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BeerSheetsBrownhat posted:No one deserves to win in a week 17 league.  Welcome back Fantasy Sports Fans, it's 2018. It's officially time to  Free League Hosting Services
Spoeank posted:Here's an updated twitter list for fantasy: Varg posted:Footballguys just emailed out an entire list of who to follow on twitter for every team's fantasy purposes.. I might actually pay attention to twitter now. I put it into an excel file in case anyone who's not subscribed to their mailings is interested. BeerGod feel free to add this to the OP too if you want Podcasts
 Introduction Fantasy Football is the ancient art of nerds pouring over statistics in the hopes of predicting how infinitely more athletic and successful men will perform over the course of a professional football game. In recent history it has become a billion dollar industry while infusing itself into the collective psyche of the NFL. Countless podcasts, articles, websites, and every other source under the sun have sprung up in support of what is essentially glorified socialized gambling. There's even a television show about a league. Fantasy Football is basically Dungeons & Dragons for The leagues themselves vary from friendly to insane, including at least one where the loser gets a tattoo chosen by the winner. Other leagues have pots worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, or byzantine rules about relegation, delegation, salary caps, and every other statistic under the sun. We are collectively insane, and we can't get enough. Fantasy Football itself is a lot of fun. Not only do you get to make a game out of watching football, but it also forces you to learn about the sport as a whole. I would never have known (or cared) that last year Darren McFadden was struggling with the Raider's transition from a power blocking scheme to a zone block until he became my first round draft pick and started costing me games. It makes you a better fan when you know all the players on the field. Dirt Worshipper said it best: Dirt Worshipper posted:Before I played fantasy I despised it. We all know the obnoxious guy at the sports bar in the Brady jersey, running in between TV’s screaming ”Throw Jennings the ball!”. They disagree fundamentally with the lessons our fathers taught us about football: You root for your home team, through good years and bad. The bad years are meant to be borne with grim fidelity, the good years are our reward. Fantasy was just wrong. The Basics A league consists of several owners (typically 12), one of whom is the commissioner who manages the league. At the beginning of the season each owner drafts a roster of players. Rosters are typically fifteen players and consist of starters and a bench of reserve players to replace starters who are injured or on bye weeks. A typical starting lineup that will mirror NFL positions and consist of 1 Quarterback (QB), 2 Running Backs (RB), 3 Wide Receivers (WR), 1 Tight End (TE), a Place Kicker (PK), and a Team Defense/Special Teams (DST). Each week your players will score points for your team according to their performance. Scoring can be very simple or incredibly complicated depending on the league, but many leagues use a standard scoring system where passing provides 1 point per 25 yards, 4 points per passing touchdown, and -1 point per interception and receiving and rushing gain 1 point per 10 yards, 6 points per receiving/rushing touchdown. Field goals are typically worth 3 points, and team defense scoring depends on a number of factors including sacks, interceptions, points allowed, defensive touchdowns, etc. Many leagues will use different scoring systems depending on the preferences of the players. One significant difference is PPR, or Points Per Reception, where wide receiver are awarded a set number of points (typically 0.5 or 1) for every reception. The league season will go for a set number of weeks during the regular NFL season. Typically the last two to four weeks of the regular season are reserved for the playoffs, and most leagues end on the sixteenth week because many NFL teams will sit their star players in Week 17 if the outcome doesn't matter. Variations There are many roster variations that different leagues will use. Many leagues use a flex position where different positions can fit into a slot. The most common form of flex position replaces the third WR position in the standard lineup above with a WR/RB/TE flex position. That means that any Wide Receiver, Running Back, or Tight End player could be used in that slot. Leagues where that flex position allows a QB are typically called "2 QB leagues" because quarterbacks typically score far more points that other players. Other leagues utilize IDP or Individual Defensive Players instead of Team Defenses. IDP players score points for tackles, sacks, interceptions, touchdowns, etc. Many leagues are several years old and include rules to provide continuity between seasons. In contrast to a redraft league where every player is drafted at the start of each season some leagues use keepers where team owners are allowed to keep a set number of players per year. Other leagues are dynasty leagues where the entire roster is kept from year to year. Typically dynasty leagues use much deeper benches and include a rookie draft. The Draft Every league starts with a draft, where team owner pick their players. There are two major types of draft; the snake draft and the auction draft. A snake draft is where every owner receives a draft position and then picks a player in order for a number of rounds equal to the roster size. It's called a snake draft because the order "snakes" back and forth each round. In other words the owner who picked last in the first round will pick first in the second. Auction drafts are where each team owner has a set budget and they bid for each player until everyone's roster has been filled. There are numerous drafting strategies out there, but ultimately the goal of any draft is to get the maximum amount of value for your players. Trades and the Waiver Wire While drafting is essential, the most successful teams typically win by taking advantage of the waiver wire and trades. Trading is precisely what it sounds like; players offer each other trades that are accepted or rejected. Many leagues incorporate an approval process to prevent collusion where two players will deliberately stack one team and then split the winnings; there is no universe where Adrian Peterson is worth Mark Sanchez. Depending on the league trading may either be nonexistent or commonplace. Many leagues will end trading several weeks before the playoffs begin. The NFL has hundreds of players and most of them will not be on a team roster. As players are injured or fall out of favor team owners will be forced to pick up free agents to replace them. To do this they use the waiver wire. Each week individual players are locked the moment their team starts their game. For the duration of this "waiver period" owners who wish to claim a free agent submit a "waiver claim." Owners who wish to make more than one waiver claim must indicate the priority of their claims. At the end of the waiver period (typically a day or two after the beginning of the new week) the league software checks the standings of the teams. Going in reverse order (worst standing to highest) the teams get their highest priority claim. If multiple teams have submitted waiver claims for the same player it will go the team with the lowest standing, and the other teams will get their lower priority claims. After the waiver period has ended every player is available to be claimed immediately. The waiver wire is extremely important. Alfred Morris, the 5th ranked running back of 2012, was a free agent in most leagues until the first week. Many owners use the waiver wire to "stream" defenses and other players based on that week's match.  Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Every year I put together a list of general suggestions for draft strategies, and the community provided some wonderful insight and updates. Now that the NFL draft is over and fantasy football season has started I thought it would be appropriate to revisit those ideas and put together some new thoughts and suggestions. Consider this a living document, and let me know what you think! Teemu Pokemon posted:If it's a 1 keeper league, the goal should just be to keep the best ADP bargain, or a top end stud like Brown or Johnson if you have one, and then just treat the draft and subsequent rankings as a redraft. Don't reach on young guys because it's a "keeper league" because it's not. Spoeank posted:DON'T 👏 DRAFT 👏 TIGHT 👏 ENDS 👏 Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Apr 27, 2019 |
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Apr 29, 2018 01:15
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Sataere posted:I think you are missing a pretty fantastic fantasy resource. Write up a blurb then.
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Apr 29, 2018 05:43
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Tiptoes posted:Is it too early for hot takes? There's a pretty strong correlation between RB draft round and their rookie performance. First round RBs have a really good history. Using half PPR: Leonard Fournette (2017): RB8 Christian McCaffrey (2017): RB11 Ezekiel Elliott (2016): RB2 Todd Gurley (2015): RB7 Melvin Gordon (2015): RB50 Trent Richardson (2012): RB2 Doug Martin (2012): RB8 David Wilson (2012): RBLOL Mark Ingram (2011): RB40 It seems like at least recently there is a trend. Given the limited lifespan of RBs teams are willing to draft early and then run them into the ground.
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Apr 29, 2018 13:14
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The Zack posted:Trent Richardson was RB2 that year?!?! Yeah. There's a reason he was a first round pick in fantasy drafts the following year.
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Apr 29, 2018 16:07
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Fansy posted:My keeper league currently keeps trades in an excel spreadsheet, and chats via SMS. It's not ideal. At the very least use Google Drive since you can all collaborate there. That and a Slack channel would work.
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Apr 30, 2018 19:43
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And now the season can begin.
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May 1, 2018 05:56
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Silly Burrito posted:A league owner wants to have a barbecue at a park in a couple of weeks to let the owners get to know each other. I suggested that we have some sort of competition to determine the draft order. Games of HORSE, maybe some embarrassing sack races, something like that. Anyone else do something like this for draft order? We made a spinner that was a lot of fun. Depending on how athletic folks are a mini combine could be fun. On the opposite side of the spectrum do an eating contest.
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May 4, 2018 02:46
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You can live after 12 shots. I don't recommend it. But you can live.
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May 4, 2018 04:19
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Spoeank posted:Just read an article saying to devalue David Johnson using statistical analysis based on team w-l record. Forward it to everyone.
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May 5, 2018 20:18
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Spoeank posted:https://twitter.com/DFF_Shane/status/992796488282632193 This is pretty bad... quote:It’s certainly not egregious to think that DJ can catch lightning in a bottle and finish as the overall RB1 but on average I tend to think that he will finish right outside the first tier of the draft(RB5-6). So you're drafting a player who's floor is the upper half of RB1 and who's ceiling is 2016... and you're saying I shouldn't draft him first overall?  Someone please give me the R^2 value of this chart. quote:McCoy has had several top 10 finishes as a play caller, granted those teams featured two future Hall of Famers in Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning. McCoy has often been a proponent for a backfield committee, and he may not be as innovative when it comes to crafting a large volume of plays designed to get DJ the ball on plays that favor his skill set. In 2017 McCoy took over as the offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos and failed to stay employed through Thanksgiving. Similarly, this year McCoy will take over an offense void of talent outside David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. I have no idea what he's saying here. He's a top 10 finisher, he loves a backfield, he sucked in Denver, he has two good players. So... expect what exactly?  Probably the best piece of information in the article; arguing that the line is lovely and injury prone and backing it up with real numbers. quote:The right chart above is a breakdown 2018 NFL strength of schedule from Sharp Football Analysis. If you are unfamiliar with this site or how SoS should be measured then be sure to check out this link for an explanation from Warren Sharp. Essentially, the rankings are based on current roster composition, the schedule itself, and current Vegas odds. Again, a common theme here is that Arizona is near the bottom of the pack. Anyone arguing anything based on Strength of Schedule in May should be mocked. quote:At the end of the day, the charts and metrics above are more guides to show that Arizona has an uphill battle to finish with a winning record. For running backs, winning games leads to positive game scripts which correlate to added production consistently. David Johnson is one of, if not the most talented back in the league and his talent will allow him to mask some of the Cardinals shortfalls, to a degree. Ultimately fantasy owners should not expect the same 2016 production from Johnson as he is due for some slight regression. As mentioned before Johnson is more than capable of finishing as the RB1. But his other outcomes can vary significantly based off of team composition. "Due for some slight regression" after he spent an entire season on IR. Thank you for sharing that Spoeank. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 23:30 on May 5, 2018 |
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May 5, 2018 23:25
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opposable thumbs.db posted:As a Cards fan, I can reiterate that the line will be absolute trash, barring some sort of unforeseen large jumps in individual ability and coaching. Beer covered most of the reasons why that article is ridiculous for a player that seems to be going at about #5 right now, but I think the most ridiculous is the game script argument. Putting aside the fact that no one knows for sure how good the Cardinals will be since the NFL is unpredictable, DJ basically plays like a receiver a large portion of the time anyway so he still gets yards and snaps in losses. In the two games in 2016 that Arizona lost by more than one score, DJ still put up 22.1 and 23.1 points in standard scoring (plus 8 and 3 receptions). Exactly. The entire article ignores the fact that David Johnson is a major threat as a receiver, and "lovely game script" just means they'll throw more. He's an every-down back for a reason. I'd love to get him #5 overall (he went #1 in the slow draft) and then go WR heavy for the next few rounds.
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May 6, 2018 01:10
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Rookie WRs and TEs take awhile to turn around, so personally I'd focus on QBs and RBs and try to trade for a TE or WR after they falter their first year. Just look at players like Nelson Agholar or Davante Adams.
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May 8, 2018 20:13
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https://twitter.com/nick_underhill/status/993944447707738113 Alvin Kamara #1 overall pick.
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May 8, 2018 21:07
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Sataere posted:No takers? I know a couple of you expressed regret on missing out. Yeah it's been a great draft.
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May 11, 2018 16:12
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RCarr posted:So apparently Andrew Luck still isn’t throwing a football. I’m pretty sure I’m going to cut him in my dynasty league. So long as he's on a team he should be on yours.
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May 13, 2018 13:39
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RCarr posted:He costs $13 in my salary cap league, and I already have Rivers, Goff, Keenum, and Bortles for like $2 a piece. Should I still let him burn a roster spot all season? Bortles is worthless. I would drop him before Luck. Unless this is a 2QB league I would be fine with Rivers and Goff, and if it is a 2QB league then Keenum would be a viable third.
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May 13, 2018 17:01
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Zauper posted:On the other hand, bortles is a low end fantasy QB1. regardless, I'd try to move 1-2 of the QB and not drop any. He is?
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May 13, 2018 19:01
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Zauper posted:QB12 two seasons in a row, and better than that the season prior. He's not a good player, but he scores like a low end QB1. Fair enough. I guess he's going to be in that place at least one more year.
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May 13, 2018 20:35
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Gregg Rosenthal projected the starters for the AFC. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000931856/article/afc-north-projected-starters-browns-new-feel-joe-flaccos-test Interesting early look. Lots of names that I don't know.
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May 14, 2018 14:52
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RCarr posted:1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLEX. It's a dynasty league with a 25 man roster with 3 IR slots. $250 salary cap. Player salaries increase by $1 or 10% each year (whichever is higher). Here's my roster, with this year's salary next to each. Is this PPR? The cap increase means that the upper level for some of those WRs is just going to be unsustainable; frankly even Brown is getting up there. So here are my thoughts: QB: Cut Keenum and Bortles. It's a 1QB league so sustaining more than three QBs isn't necessary, and neither Keenum nor Bortles have long term upside. Total savings: $4 RB: Cut Darkwa, Carson, and Conner. If this isn't PPR cut or move Montgomery. Assuming it's PPR, total savings is $7. WR: Move Mike Evans for Chris Thompson and Marquise Lee. Lee is particularly interesting since he's the WR1 in Jacksonville and I'd like to think he at least has a solid floor that could make him a WR5. That alone will save you $51. I don't particularly see a need to keep Mitchell. Kevin White might be worth keeping at his price given his upside, and he'd be an easy cut next year. I would see what, if anything, I could get for Benjamin but I think he's a viable cut. Total savings here is $63. TE: I like the idea of selling Travis Kelce. I think it's reasonable to think that Hunter Henry will be a solid pick, and I wouldn't cut Ebron given the lack of passing options in Indianapolis. So that's around $21 you'd save, minus a few bucks depending on who you pick up. So now you're looking at $211, giving you $39 to play with free agency and rookies. That's really not a bad place to be and lets you focus your efforts on RBs. Something else to consider; maybe try to move Crabtree or Jeffery? Both are getting older and have some value now, but that will decrease in the future.
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May 14, 2018 16:08
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RCarr posted:It's the latter. Rookie contracts are based off of draft position. Pick 1-3 = $20, pick 4-6 = $18, and so on and so forth. Can you trade for picks? Stocking up in the 2nd round on cheap guys might be a good strategy as well.
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May 14, 2018 20:04
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Also don't be afraid to trade for 2nd/3rd year players (particularly WRs) who people might have soured on. Players like Davante Adams and Nelson Agholar took awhile to develop. Look for players who were drafted early in 2016 and have underperformed their position. Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell were 2016 first round picks. You could probably get Treadwell for nothing and Doctson would be cheap.
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May 14, 2018 20:12
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RCarr posted:Are you sure that’s worth losing Kelce? I get that Henry and Ebron are decent options but Kelce is a virtual lock for top 2 TE and the drop off after Gronk and him is pretty huge, no? Also I feel like $21 is a good deal for him and he will be a good price for years to come. Patrick Mahomes has played one game. There is no guarantee that he'll be good, and even if he is good historically rookie QBs have not been good for their receiving corps. Hunter Henry is playing under what looks to be a ridiculously dynamic offense with the Chargers, is locked in as a starter with Gates gone, and a 1000 yard 8 TD season is certainly not out of the question.
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May 15, 2018 02:30
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Tiptoes posted:But Mahomes isn't a rookie. Yeah I know. I don't have much data on players who sit a year first, so in my mind he's still a rookie until he's demonstrated a season of starts.
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May 15, 2018 12:19
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RCarr posted:I can get Treadwell for a 5th rounder. You think that's a good move? Treadwell costs $2 this year, and I doubt there's much chance of getting a useful player in the 5th round of a rookie draft. I would.
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May 16, 2018 18:16
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Good job.
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May 16, 2018 22:07
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VietCampo posted:Is there a website where i can mock draft similar to the fantasypros mock draft, but i can do it for all 12 teams simultaneously? Just make your own MFL league.
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May 23, 2018 04:11
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RCarr posted:
The god K'nee demands more sacrifices.
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May 23, 2018 04:12
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Hunter Henry out for the season. Good thing I just traded Kelce!
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I'm not trying to be a homer here, but why shouldn't Alex Smith potentially have a Top 10 season this year?
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May 23, 2018 20:44
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Silly Burrito posted:In a redraft league, how high should Barkley be drafted? Is he going to be grabbed in the mid-to-late first round? He won't make it past the early second.
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May 25, 2018 01:02
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Evan Silva and Mike Clay start mocking the Bill's FO for "Respect the Process" and then are SHOCKED to discover that people are terrible when you piss them off. https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/1002630525658464256?s=20
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Jun 3, 2018 17:18
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Fleaflicker is so much nicer to work with than MFL that it isn't even remotely funny.
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Jun 6, 2018 21:34
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sourdough posted:But this is the truth 😑 Only reason to use their app is so you don't get horrible redirect ads on your phone browser Oh. gently caress that.
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Jun 7, 2018 03:32
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RCarr posted:I've never seen anything like that from Sleeperbot. I just look at the news section. It's ALWAYS ahead of every other app/website I've ever seen in terms of the timing of important news. I have a clear advantage over my league because I always grab the valuable backup when I hear of an injury 15 minutes before everyone else in the league. I ditched Sleeperbot and just have Twitter make notifications from Rotoworld. Seems just as fast.
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Jun 7, 2018 15:41
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RCarr posted:I'm still working on trimming my roster to make room and cap space for the rookie draft. How much money do you need?
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Jun 13, 2018 21:16
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RCarr posted:My draft picks for the 2018 rookie draft (I'm assuming the Kelce trade goes through and I get a top 5 pick in return): I'll just go over the individual players. For my own notes: 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLEX, PPR Quarterback Jared Goff ($3M): Keeper Case Keenum ($2M): Cut. Andrew Luck ($13m): I WANT TO BELIEVE. Philip Rivers ($2M): Keeper. Running Back Rex Burkhead ($4M): Easy cut if he doesn't pan out, but I would reserve judgement since his upside is high. Good possibility of a waiver dump. Chris Carson ($2M): Cut. Seattle's line is poo poo and they drafted Penny for a reason. James Conner ($3M): Cut. Orleans Darkwa ($2M): Cut. Mark Ingram ($11M): Well you're stuck with him. Dion Lewis ($2M): Awesome. Ty Montgomery ($10M): Intriguing give that it's PPR. Don't be afraid to cut during the season. Wide Receiver Robby Anderson ($3M): For $3M you get the presumed WR1 in an under-appreciated offense. Should be a great flex. Kelvin Benjamin ($10M): Trade. Do a package deal with some lower picks and get him off your team; Buffalo looks like poo poo. Antonio Brown ($51M): Worth it. Michael Crabtree ($17M): I can't hate keeping him given the upside in Baltimore. I'd move Benjamin before I moved Crabtree. Devin Funchess ($2M): Too cheap not to keep. DeAndre Hopkins ($26M): God drat I love this roster. Alshon Jeffrey ($21M): He's what, your WR4? God drat. Marqise Lee ($2M): Similar situation to Anderson. Worth keeping for the price alone. Malcolm Mitchell ($2M): This could be a viable cut given his injury issues. I would try to move him for picks. Allen Robinson ($12M): Worth keeping on upside alone, especially if Trubisky looks good. No guarantee he'll start off great but long term potential. Demaryius Thomas ($21M): Yuuuuup. Keenum isn't an exciting fantasy QB but I think this will be great for Thomas. Laquon Treadwell ($2M): High probability that he gives you nothing, but I like his potential more than a 7th round pick. DeDe Westbrook ($2M): Keeper on upside alone. Kevin White ($2M): Probably the last year I would keep him. Tight End Eric Ebron ($2M): I think he might surprise. Apparently the new Indianapolis OC loves to use TEs in his schemes. Hunter Henry ($3M): RIP. Travis Kelce ($21M): Sucks losing him in hindsight, but I think you'll be fine. Including draft picks and removing Kelce you're at 34/$270. Cut Keenum, Carson, Conner, and Darkwa to get to 30/$261. The bottom of your roster is better than most of those late round picks, so you need to either cut or move five players to get to $25. Looking at your roster you have some obvious trades options in Benjamin and your 5th and 7th picks. You also have a lot of upside WRs that could be packaged to look for players with even more upside like Funchess, Mitchell, Treadwell, and White. So that's a total of seven players/picks that you need to reduce down to two. I would start packaging those up to move up the draft board, get 2019 picks, or use them as leverage to swap other players for RBs or another TE. For example package a 4th, 5th, and 7th for a 2nd or package Benjamin and a pick to move up. IIRC the rookie hit rate beyond the third round is incredibly low anyway.
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Jun 14, 2018 15:02
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RCarr posted:Wow, thank you Beer. That's the perfect write-up. You are the man. I should write for a fantasy site or something. I really enjoy doing it, and evaluating stuff like your list helps me keep track of my own situations. Overall your team is really, really strong. Given the format I can easily see playoff contention. The loss of Henry poses an issue on TE and your RB depth is thin, but you have a significant opportunity to hit the playoffs on the strength of your WRs. I see your starters in the beginning as: QB: Andrew Luck RB1: Dion Lewis RB2: Ty Montgomery WR1: Antonio Brown WR2: DeAndre Hopkins FL1: Demaryius Thomas FL2: Alshon Jeffrey FL3: Michael Crabtree TE: Eric Ebron The fact that your team is so stacked that you don't even have to start players like Allen Robinson as a third flex is pretty astounding. That gives you an unprecedented level of flexibility in terms of trade offers and moving players.
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Jun 14, 2018 16:21
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RCarr posted:He ended up accepting. So I send picks 1.05, 4.03, 4.08, 5.08, 7.01 and Kelvin Benjamin, and I receive pick 1.02. It's clearly win-win for both of you, but I would have tried to keep a 4th and used it elsewhere to get a bit more value (maybe a 3rd and 4th for another 2nd, etc). Either way good job playing smart and focusing on clearing out stuff you don't need. For #2, I say Guice. He's the #2 in consensus rankings, Washington will definitely make use of him, and he's an awesome person who takes fans out to the movies. I don't like Penny because of Seattle's offensive line, and I don't like Michel because LOL New England.
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Jun 21, 2018 15:37
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Spoeank posted:Good stat I just heard from Mike Tagliere: no team had top ten RB, top ten TE and two top 30 WR last season. How often has it ever happened?
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Jun 30, 2018 21:13
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Jul 2, 2018 00:56
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