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Hi thread. How you doing. Hillary is running or at least trying to figure out if she can.
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Nov 7, 2018 15:43
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Solkanar512 posted:That being said, why aren’t we talking about increasing the size of the House to mitigate gerrymandering and the obvious issues with the Electoral College? It does reduce the outsized influence of those Vermont bastards though.
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Nov 7, 2018 15:46
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Solkanar512 posted:I’m talking about say twice the number of seats in the House, massively diluting the effect of electoral votes based on Senate seats. But you can still have a situation where a president loses the popular vote but wins in specific states, resulting in another Trump. It's just the states you have win that change.
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Nov 7, 2018 15:55
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Man, I didn't realize that Pelosi was the chair of every committee and that also a vague speech about bipartisan meant you forfeited subpoena powers for 2 years. (Ryan didn't like what Nunes was doing, hint hint)
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Nov 7, 2018 15:59
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Ginette Reno posted:But the Dems also have like 3-4 (at least) vulnerable Senators in coin flip states. *no I won't because 2 years is a long rear end time.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:02
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Your Taint posted:You, uh, can't gerrymander the Senate.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:05
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The economy going bad is almost certainly a bad thing for Trump. America very consistently blames the president for a recession.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:08
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Your Taint posted:lol if you believe a single person who voted Republican in 2016 or yesterday would believe it was Trump's fault for a single second. Bad Economy = Bad President has been very consistent for the last 60+ years.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:14
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sean10mm posted:I don't think trying to extrapolate from here to 2022 is very helpful or meaningful honestly.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:35
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Lol Beto and Gillum aren't running.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:38
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Tibalt posted:Lol Beto and Gillum aren't running.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:40
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Funny how The Bringer Of Derails survived and voted for Bart while Heidi lost. The WV and ND race are very different situations and drawing some national strategy from it is pointless
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Nov 7, 2018 16:56
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evilweasel posted:They're very different races, but I think it's important to look at why Manchin, Tester (potentially) and Brown (people keep forgetting him but I think he's the most important to look at because he just crushed it while being a pretty solidly good Democrat) cruised to re-election while their states stayed solidly red, but McCaskill/Hetikamp/Donnelly lost, mostly pretty badly. the truth... Is in the middle of this 12 page document on potential candidates and strategies for the AZ race
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Nov 7, 2018 17:07
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Buffer posted:I don't see why you couldn't amend away the senate. You just maybe need to strike the language that says you can't first. Not being able to do that would basically invalidate the current constitution.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:14
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Tibalt posted:An amendment to allow an amendment to abolish the Senate would probably be successfully challenged as "some goofy bullshit" but I don't think there's any case law that covers anything close. To clarify, I mean that the Roberts court would at least entertain the argument that changing the rules to abolish the Senate would be subject to the same requirements as doing it directly. But that's one hell of a hypothetical.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:17
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Inglonias posted:Is there a different thread for wallowing around and being sadbrains, or is it this one?
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Nov 7, 2018 17:20
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I think everyone will feel a bit better once Congress is back in session for a month or two. I mean, someone will post about the Trump judicial nominees but when have people cared about that *cough* *cough*
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Nov 7, 2018 17:27
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It also helps to contextualize this election as a couple of paragraphs in a 2120 history text book in a chapter titled "Antebellum Politics" 
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Nov 7, 2018 17:54
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Harik posted:No. They tend to assume the Presidential party is the one being partisan, but not always.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:14
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goethe.cx posted:anyone making definitive predictions about 2020 has their head up their rear end, as did anyone two years ago making definitive predictions about last night
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Nov 7, 2018 18:22
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Tibalt posted:There will definitely be an election.  AMERICA DECIDES, 2020! I have polisci theory about elections. It's not a crazy theory, most people won't disagree with it - elections are 90% macro factors, 9% micro factors, and 1% horse race bullshit. The Macro factors are things like demographics, geography, voter trends, and the economy. Even two years out, a lot of this stuff is set in stone. Micro factors are things like the candidate, incumbency, fundraising, down-ballot effects, scandals, and so on. Finally you have horse race bullshit like debates, gaffes, and attack ads that really don't do poo poo, but CNN will spend hours discussing. I believe you can take a look today, and make a pretty good guess at what's going to matter in two years. Since some of you didn't pay attention in Civics class or are foreigners, I'm going to be talking about a LOT of very basic info here. If you already know about US politics, I'll put the key points in bold for you to skim. What's up for election, 2020:
The entire House of Representatives (Yes, it happens literally every two years. All of it) 33 Class 2 Senators and John McCain's Senator seat 11 Governors A Lot Of Other Stuff (AGs, state legislatures, territorial governors, ect) The Presidential Election The president is determined by the Electoral College - the president gets 1 vote for each Representative and each Senator for every state they received the majority of votes*. To put it another way, the President wins by winning the most states, but the states are worth different amount. In total, there 538 votes available for the 50 states, from 55 votes for California to 3 votes for North Dakota. However, most states (and their corresponding votes) are fairly locked in. Since 2000, 37 states have voted the same way for each election. Taking those as assumed, the Democrat has 'locked in' 195 votes and the Republican candidate has locked in 179 votes, leaving 164 votes available in 13 states. Of course, there's a couple limitations to looking at it this way. Some previously reliable states have started looking swingy, and some swingy states are looking reliable. But the key states will probably be some combination of NH (4), NM (5), NV (6), IA (6), CO (9), WI (10), IN (11), VA (13), NC (15), MI (16), OH (18), PA (20), & FL (29). I would suggest TX (38) and GA (16) as states that potentially get talked about, but that's "Death of the Republican Party" talk. In reality, only 5 of these states should actually 'matter' on election night - Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina & Michigan. This list might be pretty different in 2 years, but those would be your 'core' swing states. FL, PA, and OH have been the swing state trifecta for 20 years now, while North Carolina was a pick-up by Obama and Michigan was a pick-up by Trump. That's all there really is to say about the 2020 presidential election until we get closer, though. *Several states split their votes but they're usually not relevant The House of Representatives Unlike the President (4 years) and Senators (6 years), Representatives serve 2 years and must be elected EVERY cycle. There are 435 representatives, portioned out to each state based on their population during the most recent census. For each Representative, the state determine districts that have (roughly) equal populations. Each of these races are VERY local and get 0 polling, and the borders constantly change, so it's almost impossible to make predictions about specific races. Luckily! That all tends to balance itself out in aggregate - taken as a whole, the House election is probably as close to a parliamentary style proportional election you're going to get in the United States, albeit one with a definite Republican tilt. 218 seats are needed for a majority, and the majority party decides Committee Chairs. Committee Chairs are incredibly powerful individuals have massive amounts of control over their Committees, and committee has almost free reign to investigate, subpoena, and holding hearings related to area. Once you have 218 seats, additional seats aren't as important - they give you more votes in committees, and they give you more "Hall Passes" during votes - party leaders let certain members vote no on a bill, to improve their electoral chances in their home district. This can be very important for things like budgets - letting 20 or so Democrats vote against your bipartisan budget deal could both prevent a shutdown, and prevent any faction of members hold the whole thing hostage. The Republicans had consistent issues with their House Freedom Caucus due to this. The Democrats look like they'll have between 230 and 240 seats in the house after yesterday's election. Generally speaking, the fortunes of the party follows the fortunes of the President (or vice versa...). Generally, midterm and presidential elections have played out very differently, so I'm going to refer to only Presidential election years. In the recent elections where a Democrat won the presidency (2008 & 2012), the Democratic party has gained an average of 14.5 seats. The 2008 election could be particularly instructive - as the unpopular George Bush left office, the democrats gained 21 seats, for a total of 257. However, in years where the Republican candidate won (2000, 2004 & 2016), the Democrats gained an average of 1.3 seats. In the their worst presidential election year, the Democrats lost only 6 seats. So it's unlikely that Republicans will pick up the 12 to 22 seats they'll need to take control in 2020, regardless of how well Trump performs. There's an additional complicating factor here. A "trifecta" refers to when one party has unitary control of a state government - both chambers of the legislature and the governor. After last night, 6 states now have a Democratic trifecta, while 4 (possibly 5) states broke their Republican trifecta. This is important because, as mentioned before, the states are portioned out their number of representatives after each census, which happens one a decade. As the number of the representatives change, and the number of people in each district change, the state map of federal districts for each representative are re-drawn. Using mathematics and geography, known as Gerrymandering, a state government controlled by one party can draw the lines of the their districts in such as way that it gives benefit to their party in any election. It's not quite clear how much of the Republican lean in the House is due to gerrymandering, and how much is due to the innate rural bias in this weird rear end system some dudes set up 200 years ago, which we then made even weirder by arbitrarily deciding to freeze the number of representatives at 435. I've already talked about the Senate elections and nobody cares about other states' governors, so I'll probably do those some other time.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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Pollyanna posted:Wait. Is this a good or bad thing?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:29
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I like how Trump is completely dependent on the Senate's cooperation and just fired their Favorite Racist Elf in a poorly conceived effort to save himself. Just after a painfully bad wave election where it seemed like Trump actually hurt the candidates he campaigned for.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:32
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In a pointless attempt to get ahead of the rampant misinformation about to be spread: If the AG refuses to allow the SCO to pursue some action (indictment, questioning, etc), the SCO is obligated to send a report to Congress.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:36
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Diogines posted:A prosecution won't be able to use any record in a court if they can't prove when and how it was made. Copies of documents Mueller hides on a USB in his boot can't be used in a court, or at least not easily.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:40
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I can a brilliant plan. First, we fire the special prosecutor. Then, in contravention of standard practices, we burn all their records. Then, when Schiff calls on Mueller to testify on what he found, we claim it's fake news. Then, then they subpoena us, we refuse. Then, when the Supreme Court rules against us, we call it fake news again. Then, when Congress charges us with Contempt, Trump pardons us. Then, when they pass articles of impeachment, we call it fake news a third time and force the Senate to have a very public trial. Like I said, BRILLIANT!
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Nov 7, 2018 21:46
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I also like how you all believe the Wednesday morning Jeff Sessions firing is some carefully laid out master plan that WON'T immediately go to poo poo and become a huge mess. I mean Like Have you been paying attention to this White House? I expect we'll find out that the supposed new AG isn't a US citizen within 48 hours.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:56
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A poorly conceived snap hiring decision is why Mueller was assigned in the first place. This feels less thought out than the Comey firing.
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Nov 7, 2018 22:00
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I like how shits about to pop off and someone is still trying to have that Pelosi Bad derail. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 7, 2018 22:07
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Rinkles posted:Why do you think that? This has seemed inevitable for a while. Like, there HAD to be a better way to present this that didn't involve Sessions writing a resignation letter that started with "As per your orders I'm fired" in such a way that it seemed to be in response to the election.
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Nov 7, 2018 22:10
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Tibalt posted:
Thanks Vinnie. Anyway, reminder of the key points from my last post: quote:What's up for election, 2020: evilweasel posted:Wisconsin is much more important than Ohio. If Dems take back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania while losing Ohio (and don't lose any Clinton states) they win and that's their easiest path to the White House. So let's discuss Senate and Governor races! Senate Elections Most of this is repeated from the midterm thread, so feel free to skip this if you read that post. Most important than individual senators is controlling the Senate leadership. In addition to passing laws and budgets with the House, the Senate has a unique role of confirming presidential nominees. Presidential nominations cover a wide range of positions in the Executive and Judicial branch - everything from ambassadors, to Attorney General, to district judges, to the Supreme Court Justices. Being the Senate Majority Leader basically gives you a soft veto over those nominees - don't like a nominee? Don't hold a vote. Each state has 2 senators, and senators serve 6 year terms. As a result, a third of the Senate is up for each election. In addition, winning control of the Senate requires defending Democratic seats and flipping Republican seats. As a result, parties have "good" and "bad" maps - good maps have lots of Senate seats that can be flipped in your favor, while bad maps have a lot of Senate seats you need to defend. 2020 is a Class 2 year. Currently, that class is split as follows: 12 Democrat, 21 Republican. You also got one special election in Arizona, currently held by a Republican. But just because a seat is up for election doesn't mean anyone is seriously running for it. How many are competitive? The Republicans will have to hold seats in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Kentucky, Montana and North Carolina. The Democrats will need to defend Alabama and New Hampshire. As you all saw with 2018, two years can be a hell of a long time. As it stands today, I would say that Alabama is a likely Republican pick-up. So, assuming that the Democrats defend New Hampshire, Democrats still need to pick up 5 seats to control the Senate (assuming a Democratic Vice-President). Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) would be my early bets for vulnerable seats. After that... Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has attracted a lot of negative attention, and the Republican party seems to be waning in Kentucky. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and David Perdue (R-GA) could also be on the chopping block. As a brief tangent. Look at those seats, notice anything? None of those seats are obvious seats the Democrats "should" win. Here's my huge issue with some posters in this thread - the Dems have been good. They have been amazing at competing in every competitive Senate election, every year. And as a result, you get this situation where, because the Democrats couldn't defend North Dakota and couldn't flip loving Tennessee, they need to run the tables on states like Arizona and North Carolina. This is why Senators like Manchin are so drat important. Unhappy with how Gorsuch has voted? Apprehensive about Kavanaugh? You need Manchin, you wanted Bredesen, and you're praying for someone who can compete in Kentucky, or Georgia, or Iowa. Let's just say that you're not going to get a Cory Booker in Iowa. There just isn't a path for Senate control that doesn't rely on states that voted (and will vote) for Trump. But the local politicians in those states can theoretically outperform the Presidential candidate. Point is, winning 4 seats in 2020 is going to be a real uphill battle. But unlike the 2018 map, the Democrats will be the ones in an aggressive position where they're attacking vulnerable Republican seats and forcing Mitch to defend his majority. I wouldn't put money on a Democratic Senate in 2020, but I'd much rather be in their shoes than trying to defend 8 or 9 seats. Add in the Trump Factor and you've got a potentially dramatic night ahead. Governor Elections There are 11 states with Governor elections in 2020, 4 held by Democrats: DE, MT, NC, WA and 7 held by Republicans: IN, MO, NH, ND, UT, VT, WV Every incumbent besides Steve Bullock (D-MT) is eligible for re-election, although Gary Herbert (R-UT) has announced his retirement. Honestly, every state is so weird, and the power invested in the governor in each state is so different, and the race in each state is going to be so uniquely local that it's impossible to talk about generalities. Most the governors were first elected in 2016. Since I'm planning to talk about each state's races in detail, I'll probably go into the governor's race there. Generally, though, making or breaking trifectas at the state level won't be as important in 2020, because the redistricting I mentioned in the House of Representatives will have already happened. That said, Roy Cooper (R-NC) will be important. Which state do people want me to discuss first?
Colorado (Senate seat, potential swing state) New Hampshire (Senate seat, governor, potential swing state) Or demand another state if you'd like, I'll probably go through all of them until I either get banned or get bored.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:34
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TulliusCicero posted:So the GOP traded 2 Senate seats for the entire House? And McConnell is trying to spin that as a victory?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:44
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Tibalt posted:It likely puts the Senate out of Democratic hands until 2022 at the earliest.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:46
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Deified Data posted:The courts are lost to us. Maybe not for our children's children, but in our lifetime they are almost assuredly beyond our reach unless we grow the balls to stack them to the gills.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:51
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Mr Interweb posted:Isn't that just for the Gov race?
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Nov 8, 2018 04:52
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Z. Autobahn posted:Can someone smarter than me explain what the value is in Abrams or Nelson calling for a recount? It looks like the average amount of votes to change in a recount is 250, which is wildly less than their margins. Is the hope just to discover some kind of widespread fraud? Edit : also a runoff gets you a free refill if Kemp falls before 50%
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Nov 8, 2018 05:04
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GoutPatrol posted:Hey remember 12 hours ago when several people in this thread wanted the dems to back off gun control? I mean, I don't agree, but it's not a crazy argument.
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Nov 8, 2018 14:51
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CubanMissile posted:Obama spent seven years not mentioning guns and it didn't stop every conservative from trying to claim that's his top goal after socialism and making everyone convert to Islam.
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Nov 8, 2018 15:13
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turnip kid posted:85 year olds tend to die pretty easy, yeah.
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Nov 8, 2018 15:24
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friendbot2000 posted:Lol no way RBG does that with Trump in office. You will pry that gavel from her cold dead fingers. Buttery mails though
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Nov 8, 2018 15:28
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