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quote:"It was an Iranian missile, launched by Hezbollah, from territory occupied by the Houthis in Yemen," al-Jubeir told CNN. Jane's thinks they're probably pre-war stock modified by the Yemenis themselves http://www.janes.com/images/assets/330/72330/Yemeni_rebels_enhance_ballistic_missile_campaign.pdf quote:The Burkan-2 appears to use a new type of warhead section that is locally fabricated. Both Iran
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Nov 6, 2017 22:51
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Mixodorian posted:E: Also, I was supposed to make an Iran thread a while back but then I got depressed and stopped visiting this site for a while. If anyone has any ME politics related questions they wanna refer to old Iranian people or younger ones living in Tehran LMK. I also have Iranian in-laws , but they don't really talk (to me) about Iran or the middle east except to moan about family drama and the ownership of the carpet factory (yep...) Oh, and that Arabs are uncivilised camel herders who will surely learn their rightful place and did you know the whole Middle East used to be part of the glorious Persian Empire. lol
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Nov 7, 2017 16:49
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Mixodorian posted:and the fact that their country is a theocratic state based on a religion their Persian ancestors (which they're extremely proud of) were brutally forced onto. I think this is a point that is frequently missed, by American commentators at least - non religious Iranians can be if anything more nationalist and revanchist than their religious compatriots. mediadave fucked around with this message at 17:17 on Nov 7, 2017 |
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Nov 7, 2017 17:09
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Grouchio posted:I do wish that there'd be a zoroastrian cultural revival in Iran one of these days...if not a fullblown revivalism. I doubt that will happen, but I did read an interesting book 'Drinking Arak Off an Ayatollah’s Beard' https://www.amazon.com/Drinking-Arak-Off-Ayatollah%C2%92s-Beard/dp/0306818841 which was basically all about the strongly rooted pre-Isamic culture and literature* in Iran, particularly amongst young people. The Islamic revolution hasn't killed it off, and if anything it's growing stronger. Of course, even if people wear a bull's head symbol and jump through fires it doesn't mean they'll abandon Shia Islam. (* EDIT: Of course the Shanameh isn't actually pre-Islamic, written in 11th century, but it's about Pre-Islamic Persia and its continued popularity solidifies those Pre Islamic Kings and myths as a Golden Age) mediadave fucked around with this message at 14:25 on Nov 8, 2017 |
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Nov 8, 2017 14:21
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Of course the West shouldn't (and isn't going to) 'give' the Middle East to Iran....but like it or not, Iran's influence and political and military power in the Middle east is only going to rise. They're a large, young, vibrant, ambitious nation with a relatively diversified economy and a population twice that of the Arab gulf states.
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Nov 9, 2017 14:30
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cochise posted:War. https://twitter.com/SulomeAnderson/status/928424381876985856
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Nov 9, 2017 16:05
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MiddleOne posted:Can someone educate me on how Saudi Arabia going to war with Lebanon would even work logistically? As I'm looking on the world map I'm gradually realizing I know literally nothing about Jordan but this is still very confusing to me. Jordan will definitely want to stay out of anything, but Saudi could probably bully them into allowing transit and basing if they really feel strongly and want to cash in more of their dwindling chips.
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Nov 9, 2017 16:23
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:If that was literally the only reason they made him resign and imprisoned him... Wasn't the reason for the Qatar blockade pretty much a tweet praising Iran?
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Nov 10, 2017 13:08
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CrazyLoon posted:
The equivalent figure to Archduke Franz Ferdinand would be Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman
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Nov 13, 2017 19:44
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I don't know how significant the 'Elaph' newspaper in Saudi Arabia is, but well, Israel 's chief of staff has had an interview with it, which feels a significant step in the coming out of the Israeli-Saudi alliance. http://elaph.com/Web/News/2017/11/1177142.html (via google translate) quote:In this matter there is complete agreement between us and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which was never one of our enemies or fought or fought, and I think there is a complete consensus between us and them regarding the Iranian axis, I was at the meeting of the chiefs of staff in Washington and when I heard what the Saudi representative found It is exactly identical to what I think about Iran and the need to confront it in the region and the need to stop its expansionist programs.
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Nov 16, 2017 18:57
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Inevitable outcome inevitably happens: Long Divided, Iran Unites Against Trump and Saudis in a Nationalist Fervor https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/world/middleeast/iran-nationalism-saudi-arabia-donald-trump.html quote:In short, it appears that Mr. Trump and the Saudis have helped the government achieve what years of repression could never accomplish: widespread public support for the hard-line view that the United States and Riyadh cannot be trusted and that Iran is now a strong and capable state capable of staring down its enemies.
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Nov 27, 2017 14:18
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I think at this point there are 4 or perhaps 5 grades of great power - The first grade is of course the US, which still at this point has a singular amount of power, wether measured economically, militarily or soft power. The second grade is China, which has at this point outstripped the rest of the pack and is busy buying influence across the Third world. It will be able to directly rival the US at some point soon, but isn't there yet. The third grade is also filled by a single country, Russia, which maintains this level for now by size, swagger and ambition. The fourth grade contains the UK, France, Germany and Japan. Their economic, military and soft power varies, but taken together they are all really on a par. Any of these could overtake Russia if they really were willing to make the effort and put in the money, but true superpower status is lost. The fifth grade is powerful and ambitious regional powers, particularly India (which will probably leapfrog the others soonish), but perhaps contains Iran, Turkey etc.
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Dec 1, 2017 13:20
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This is like when the allies spent two years persuading Romania to come in on their side in the First World War, and as soon as Romania finally did Germany invaded and smashed Romania in about a week.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:23
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Haystack posted:Ok, taking a step back, will this change the overall strategic situation with Yemen? The blockade is still ongoing an unchallanged, and I don't see that changing just because the Houthis won an internal fight. As dramatic as the last few days were, it seems like the big picture is unchanged. I guess the Houthis have shored up their position, but they're still weaker than before seeing as they've lost a significant ally and the legitimacy and contacts he brought to the table. I'm always surprised though the under-reporting of Yemen, compared to Syria. I don't just mean from the mainstream press (but that too) - but with Syria we had armchair generals galore constantly map-making and pontificating. We don't seem to have any of that in Yemen.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:52
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Here we go https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/938073972595478529
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Dec 5, 2017 17:03
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It'll be interesting how it plays in Saudi Arabia, given our discussion.
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Dec 5, 2017 17:55
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Cat Mattress posted:America's inept foreign policy managed to create a Turkey-Iran axis and an Israel-KSA axis. And Saudi Arabia's inept bullying has pushed Qatar in the arms of Iran. I don't think I would put Egypt in the Saudi block on this. The Egyptian Generals have been very friendly towards Iran in the recent past, to the extent of verbally (and possibly materially) supporting the Assad regime.
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Dec 14, 2017 12:51
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Ardennes posted:Jordan more recently has been trying to find a "middle-course" ... Jordan has always, as a matter of policy, tried to find the middle course. However they're small, poor, weak, never got any oil, and the Hashemites have one by one lost the territories that gave them any claim to leadership in the Muslim World, so they are somewhat at the mercy of their bigger buddies.
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Dec 14, 2017 17:45
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Another article about the nationalist push in Iran: The genesis of a new Iranian nationalism https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/iran-new-nationalism-religion-politics-trump-saudi-isis.html quote:Among the most prominent examples of this turn to nationalism is the multimillion-dollar Sacred Defense Garden and Museum in northern Tehran, which opened in late 2012. One of the main exhibits displays large maps that show the Persian Empire ruling swaths of Asia over 3,000 years ago. It juxtaposes this map against shrinking Iranian territory throughout the centuries. Iran’s size today is minuscule in comparison with the glorified empire painted on the wall. The message of the museum is clear: Past monarchs ceded territory, thinking more about their own pockets than the nation. It was only the Islamic Republic that defended Iran’s borders, and by extension, its dignity as an ancient civilization.
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Dec 16, 2017 12:55
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Apparently Saif Gaddafi is going to run for the Libyan presidency in next year's elections. http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/gadaffis-son-saif-al-islam-run-libyan-presidency-518043043 mediadave fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Dec 18, 2017 |
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Dec 18, 2017 15:28
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An opinion piece on Saudi Arabia trying to pressure Jordan: How Saudi tried to bully Jordan and failed http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-bully-jordan-failed-171218103430867.html quote:The presumed tripartite Saudi message was this: Amman and Ramallah should lighten up their criticisms of Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital; not join the Organization of Islamic Cooperation emergency summit that convened in Turkey last week; and, support Saudi Arabia's desire to promote an expected Israel-Palestine "peace plan" that is being developed by the White House. It's a short opinion piece in Al Jazeera - so definitely not unbiased, but interesting that this is now definitely the 'narrative' being put out.
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Dec 19, 2017 13:32
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Merry Christmas! As gift to the thread I bring an NY Times article about Saudi Arabia loving up royally. Why Saad Hariri Had That Strange Sojourn in Saudi Arabia https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/24/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-saad-hariri-mohammed-bin-salman-lebanon.html quote:BEIRUT, Lebanon — Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri, was summoned at 8:30 a.m. to the Saudi royal offices — unseemly early, by the kingdom’s standards — on the second day of a visit that was already far from what he had expected. quote:Lebanese officials described the long hours between the arrival and the resignation as a “black box.” They said they were reluctant to press Mr. Hariri for details. When asked, one of them said, Mr. Hariri just looked down at the table and said it was worse than they knew. quote:Meanwhile, the Saudi prince, apparently undaunted by international concerns, summoned yet another leader, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and issued instructions on Palestinian politics. Officials differ on what Mr. Abbas was told in Riyadh. But Lebanese officials were alarmed. They dispatched General Ibrahim and a Palestinian envoy to Amman, Jordan, to debrief Mr. Abbas, three senior Lebanese officials said. mediadave fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Dec 26, 2017 |
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Dec 26, 2017 00:38
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Interesting if true: Tehran Police to End Arrests for Breaching ‘Islamic Values’ https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/tehran-police-to-end-arrests-for-breaching-islamic-values-1514401780?__twitter_impression=true
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Dec 28, 2017 13:38
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Brother Friendship posted:Yemen stuff Thanks for this update, good information on the situation in Yemen seems hard to come by.
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Dec 30, 2017 01:09
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There are protests spreading in Iran, seems primarily economic but with some political chanting starting. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42512946 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/29/iranian-police-disperse-anti-government-protests I'd be very surprised if these led to anything significant, but we'll see. Revolutionary Guard may take them as reason to clamp down harder.
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Dec 30, 2017 01:18
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https://twitter.com/daoudkuttab/status/947441988252721152
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Dec 31, 2017 13:44
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very interesting and informative thread on Iran protests: https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/947974851129683969
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Jan 2, 2018 16:25
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Sinteres posted:If there's anyone who understands the downside of creating protest martyrs, it should be the leaders of Iran. I expect there will be a successful crackdown, and protesters will die, but that they'll take more efforts to avoid mass death than some of the worst case scenarios people are expecting--this isn't Syria, where the government can paint the opposition as posing a genocidal threat to a core constituency if they come to power. IRGC on the ground may see things differently though, who knows. A common trope of the Syrian civil war is Iranian IRGC officers (allegedly) being shocked and disappointed at the stupid thuggishness of the Syrian regime forces. We'll see how they operate in their own country though, if it ever comes to that (I doubt it will).
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Jan 2, 2018 18:40
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Sinteres posted:While I think some level of SAA success against the rebels in Idlib isn't terribly surprising, the amount of progress they've continued to make in the last couple days has been pretty crazy, suggesting there's been a pretty massive rebel collapse. If the rebels aren't planning a counterattack pretty soon, it looks like a big chunk of eastern Idlib is going to be cut off entirely before too long, though obviously the length of this salient does mean the SAA has a lot of exposed territory to guard which can be attacked from both sides, so they risk envelopment themselves if they do overextend themselves. Really doesn't look at the moment like anything is going to stop the SAA linking up with Aleppo 
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Jan 9, 2018 14:38
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Seems like everything is going great in 'government' controlled Yemen: https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/957611563028025345 https://twitter.com/Dr_E_Kendall/status/957558420831375366 https://twitter.com/RashaJarhum/status/957569567949246464
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Jan 28, 2018 19:18
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/Alladin_Al/status/958109940454961153?s=17 Welp... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42877851 quote:Southern Yemeni separatists have surrounded the presidential palace in the city of Aden following clashes with previously allied government forces.
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Jan 30, 2018 20:16
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quote:As it is now, Iran can use thousands of centrifuges and enrich uranium, albeit to levels far short of weapons-grade material. Under 123 agreements, foreign countries can buy U.S. nuclear technology and the nuclear know-how that comes with it if they agree not to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium. Both can be used for nuclear weapons fuel. This is bullshit though. Iran has limitations on its nuclear development that no other country has. If those other countries voluntarily signed deals for American nuclear technology where they voluntarily agreed not to enrich, well, buyer beware.
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Feb 27, 2018 14:10
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https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/971399390618378241
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Mar 7, 2018 17:09
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https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/980897328491122689?s=19
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Apr 3, 2018 08:26
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BTW Volkerball (and others I guess), how do you think Sadr winning will go down in America/ the US bipartisan foreign policy establishment? I can't imagine many will be happy that the most effective Iraqi resistance leader will be either prime minister or the dominant political force in Iraq, even if he will (probably) reduce Iran's influence.
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May 14, 2018 11:36
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https://twitter.com/Ali_Kourani/status/1004850086084579328 https://twitter.com/uwu70/status/1004648431607009280
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Jun 8, 2018 13:24
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Still in the fog of war / fog of bullshitting pro-Assad twitter accounts, but it's certainly looking like the Southern Rebels are collapsing. https://twitter.com/Bosni94/status/1012384510829367296 https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/1012674720683253761 https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1012650562356211712 https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1012652836616921088
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Jun 29, 2018 18:14
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Volkerball posted:Truth is if the west was looking to influence the aftermath of a hypothetical Iranian revolution, it'd most likely be by backing Reza Pahlavi as the figurehead of what would be framed as the first steps towards a new secular democracy. Ahahahaahahahahaa
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Jul 3, 2018 10:50
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Squalid posted:I'm not sure this is a good comparison, as the those Yemeni missiles were probably launched by professional members of the Yemeni army, probably the same personnel trained to use ballistic missiles before the war. As Yemen's conflict has progressed and pay has run short, the professionalism has declined, but I'm pretty sure they still have regular formations to handle this kind of stuff. Yeah, 'The Houthis' includes what remains of the pre-2014 Yemen Army.
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Sep 7, 2018 13:08
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What's going on here? Whose they? I've lost track of the situation in Libya
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Feb 4, 2019 18:38
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