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vandalism posted:Nah, I'm not. I wish he would quit tweeting and do his loving job. Our entire government and corporate system (oxymoron, branches of the same organization) is hosed beyond belief. I just don't want it to gently caress me. Yeah, but it is, and it is going to be really specular for the next 2 years at least.
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Dec 26, 2018 04:16
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SKULL.GIF posted:the chances of the market crashing over 50% is pretty low even with the idiots in charge right now, so yeah keep the retirement account, don't decline it. And if you're younger than 35 you ll likely have lived through two or three more major recessions by the time you're exercising your retirement so this one probably won't be that big of a deal in the long picture so go ahead and contribute the match max to your 401. I would say that the chances of 50% + crash are quite high, he should take the cash and put it whatever is the most stable option and the maybe think about shifting it around in 12 months. The latest bump up really looks like a bull trap considering the latest declines. It may even last a bit but that doesn’t mean this is a healthy market. This thread has the general right idea. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 04:33 on Dec 27, 2018 |
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Dec 27, 2018 04:30
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Grand Theft Autobot posted:It's completely absurd that loans which are fully guaranteed and non-dischargeable have interest rates this high. Some loan rates are higher than ever that now due to higher fed rates (7%+). (Also paying off all your student loans actually lowers your credit rating.) America is a scam country, there are so many other better places to live.
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Dec 27, 2018 22:33
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Grand Theft Autobot posted:So how long do your wages get garnished? What happens if 15% of your wages isn't enough to cover the interest on your loans? Supposedly they are "dischargable" due to public service after 10 years, but pretty much denied every application was denied recently (26 out of 36,000 applications were forgiven...yeah that is right). You can stuck paying them forever until you are disabled or dead. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/418761-only-26-people-approved-student-loan-forgiveness-out-of-the-36000
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Dec 27, 2018 22:42
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mastershakeman posted:I'm fairly sure garnishment is capped at 25% of income so if you just default on loans + taxes + child support you can "win" I think at best you get payments being deferred while your interest continues to rack up and there is no way to get around taxes. Basically you are stuck with probably 40-50% of your income being sucked out unless you flee to another country and suffers the evils of functioning infrastructure and health care.
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Dec 27, 2018 23:01
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Ruzihm posted:These 3 leading economic indicators show no recession is coming - https://on.mktw.net/2R2TEhH number only up!!!!!! I like that he points to a 15-19 basis points from 2 to 10 year bonds inverting as a good thing...that is a sign we are on the precipice.
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Jan 22, 2019 02:21
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Rex-Goliath posted:i know this has been said a billion times but it’s cool that the president is gaslighting the entire country We will see what happens when the DOW reaches 25,500-25,600, the pretty much the area the market has faced heavy resistance since October. As far as "good news", the Fed has paused rate increases for now, and the government is up and running for at least the next week. Besides a miraculous breakthrough with China (I doubt this looking at Huawei), there isn't that much else out there on the horizon. Oh yeah, unemployment has been hovering around the same area it was in August, and then there are bond yields etc. Also, it seems like home sales are also in the toilet. I mean you can't predict the future but almost every major signal is blinking at this point. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Jan 31, 2019 |
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Jan 31, 2019 01:42
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SKULL.GIF posted:I'm still standing by Brexit being what sets off this powder keg. Trump can intimidate the Fed into cooperating but there's only so long they can keep up a facade. The Brexit negotiations across the pond aren't going well at all and there's a chance of Raw Brexit in which case I doubt Brexit itself will do it, if anything it will probably be a relatively random inflection point like back in October. Also, the recession has a lot less to do with Donald himself or the trade war and far more to do with VC pumping a tech bubble and coastal housing markets.
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Jan 31, 2019 03:01
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etalian posted:It's why things like the estate tax and FDR style high tax brackets a required way to keep this under control. It is also why you need the Soviet Union or something comparable do it.
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Feb 5, 2019 02:47
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This is really looking like a bull trap atm.
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Feb 7, 2019 17:35
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Skyl3lazer posted:Lol Trump wants to start putting tariffs on India, as well as passing a law against OPEC. U do u buddy. India was suppose to be our counterweight to China and the Saudis were once our best buds.
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Feb 8, 2019 18:38
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bob dobbs is dead posted:Japanese zoning change, which kicked off the main wave of soulless concrete apartments, was directly after the crash of the real estate bubble there Yeah, Moscow's suburbs are starting to make even Soviet construction look a bit puny, think 25-30 story walls of buildings. They are extremely unpopular but honest I don't know what the alternative would be considering.
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Feb 18, 2019 15:27
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readingatwork posted:Maybe make large-scale apartments... that don't look like dogshit??? They are usually made by private developers and aimed at people who pretty much can't afford a place in the city. Personally, I think Stalinist era buildings are much better looking, but they were made 70 years ago. I would also at least the legacy of the Soviet period (the metro system especially) makes it livable although some of the suburbs are truly disasters of planning if there isn't a metro line or at least an electric commuter train line. Trekhgorka makes me scratch my head especially, someone demented planned that area, 30-40 huge buildings feed into a single 2 lane road and there is no other public transportation expect minibusses.
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Feb 18, 2019 16:33
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