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Trump cannot be impeached and removed without around a dozen republican senators crossing over because it’s literally impossible even with a complete sweep to get to 66 senators this election. It’s good to focus on healthcare and actually putting money into employee pockets rather than more handouts to the wealthy. Run on fixing be potholes in your city. Talk about poo poo people actually care about.
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Sep 3, 2018 18:42
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Duzzy Funlop posted:Can someone give me a quick overview of what could possibly happen in the 2018 midterms? Like, both best-case and worst-case? Senate can go blue, but not 66 senators blue. Every house district is up for grabs so the house could theoretically go 100% blue. This will not happen for a number of reasons. The house is generally gerrymandered with a pretty solid republican tilt. This is done by packing democratic voters into democratic superdistricts that lean anywhere from 60% to over 80% democratic while spreading republican voters around to give them a majority of districts in the +3-6% point range. This means that a shitton of house seats can flip easily with a high enough democratic turnout. The house could flip hard. There are 35 senate seats up for grabs. Right now 24 are democratic, 9 are republican, and 2 are independent. The remaining 65 are 42 republican and 23 democratic. The 9 republican seats are: Arizona, Mississippi x2, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. Flipping any of these is going to be a challenge. Flipping all of them is a long shot. Likewise, democratic senators from Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin are up. The two independents are Bernie Sanders and Angus King. It's very possible that some of these seats flip republican if democrats do not turn up. There are 9 republican spots up for grabs and 9 at risk democratic seats. Best case in the senate is flip all 9. I sincerely do not think this is possible. Flipping all 9 republican spots and maintaining everything else would give the senate a 58-42 split in favor of the democrats. This means for anything to get past the senate short of judicial nominations and budget reconciliation, some republicans will have to cross the aisle. Two republicans for legislation and eight to impeach. That's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is those 9 at risk democrats flip republican giving republicans 60 R votes in the senate. If they hit 60 they can do anything short of impeaching someone or amending the constitution. At that point there is zero roadblocks for doing absolutely anything they want.
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Sep 3, 2018 20:12
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That Works posted:I don't disagree with this but if a blue wave actually occurs it's not gonna be because people just suddenly started wanting to care about local government issues over the last 2 years. You need each individual local candidate to run on local issues yes, but as far as party wide strategic planning the DNC has positioned itself whether they meant to or not as #resistance. If the Mueller report dropped before midterms, then yeah, beat the impeach drum. If it hasn't, then it's not a winnable argument. This is literally the most productive special counsel ever and it is still one of the youngest in terms of how long most last. Give the process time to complete. There are a lot more arrests to come that do not happen if the investigation is rushed. There is a massive disinformation campaign against the investigation, though, that becomes a whataboutism war that isn't really productive and does not drive the vote. AOC was completely correct, and Gillum's winning the FL primary shows, the only thing that matters is GOTV. Turn non-voters into voters and get people to the loving polls. Your average joe isn't motivated by "impeach impeach impeach" as much as they are someone that says "I want to fix the pothole in front of your house."
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Sep 3, 2018 20:16
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You missed a couple senate seats up for grabs this year, Ace. There are 35 with 9 republicans at risk. Even still, dems cannot get 60 votes in the chamber let alone 66 to impeach.
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Sep 3, 2018 20:20
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That Works posted:Yeah, in no way do I expect the Mueller report to come out before midterms, this was about what to do after 2018 (if they win). In that case if they win and then don't try to impeach, even without Republican support, I don't think it's going to help them afterwards. I mean, yeah, the house will absolutely impeach. Will the senate do anything? eh.
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Sep 3, 2018 20:25
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mods changed my name posted:Maybe for a brief moment he had a reverie about an ideal day from his youth and simply didn't notice him Watch the video. He’s going to shake his hand until the dude introduces himself.
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Sep 4, 2018 23:15
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I just saw something that said the dubai plane was actually 10 people sick not 100. Looking for a real source.
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Sep 5, 2018 16:31
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In other current event news, Rob "Vanilla Ice" Van Winkle was on the plane that had ~10 sick people from Dubai today. https://twitter.com/vanillaice/status/1037395392315449344
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Sep 5, 2018 19:12
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Looms also chased jack to his ride sobbing about her checkmark. Also the onion is so good: https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1037404022062428160
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Sep 5, 2018 20:18
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1037464177269514240
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Sep 5, 2018 23:31
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Getting rid of our federalist system and nationalizing all of the state governments is the only way to get national policing or laws.
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Sep 6, 2018 19:34
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That Works posted:Maybe just a national training and standards program then? National training doesn't work unless you're talking about the most basic of things because there are over 51 different sets of criminal laws to enforce. This is because of our dumb "dual-sovereign" setup of government. Federalism was a mistake. also Burt Reynolds just died.
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Sep 6, 2018 19:58
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joat mon posted:Legal abortion, no fault divorce, gay marriage and other rights owe their national application to sovereign States exploring and legalizing those rights first. Marijuana legalization, expended anti-discrimination laws, death penalty prohibitions and other rights exist because sovereign States pass such laws. As more and more sovereign States adopt those rights, it becomes more likely that the Federal government will nationalize them. Without the Sovereign States being able to be these "laboratories of democracy" these rights would either have come into effect much, much later, or not at all. Those same laboratories of democracy also went to war with each other over human chattel, instituted jim crow, continue to oppress minorities of every sort, and believe women are property to be owned by their fathers or husbands. Many of them, my current and home states included, have horrific and unconstitutional laws on the books just waiting for a guy like Kavanaugh to get confirmed so civil rights cases can be overturned. I'm not saying abolishing all home rule is the goal, because that would be ridiculous. There is zero reason to have 50 different legal codes and a competing federal code. There is so much redundancy and inefficiencies inherent to our system that lead to a lot of disparate results. Yes, you're absolutely right, that some good has came from independent sovereignty, however there's just as much horrible poo poo as well. There are ways to balance the competing interests of home rule along with having a universal and standardized set of laws and courts.
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Sep 6, 2018 20:24
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warsow posted:But wouldn’t a base level of training that covers deescalation and proper escalation of force help diffuse use of deadly force by police? Use of force varies by jurisdiction.
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Sep 6, 2018 20:31
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musk has a security clearance?
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Sep 7, 2018 22:14
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Four days out it could go anywhere still. There’s a better chance than not that it’s still going to get big and make an east coast collision somewhere between north florida and virginia.
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Sep 10, 2018 06:14
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WAR CRIME SYNDICAT posted:Either way, the video of that shoot is hosed. That cop just shot for no real reason. It’s not just a cop. It’s him, and he immediately felt loving remorse afterwards like “what the gently caress have I done?” according to the original article. It’s a lovely situation. With that said it’s not break into someone else’s apartment and shoot them in their underwear bad but still.
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Sep 10, 2018 14:51
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His cabinet won't use the 25th because they basically have control of him and are using him as a tool to pass horrific legislation. For example, after giving the wealthiest $1.5 trillion last year (of which next to nothing went back to actual workers and instead almost entirely went to shareholders and executives), the GOP is set to pass another set of tax cuts costing another $2T over 10 years.
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Sep 12, 2018 13:20
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BigDave posted:Isn't there a limit to how much they can cut? At some point there aren't any taxes left. That's where they just cut medicaid and SNAP to make up for it.
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Sep 12, 2018 14:06
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mods changed my name posted:"good things aren't possible right now" - Jesus Jesus actually was collective as all hell. He (if any one person bearing that name actually existed. Jesus is just a weird hosed up translation of justin or something like that anyways. There probably wasn't anyone named "jesus" but there were a whole lot of dudes with the name justin that became jesus because of hosed up translating, but I digress) preached that people should not suffer, but rather give up everything and quit chasing material goals. The only thing that mattered in this life was to care for your fellow man because the world is ending soon and the kingdom of heaven will be upon us. That's also part of why hardcore american christians are pro-israel - they need israel there for the apocalypse to begin and bring back Jesus. Remember, George W. Bush thought Saddam was literally the anti-christ and talked about nutjob hardcore american christian stuff with foreign leaders on the regular. It's literally a death cult. Taking care of your fellow man is preached hardcore in the bible. So is giving everything you own to the poor and living humble and selfless. Some of my wealthy "christian" friends like to argue that they're humble because their family still shops at wal mart.
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Sep 12, 2018 18:34
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Florence only dropped to a cat 3 because it increased significantly in size. It should be a cat 4 again soon. Basically all projections now have it just chilling off the carolina coast for a couple of days just ruining everything. Edit: And yeah, joshua is what it was. And there were probably dozens or more joshes running around roman palestine preaching about god's coming and the end of the world.
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Sep 12, 2018 20:59
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They didn't pick up any more cat 4 winds, but the size of the cat 3 winds (considered major storm for NOAA) is 110kt and the circle that represents that on their map has gotten appreciably larger today. The 5PM update is basically confirming the chilling down the coast projection. This thing is going to start making landfall early tomorrow morning. The eye is going to approach land, but just chill off the coast and gleefully take all day friday to move from the edge of NC/SC to the SC/Georgia border before finally moving inland and starting to dissipate over Georgia and the rest of the southeast. Also parts of all three states are getting more than 3 feet of water dumped on them in this same timeframe. The shallow end of a pool over 3 days.
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Sep 12, 2018 22:14
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Crakkerjakk posted:Fauxton, are you the person who does money laundering investigations? If so, what do you think of that vox article I linked upthread about Trump's business being tied into the Russian mafia laundering money through real estate for the last three decades. Plausible? It's been public knowledge since the primaries and wasn't really a big secret before. After Trump's bankruptcies in the 90s no American lender would touch him so he's been funding everything with laundered russian money ever since.
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Sep 12, 2018 23:01
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Storm flag is in tatters but holding strong into the night.
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Sep 14, 2018 00:49
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Nostalgia4Infinity posted:I'm sorry but 30 day probations for: I agree with you in part, but not entirely. It's an easy fix (just give them another 6er and it should overwrite the 30day), but I get where he was coming from when he made the decision. Almost all people agree with you when it comes to gun control. Almost all posters here are appalled by the horrific poo poo that cops get away with. I agree with you entirely. These two topics, in particular, turn into a loving shitshow in this thread because people start dogpiling on the one or two dinguses and it just turns into a circle jerk. Breaking news on these topics should always be welcome, but the echo chamber shitposts flood the thread and make it useless for what it's supposed to be. It's not that we shouldn't discuss CEs. We should. It's that we're all a bunch of broke brained morons who devolve into tribal shouting at a moment's notice. Mods are just trying to keep the thread readable. If we could police ourselves a little better about just ignoring morons or actually being funny when insulting them, then certain topics wouldn't be verboten. These are sensitive and horrific topics. People who defend the actions should be rightly called out. However, it really turns into just an orgy of shitposts and becomes tiring to read. Make better callouts of people's lovely statements and you'll be less likely to turn the thread to poo poo.
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Sep 16, 2018 15:14
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Nostalgia4Infinity posted:Oh step off the loving cross and stow your petty insults. Going directly from a 6 hour to a 30 day probation is some thin-skinned petty tyranny poo poo that should be called out. You're both right. You are a top poo poo stirrer in here and the probations should be overwritten.
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Sep 16, 2018 15:56
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WAR CRIME SYNDICAT posted:I would take everything that woman writes with a grain of salt. It was in 2007 when she was in the primary battle with Obama.
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Sep 18, 2018 14:13
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I have got to say, Cohen has impressed me. He said when he pleaded that he was not doing it for leniency or anything else. He was doing it because it was the right thing to do. And since he hasn’t asked for immunity or any special favors. He’s just willingly sat down with special counsel and prosecutors and answered all of their questions. He’s still a scumbag and a schmuck, but it’s nice to see a little redemption out of this entire fiasco.
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Sep 21, 2018 00:02
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boop the snoot posted:He’s doing it for leniency op Eh. Typically when people are asking for leniency they negotiate it as a part of a deal. Cohen didn’t strike a deal. The grand jury presented indictments and he immediately pleaded without negotiation. That isn’t standard behavior. His father apparently guilt tripped the gently caress out of him and it stuck.
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Sep 21, 2018 00:25
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Cleveland is going to burn to the ground tonight. The browns are now 1-1-1.
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Sep 21, 2018 04:41
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Immanentized posted:White House might be trying to pre-empt Rosenstein's soft resignation by summoning him, likely to fire him before his resignation processes. Rosenstein doesn't want and isn't going to resign quietly. There's no pre-empting anything. A quiet resignation is what Trump wants.
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Sep 24, 2018 16:06
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Immanentized posted:That's fine, but I don't think Trump is in the loop in any capacity at this point. If Kelly got a verbal resignation, that means that the rest of the executive staff needs to be made aware, etc. It's going to be a clusterfuck for both "sides" because the sheer ineptitude and overlap of duties going on at this point. There's no precedent for control of narrative or execution in this administration, but there is for manifestly acting against their own self-interest. Kelly never got a verbal resignation. This has been the plan ever since they planted the false story about Rosenstein saying they should invoke the 25th.
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Sep 24, 2018 16:15
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The Iron Rose posted:I think assuming the administration orchestrated this is giving them way too much credit. They have been the source via the NYT of a number of bullshit stories over the years. This is Trump 101 and is the same tactics he's used in all his legal troubles going back to the 80s. He uses friends in the media to publish bullshit or to pay people off. The most recent one before this resignation poo poo was the rosenstein says they should invoke the 25th and wear a wire report. They're stories that get disproven with the most modicum of investigative journalism, but they hit the street first and stick into people's minds.
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Sep 24, 2018 16:33
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The Iron Rose posted:Oh I'm not denying that this is a blatant hit job. I just think that it implies too much competence for this to be a deliberate action to take attention away from the Kavanaugh accusations. Oh, I don't think this has anything to do with kavanaugh.
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Sep 24, 2018 16:40
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Nephzinho posted:What would an overturning of Roe even look like, practically speaking? Would it require someone bringing it before the court to review again or can the bench just decide to review it? If it were overturned, wouldn't it just make states able to decide on their own how to handle it? In such a case where it was kicked to the states, wouldn't women still be able to travel (seeing as many already do depending on what state/waiting periods you have)? Even just timeline wise, between the appointment and when states voted on new legislation, are we talking weeks/months/years? First off, it wouldn't likely be from an abortion case at all. Roe is based on precedence from the Griswold v Connecticut case. This was a case where a connecticut law that required a wife to notify her husband that she wanted to purchase birth control was found unconstitutional. It was deemed that there was a "privacy right" built into the "penumbras and emanations" of the bill of rights. That is to say that the general intent of the entire bill of rights is one of a general right of privacy. This privacy right was enforced upon the states via the due process clause of the 14th amendment. Many conservative jurists believe that this due process incorporation is improper and any privacy rights written between the lines of the bill of rights actual text do not exist. For example look at any Clarence Thomas concurrence or dissent on any case found under this line of reasoning. In cases that advance the conservative dogma, he finds another form of incorporation in a concurrence (usually privileges and immunities from the 14th). In the rest he dissents and specifically calls out the due process incorporation as wrong. That's how this happens. A single case comes up that challenges the findings of Griswold. It could be someone suing over the exact same Connecticut law (were it still on the books), and the court could simply find it for the other side saying that there's no federal protection from a state saying that you have to notify your spouse of birth control purchases. Roe, Lawrence v Texas, and Obgerfell were all based upon this reasoning, and all become invalid if it is over turned.
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Sep 24, 2018 21:49
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I should further note that overturning any of those returns us to a state where there are very little protections from a federal standpoint for sexual or reproductive choice at all. It would be entirely in the realm of the state. Basically if you live in a liberal state, overturning all of these federal rights wouldn't change a thing. If you live in Texas, though, welcome to Christian Sharia.
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Sep 24, 2018 21:52
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The venture bros. addressed this last weekend. If you're going to have a dick measuring contest, you have to do it old school and use proper rulers.
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Sep 25, 2018 14:18
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Kawasaki Nun posted:So all these rape allegations and drugged rape parties were all in the candidate research that the President and company did on Kavanaigh right? They had a letter talking about how good of a classmate he was from 65 different women from his past ready to go the moment the first allegation dropped.
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Sep 26, 2018 19:59
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boop the snoot posted:Who the hell is brown moses Brown Moses is a goon named Eliot Higgins. He runs Bellingcat. He's been doing a lot of really good open source reporting on stuff in the middle east and north africa for 6 or 7 years now.
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Sep 26, 2018 22:29
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A personal confession with no evidence or corroborating evidence isn't sufficient evidence to prosecute let alone convict beyond a reasonable doubt. They're just doing this because they're getting paid to do so or trying to cover for their guy. No republican senators have came out against Kavanaugh, and I don't see it happening. If they don't get Kavanaugh on the SCOTUS for whatever reason, then they'll confirm someone just as bad or worse ideologically speaking that happens to be less rapey. I think Kavanaugh is inevitable, and the best hope we have is impeaching him in 2020, but that requires 66 democratic senators and just loving  that alaska, arkansas, georgia, idaho, iowa, kansas, kentucky, louisiana, montana, nebraska, north carolina, oklahoma, south carolina, south dakota, tennessee, texas, west virginia, or wyoming would elect a democratic candidate in 2020. I hope he's not confirmed, but I think he will be. In that case, you want a guy like Kav over another Gorsuch so that you have something obvious and simple to use to remove him from the bench.
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Sep 27, 2018 12:52
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