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Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Nemo Somen posted:

Hm, I hope returning voting rights to felons helps against this because Florida switching from lean Dem to lean R makes the path to 270 look real awkward for Dems. Of course, the situation is a bit more complex than that. It's just that I'm looking at the red states and feel confident that most of them won't vote for a generic Dem and I think a good number of blue states can go red if a candidate devoid of charisma is at the top of the ticket. I wonder who would be a good Dem to maintain a hold on these states.
Depends on the state, and we can take it to the primary thread if it turns into a real conversation, but I think most of the names being thrown around that are stronger in rust belt states (PA, MI, OH) aren't going to be as strong in the southern states (NC and FL).

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Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

enraged_camel posted:

For what? They want to interrogate him and force him to recuse himself from the Russia stuff. If he is no longer acting AG by then, what would be the point of a subpoena?
Well, potentially, he could testify under oath that Trump ordered him to kill or hamper the Mueller investigation.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

It also isn't particularly hard to call most races. I think if you crunched the numbers, my gut feeling is that most elections have similar number of late switches. It's just that this election is particularly important at the margins, why most elections your average voter doesn't care if the Democrats won 5 seats versus 10 seats.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

"Presidential harassment" makes me think of the president's sexual harrassment, so I don't think it will be a very effective phrase for me and those like me (college educated white men) but i'm probably not the platonic ideal of that particular group.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Not to get all Freudian, Neilsen is also a woman with the main job of telling Trump "no." Not because she wants to, understand, but because Trump seems to have a fundamental misunderstanding of how immigration works and has reportedly tried to do things like cancel all visas from Central America or send asylum seekers away without a hearing or have the army fight the caravan or insist on building the wall.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

If Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race and lose the Florida Senate race I'm just gonna, like, stop making any predictions. Ever.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Mezzanine posted:

I no longer believe the theory that screaming about WITCH HUNT means that indictments, etc are imminent. The timing has never really lined up, I feel like it's unlikely he'd be told of it at 7AM, and let's be honest; his sole influence now is Fox News. He sees or hears "MUELLER" on the TV box, he tweets. It's just a matter of the angrier he is, the more he tweets.
I feel that more can be read into the specific mention of Mueller's team being "rude" and persistent with their questioning - it seems ti indicate that 1) someone still in close contact with Trump was questioned and 2) it didn't go well.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Teddybear posted:

Am I mistaken— a finding that he is would trip the Magnitsky Act sanctions and lead to basically the end of Saudi-US business, given how entrenched MBS is?
Which is probably why there is so much push back and foot dragging on it. It seems clear that Turkey has undeniable proof with an impeccable evidence trail, but someone in the Justice Department doesn't want to pull the trigger on completely destroying the current geopolitical status quo in the Middle East (+ any petroleum producing or dependent nation).

Which, uh... I don't really blame them.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Tibalt posted:

Which is probably why there is so much push back and foot dragging on it. It seems clear that Turkey has undeniable proof with an impeccable evidence trail, but someone in the Justice Department doesn't want to pull the trigger on completely destroying the current geopolitical status quo in the Middle East (+ any petroleum producing or dependent nation).

Which, uh... I don't really blame them.
Or alternatively MBS ends up dead somewhere but that's also a pretty disruptive event too!

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Charlz Guybon posted:

Love is going down after all. Dem floor is now +39 in the House

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064688106945880064
Loving this slow trickle of late flips. There is still the outside chance (VERY outside) that the final count is +42 Democrats, making this their single best election ever. +41 would tie them for the post-watergate election.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

AP Exclusive: Navient "may" have driven tens of thousands of borrowers struggling with their debts into higher-cost repayment plans.

2017 audit that finally became public.

edit: she's running

Tibalt fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Nov 21, 2018

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Sanguinia posted:

Remember the "no blue wave," BS on election night, including from inside this very forum? Fun times. If only there was a ghost of a chance in MS or FL had gone the other way to really put the icing on the cake.

It's funny, because I really expected the Rs to be all-in on how successful Kavanaugh was for them because of the wins in MO and ND since those senators refusing Beerman was so high-profile and because the only Dem that backed him survived the Blue Dog Slaughter, but there's been barely a peep on that front.
I remember toxxing that the Democrats would take the house while everyone was freaking out

PS, My Jewish rear end and my POC wife were fleeing to, like, Italy like reverse 1930s Jews otherwise because I know how this poo poo ends and I'm going to be one of those grandpas that knows when poo poo is going down in 40 years after the Siege of Salt Lake City finally puts an end to the fascist menace in our lifetime. Nobody putting my loving yinzer rear end in a camp happy rosh hashanah I'm glad I don't have to flee my home country this year so in that context $10 American doesn't mean gently caress.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

rscott posted:

I have bad news about Italy
Correct, the actual escape plan was Hong Kong.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Hellblazer187 posted:

Incoming Mexican government: no asylum deal with Trump

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5bfa5d83e4b0eb6d930f3155
Sounds like they actually were in talks, but Oberto realizes that executing foreign policy when you aren't the president is a bad look.

Now the only question is, did someone tell WaPo this because they're incompetent, or because they want to spike the deal.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Hellblazer187 posted:

It just seems bizarre that an incoming left wing Mexican president would be like "OK sure whatever you want" to a right wing US president who is vocally racist against Mexicans.
When you've got a president whose threatening to completely close the border, you don't really have a choice about at least talking to him and trying to resolve the situation.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

bird food bathtub posted:

They really should have known by now that the very first thing you do after talking to the toddler in chief is tell the rest of the world what you actually talked about so he can't make up bullshit and lie about it.
I mean, they did. I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of Mexico housing but no safe third country deal is reached - if the US isn't going to house them in the states, Mexico is going to house them by default. Might as well get something in return, like dropping the threats of closing the border.

Even a one or two day closure would be catastrophic, although I don't think the president can do that unilaterally.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Hellblazer187 posted:

Closing the southern border would torch the US economy as well. He's never going to close the border.
We've got 25% tariffs that seem increasingly likely to actually go into effect. As far as economics go, i'm pretty sure there's no one at the helm.

Edit: unlike tariffs though, I don't think Trump can unilaterally close the border, so i'm not saying it'll happen. Just pointing out that an economy torching policy has been on the way for a year now.

Tibalt fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Nov 25, 2018

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

exploded mummy posted:

Shaich went to a really liberal college in Worcester, Massachusetts .
Panera bread is also a relatively ethical* corporation with an awareness of issues like hunger in America.

*as in, as ethical as a public owned corporation in America's capitalist system can be, limited by their usage of a franchise system that insulates them from direct interaction with the workers in the majority of their locations.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Data Graham posted:

My question is whether businesses are being actually socially conscious nowadays, i.e. pulling advertising from Fox News shows, taking stands that cause chuds to boycott them, etc; or whether it's all calculated and performative and aimed at shareholder profits in the end anyway

Like that classic Bill Hicks bit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHEOGrkhDp0
Am I being a good person because it makes me feel better about myself, because it makes others think more highly of me, or because I'm innately good?

The test, of course, is whether I do something good even if it harms me and reduces my social standing (which these corporations obviously fail)... but the real question is does it matter if i'm doing a moral thing for the right reason, and which reason is right?

And can individual morality be scaled up to an organization? Should it be? Probably not!

Edit: also there is a significant group of institutional investors who identify public corporations who have large stores of unexploited goodwill and proceed to invest heavily in those corporations, force a change of leadership, and "churn" the goodwill into investor dividends, so it's not like a CEO can just choose to focus on the longterm.

Tibalt fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Nov 26, 2018

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Handsome Ralph posted:

Is it possible Mueller has a cooperating witness that no one is aware of at this point?
You mean... besides Gate and Flynn?

Like, if I was involved in any international funny business for Trump while Flynn wasn't under arrest, I would be fleeing the country. The Trump Presidential Campaign didn't really seem to maintain opsec, if ya know what I mean. I honestly expect the nail in the coffin to be some random email detailing their crimes with the entire Trump family CC'd for no real reason..

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Like... I know that's going to be a difficult case to make due to the circumstances, but this is conspiracy to obstruct justice, right? "Here's what I told investigators, here's what they think, let's keep our story straight"?

Could explain why Mueller is willing to cut Manafort loose even without unimpeachable evidence, I guess.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

bird food bathtub posted:

Yowza. Cohen raid 2.0?
Could be, or could be completely unrelated public corruption. It doesn't seem like Burke would be involved with anything related to the SCO.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Sanguinia posted:

This is such loving horseshit. If gerrymandered forever-republican state legislatures in purple states can just obliterate any ability for any Democrat to implement their policies and campaign promises, whats the loving point of anything?
1.) Once they lose power, they lose power hard. Look at California

2.) There is always the hope of a resurrected VRA.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Nonsense posted:

:laffo: if Non Senator Beto runs for President because he was on Ellen.
I know it's your gimmick, but Donald Trump is president. The idea that the highest office is limited to governors, generals, and Senators is pretty thoroughly shot at this point.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

Kai Tave posted:

Serious question but what's the usual turnaround for something like getting caught out in a flagrant smear campaign to paint Robert Mueller as a rapist?
Honestly? There might not be one. It was so poorly considered and executed that pursuing it would hurt Mueller's reputation more than the original slander.

I mean, it got shut down almost immediately on the fringes of fascist Twitter. Mueller might not even know who Wohl is, let alone what he did.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

friendbot2000 posted:

Dude, he knows what Wohl did and who he is because he referred it to the FBI lol.

Good thing I said "Mueller" and not "the FBI" in my post then, huh.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Yeah remember that Kav replaced Kennedy who voted to gut PPACA, while Roberts upheld it.

Also remember that one of the best places to attack PPACA was the individual mandate, which Roberts saved but is now gone thanks to our lovely friends in congress.
Yeah, there's three big reasons why you probably shouldn't worry about an ACA repeal from SCOTUS.

1.) It's a bad decision from a bad judge that will almost certainly be overturned even in the relatively conservative 5th district. Even a judge whose okay with repealing ACA isn't going to be eager to hear it. Which is important because:

2.) The composition of the court hasn't changed since the last time ACA came in front of it. If everyone votes like they did last time, and Kavanaugh votes the ACA down, you still have a 5-4 decision.

3.) The immediate need for a response through a divided Congress means the easiest solution will be to put the mandate back in place. Seriously, you can't just invalidate a whole law like this, it's such a bad decision guys.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

eke out posted:

Lambert can't stop telling us about how no one cares about random nobodies like the campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, national security advisor, etc
I feel like we had this exact same conversation about the Mueller investigation during the last public sentencing.

You know, last week, when we found out that Cohen committed crimes and lied to Congress on the order of Trump, and that Mueller had the receipts.

Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

The scuttlebutt in the other thread is that Rosneft is no longer owned by a country, and that the Middle East expert was spotted at the appeal, so more likely the KSA sovereign fund.

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Tibalt
May 14, 2017

What, drawn, and talk of peace! I hate the word, As I hate hell, all Montagues, and thee

eke out posted:

true, technically all we know is that Michael Dreeben and Zainab Ahmad happened to return to their main office at the exact time you'd expect from someone leaving the DC courthouse

We can easily clear this up. Maybe they were having lunch, so we just ask thEEEYE WAIT A MINUTE, poo poo

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